Pav has a very favorable matchup. Serves way bigger than Trevisan. Hits bigger. Way more accomplished on a hard court. She is still working out some kinks, but she should power through Trevisan. Xiyu Wang has no excuse to lose to Qiang Wang who hasn't played a tennis match in who knows how long. She was never a player with any big weapons. Xiyu serves bigger and hits bigger. She's only losing if she makes a million errors, which may happen. But anytime you get a player not having played in months you really have to look to auto fade. Paolini is played Boulter. Boulter is just very inconsistent. If you get her moving she'll make errors. Paolini let me down last week, but she can win a set here. She's overall a better player than Boulter. Boulter may have a little higher ceiling vs big name players if plays a really high level, but floor is a lot lower. Lastly, let's hope Tomjlanovic doesn't let me down. This is the sketchiest of the 4, but Dalma Galfi is just garbage. Failed to quality for the last 2 slams. She's got a solid serve when it works. But in terms of rallies Tomjlanovic is much better. More accurate, moves better. Can get easy points on serve herself. She hasn't gone deep in a while and I don't think she signed up for this event to come out and lose in the 1st round. Because let's face it, being from Australia I am a bit surprised she entered here. When I see a 300 price and the dog doesn't have any real advantages I tend to lay it. Galfi gonna need a big serving day
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Analysis of the others -
Pav has a very favorable matchup. Serves way bigger than Trevisan. Hits bigger. Way more accomplished on a hard court. She is still working out some kinks, but she should power through Trevisan. Xiyu Wang has no excuse to lose to Qiang Wang who hasn't played a tennis match in who knows how long. She was never a player with any big weapons. Xiyu serves bigger and hits bigger. She's only losing if she makes a million errors, which may happen. But anytime you get a player not having played in months you really have to look to auto fade. Paolini is played Boulter. Boulter is just very inconsistent. If you get her moving she'll make errors. Paolini let me down last week, but she can win a set here. She's overall a better player than Boulter. Boulter may have a little higher ceiling vs big name players if plays a really high level, but floor is a lot lower. Lastly, let's hope Tomjlanovic doesn't let me down. This is the sketchiest of the 4, but Dalma Galfi is just garbage. Failed to quality for the last 2 slams. She's got a solid serve when it works. But in terms of rallies Tomjlanovic is much better. More accurate, moves better. Can get easy points on serve herself. She hasn't gone deep in a while and I don't think she signed up for this event to come out and lose in the 1st round. Because let's face it, being from Australia I am a bit surprised she entered here. When I see a 300 price and the dog doesn't have any real advantages I tend to lay it. Galfi gonna need a big serving day
Why on earth did I take Tomjlanovic. I said it was the sketchiest part and I refuse to listen to my own advice. Cannot lay juice on her vs anyone unless it's maybe a player outside the top 150. Good lord. Maybe she comes back, but doubtful
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Why on earth did I take Tomjlanovic. I said it was the sketchiest part and I refuse to listen to my own advice. Cannot lay juice on her vs anyone unless it's maybe a player outside the top 150. Good lord. Maybe she comes back, but doubtful
Because there is time before other matches, gonna post another 2 unit play -
Pavlyuchenkova -400
Paolini +1.5 -260
Murray -350
Korpatsch +1.5 -125
Pays 3 to 1. Win this and we still come out a solid winner today. I like this play a decent amount. If it loses, it's probably Korpatsch losing in straights, but I think that's too good of a price vs a very unproven player
1
Because there is time before other matches, gonna post another 2 unit play -
Pavlyuchenkova -400
Paolini +1.5 -260
Murray -350
Korpatsch +1.5 -125
Pays 3 to 1. Win this and we still come out a solid winner today. I like this play a decent amount. If it loses, it's probably Korpatsch losing in straights, but I think that's too good of a price vs a very unproven player
Getting roughed up a bit. Down 9.14 units in parlays. 21.45 individually. The good news though is that the 9 units really isn't that much given many plays I make are beefier parlays. Hit a few here and there and it changes quick.
2 unit play -
Volynets -300
Zhu -260
Kerber -130
Blinkova -155
Liu +1.5 -325
Hontama +1.5 -310
Yafan Wang +1.5 -185
Pays +1332
0
Getting roughed up a bit. Down 9.14 units in parlays. 21.45 individually. The good news though is that the 9 units really isn't that much given many plays I make are beefier parlays. Hit a few here and there and it changes quick.
Kerber is cheap chalk. She is working into form, but Bronzetti just hasn't done anything in a hard court and isn't gonna outhit Kerber.
Gotta make Zidansek beat Volynets. She's been terrible. Volynets rarely beats herself and is more vulnerable when up against players who outhit her. Not the case here.
Zhu usually beats lower ranked players. Preston has played a few matches vs respectable players lately and hasn't won anything of them. Got beat by Hibino who is a poor woman's Zhu.
Blinkova is a better player than Niemeier. That simple really. Much bigger game off the ground. Needs to be more consistent on serve, but Niemeier just doesn't move as well or hit as big. Blinkova can be totally awful at times though so it is risky, but she did win this matchup easily in Miami last year.
Liu has a bigger game than Fruhvirtova. Serves and hits bigger. Should be good for 1 set. When she does lose, it's a lot of 3 setters anyway.
I think Wang and Korneeva are pretty even. Korneeva is a bit hyped up, but Wang can serve and hit solidly from the baseline. With this match in Asia bit of an adv for her also. 1 set is doable.
Hontama I just have a feeling will at the least be very competitive vs Schmiedlova. She's questionable on serve certainly, but she's good from the back of the court. Moves well and solid ball striker. Schmedilova is a decent ball striker herself, but I'm concerned she'll have trouble hitting through Hontama here. She has an adv on serve, but Hontama can return well. Feels like 3 sets but on Hontama to take 1. With this match also being in Asia should give her an adv.
Odds are we lose obv, but it's 13-1 and I think it has a reasonable shot
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Analysis -
Kerber is cheap chalk. She is working into form, but Bronzetti just hasn't done anything in a hard court and isn't gonna outhit Kerber.
Gotta make Zidansek beat Volynets. She's been terrible. Volynets rarely beats herself and is more vulnerable when up against players who outhit her. Not the case here.
Zhu usually beats lower ranked players. Preston has played a few matches vs respectable players lately and hasn't won anything of them. Got beat by Hibino who is a poor woman's Zhu.
Blinkova is a better player than Niemeier. That simple really. Much bigger game off the ground. Needs to be more consistent on serve, but Niemeier just doesn't move as well or hit as big. Blinkova can be totally awful at times though so it is risky, but she did win this matchup easily in Miami last year.
Liu has a bigger game than Fruhvirtova. Serves and hits bigger. Should be good for 1 set. When she does lose, it's a lot of 3 setters anyway.
I think Wang and Korneeva are pretty even. Korneeva is a bit hyped up, but Wang can serve and hit solidly from the baseline. With this match in Asia bit of an adv for her also. 1 set is doable.
Hontama I just have a feeling will at the least be very competitive vs Schmiedlova. She's questionable on serve certainly, but she's good from the back of the court. Moves well and solid ball striker. Schmedilova is a decent ball striker herself, but I'm concerned she'll have trouble hitting through Hontama here. She has an adv on serve, but Hontama can return well. Feels like 3 sets but on Hontama to take 1. With this match also being in Asia should give her an adv.
Odds are we lose obv, but it's 13-1 and I think it has a reasonable shot
Kerber is too fat and slow to compete in today's game. Her return to the game will be short lived as tournaments will stop offering her wildcards once they realize she can't win a match,,,and I highly doubt her ego will go down to the challengers to earn points.
Autofade Kerber until further notice.
MAGAm Yisrael Chai
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Kerber is too fat and slow to compete in today's game. Her return to the game will be short lived as tournaments will stop offering her wildcards once they realize she can't win a match,,,and I highly doubt her ego will go down to the challengers to earn points.
Getting roughed up. I will again reiterate though that most plays early in the week are parlays of 5-1 or better often. So when I'm down like 15 units it can just be one parlay in instances. It's streaky. I think overall too I have to go with my gut feeling a little more than logic. Blinkova should beat Neimeier, but any time she is a favorite she loses. Kerber would easily have beaten Bronzetti 2 years ago, hell she'd be -1000 in that match, but now she's a disaster. She has nothing on her shots and gets whipped around. Hontama was somewhat of a bad beat - loses in 2 breakers and 2nd set she was serving up 5-4. Other ones just bad plays.
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Getting roughed up. I will again reiterate though that most plays early in the week are parlays of 5-1 or better often. So when I'm down like 15 units it can just be one parlay in instances. It's streaky. I think overall too I have to go with my gut feeling a little more than logic. Blinkova should beat Neimeier, but any time she is a favorite she loses. Kerber would easily have beaten Bronzetti 2 years ago, hell she'd be -1000 in that match, but now she's a disaster. She has nothing on her shots and gets whipped around. Hontama was somewhat of a bad beat - loses in 2 breakers and 2nd set she was serving up 5-4. Other ones just bad plays.
Down 11.14 units in parlays. 26.35 individually. Again, the bottom line is what we're concerned with because I believe that's the optimal way to bet. Some days you just don't have it and lose 3 of 6 in a parlay, but next day you hit it. If you're just betting parlays you come out ahead. Also, you got matches that overlap time wise so it makes more sense and you don't have to put in a million bets. However, we'll continue to track both.
2 unit play
Badosa -225
Potapova -550
Monfils -275
Xinyu Wang -325
Yastremska +1.5 -285
Martic +1.5 -210
Pays +507
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Down 11.14 units in parlays. 26.35 individually. Again, the bottom line is what we're concerned with because I believe that's the optimal way to bet. Some days you just don't have it and lose 3 of 6 in a parlay, but next day you hit it. If you're just betting parlays you come out ahead. Also, you got matches that overlap time wise so it makes more sense and you don't have to put in a million bets. However, we'll continue to track both.
Badosa - Schnaider has very questionable rally tolerance. Not a dominant serve. It's the type of match Badosa tends to win. She is on the comeback, but this is a favorable matchup vs someone who is error prone and doesn't dominate on serve
Potapova - Should have no problems with Errani. Errani has no serve, way less power, and old. How does she win vs some people? Well few errors and moves decent and some players just self destruct
Monfils - rare men's play. He's playing in France against a guy with little hardcourt experience. Coboli won a couple matches vs sub par opponents at the Aussie open and got hammered by DeMinaur. Monfils is the better athlete with a better serve and can hit bigger when he chooses. Also a better returner. Hopefully, he shows some pride and doesn't dog this one. If he does, he should follow Kerber into retirement
Wang - Hibino just doesn't have anything to scare you with. Not a big serve. Not huge on groundstrokes. Respectable rally tolerance, but she can spew at times. Wang is a fairly big hitter. Match is totally on her racquet. Avoid a bunch of terrible errors and she wins, but we'll see
Yastremska - Anytime you believe in her she self destructs. But this line has her even with Andreeva. Andreeva has little experience. Not dominant on serve and isn't gonna outhit Yastremska. Prone to errors at times. Also lost to Yastremska in straights at Wimbledon qualies last year. This is very winnable for Yastremska. And we're just asking for a set from her. In other words, to do what she normally does which is redline it for one set and then the other 2 sets how knows what the hell happens
Martic - I think this is a decent matchup for her. Siniakova has a 2-0 in h2h, but Martic has been playing better. She choked to Tomjlanovic at the Aussie Open. She also nearly beat Coco Gauff at the end of last year. But she has a much better serve than Siniakova. That's a big advantage here. And she has variety and touch around the net. Not a bad returneer either. Siniakova doesn't usually win in straight sets vs players on her level and Martic quite frankly I believe is better on a hardcourt. Siniakova runs around well and hits the ball on the move great, but way too many double faults and forehand errors. Martic's only noticeable exploitable weakness is just getting outhit. But that comes into play vs the biggest hitters on tour in the top 20. Siniakova has a great backhand, but questionable forehand. Bottom line is we just need Martic to take 1 set here vs a player who dumps a set all the time even when she wins
We lose this one, and I'll probably start skipping the analysis till we win one. lol
1
Analysis -
Badosa - Schnaider has very questionable rally tolerance. Not a dominant serve. It's the type of match Badosa tends to win. She is on the comeback, but this is a favorable matchup vs someone who is error prone and doesn't dominate on serve
Potapova - Should have no problems with Errani. Errani has no serve, way less power, and old. How does she win vs some people? Well few errors and moves decent and some players just self destruct
Monfils - rare men's play. He's playing in France against a guy with little hardcourt experience. Coboli won a couple matches vs sub par opponents at the Aussie open and got hammered by DeMinaur. Monfils is the better athlete with a better serve and can hit bigger when he chooses. Also a better returner. Hopefully, he shows some pride and doesn't dog this one. If he does, he should follow Kerber into retirement
Wang - Hibino just doesn't have anything to scare you with. Not a big serve. Not huge on groundstrokes. Respectable rally tolerance, but she can spew at times. Wang is a fairly big hitter. Match is totally on her racquet. Avoid a bunch of terrible errors and she wins, but we'll see
Yastremska - Anytime you believe in her she self destructs. But this line has her even with Andreeva. Andreeva has little experience. Not dominant on serve and isn't gonna outhit Yastremska. Prone to errors at times. Also lost to Yastremska in straights at Wimbledon qualies last year. This is very winnable for Yastremska. And we're just asking for a set from her. In other words, to do what she normally does which is redline it for one set and then the other 2 sets how knows what the hell happens
Martic - I think this is a decent matchup for her. Siniakova has a 2-0 in h2h, but Martic has been playing better. She choked to Tomjlanovic at the Aussie Open. She also nearly beat Coco Gauff at the end of last year. But she has a much better serve than Siniakova. That's a big advantage here. And she has variety and touch around the net. Not a bad returneer either. Siniakova doesn't usually win in straight sets vs players on her level and Martic quite frankly I believe is better on a hardcourt. Siniakova runs around well and hits the ball on the move great, but way too many double faults and forehand errors. Martic's only noticeable exploitable weakness is just getting outhit. But that comes into play vs the biggest hitters on tour in the top 20. Siniakova has a great backhand, but questionable forehand. Bottom line is we just need Martic to take 1 set here vs a player who dumps a set all the time even when she wins
We lose this one, and I'll probably start skipping the analysis till we win one. lol
Badosa retired. The rules depend on the book. At bovada, any match that isn't completed is no action. On betonline, a match is graded if at least one set is complete. So on betonline, this would be a loss. However, I am using the bovada odds and bovada rules. So this wager will be graded as a win should the other 5 hit. Just as an fyi.
Also regarding totals, I've thought about them. I almost included one last week with Kalinskaya/Zheng. It's tricky in terms of how to play them if you're using parlays. I suppose you could include them in lower unit parlays. I have a decent feel for them.
Feel like I should have done Galfi +1.5 vs Wang. She was undervalued. I'm surprised she doesn't win more often because she has a good serve and some power. That matchup was pretty even so I left that one out on the table. Badosa we dodged a bullet. She just isn't match fit. She looked like she was going to cruise through the 2nd set and hit a brick a wall
1
Badosa retired. The rules depend on the book. At bovada, any match that isn't completed is no action. On betonline, a match is graded if at least one set is complete. So on betonline, this would be a loss. However, I am using the bovada odds and bovada rules. So this wager will be graded as a win should the other 5 hit. Just as an fyi.
Also regarding totals, I've thought about them. I almost included one last week with Kalinskaya/Zheng. It's tricky in terms of how to play them if you're using parlays. I suppose you could include them in lower unit parlays. I have a decent feel for them.
Feel like I should have done Galfi +1.5 vs Wang. She was undervalued. I'm surprised she doesn't win more often because she has a good serve and some power. That matchup was pretty even so I left that one out on the table. Badosa we dodged a bullet. She just isn't match fit. She looked like she was going to cruise through the 2nd set and hit a brick a wall
Got screwed over by Monfils. Sick part was I was originally got put Alexandrova in place of Monfils, but Alexandrova has been so unreliable as a favorite and I thought that if Monfils is gonna do anything at all that's a match he wins.
So now 13.14 units in parlays. -23.85 units individually. Actually made up a couple individually since 4 of 5 hit.
2 unit play -
Potapova -175
Mertens -275
Wang -200
Zhu +1.5 -285
Pays +334
Was very close to adding Volynets +1.5 and that would have won and beefed this up. No analysis tonight because who cares we just need to pick up a win
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Got screwed over by Monfils. Sick part was I was originally got put Alexandrova in place of Monfils, but Alexandrova has been so unreliable as a favorite and I thought that if Monfils is gonna do anything at all that's a match he wins.
So now 13.14 units in parlays. -23.85 units individually. Actually made up a couple individually since 4 of 5 hit.
2 unit play -
Potapova -175
Mertens -275
Wang -200
Zhu +1.5 -285
Pays +334
Was very close to adding Volynets +1.5 and that would have won and beefed this up. No analysis tonight because who cares we just need to pick up a win
Got lucky in the Potapova match so we finally found a winner. Still disappointing because the previous night should have been a win. Cost 12 units there. And last night I was a bit conservative wanting to pick up a win. Had I included a 1 unit play I would have hit a big parlay for probably 15-1/20-1 since literally every lean I had won
-6.46 units in parlays. -15.85 units individually
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Got lucky in the Potapova match so we finally found a winner. Still disappointing because the previous night should have been a win. Cost 12 units there. And last night I was a bit conservative wanting to pick up a win. Had I included a 1 unit play I would have hit a big parlay for probably 15-1/20-1 since literally every lean I had won
Dolehide is too high variance that was a bad play. However, Kenin lost anyway so I guess it didn't matter. Wtf is she doing out there? She can't beat Heather Watson now? Watson is easy pickens for any solid top 50 players. She's just unbettable at this point. When she's off she can't make basic returns and complete basic serve plus ones or anything. You'd think the floor is high enough to never lose to someone like Watson, but for Kenin the floor is a bottomless pit.
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Dolehide is too high variance that was a bad play. However, Kenin lost anyway so I guess it didn't matter. Wtf is she doing out there? She can't beat Heather Watson now? Watson is easy pickens for any solid top 50 players. She's just unbettable at this point. When she's off she can't make basic returns and complete basic serve plus ones or anything. You'd think the floor is high enough to never lose to someone like Watson, but for Kenin the floor is a bottomless pit.
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