Posted:
#1
Victoria Mboko (-150)
0
DC Open
Posted:
#15
@Tittylankaluver
Good question and I actually agree with you on both points- Kenin did look pretty good against Baptiste and the win over Maria is nothing to write home about.
For me this is more about an angle I have played for a couple years now with Townsend and giving her a boost when she is playing in North America. These two have a back and forth h2h with Kenin winning most recently at Wimbledon which was very tight through the first set before Townsend faded in the second. But simply put, ever since Townsend had a baby she has been a completely different player when she plays in North America versus when she's playing overseas. It is like a night and day difference and in my opinion the betting markets don't fully compensate for it. This is likely why there's late action coming in on Kenin and why I waited for the odds to grow a bit before playing it.
1
Posted:
#16
Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
@Tittylankaluver Good question and I actually agree with you on both points- Kenin did look pretty good against Baptiste and the win over Maria is nothing to write home about. For me this is more about an angle I have played for a couple years now with Townsend and giving her a boost when she is playing in North America. These two have a back and forth h2h with Kenin winning most recently at Wimbledon which was very tight through the first set before Townsend faded in the second. But simply put, ever since Townsend had a baby she has been a completely different player when she plays in North America versus when she's playing overseas. It is like a night and day difference and in my opinion the betting markets don't fully compensate for it. This is likely why there's late action coming in on Kenin and why I waited for the odds to grow a bit before playing it.
@Tittylankaluver Good question and I actually agree with you on both points- Kenin did look pretty good against Baptiste and the win over Maria is nothing to write home about. For me this is more about an angle I have played for a couple years now with Townsend and giving her a boost when she is playing in North America. These two have a back and forth h2h with Kenin winning most recently at Wimbledon which was very tight through the first set before Townsend faded in the second. But simply put, ever since Townsend had a baby she has been a completely different player when she plays in North America versus when she's playing overseas. It is like a night and day difference and in my opinion the betting markets don't fully compensate for it. This is likely why there's late action coming in on Kenin and why I waited for the odds to grow a bit before playing it.
To illustrate, look at her win/loss record since the start of the 2024:
Overall: 37-31 (61%)
North America: 32-13 (71%)
Overseas: 5-18 (21%)
2
Posted:
#19
And I just found some strong evidence to back up my claim that the betting markets don't fully compensate for the difference in Townsend's level on home soil:
Today's match looks like it might close at EXACTLY the same odds as the match they played 3 weeks ago at Wimbledon. That is just CRAZY. Granted I can't tell you Kenin's home/away splits off the top of my head but there is no way they are anywhere near as skewed as Townsend's are.
Obviously none of this means that Townsend will actually win today but the value is certainly with the +175 imo.
2
Posted:
#20
@CuSe_Nation
I don't think any of my books will void a match like that unless it has been suspended for at least 48 hours. I wouldn't recommend cashing out either though as I tend to think that extended rain delays are mostly beneficial to the player who is trailing. She just needs to come back out tomorrow and win in straight sets. It's kind of funny because if you would have bet her to win in straight sets today it would have probably been something like +260 but her ML currently is at +300 which is basically the same thing as winning in straight sets tomorrow.
1
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