Yeah if you are betting versus someone that doesn’t look at h2h - but bookmakers do this for a living - putting too much emphasis on h2h and seeding are the two biggest noob traps there are in tennis betting imo
@Calde13
I totally agree with you on this. Most of the time when you look at h2h there is really not enough data to make a meaningful assumption. If you flip a coin twice and it's heads both times it does nothing to alter the probability of the 3rd flip. If it's Novak playing someone else in their 30s who has played him 10+ times maybe there is useful data there but as you said, it's not some secret angle you found to beat the books.
Another major factor is that looking at h2h alone often lacks context. Like a player who lost 4 years ago when they were 18. Or a player who is playing the best tennis of their life but two years ago, when they were in bad form, they lost to a player twice.
A year or two from now we will see a matchup of Kessler and Anisimova and look at the h2h and be like, "ohhh Kessler dominated her last time and she's an underdog???" Again, completely lacking context.
@Calde13
Depends how you view and use it. It can’t be the sole decision.
For example, Ons Jabeur was -180ish against Ostapenko at Abu Dhabi and won 2-0. They played again 10 days later and she was -150ish and got smoked 0-2.
Like I said, it can’t be the sole decision but oddsmakers lowering the odds 10 days later is a solid indicator the dog will have a better chance
H2H is not without meaning, so of course you can use it for your pricing, but so does the bookmaker, and it is one of the easiest stats to find and quantify, so of course they have advanced computer programs that can change their odds according to H2H - you should primarily try to find stats etc. that are hard to find or correctly factor into the odds - I would actually argue that it is easier to find value in matches with players that are fairly unknown or don't have H2H matches.
Btw maybe it is a language barrier - but I don’t really understand your example sorry - how that support the statement that h2h is an important stat to have to be able to find value - but yeah let’s just put it to rest here - this isn’t what this thread should be about - I know I started it 
Hehe think it is more a personal vendetta you have going more than anything because this isn’t a lot of analysis :) and he could post here even if he had 0% win rate (he comes across as one of the more well informed in here though imo) but it is a public forum and as far as I know he doesn’t get money for posting - and you should never tail someone without doing your own research so who really cares - I am surprised though that there are even people that want to post in here - can’t really see the benefits to that myself AND if you are earning a lot of money fading as you state - what are even the purpose of your post ?
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