Betfusion

@Betfusion

@Betfusion

 U sure u know tennis lol

@jimmynmail

 Very constructive. Post your plays 

Gaston ML -124 (FD) 1 unit

lean burruchaga

Kyrgios is apparently playing Sabalenka in an exhibition with modified rules, including a smaller court for Kyrgios to hit into. 

Might be some value here ^^.  Kyrgios would most likely bagel Sabalenka with traditional rules, but I doubt any modified rules will change much. That is of course if Kyrgios doesn't lose his mind in the middle of the match, get DQed, and/or just walk off haha

@Betfusion

 Apparently they only get one serve too. So Nick would either have to hit a second serve or risk faulting. Supposed to neutralize his power but she will have to do the same so he will be able to tee off on her serve. Seems like he should get 1 and she should get 2. And they're saying there is a 9% speed difference between men and women so Sab's side will be 9% smaller. Not sure that a 9% reduction in size directly negates the 9% speed difference but ok.

@bringit

 If those are the only rule changes I still think Nick cruises... interesting to see the final rules and odds

Tabur ML 2U

berrettini ML -132 (DK) 1U and look to add live another unit at better price 

adding tabur -130 live 1 unit

betmgm had a better price on this with tabur down 1 game in final set -110, but their app is terrible betting live.  I think FanDuel had a better price too

adding another 2u.  will hope school wins this service game and get it near -120

ugly.  tabur had 6 break chances in that final set...

Djokovicz has not played a top 10 opponent in a best of 3 for over a year!  Now he faces Musetti who has been honing his hardcourt game all while public perception is he is a clay player. 

Musetti must win (or hope someone withdraws) to make it to the ATP final in his home country starting this weekend.  I believe this will motivate him.

I wish Musetti played better versus Korda.  Yes he had the 6-0 first set, but it felt like Korda was controlling the majority of points after the first set- overpowering Musetti- especially when Musetti was playing a lot of slices.  Djokovicz has had trouble with good slices in the past so this may neutralize or be an advantage for Musetti.

The lines suggest this will be a close match as the ML is quite a large disparity, but the best total games I can get for Musetti is over 12.5 around +115

Musetti +3.5 -145 (mgm) 2 units

Musetti to win one set -140 2 units

djoker does not look comfortable against musetti

@Betfusion

 Agree

sinner zverev first 4 games 2-2 -115 (caeser)

cazaux ML -190.  Will try to get live at -170 or better

Humbert -145

kyrgios starting soon.  Should be interesting to watch.  Ill look for a live opportunity on Kova in the 2nd or 3rd set.  I don't believe Kyrgios fitness is there

hurkacz +3.5 -170 caeser

May be ok with +2.5 -115

potapova +104

sinner -2.5 sets + struff ML 

AI like Zverev to win vs the qualified in 3 or 4 sets.  He is serving extremely well... 

first serve percentage / first serve win % last 3 matches

vs fritz 77% / 77%

vs lehecka 70% / 82%

Giron 73% / 77% 

If he is serving anywhere near 70% first serve imo he wins in straight sets

this is -300 on DK

I will parlay this with several plays, including noskova to win 1 set based on bringits thread and reviewing some of their last matches

Fery can't even bounce the ball before his serve he is so nervous.  First set was probably his best chance with some momentum from the crowd.  

Zverev at 76% first serve..

Zverev +6.5 / Sinner ML -110

Zverev should be able to hold his serve and only get broken 2-3 times, but I expect sinner to win this match.  it's a bad matchup for zverev.  zverev loves to play on the baseline and trade heavy shots, which sinner is the best at

zverev-sinner 2:2 after 4 games / zverev +2.5 games 1st set +116

sinner winning 94% of service games and zverev 95% this tournament