Maya Joint is only -140 against old ass Serena......... Is this some type of joke?

The books have got to be joking with this line. 

So let me get this straight........... Joint, who is an active player is only a -140 favorite against a Serena that hasn't played in a single match in 4 years is all the sudden going to win against Joint? 

I understand that joint is coming back from injury and has been getting her ass kicked, but that's expected as she's still trying to find her groove. And she's going to find her groove in spades against a 44-year-old player that hasn't played in years. 

So Serena still has a very strong serve...... So what? What good is that going to do when you have to run your ass around the court the entire match?

Even if Serena does look good, she's only going to look good very early in the match, because her stamina is going to evaporate and if anyone has been watching, joint has been having no problem running around the court. 

What a stupid line for a 20-year-old that's been active and has been playing legit competition. There are levels to this. 

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Serena gets bageled in the second set.

Serena is 18th to win the entire tournament ! 
The market has no idea how to price her ! I don’t see any value on this match here prematch ! But I am 100% certain the live market for this - is going to be wild and all over the place 

Like I can see you get +250 for Joint if Serena serves first and holds to “love” - this live market will be like stealing candy from a kid 

 If her stamina was completely shot 4 years ago and was struggling heavily to move around the court. What on earth makes anyone believe that she will do any better at 44 years old?

There is a extremely good reason why she specifically stated that she was only interested in playing doubles when she announced her coming out of retirement. 

I'm literally betting the farm on joint. This is literally the biggest gift of all time from Vegas all because of the legendary name Serena.

You know what? You're 100 percent right. Serena should be able to hold serve serving first.

I'll wait for Serena to hold and then absolutely unload everything I have on Joint.

Having a strong serve is actually pretty important esp. on grass - well I don’t know - I am basically as clueless about this as the market - because yeah in her prime Serena would have won 6-0, 6-0 - then of course what you mention should talk her down - but it is hard to set a price on how important those elements are - when we have only seen her play double - I have a better faith in me being able to read stuff like that better than the market live 

Serena doesn't even believe in herself. That's why she announced that she was specifically interested in playing doubles when coming out of retirement. She already told everyone that her singles game is completely dead.

Hehe glad that I could be of any help - I would maybe not set the farm on it :) - esp not when Serena going into this with the mindset that it would be considered a win if she could just win this one match - then she was just too dominating back then - to me being willing to unload on a “coinflip” in the market - you are almost guaranteed you can get a better price live - the market wants to favor Serena - so if it just gets a little taste that she could win - the market will shift completely on this 

Oh ok - I hadn’t seen her mentioning that - as I have all the time treated this as a match I would trade live - but I would suspect her giving her all in this match - and then not caring with further advancement 

I'm sorry, but I have to bet the farm on this one. The reality is a 44 year old that was completely shot 4 years ago and hasn't played a single singles match in 4 years (not even a warmup) is not beating a high ranked 20 year old that has been active against top ranked competition.

I'm not overthinking this for a single second.

You shouldn’t question it because I say so - but you should be aware the market knows everything you are saying too - so why do you think you are better at pricing that information than the market ! If you can answer that then you can bet with value - you of course can do what the hell you want :) but that should be your mindset when making bets - esp with the farm - working on the assumption you like that 

Answer this truthfully. Would we even be having this discussion if it was the exact same scenario, but switch a 44 year old Serena to a 44 year old Novak going up against a top 100 player?

If she was struggling to move 4 years ago but gets around nicely today just think of all the GLP-1 shots she's gonna sell though. 

Seriously that has to be at least part of the motivation for this publicity stunt. Even just looking slimmer on court for the world to see should help accomplish this goal. So you're basically watching a commercial.

Probably more interesting to see if the sisters are able to string some wins together in doubles. Won't be nearly as physically demanding, especially with big serves on a quick surface, and they are pretty decent faves in their first match. But I swear whenever I watch Venus recently it seems like she ends up choking in big moments.

We are not discussing anything - I don’t decide what you do - and I don’t have a clue what I would price this event at - so you might be right that Joint is the play here ! I think the value on this match will be found live by being able to read the importance of the aspects you highlight more effectively than the market - I almost guarantee you can get a higher price in-play - no matter which of the two players you fancy 

Serena will not be priced much higher than her starting odds here - if she loses first set in tiebreak ! This market has already priced in everything you say - so unless the first set goes according to that - Serena losing first set with not putting up much of a fight the market won’t react like in a normal match at all - I predict -180, - 200 range for Joint if she wins first set in a tiebreak 

She was hardly shot four years ago.....plus she has lost a lot of weight....i doubt her stamina will be big issue....im interested to see how she does...she looked pretty good in doubles but that's a whole different game

Gentlemen....... Have a good night 

Sometimes I even shock myself - how good I am at predicting the markets and how it will behave - how many times did the market trade higher for each player than the prematch odds - like 5-6 times for each player

Didn't matter to me. I literally bet the farm pre-match.  That's why I leave live betting alone. Because it skews your judgment in the heat of the moment. A lot of people went down with the ship by betting Serena when she was getting hot. Live betting is not the way to go.

I'm going to be good for a very long time 

Yes, yes - we can both be right - I was just better at predicting it than you were - and not even kidding it kind of scares me ! Because it isn’t rarely I can predict stuff like that - literally I do it almost on the daily - that is fucking spooky to be honest - that I can almost pinpoint exactly what will happen and when the different players will break each other etc. I call those things with a completely insane accuracy 

I don't care about all that man. I made nearly $175,000 on this match. As long as I'm right, I don't care.

@Nuts22

 Cap

I differentiate between winning and being right - you were not being right - but you won - which is of course nice - my ROI were higher ! So I was right and won 

I don't like live betting. Like I said it skews peoples judgement and I can only image how many people went down with the ship when Serena got hot. I imagine a lot of people lost a ton of money live betting Serena.

Far less stressful just betting pre match. 

@Nuts22

 Live bets are Vegas favorite

Mods delete this thread that has 2 ego maniacs who are delusional and lying. 

Nobody cares about this match.