US Open - The Last Dance

Amanda & Rune to win a set - NO (2.10) 

Taylor Tawson is now ranked #1 in the world in double, and I can't see them lose a set against the teens. Shelter is also in great form, the two played mixed double in US open back in 2023 and reached the semi-final against real double players, and only lost 1 set in 4 matches. 

Amanda is 1-3 in Mixed and 0-5 on hard in doubles. Rune 1-4 mixed and haven't played much double lately, he last his last 3 hard court matches, all as favorite.  He won some double matches with Tsitipas back in 2022.

Shelton has played over 100 double matches (53-54), played 2 matches last week in Toronto and won both with Fils before they withdraw. 


Townsend who is 23-4 this year on hard (Won Washington, Dubai and AO) looking really good and have a good chance to win the US open this year (Final 2022,  QF 2023, SF 2024) but I think she want to win this mixed, her first mixed title and this year is a bit extra with all the top single players. 

I don't think Rune and Amanda or most of the single players cares about this at all, and I'm sure a US player will win. I think we will see Shelton / Townsend vs Draper/Pegula in the final. 

Riedi + Seidel 

Seidel 2-0

Riedi 2-0

I can't see these two lose in the first round, they should both qualify to the main draw. 

Seidel has topped her form just in time for US open, she reached R16 last week in Cincinnati beating Navarro & Kessler, she had to qualify so she played a lot of matches, but at age 20, I don't see recovery as a problem here. She is also 2-0 H2H, both wins in two set. Von Deichmann is a clay player that haven't had much  success on hard court she is 3-15 on hard court, most of her wins is on ITF level. 

Leonardo Riedi reached a #117 ranking but due to injuries he is now at #522, but is now back, and don't think it will take long before the 23rd year old is in the top #100. 
He has an impressive indoor record of 64-27 with 7 titles on the challenger tour, and just started to play more on the ATP tour before his injury. 
 
He beat Harris and Curreno-busta both 2-0 in the qualifer to Cincinnati last week before he lost the 1st round to Tien in a close match. 

Before his injury he beat Rune, Nakashima, Fonseca, Coric, Coboli, Goffin, Gasquet, Kokkiniakis, Michelsen, Muller, Struff, Jarry & Machac, so real talent. 

He now plays Luka Pavlovic, who has never played any ATP match on hard court, last time he played on hardcourt was 3 years ago and some future matches. His an OK clay player on the challenge tour, can't see him win this. 

As always, a very good & in-depth write-up. Thanks, and GLTU.

Yeah Shelton and Townsend are a no-brainer in this spot. They should dominate.

@glenjean

 Thanks! I’ll read these through before posting. I’m getting a headache trying to read my post, I type too fast and just dump my thoughts, so there are lots of grammar and spelling mistakes. 

@bringit

Galan + Landaluce | 1.85

Will add write-up later tonight, but taking this early as the odds will drop. 

Got Riedi at 1.40 and 2-0 at 1.95 yesterday, today it was 1.26 and 1.70. Seidel was 1.36 ML today 1.19..

Landaluce won the US Open Juniors in 2022 and was ranked the #1 junior in 2023. He’s now 19 years old and a great talent.

This is his first time playing the main US Open. Earlier this year, he qualified for the main draw at the Australian Open, but lost in the first round.

I think he has a good chance to qualify to the main draw here as well. He’s 10–5 on hard courts this year and had a couple of solid wins in Cincinnati the other week. He also beat Grenier in straight sets the last time they played on hard courts, back in 2024.

Grenier didn’t look convincing in the first round, nearly losing to Jalika, who came in with a 1–9 record. He’s already lost 12 matches on hard courts this season (17–12 overall).

In the other match, I was really impressed by Galan in the first round against a tough opponent. He reached the third round here in 2022 but missed out on the main draw last year. I think he has a strong chance this year and should get through 2–0 fairly comfortably. I don’t rate Maloney, no ATP experience and this is his first Grand slam qualification at 25.

playing Galan 2-0 as well think the under is good as well in this match. 

Amanda & Rune to win a set - NO (2.10)  

Riedi + Seidel  

 Seidel 2-0 

Riedi 2-0 

Galan + Seidel + Ito 

Kubler over 20.50 + Duckworth over 20.50 

Small bet on these, starting soon.

Pavlos Tsisipas ML (odds: 9) To win a set (4) and to win 2-0 (15)

Echargui Moez from Tunisa has a history of losing these type of matches when his this big of a favorite, his on a 13 matches wining streak at the moment, what better way to end it but in Greece against a Tsisipas. 

dropped to 8.50

Today, 13:30
ATP ChallengerATP Challenger Hersonissos 4, Greece
Echargui, MoezvsTsitsipas, Pavlos
Winner Tsitsipas, Pavlos
8.50
Stake
157.88 $
Potential Win
1341.98 $
Ticket ID: 2569917155046994413

Great work! Thanks for sharing!! 

@Djr357

 Thanks 

Pavlos takes the 1st set  


Pavlos Tsisipas  win a set (4)  

Bjorn _Borg ........... I am wishing & rooting for your success with Tsispas winning this 3rd set. Regardless of the outcome your capping is very much on point. You had this match handicapped perfectly.

You playing any mixed today? I'm thinking maybe the Italians over Drapegs in the final.

@glenjean

 That would have been something extra for sure. I only needed him to win a set to make a small profit of this game, but after he won the first set and was up 40-0 in the first game, he was down to 2.10 to win ML (from 11 in the first set), so I was able to hedge for a good price. :)

@bringit

 I have been back and forward with these mixed today, but very tricky with this new format. The Italians won the title last year and is 20-4, but not sure they will win in this format. I rate Collins on serve higher than Errani, and Harrison beat Vavassori not to long ago + with the home crowd, I lean more the Americans now. 

I said before I thought Draper and Pegula to be in the final, but Iga is so good, good on serve and really good at net, so she can win easy points on Ruuds serve. 

I wanted to play over, but my bookie don't offer that, so will wait and see. What are you thinking?

@Bjorn_Borg

 I'm still thinking on them. Of the teams remaining the only ones I watched yesterday were the Italians second match and a little bit of Collins second match. Collins was definitely serving well from what I saw. Heck, if she keeps that up she might be able to make a splash in the singles draw.

Might go Pegula/Draper + Collins/Harrison to win a set. 

Will see after the qualifiers. 

No qualifiers today, so they will now play Thursday and Friday instead! 



Guo H. / Panova A.  + Fernandez 

Fernandez comes in great form after winning Washington. She had some setbacks in Montreal and Cincinnati, which wasn’t too surprising, as she wanted to manage her schedule ahead of the US Open. She should be fresh here at an event she loves — having won it in both 2021 and 2022.

Sramkova, on the other hand, hasn’t looked the same this season. She had her best year in 2024 (46–25), winning her first WTA title in Thailand and beat some good players. This year she’s 18–22, having played less due to an elbow injury that began at the start of the clay season. She went 2–4 on clay, which is her favorite surface, and has started the hard-court swing 3–3, but hasn’t shown the same level as last year.

In the other match, Guo & Panova are 16–5 this season, ranked #20 and #22 (career highs for both). They won Adelaide at the start of the year and Hamburg in the summer, both times as underdogs, and recently reached the final in Cincinnati. I think the bookies continue to underestimate them. Meanwhile, Kichenok & Sutjiadi have only played twice together — and lost both matches. Guo & Panova are the better pair and in form. 

Guo H / Panova A 2-0 (odds: 2.0)

Guo H. / Panova A.  2-0 
Guo H. / Panova A.  + Fernandez  

Also got some bigger longshot parleys 

Suspended
Open
Grand SlamUS Open
1.45
Cazaux, ArthurvsClarke, Jay
0:0
 
Total games under 20.50:0
Yesterday, 20:00
Open
Grand SlamUS Open
1.72
Basilashvili, NikolozvsHuesler, Marc-Andrea
 
 
Total games over 22.5
Yesterday, 20:00
Open
Grand SlamUS Open
1.23
Zhukayev, BeibitvsSvajda, Zachary
 
 
Winner Svajda, Zachary
Suspended
Open
Grand SlamUS Open
1.27
Garin, CristianvsTrungelliti, Marco
0:0
 
Game handicap Trungelliti, Marco (+5.5)0:0
Total Odds
3.895
Stake
322 $
Potential Win
1254.47 $
Ticket ID: 2570014181495542116

&

Yesterday, 18:00
Open
Grand SlamUS Open
1.57
De Jong, JespervsMayot, Harold
 
 
Winner De Jong, Jesper
Yesterday, 18:00
Open
Grand SlamUS Open
1.68
Gigante, MatteovsWong, Coleman
 
 
Winner Wong, Coleman
Yesterday, 20:00
Open
Grand SlamUS Open
1.74
Jacquet, KyrianvsKubler, Jason
 
 
Winner Kubler, Jason
Yesterday, 20:00
Open
Grand SlamUS Open
1.41
van Assche, LucavsWu, Yibing
 
 
Winner Wu, Yibing
Today, 00:00
Open
Grand SlamUS Open
1.34
Blockx, AlexandervsCoppejans, Kimmer
 
 
Winner Blockx, Alexander
ComboBOOST-BP
X1.05
Total Odds
9.104
Stake
100 $
Potential Win
910.48 $