Posted:
#501
So the people that make millions at blackjack flat-bet right? 
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My tennis strategy THE ZONE.
Posted:
#502
Quote Originally Posted by Calvone:
So the people that make millions at blackjack flat-bet right?
Good comparison Calvone. Especially for the parlay side of things that get a similar returnSo the people that make millions at blackjack flat-bet right?
I will give you one stat for my parlays. Ive never dropped below an average of one win out of 3 over any given run of 100 picks. Doesnt sound impressive until you factor in the fact the average odds are around the 2.5 times stake mark. And if you only bet on two match parlays tailing my picks over the last 3 years since I started to focus on them. You AGAIN wouldnt know what it is to lose 7 times in row.
Tell someone on their way to Vegas to play blackjack. You are never going to lose 7 times in a row. And most of the time never even 4. And I think theyd be pretty excited. But I cant make that claim for a game of chance like Blackjack. But I can for tennis.
What people steeped in math always fail to realize is sports betting is different from casino math based type betting. There is the human factor. That I make a decision on. Im not just pulling these bets out of a hat because they fall into the zones pricing range. No, I do my homework on each opponent then make a decision. Theres more to it than the roll of a dice, turn of a card or spin of a wheel.
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Posted:
#507
Quote Originally Posted by Calvone:
Anyone who ingests all of the information presented and, then doubts the math, is NOT a math-based thinker.
Anyone who ingests all of the information presented and, then doubts the math, is NOT a math-based thinker.
Well I'm a maths and stats grad. And I haven't seen any maths presented. Just statements like he bets on both sides initially. And it's because I don't understand THEZONE
Oh and repeated comparisons to casino games
You really think all other cappers don't understand the human factor?
I don't question the picks just your undocumented claim to have made thousands recently which lets face it anyone could claim
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Posted:
#508
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:
Jules I don't play straight. I only parlay in real life. You need to keep that in mind. Look all can't see cant believe types like you have to throw your tuppence into the mix.Well I'm a maths and stats grad. And I haven't seen any maths presented. Just statements like he bets on both sides initially. And it's because I don't understand THEZONE
Oh and repeated comparisons to casino games
You really think all other cappers don't understand the human factor?
I don't question the picks just your undocumented claim to have made thousands recently which lets face it anyone could claim
At the end of the day PROFIT IS PROFIT. Don't knock it because 99% of sports bettors end the year in the red. I won't be with that party, that's all that really matters in the end.
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Posted:
#510
Ok one step at a time
You've stated you start a streak by betting say 5 units on the fave and one on the dog
Show me how that can ever result in a better result on either the individual match or the streak in question than only betting on one side
And use numbers not words. I bet you can't do it
BTW I do appreciate your always polite responses unlike most in this thread!
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Posted:
#513
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:
Ok one step at a timeYou've stated you start a streak by betting say 5 units on the fave and one on the dogShow me how that can ever result in a better result on either the individual match or the streak in question than only betting on one sideAnd use numbers not words. I bet you can't do itBTW I do appreciate your always polite responses unlike most in this thread!
I will elaborate later the objective is a profit if things get serious. I dont have to tell you what happens to average odds of 2.5 if you roll it up 5 times. And thats per unit.Ok one step at a timeYou've stated you start a streak by betting say 5 units on the fave and one on the dogShow me how that can ever result in a better result on either the individual match or the streak in question than only betting on one sideAnd use numbers not words. I bet you can't do itBTW I do appreciate your always polite responses unlike most in this thread!
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Posted:
#516
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:
I look forward to the mathematical elaboration ??
I look forward to the mathematical elaboration ??
01--1×2.5×2.5×2.5×2.5×2.5=97.65 units
This what I would recover if I ever get 5 consecutive losses while playing for parlays. You can look at it as a self inflicted juice.
You can indeed argue is it worth doing. Given I rarely even have 5 consecutive losses. Of course your mathematical mind can never accept that. There is no logic to my claim. BUT THERE IS REALITY.
Thats all I can say. For every 5 loss I suffer I will average 5 fold in profit. Its simply a winner Jules. Do you know how hard it is to pick 5 consecutive dogs in a row Jules???
Very, very hard. I have been over a year and a 1000 bets without it happening. YES IM SERIOUS. My longest gap between 5 losses was 14 months and 1300 bets. Maybe im due one because its been over 1000 bets now since the last one.
Maybe in your world you arent used to methods that have what I call a virtual limit. But in my world you had better get used to it.
what does this mean? A VIRTUAL LIMIT. Its simply a point that is breached so rarley it raises a method to grail like status. What it basically means Jules is everyone following this method and my staking has it made longterm.
You are destined to PROFIT. Which is the name of the game. Especially with ROLLING PARLAYS
Something disturbing me at the moment is how little interest the rolling parlay thread is getting. Half the world should be glued to that thread. Because as you will all soon realize it only goes in one direction the vast majority of the time. And it does it faster than any straight bet strategy ever could on favourites. With fewer bets.
So maybe I dont need the insurance bet. All it would mean jules is I recover a sizeable portion of my stake the next time I roll 5 losses. One the rolling parlay thread makes its first 100 units or 1000 quid profit. Watch it snowball.
I will be risking ever increasing amounts until an average win will represent what some people earn in a week. Its all coming Jules. Stay on the merry go round...
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Posted:
#519
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:
So you win 97 units for a streak of 5 lossesBut you betting system has you betting 5, 10, 20, 40, 80 on the favourites, all of which lose on the streak by definition. So you win 97 but lose 155!
Jules there is no SET amount for staking. I use instinctive staking. Depending on how I feel about the match at hand and the price of the match.So you win 97 units for a streak of 5 lossesBut you betting system has you betting 5, 10, 20, 40, 80 on the favourites, all of which lose on the streak by definition. So you win 97 but lose 155!
Example a few days ago I lost two in a row. 5 units then 5 units again. (See you didnt realize my first two bets stay the same) Then BECAUSE the most common losing streak is two. And I felt very confident about Strycova. I jumped from 5 units to 30.
Now yesterday AGAIN I lost two in a row with the morning matches on Bhambri at 5 units. And Herbert at 5 units. BUT on my next bet I only jumped to 10 units. There were two reasons for this. 1-- I didnt have too much confidence in Sock. BUT 2--More importantly, because I had just had two lots of 2 losses in a row. It was possible I was about to have 3.
This type of flexible instinctive staking on STRAIGHTS. is essential to succeed longterm. You respond to the circumstances. You dont just mechanically bet the same everytime.
So in essence im not using a mechanical doubling up martingale system. I stake what I personally feel is the appropriate amount under the current circumstances. And because two lossed in a row followed by 2 or more wins in a row IS SO COMMON. Its a winning proposition especially for rolling parlays. On the other thread Ive now bet on just 11 parlays and won 6 of them. I only need a 33% strikerate longterm to profit.
Its a winner all the way jules. A few years from now every sceptic will be scratching their head. Part of the reason im documenting the Zone on here is to prove to people who think longterm winning is near impossible how wrong theyre.
And people like you who think math explains everything will be in for the biggest shock.
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Posted:
#525
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:
So you make it up as you go along. And call it THE ZONE
So you make it up as you go along. And call it THE ZONE
I'll just watch your thousands roll in from now on I think. Best of luck
At his average betting odds he would be close to 20 units up after 120+ games? I think this is astounding. Who else has a record like this? So, if you parlayed them and/or the potential losers it could be great. I have done it a couple of times myself before in years past---it can be pretty sweet ROI.
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