US OPEN

I wouldn´t play that parlay at those odds, ghostrunnin, don´t think it has any value

Thoughts on the over 20 games for Penn/Az (-115)  match???

Thoughts on the over 20 games for Penn/Az (-115)  match???

Thoughts on Azarenka OVER 20?

Wow!!   Reduced juice on 5dimes has Azarenka -260.....line was just -460 10 mins ago.....wonder what happened?!?!

Azarenka has been traded at -150 in Betfair lol. Her camp has a history of leaking info when she´s not fit and it has reflected in betting markets quite a few times, so beware, she might be injured

wow huge line drop on aza

She´s back down around -290 at Betfair. Maybe just panic and snowball effect after some rumour

Oh wow...good info.

doubt she is injured this match is going 3 sets

Bet, followed my heart and bet on the two czech girls.. Bol gasquet or wawrinka?

Lets finish off thesw williams sisters!!!! Cmon!!!!!!!!!

Great call on Hradecka/Hlavackova, Bomba, I didn´t watch the match but I´m very surprised Williams went down so easily, well done!

No chance for Pennetta and Li to nick a set, both bets lost 0-2 -6 units


YTD: 76-128-2 +90.87 units
Staked: 680; Returned: 770.87; ROI: 13.36%


I will wait till all books put up their props for semis today, back at lunch time if I find something worth a bet. GL folks

Will for your post bet,, bol!!

*wait

YTD: 76-128-2 +90.87 units
Staked: 680; Returned: 770.87; ROI: 13.36%

Three props where I see value grouped in two small bets for today:

 

Djokovic to win 3-2 against Wawrinka @7 (Lads) and total match tiebreaks two or more @6 (WH) (2/10 each for a total of a 4/10 bet)

Today will be a sunny day in NYC, wind won´t be strong and this should favour servers and make players hold easier. I expect a close match between Djokovic and Wawrinka, but I didn´t take Stan to win, because I think he will come up short. Beating an out of form Murray is one thing and taking out Djokovic in a SF of a Grand Slam is another. Took instead Djokovic to win in 5 and WH has come up with the same odds for two or more tie-breaks than usual, but I do think in USO (final set tie-break) these odds should be lower, specially in dry and sunny conditions.

Nadal vs Gasquet first set correct score Nadal 7-6 @11 or Gasquet 7-6 @23 (Ladbrokes)  (1.25/10 and 0.75/10 each for a total of a 2/10 bet)

Small bet here. Gasquet could be competitive for a while if he turns up in the same aggressive mode he did against Ferrer. I think first set will be closer than people think, although that I believe that even if RG clinches it, Nadal will eventually steamroll him. These two have played two tiebreakers, both in the first set and both have been won by Gasquet.

GL folks

so nadal gasquet first set tie break yes at 7.50

Thanks KK, yeah it was basically the same play, I thought about playing it safer and just take "tiebreak in the match" prop at @2.75, but I thought, first set was the best chance to hit that one, pity.

Djokovic won in 5, only 1 tb in ND vs SW match and first set was not a tiebreak in Nadal vs Gasquet, so overall 12-2-2 = +8 units and record stands:

YTD: 77-129-2 +98.87 units
Staked: 686; Returned: 784.87; ROI: 14.41%

Still checking all props offered, back at lunch time if I see something worth a bet. GL folks

An advice for today´s junior singles final:

 

Kokkinakis to beat Coric @1.80 (Pinnacle)  4/10

I like both players and I don´t have a clear opinion yet on who´s going to have a better pro career, but I do think that at this point of their development, on hard court surface, Thanasi should have too much for Borna to handle. The Australian Kokkinakis has a big game, his serve & groundstrokes are very powerful for a junior and the Croatian Borna is a kid with a lot of talent and who knows how to keep the ball in play but his shots don´t have the same weight than his rival´s, so I can see him being overpowered today in many points. These two already played in Australian Open SF´s and Thanasi won easily 6-3 6-2, both have developed their games since then, but I still expected Kokkinakis to be priced around @1.55-@1.60 so these 1.80 odds are pretty appealing to me

Thanasi was not good enough to take advantage from a winning position and Coric´s heart and game were too much in the end. Bet lost, -4 units

YTD: 77-130-2 +94.87 units
Staked: 690; Returned: 784.87; ROI: 13.75%

Just one small bet to enjoy tonight´s final which I believe has decent value:

 

Nadal to win 3-2 against Djokovic @6 (Ladbrokes) 2/10

 

Conditions will favour another long and grueling match. Forecast for 17pm in NYC is: Around 22ºC, 51% humidity, 9mph wind (which get more noticeable in Arthur Ashe court) and as time goes by, it will get cooler and more humid, balls will get heavier and conditions slower, which will favour longer and exhausting rallies. If match goes to the distance, into a fifth set, I believe Nadal has a clear edge mainly because of confidence (16 matches won in a row) and also Nole could get tired earlier than Rafa because of his match against Stan Wawrinka.

I´ll be back to update this result and final YTD record, but this is my last tip of this 2013 tennis season, I will try to be back for next year Australian Open here in Covers. Hope you enjoyed the ride, I´m glad if I´ve helped some of you and I wish you all good luck, folks


BnR

Bet what do you think of this prop bet? Over 225½ Minutes at -115 I'm thinking 4 sets might be enough to cover. When they played in the final in 2011 the match went 4 sets but it was 250 minutes long and the last set was 6-1.

Yeah I think it´s a decent catch, begginerboy. I also like another prop in Unibet:

Any player to get a time violation @1.95


Both guys take too much time for serving and the match should be close, long and with quite a few key points. Enough for at least one of them being given a warning imo.

GL whatever u decide

Hi rokchur. Humidity is a relative measure, It rises at night because it gets cooler. It´s a % of the max amount of water that air can hold for a cerrtain temperature. Cool air can´t hold as much water as warm air, so relative humidity gets higher as the temperature goes down. Therefore, the longer the match goes, the slower conditions will become.

It´s true Rafa prefers it faster, but I was just talking about endurance and confidence in a possible fifth setter, it´s the reason why I think his odds to win in 5 have value.

Hope I made myself clearer with this

Rafa was too good in the end, pity Djokovic couldn´t clinch that 3rd set, bet lost -2 units.


Final YTD 2013 tennis season:

Total tips: 210;
W/L: 77W - 131L - 2V;
Staked: 692 units;
Returned: 784.87 units;
Profit: +92.87 units
ROI: 13.42%


I hope to be back next year for Australian Open. You can always drop me a line in my blog www.betnotroulette.com or on twitter.
That´s all, good luck, folks!