Posted:
#1
Today's semifinal spots where my tennis model and the no-vig market disagree (start times UTC, prices from last night):
- Fritz vs Vacherot (Basel, 14:00): model gives Vacherot 36.6%, market 27.2%. Biggest gap on the card at (3.75). He already beat Rune here this week.
- Struff vs Lehecka (Basel, 16:00): Lehecka 71.1% vs 64.3% at (1.56).
- Alcaraz vs Medvedev (Vienna, 14:00): Alcaraz 73.5% vs 66.7% at (1.48).
- De Minaur vs Zverev (Vienna, 15:30): Zverev 70.2% vs 70.0% at (1.41). No real edge, model agrees with the market.
Since Oct 7 these model sides are 115-144 for +11.44u at flat stakes (ROI +4.4%, longshots above (8.00) excluded); last 7 days 35-44, -6.43u, so a cold week. Anyone backing Vacherot again?
18+ · Bet responsibly.
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