US OPEN

Good luck today.  Some strong dogs on your ard.  I was actually surprised you didnt jump on Monfils.

I will say I dont particularly like your reasoning on Vekic over Halep.  Halep showed in Cincy and New Haven she could grind out tough wins and still come back the next day and win.  Here she has an extra day of rest.  Obviously IMO very little chance Halep retires in a Grand Slam match like she did in a dinky Bastad tourament.

Also not surprising Halep struggled round 1 as the nerves can get to some of the younger players but they rebound in round 2 (see Sloane last night).  Also Halep might have been a little tired having won New Haven and then traveling to NYC.  I just see Halep settling in a returning to form of the past 2 weeks.

Hope you have a great day

I still don't get it, but thanks for at least trying to explain it to me. Good luck today!

Thanks jeff, you could be right in every thing you say, but I have my reasons as well. I didn´t take Monfils because first, Isner is a better player than ever in my opinion (I´ve written that here a few weeks ago before he knocked out Djokovic when I took him to win a set), second because Monfils´ health is a concern to me at the moment and another small details like he´s not scheduled in AA where, according to his words, he doesn´t feel as comfortable because of the wind and the space to run around behind baseline which would fit Monfils better imo.

Concerning Halep, you make very solid points, but I´ve always loved trends when trying to find good spots in tennis, I´m not saying Halep will retire, I´m pretty sure she won´t, but she gave some strange signs in R1, imo she was even a bit lucky to go through that 2nd set and Vekic has enough game to overpower her is she´s not at a good level.

Thanks for your input and have a nice day as well

I will try to be clearer.


Stake: From 1-10. Let´s say my unit is 100€ and my max bet is 1000€, a 4/10 bet means I´ve staked 400€ on it.

The higher the value I see on the odds offered is, the bigger is my stake on that play. But of course, I can´t go 10/10 (full stakes, max bet according to my staking plan which is around 4-5% of my bankroll) on a +1000 shot even though I think it should be priced +500 (enourmous value, 100% overpriced in this case). Why not? Because the risk of the play being a loser is very high! So I always have to keep a compromise between the value of the odds and that risk of not hitting the play.

Hope this helps a bit more

Great day today, 4-2 and +20.14 units won with Duval pending. Vekic and Mattek lost, but Evans, Nara, Bautista and Knapp cashed in. With trixie lost yesterday, record stands atm:

YTD: 71-116-2 +91.58 units
Staked: 626; Returned: 717.58; ROI: 14.63%

(Duval and outright 3rd quarter props pending)



I´m off to bed and I will have a busy day tomorrow, so I´ve just taken my bets and I´ve posted them in my blog a while ago and now here:

Hingis/Hantuchova to beat Errani/Vinci @3.50 (Bet365)   4/10

Two reasons to try this one. First, Italian Fed Cup captain has confirmed rumours about conflicts between Vinci and Errani, who have always been very close friends, so it looks like that friendship is struggling and this might explain their poor results lately and second, Errani´s words in her press conference after his loss against Pennetta. She looked devastated and drained emotionally, red eyes after being crying and she stated that pressure has got the better of her at the moment, it was quite a sad sight. I don´t think she can recover in less than 24 hours.

Ram to beat Granollers @3.38 (Pinnacle)   3/10

I didn´t watch their R1 matches, but according to what I´ve read, Marcel struggled a lot and got very lucky to defeat Zopp, who is a good player himself, but he´s been out first half of the year and he should be very far from top form while Ram, despite I´m pretty sure Fognini didn´t put too much of an effort, played a pretty good game. Enough for me to try him with small stakes here.

Zheng to beat Suárez @3 (Ladbrokes)   3/10

I feel this one will be a very close battle, Carla has defeated easily two players she should win, but the real tests start here. Jie has the consistency to cope with Carla´s great baseline game and the flat shots to make her struggle. I only see a little advantage for Suárez here and certainly not enough to justify this lower than 1.50 price

GL folks

Thx and gl with you plays....I'm with u on Ram and Zheng as well.

I too liked Ram initially but it's hard to read much into R1 struggles.   Many who should win easily but struggle and make it through tend to fare better in R2.  Granollers fits this mold.

Ram in poor form heading into the US Open getting dusted in the first round in 4 straight tournies draws a Fognini who doesnt fare well on the hard courts and seemingly didnt put much effort into the match (heretofore known as pulling a "Klizan"). 

Marcel did beat Dimitrov and Rosol (losses to higher ranked Murray and Haas) on the US hard courts.  I dont see him losing to Ram today.  Early match on Court17 means the crowd likely wont be heavily pulling for Ram either.

I really like Zheng though.  CSN didnt impress me at all against Coco.  Coco played horribly, trying to force off-balance winners 8 feet beyond the baseline and still had a chance to win.  Looking for Zheng to ride the momentum of the Venus win

and thanks for the E/V info!

best of luck today!

Thanks vankiep, GL to you as well.

Thanks jefff. You could be right about those R1 struggles not meaning too much sometimes, but we have already seen opposite examples in this tournament (Tomic, Davydenko, Querrey -I was v close to advise Mannarino but chickened out in the end, meh-), so I still think Ram is a good bet at that price, but of course I might be wrong.

Hope that info on Errani is useful to us, many thanks for your input and best of luck to you as well!

Bet.... Thoughts on haas/ Lu matchup today. Thanks greatly appreciated.

Njn, I took some on Lu +2.5 sets at evens, Haas is too short for my taste, but I´m not 100% confident on my reasons, so I didn´t advise it. GL whatever u decide

Thanks bet... Greatly appreciated

Ram has never made it to the 3rd round of a GS which definitely makes me wary of him winning today.  Then I looked at Marcel who's only made it to the 3rd (once US Open 2011) and 4th (French 2012) in his career. 

I can see Ram's serve and volley game giving Marcel fits.  I'm kinda anxious to see this match now.  I'll be rooting for ya

No probs, njn, GL!

If Ram plays at a good level, he´s not a comfortable match-up for Granollers imo. Marcel is not a great returner and when you take time away from him by rushing the net or hitting flat shots, he struggles, specially on his forehand side. When Marcel is not in form he tends to serve worse and hit a fluffy ball off his forehand, and Ram can attack both things. Of course if Ram is not sharp, he´s not good enough and he hasn´t enough firepower to dismantle Marcel off the baseline, I feel it will be a matter of Rajeev being or not sharp enough to execute because I don´t think we will see an A-version of Granollers. Thanks and GL today

looks like ram is going to lose the 3rd set....hopefully he will pull this out

0-3 yesterday, not good, Zheng and doubles tip were bad estimation, gotta improve

YTD: 71-120-2 +78.58 units
Staked: 639; Returned: 717.58; ROI: 12.29%

(outright 3rd quarter prop pending)


I´ll be back 1 hour before tennis starts with some tips, see you all later

eagerly awaiting your picks for today bud

Three tips for today, all in WTA:

Cornet +7 games over Azarenka @2.11 (Pinnacle)  4/10

Alize is playing the best tennis of her life, even though I hate going against Azarenka in these kind of props, I feel this line is too high, I would settle it at +6 games

McHale +1.5 sets against Ivanovic  @3.05  3/10

Looks like McHale has come into life again at home soil after a very tough year with mono. She played well against young talent Svitolina, feeded off the crowd support and got a tight win there. She has enough game and a forehand good enough to dictate points and make Ivanovic run, so I like her chances of nicking a set at least.

Knapp to beat Vinci @3 (Betfair)   3/10

Simple, Knapp is in great form, back at her best and Vinci has left some doubts to me lately after her win in Palermo. I have the feeling Karin has a great chance at winning today.

Thanks all, GL folks

2-1 yesterday +7.59 units

YTD: 73-121-2 +86.17 units
Staked: 643; Returned: 735.17; ROI: 13.40%

Three tips for today in Flushing Meadows (weather permitting, because forecast is not good at all):

 

Baghdatis to beat Wawrinka @3.36 (Pinnacle)  3/10

Marcos came out of nowhere to give a masterclass against Anderson in R2, one of the most impressive performances if not the best this year at USO. Can´t help but riding that momentum, even though I know it won´t be easy to repeat.

Benneteau +2.5 sets against Berdych @2.08 (Pinnacle)  3/10

Berdych was average against Kudla and Benneteau disposed easily Chardy, I expected an offer below evens for this bet as I think it´s more likely than not TB drops a set here, therefore I´d gladly take this +108

Stephens +6.5 games against S.Williams (Pinnacle) @1.88  3/10

SW will want to have revenge and she will win, I have little doubt about that, but Sloane is playing impressively and should keep it within this spread imo, I would have settle this line in +6.

GL folks

Shitty day yesterday 0-3 -9 units


YTD: 73-124-2 +77.17 units
Staked: 658; Returned: 735.17; ROI: 11.73%


I´m reviewing again today´s card but I don´t like anything so far. If I see something worth of an advice I´ll be back one hour before matches start. GL folks

You don't like Riske?

Sorry Learner, I wasn´t around.

Tipsarevic blew that match, pity it would have been great to have an odds-on player with an outright prop of @29. Outright prop lost, -3 units. so record stands:


YTD: 73-125-2 +74.17 units
Staked: 661; Returned: 735.17; ROI: 11.22%


No bets for me today, I see fair odds all around, so I´d rather watch the games and have some bets in-play. GL folks

YTD: 73-125-2 +74.17 units
Staked: 661; Returned: 735.17; ROI: 11.22%

Two advices for today´s WTA QF and another one for tomorrow´s doubles, because I´m not sure I will be available tomorrow during the morning:

 

Pennetta to win 1st set against Vinci @1.98 (Pinnacle)  4/10

 

As I always say, I love trends and Vinci has been a slow starter in all her matches:

She was down 2-4 and 3-4 30-40* against Babos.

She lost the first set against Safarova.

Up until 3-3 against Knapp she made too many errors and didn´t mover her feet properly

She was down 1-4 against Giorgi as well.

Pennetta is playing better than her, and she has traditionally started very strong in her previous matches, so I´d rather trust her when she´s fresh, because I fear that if match goes to the distance, Roby will have an advantage there.

Azarenka to win 2-1 against Hantuchova @5.54 (Pinnacle)  2/10

 

After her struggles against Cornet and Ivanovic, why not a threepeat? Azarenka with doubts in her game and Daniela played a great match against Riske, she´s playing well enough to make Vika sweat, but I´d be surprised if she manages to knock her out, so this 2-1 prop sounds quite tempting in my opinion

Stepanek/Paes to beat Bryan/Bryan @3.86 (Pinnacle)  3/10

 

Match will be played tomorrow, but Radek/Leander is one of the few couples which are not intimidated by the Twins and they are good enough to bust them out in a Slam imo. Bryans showed being vulnerables as they were very lucky to get past Pospisil/Nestor, they were down 7-6 4-2 if my memory is correct

GL folks

very curious why not hantuchova to win a set ? u can get good price like +275.

Yeah kevinkim, you could be right, but as I wrote in the preview, I think Hantu pushes Azarenka, but I´d be surprised if she´s able to beat her in a big match like this, so I´d rather risk to lose the bet if Hantuchova wins for better odds on the 2-1 Aza. GL sir

maybe hantu 1 st set?