YTD: 62-107-2  +59.92 units
Staked: 567; Returned: 626.92; ROI: 10.57%

US Open ATP Main Draw preview

 

First quarter

 

Djokovic has an easy R1 against the talented shotmaket but totally out of confidence Berankis, even though he has just won 3 matches in Winstom-Salem, winning only four games in his M1000 matches at Montreal/Cinci doesn´t bode too well for his chances to make Nole sweat. R2 against Becker/Rosol should be easy as well. A

A possible R3 showdown against Dimitrov could get interesting at least for a set or something like that, but Grigor hasn´t been good/mature enough to build on that win against Nº1 in Madrid and he has had a mediocre last few weeks, I can´t expect more from him at the moment, but I hope he will surprise me and plays Nole tough in case this match happens.

In R4, against whoever might come out on top off there, everyone should be an easy task as well, and I will keep an eye on Del Potro to see if he has recovered fully. If so, we could have a cracker in QF´s. Betting-wise, I´m not too interested in the outright betting in this quarter.

 

 

Second quarter

 

Murray looks to have a very easy path into the QF´s, (I even think he shouldn´t lose a set in route to that stage if he stays focused enough) in which he should meet one out of Berdych, Wawrinka or Anderson in my opinion. Odds seems to agree with this, so I can hardly advice any kind of prop here. If Murray´s QF rival plays well enough and Murray hasn´t been tested and hasn´t lost a set until yet, taking him to win a set should be normally a great bet.

 

 

Third quarter

 

This is the one where us punters should try to find some good outright bets. Totally wide open section in my opinion. Ferrer, Janowicz, Raonic and Gasquet are the four main favourites to reach semifinals out of this quarter but none of them are playing well enough to be trusted on in my opinion. Most likely I will take a gamble on a couple of players here at high odds, this quarter could easily give a surprising semifinalist.

 

Fourth quarter

 

Federer is a big question mark, I´m not sure if he´s reliable any more to count on him reaching the QF. R1 and R2 should be easy against Zemlja and Giraldo/Berlocq but Querrey in R3 and if Nishikori reaches R4 could be a very different story, both should make things hard for current version of RF in my opinion.

Nadal arrives to NYC as the player in-form, no doubt, but his draw is not kind by any means. Isner in R4 could be a very tough one, and Harrison/Pospisil/Davydenko/Dodig are no walk in the park either for a first week. I still have to think about this one, but I´m leaning towards fading Nadal if he meets Isner at the moment.

US Open WTA Main Draw preview

 

First quarter

 

I know this one is getting old, but I will write the same thing that I wrote in my Wimbledon WTA Main Draw preview: The way Serena has been playing lately, the question should be “Who will play against her on QF from this quarter?”. And the next question should be “Does it really matter?”. Pretty much says it all about my interest betting-wise in the outright market of this section. It would be great if Serena gets busted out early for the sake of having a more interesting tournament, but I can´t see that happening, to be honest.

 

 

Second quarter

 

A.Radwanska and Li are the two top seeds, but I will spend some time taking a look around to see if I see something worth apart from them. Normally Aga should be recovered after her withdrawal in Cincinnati due to her grandfather passsing away, and she has looked more solid in last two tournaments, so I´m not sure if it´s a good idea to go against her. With Li, as always, you never know what she´s going to offer. She might go very deep in the tournament or kicked out spraying 40 unforced errors in R1.

Lisicki is too short priced for my taste, I want to see whether Keys is recovered or not from her shoulder, if Cirstea is ok after that abdominal strain,  Jankovic has had a decent lead-up and could finally have a deep run in NYC again like the one she had in 2008 and there are a handful of good players who could get hot during ten days and upset the field here like Mattek-Sands, Makarova or Pavlyuchenkova.

 

 

Third quarter

 

This one is a mess, Halep is the in-form player, but she could easily pay the busy weeks she´s having prior to this event like she paid  for it in French Open, where she had to retire in R2 against Pennetta, so I won´t put my money on her. On paper, this looks like a weak enough field for either Wozniacki or Errani to take advantage of and coming out on top, but I´m not fully convinced with any of them current form, so I will pass this one up most likely.

 

Fourth quarter

 

Hard to look past Azarenka if she´s healthy/fit enough (always a question mark to me after the problems she had in Carlsbad and her recent deep run at Cinci) here unless she runs into a hot Kvitova on QF´s or Stosur playing at an excellent level again against her like in past US Open QF´s. Odds agree with this view, so I can´t advice any good bet here.

YTD: 62-107-2  +59.92 units
Staked: 567; Returned: 626.92; ROI: 10.57%

A few recommendations for 1st round in Flushing Meadows, I don´t like today´s card in WTA, tomorrow should be much more interesting, I will write a post for WTA first round tomorrow with a few bets:

 

Rhyne Williams +2.5 sets against Davydenko @1.86 (Pinnacle) 5/10

In my opinion, you can´t trust on Davydenko to play at a good level for a sustained period of time at this point of his career despite his last solid results. Rhyne has some game, good serve, booming forehand and he´s improving and growing as a player, I expect him to raise his level from his last performances and pose a challenge to Nikolay today. I will play it safer and just advise the option of Williams taking a set, although I wouldn´t be surprised if those who are taking 1.2 for ND sweat that bet a lot.

Kyrgios +2.5 sets against Ferrer @3 (Ladbrokes) 3/10

What to say about Ferrer´s tennis at the moment? Awful last showings against Bogomolov, Harrison and Tursunov won´t have made any good to his confidence. He can lose a set in this current form to many players and young gun Kyrgios enjoys playing on hardcourts and he has the shots to take advantage of a subpar Ferrer to have more than this 33% of taking a set in my opinion

Istomin to beat Almagro @3.14 (Pinnacle) 4/10

I know last couple of matches from Istomin were dissapointing but if he picks it up from somewhere close to where he left it against Djokovic in Montreal, we will have an excellent bet here. Almagro´s form is awful, his confidence is very low at the moment and although he will try to show up here in NYC, he´s clear fade material in my opinion.

Dodig to beat Verdasco @2.71 (Pinnacle) 3/10

I don´t think that retirement against Russell in Cincinnati will have any effect here on Dodig here. Ivan has had 2 weeks to recover from that and I still think that Verdasco, despite having a last good tournament past week, is not a guy to trust on after not having played in Montreal/Cincinnati, because he didn´t want to play qualies.

Soeda to beat Baghdatis @3.65 (Betfair)  3/10

Even though I love his style and I know he normally raises his game for Slams, I don´t have too much respect betting-wise for Marcos Baghdatis these days. What has he done to be so low priced? I believe Go Soeda will make him sweat and if he doesn´t get to tight in the end, I think he stands a great chance at advancing here.

And an outright prop:

Tipsarevic @29.04 , Tursunov @51.94 or López @41.76 to win 3rd quarter  (Pinnacle)  (1/10 on each for a total of a 3/10 bet)

As I wrote in Men´s preview, I think that on this 3rd quarter, the main favourites are nor reliable enough so I will take this gamble at big odds.


GL folks

Great preview man...i agree with most of it.

Hi Betnotroulete,

You have like 3/10, 5/10 etc against your plays. What do they mean exactly?

Nice write up btw

Learners

Thanks bettingaddict, GL sir

Hi Learnersrealm. It means the stake I´m using on each play. I will try to make it clearer:

I use a staking plan from 1 to 10, and it´s always a compromise between the value (difference between my estimation and the odds offered by bookmakers) I see on the odds and the probability of the outcome NOT to happen.

Bigger value -> bigger stake
Higher % NOT to happen -> lower stake

So they higher odds have normally a lower stake, not because they have lower value, it´s just because there´s a bigger chance of it being a lost bet.

Hope this have helped, if not, I will try to explain it better, English is not my first language

Cheers

BnR

Nice write ups man. GL!

Thanks TedHJLee

2-1 yesterday, with more than 6 units won, I will update YTD after first round finishes.

On today:

A few recommendations for WTA first round matches today:

 

Glushko to beat Petrova @2.5 (Ladbrokes) 4/10

I mean, what has Petrova done to deserve being priced this low? She doesn´t play since Wimbledon, she has lost her last 5 matches and she has had some problems with her hip in past weeks. This number is just a matter of being named Nadia Petrova, but I will gladly take Glushko at these odds, if Nadia suddenly appears to be in-form then I will tip my hat at her and say too good, but I don´t think that´s a likely scenario to happen today

Gibbs to beat Pennetta @2.62 (Pinnacle) 3/10

Pennetta off a retirement in New Haven because a small problem on her back, faces a girl I like on Nicole Gibbs. Gibbs will make her work a lot to win points and Flavia will have to be sharp to defeat her. I really don´t trust Flavia too much at this point of her career if the match gets tough as I think this one will, even less with that question mark about her back being fully healed.

Tatishvili +1.5 sets against Ivanovic @3.08 (Pinnacle) 3/10

We´ve been writing about Anna Tatishvili here for a few weeks now and she´s playing very solid tennis. Ivanovic has some up and downs and I think Tatishvili could be good enough to nick a set here, certainly give her more chances than this 32%.

Svitolina to beat Cibulkova @3.5  (Betfair)  3/10

Cibulkova with a couple of bad losses recently against Hercog in Cinci and Zakopalova in NH. Svitolina is a girl destined to live in top20 for most of her career and I think she´s ready to beat a Dominika if she isn´t sharp from the word go.

Beck to beat Vesnina @3.26 (Pinnacle)  3/10

Not sure Vesnina is as good as her ranking shows, to be honest. Beck doesn´t have many weapons, but she´s a very solid player and she´s good enough to make this one much closer than these odds say.

Babos to beat Vinci @7.50 (Betfair)  2/10

I might be throwing away my money, but I have the feeling Babos will either lose in 1 hour or come very close to beat Vinci if not pull the upset. Roberta has lost her last two matches too easily against Jankovic and Suárez and although Timea is still quite inconsistent, she has game and power, and she has been winning a few matches in last couple of tournaments, if she´s on she could trouble the Italian today, no doubt.

GL folks

2-4 in WTA yesterday with small profit and Istomin cashed as well so up more than 11 units yesterday (I will updated YTD after 1st round is completed)


On today:


Only three advices for today (we still have pendant Soeda vs Baghdatis betting tip):

Mattek-Sands to beat Makarova @2.84 (Pinnacle) 4/10

I have this one much closer than these odds. Makarova is ranked 20 odd places higher, but BMS is a very dangerous player when she´s in form like it´s the case. Makarova is a very tough rival, but she´s also prone to be inconsistent, so I expect a very close fight here and I have to side on the US player at current offer.

Nara to beat Cirstea @3.81 (Pinnacle)

I´m not sure about how Sorana is travelling at the moment. After Toronto final she had some niggle and retired against Pavlyuchenkova and that struggle against Fichman looks ugly for her chances to go deep in the tournament. Nara is a steady player that is rising in the ranks because she´s quick, tough off the gorund and has solid groundstrokes. In my opinion she could be good enough if Cirstea is off her game as it looks like it could be the case

Trixie of Hewitt to win 3-2 @6.5, Wawrinka to win 3-2 @6.5 and Melzer to win 3-2 @6.5 (Ladbrokes)  (1/10 on each double for a total of a 3/10 bet)

I like this one quite a bit, so I will give it a try. All three similar priced players around @1.4ish mark, all of them have opponents that should push them but all should have an advantage in a 5th set, either because physical endurance, or for having an edge fighting spirit or in Melzer´s case, because of recently earned confidence.

GL folks

nara is ?/10

Sorry, kevinkim, Nara is 3/10. If I make a typo or I miss something in the write-up, you can always check out my blog  https://www.betnotroulette.com/

Cheers

thx a lot!

Looking good BnR! How much are you playing on the triple, compared to each double?

Thx KevinKim. GL

Livan33, didn´t take the treble being these 5 setters, it´s very unlikely to hit, winning two of them would already be awesome! GL

Thanks BnR, good luck!

isnt dodig -155 against davydenko a steal????? i would put the line on dodig at -400 at least with how he played and how davydenko played

Slickfox: I see -149 now, I´d rather take Dodig than Denko at that price, for sure. Problem I see is line is rising and Dodig comes off a retirement and a tough 5 setter, he might have some injury issues

Update after R1:

5W - 6L +14.49 units (3 units on outright 3rd quarter prop pending)

YTD: 67-113-2  +74.41 units
Staked: 603; Returned: 677.41; ROI: 12.34%


Trixie lost easily so in R2 so far I´m -3 units down with BMS and Nara pending, I will take a further look at new matches today, but didn´t like anything last night, back later

I finally spotted more value this morning with a fresh body&mind than I thought, let´s see:

Evans to beat Tomic @3.5 (Betfair) 3/10

Tomic was on verge of a defeat against Ramos , he played poorly and looked desinterested at times and I don´t think Evans will pose a lesser challenge. Daniel has that good sliced backhand to handle Tomic´s slice&dice game, he moves well and I´m sure a similar gameplan to the one he had against Nishikori and attacking the forehand side when possible will give him very good chances to come up with a win today

Bautista-Agut +2.5 sets against Ferrer @1.92 (Pinnacle)  4/10

Simple here, despite Ferrer improving against Kyrgios, I think he´s fade material, at least at winning easily. Bautista already showed in Wimbledon that some of his flat shots on fast surfaces give him some edge and chances over Ferrer´s style and he also disposed pretty easily Bellucci in R1.

Duval to beat Hantuchova @3.30 (Betfair)  3/10

Hantuchova avoided a 4th defeat in Grand Slam first round this year after her win against María Sánchez, but she struggled a lot in first set so I don´t think that´s a good indication of her form beins good at all. Duval with one of the upsets of the tournament so far, she´s only 17 yrs old but she has a good game and future and she ended up holding her nerves and playing pretty well against Stosur

Vekic to beat Halep 5.42 (Pinnacle)  3/10

If Halep still has gas left in her tank (both mentally and physically speaking), she will win, but I will try to follow that trend of a few weeks ago when she ended up retiring in R2 against a Pennetta after a struggle in first set in previous round against Peterson where she showed there was something wrong with her, like she did against Watson the day before yesterday. Vekic is still not ready to make big noise, but her future is very bright and has wonderful strokes to make Simona run a lot and struggle physically if she can get the match last a couple of hours.

Knapp to beat Vesnina @3.52 (Pinnacle)  3/10

I still think Vesnina is not as good as her ranking shows and Knapp is in quite good form. She had a good run in New Haven last week and played pretty well in patches against Wozniacki, I can see this one much more levelled than these odds suggest.

That´s all, GL folks

Bet.... Any thoughts on jankovic/ kleybanova???? I like jankovic but don't no too much about this kleybanova... Was gonna throw jankovic in a parlay. Thoughts greatly appreciated.

Njn, Kleybanova´s case is special, you can read more about her battle against cancer if you google it. I couldn´t see her yet after his comeback, according to a couple of reports she played pretty well against Puig, but not sure if I can trust them, to be honest. If she plays close to her peak level (top 20 player), of course she´s value, but I prefer to watch her play after what she has gone through before risking any money. GL whatever you decide

Thanks bet.... Greatly appreciated.

couple similar picks, hope that works out for us

bol roulette

what you think of this parlay? kohlschreiber ml, isner ml, nadal 3-0

Thanks n3g, GL today

Davopnz, I wouldn´t go against it, as there are rumours about Monfils´ health, but if Gael is fit, he´s a tough match-up for big servers, he has a great reach and anticipation so he is tough to ace and he puts a lot of serves back. GL with it