Something to ponder on today. Rakhimova takes on Birrell tonight in the final round of qualifying with the Aussie listed as a +175 dog.
I like Rakhimova a lot as a player right now but she is the top seed in qualifying so should be in line for a LL spot. As discussed, there have been multiple withdrawals and I don't know how many withdrew after the draw was released but I know of one for sure off the top of my head which is Emma Raducanu.
All Rak needed to do to earn the LL spot was make it to the final round of quallies, which she did in an uninspiring 6-4, 6-3 win over a 15 year old Chinese wildcard in a match that I would assume Rak put very minimal effort into.
In other qualifying news, the 2nd and 3rd seeds lost which makes 4 seed Gabriella Ruse as the next highest player to reach the final round, giving her the potential for earning a LL spot. Would need to research more though to find out how many players have withdrawn since the main draw was released. Her opponent is currently a +450 dog. I would assume that any significant line movement towards the underdog would be a strong indicator to play it.
The next highest seed (5) in the finals is our busy busy girl Sramkova after she beat Zidansek for the second time in 3 days. The 6 seed is Baptiste followed by SST at 7. Srammy and Baptiste play after Rak and Ruse so if either of the higher seeds wins then their position in the LL pecking order will move up before their matches start.
Later today I'll look into the draw more and the status of withdrawals but if anyone else has information to share please do!
Odds update:
- Birrell is down to +150
- Lu is still at +600
- Then there has been a lot of movement in the Sramkova match against P. Kudermetova with that match basically a pickem now.
Given all of this, my theory would be that Rak gives much less than 100% effort in what would otherwise be a somewhat competitive match. Ruse also gives less than 100% but 50 or 60% effort might be good enough for her to win anyways. Also it looks really really bad from a match fixing perspective for a player of her caliber to lose to an inferior player like that.
Then that brings us to Sramkova. If Ruse (and/or Rak) wins, Sram would be in line for a LL spot if she loses. If that ends up being the case I can't imagine a situation where a player is more likely to tank than Sram would be here given the fact that she's coming off of back to back finals appearances and straight into qualifying here. She needs rest, not another competitive match.
Srammy's Elo ranking would imply that she should have about a 75% chance of beating Polina yet she is only at -120.
I'll take a look at your match if you'll give me an opinion on my thoughts/matches. If you don't have an opinion that's fine, I'll still look at yours lol.
Last time we played Birrell she took an uninspired dump. Can not play her in this situation. The line movement is encouraging for the dog. As for Sram it was very impressive for her to win the title and less than a day later beating Zid (injured in third set). Hard to go against her at this point. Quailes with the possibility of advancing as a lucky loser is an added dimension that makes it even tougher to pick the winner.
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