Parks down in straight sets to an awful player. She's basically unbettable. If there was EVER going to be a match she wins, that's it. Arango has been awful this year. She has no serve. Lost 4 of 5 tournaments in straight sets, mostly blowout sets, in the first round to subpar players. But she has no problems with Parks lol. Parks has to get a whole new team around her. No reason to be losing matches like that. Gets blown out too
Parks thinks she is an Instagram model/influencer with clout and fame...what a shame the women's game has become over the past several years...outside the top 16, there should be some sort of cut off from the WTA where they play on a completely separate tour, and let the top 16 have their own type of premier league from week to week.
2 unit play -
Same parlay as before except also Ruud -500
+1075
Parks was the first leg so since she lost and there are a bunch others just gonna double dip in this parlay. -5 units today if it loses, but the action is concentrated at the beginning of the week. These other matches are lower variance - Volynets, Frech, Siniakova, etc you know they have solid baseline ability. Rune, Ruud, and Lajovic are playing on a slower hardcourt in Acupulco vs inferior players with limited weapons. Lajovic is playing a guy 700th something in the world. Tiafoe is a little risky, but Max Purcell doesn't have a lot of talent from the baseline and is not a guy that does well on a slower hardcourt
-35.22 units. Brutal loss last night as everything in the rest of that parlay hit except for Frech. Woulda been a +20 unit gain. Definitely overestimated her there. -300ish is just too steep for her to lay. I'm not nearly doing as bad as the results look. But it's a small mistake here and there too often and it's adding up. Fine line between a big loser and a big winner. It is what it is. There aren't many matches where I'm very confident in and losing though ... the ones losing are generally speaking the ones I like the least in the parlays. Woulda coulda shoulda though gotta turn it around.
2 unit play -
Wang -1.5 -155
Pegula -800
Parry +1.5 -450
Saville +1.5 -360
Rune -425
Draper -425
Haddad Maia +1.5 -375
+459
You're right about Parks. I mean I haven't been one to back her all year, but that you can't possibly find a better spot to win a match. Arango has no serve, really no power from the baseline just moves the ball around, and you got a fairly quick court. Yet, Parks gets rolled. Amazing how horrendous her rally tolerance and returning is. Just tries to hit through you except misses a lot so if you just keep getting the ball back in play an error comes. There are players who you can't just try to beat horizontally you have to beat vertically - bring them into the net - like Munar for instance on clay lol classic guy that eats up guys who do nothing but try to hit past you and have no drop shot, slice, etc. Parks got propped up a bit temporarily because she's black obviously like Gauff and for whatever reason the media is obsessed with black female athletes. I don't care what color you are if you can play you can play, but you need to earn it. Parks at least conducts herself well and doesn't throw tantrums. Her game has no substance though. And unfortunately with a lot of women it is about clout, particularly Americans, and after any type of success they become Osaka and care way more about building their brand than tennis
The top 20ish in the women's game is quite strong. Even after the top 10, I'd say players like Muchova, Haddad Maia, Paolini, Pavlyuchenkova, Kalinskaya, Kasatkina, Krejcikova when healthy and in rhythm, Svitolina, Navarro, etc are all pretty good players and are gonna beat players they're supposed to a high percentage of the time. They can also play well on different surfaces. Alexandrova, Samsonova, Keys, etc are more polarizing. But you get outside of that and I agree it's hard to find anyone reliable. There are a few players I'll take depending on the surface and matchup - like Collins on a hardcourt will usually beat inferior competition, or Siniakova is a likely winner vs anyone outside the top 50. But overall players have obvious weaknesses like a terrible serve, no rally tolerance, lots of errors, or are 1 surface players, etc
-26.04 units after hitting that 5-1 parlay yesterday. Finally caught a break. Saville down match point in the second set and came up with a miraculous winner. Quite frankly overdue for something like that imo.
2 unit play -
Collins -425
Rune -310
Draper -285
Navarro +1.5 -350
Ana Pav +1.5 -525
+238
-11.02 units. Big day yesterday with a 10 to 1 parlay hitting after a 5 to 1 hit the day earlier. Collins was down a set and 5-4 needing to break to stay alive and won. Then Pav later was down 4-0 in the 2nd set after dropping a set and miraculously came back and won in a breaker. Gotta catch a few breaks sometimes
Yeah Riera was down 4-0 in set 2 and won 6 straight to come back. Thought she would win at that point. Stylistically, I thought she would give Hibino problems as Hibino really doesn't do anything that spectacularly, but she didn't play up to par. Coulda taken her to just win 1 set with a reduced payout and it woulda been a winner at around 8-1. That's what makes betting so complicated. Always different plays you can make and one might hit and the other may not.
Lot of opportunities in March with Indian Wells and Miami. I think you can make plenty of money in tennis, but you have to spread it out and have a big bankroll. I think +100 units in a year is doable. So if you're betting say 10k a parlay as the 2 unit play and 5k a the 1 unit play that's 500k a year. We'll see how it ends up though.
Well that was ugly. But when you parlay it only counts as one loss. Some days you just don't have it and that's why parlays work better in tennis. You limit the losses on days like this. Can definitely make up units in the next few days.
Kerber was just a bad matchup for Martic. Giorgi not a good matchup for Boulter actually on a slower surface because she stylistically plays like Boulter except can hit even bigger. I think the Andreeva play was fine I'm surprised she lost to Volynets. Andreeva just doesn't have enough pop in her groundstrokes.
Draper losing in the first round to OConnell lol. Didn't see that one coming. Men's tennis is brutal though. That's why we're not gonna have plays on many men's matches this week
Got a chance for a huge day tomorrow. Play suspended so one match left in the men's and 2 in the women's. Probably comes down to Yuan which honestly looked like a flip from what I saw. Gracheva sucks, but Yuan was getting no free points on serve and wasn't out hitting Gracheva so it could go either way. Tomorrow there is a great opportunity for a big parlay based on the matchups so it'll likely be a big turnaround or very disappointing
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