Thoughts on hedging Fritz to win his quarter (meaning beat Nadal)

Hey all,

Was wondering your thoughts on this (and I know hedging is an -ev move so why bet it if you're going to hedge, but here it was a free bet). I had a free $250 bet I put on Fritz to win his quarter of the draw since I liked his Eastbourne form. It pays $1350. 

I'm weighing hedging, but hate the nadal -290 I'm seeing on DK. What do you guys think of Fritz's chances? He hasn't had a lot of court time but still seems to wear down a bit in third sets. I guess my current lean is let it ride initially and if Fritz can win the first set then live bet Nadal for the hedge. 

Still would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the last american man's chances of pulling the upset. Of course he beat Nadal at Indian Wells, but from what I hear nadal was hurt and nadal is a different beast when he can sniff the final stretch of a major (he started off a bit shaky in his first few matches, but has been winning in straights recently). FWIW Indian Wells was hardcourt and this is grass, which should favor Fritz more, but the best of 5 element adds more doubts to my mind in a match against nadal. 

I think he has a very reasonable chance of winning. But its really all your preference. I almost always hedge to an extent on future bets, it just sucks hedging a scenario where u gotta bet minus money. If it was me, I'd hedge a little so you can at least win some money since it was a free bet. Also. keep an eye out on live bets. If Nadal goes behind early, you could possibly get more money on him at a better price. 

Put enough to win $150 or 200 on Nadal ML.  

Win win situation. 

I have $200 to win $60k on Fritz winning it all. Still trying to figure out if I let it ride or bet $10k on nadal. Typically don’t hedge bets though. Good luck with whatever you choose.

Let it ride,,,Fritz has the form at the moment to be able to beat Nadal today,,,The first set will be the key...as crazy as it may sound, I think it's quite possible that Fritz either wins the first set 76 or 62 or 61...this is assuming he serves perfectly and Rafa comes out a bit shaky and nervous.

A lot of people I believe have Fritz as their Longshot pick...this is the match he has to win,,,this was the match that was projected for him by all that backed him,,,he must realize this is like playing for a spot in the finals so the question is does he poop his pants or not.

Best idea would be to wait and see...if Rafa loses the first set then you'll likely get a spot to hedge your bet...

BOL to all Fritzbackers  

I’m suggesting you let it ride. I have Fritz at +13,000 to win the whole enchilada. I’m letting it ride until the end. Boom or bust.

@Caj727

 I have a measly $25 on fritz haha but payout is 1200 overall had some at +8000 and another at +2800.  I'm thinking the hedge is nadal to win wimby at +175 currently. Figure if he beats fritz its likley he wins at that point. idk 

@invest4profits

 but i may just do $25 to cover it, or like packers said wait and maybe hedge live

Thanks for the thoughts ended up getting a decent hedge +105 after Fritz won the first and +400 during the 4th set, so it worked out ok (I did have a small future on Fritz to win the whole thing) and just also would love to see a tennis resurgence in the US so a disappointing outcome. 

felt in a way that Nadal’s injury really mentally messed Fritz up he had so many put away chances in points where he got stuck between going for the winner and playing a totally safe shot and it put him in a no man’s land where he still committed unforced errors without the advantage of a large chunk of winners.  He said coming in that it was easier, strategically, to play Rafa because he knew he was the dog and would have to play aggressive rather than defensive to have a chance. We saw this in the first set, but after Nadal’s injury (to use a cliche) he started playing not to lose rather than to win.