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The YONS NFL Totals

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Posted: #76
Good job Gas ... so you got Hou/Oak at 44 (or 43.5) to squeak out that win?  I figured that may be a push for some ...  Damn Saints/Lions couldn't get that final score to make it 9-3. 
 
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Posted: #77
...Ken
 
....9-4 night  
 
.....what do you like for GB/Chi?
 
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Posted: #78
I'm not changing horses now ... I liked the over at 41.5 on Tuesday and I still like the over at 40.
 
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Posted: #79
good job sir!
 
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Posted: #80
Last week  10-6  (62.5%)
Overall  71-44-2  (60.7%)
Top 5  2-3 last week  21-18-1 Overall (52.5%)  At least the top 2 went 2-0.
 
That makes 8 straight winning weeks with one to go ... I don't feel any leans this week for which way the lines will move so I am betting what I can get tomorrow.  Here ya go.
 
Rams/Falcons Under 44 (13.1)
Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (11.7)
Patriots/Bills Over 42.5 (8.9)
Titans/Colts Over 38 (4.0)
Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45.5 (3.6)
Chiefs/Bengals Under 38 (3.5)
Dolphins/Jets Over 42 (3.4)
Jaguars/Ravens Over 35.5 (2.3)
Browns/Steelers Over 32.5 (2.1)
Redskins/49ers Over 37 (1.7)
Cowboys/Eagles Under 43 (1.6)
Panthers/Saints Over 53 (1.3)
Broncos/Chargers Under 50 (0.1)
 
 
 
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Posted: #81

Here is the whole list with all 16 games ... plus I made a few adjustments and updated some lines.  The underlined games are the 3 just added.

Rams/Falcons Under 44.5 (9.6)
Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (7.7)
Patriots/Bills Over 42.5 (5.9)
Giants/Vikings Over 42 (4.7)
Titans/Colts Over 38 (4.0)
Dolphins/Jets Over 41.5 (3.9)
Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45 (3.4)
Chiefs/Bengals Under 37.5 (3.0)
Lions/Packers Over 42.5 (2.9)
Browns/Steelers Over 32 (2.3)
Jaguars/Ravens Over 35.5 (2.3)
Redskins/49ers Over 37 (1.7)
Panthers/Saints Over 53 (1.3)
Bears/Texans Over 47 (1.2)
Cowboys/Eagles Under 42.5 (1.1)
Broncos/Chargers Under 50 (0.1)  If this goes to 49.5 or lower I would take the Over

 
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Posted: #82
Like last week I am combining systems and taking averages so it may seem a little confusing comparing the new ratings to the last post, but its the best I can do.  ie the ratings do not have a 1-1 relationship with the change in the spread like when I started.  These ratings most accurately reflect the picks as I see them as I write this now with the new lines.
 
As i have done the past few weeks a negative number means the line moved in my favor (advantage to bet early) and a positive number means it moved against me and is better to bet now.  I barely won the battle of line moves this week, 7 games to 6
 
Rams/Falcons Under 44 (9.3) -0.5
Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (7.7) EV
Patriots/Bills Over 40 (7.6) +2.5
Giants/Vikings Over 41.5 (5.2) +0.5
Chiefs/Bengals Under 38.5 (4) +1.0
Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45.5 (3.6) +0.5
Titans/Colts Over 39 (3) -1.0
Lions/Packers Over 42.5 (2.9) EV
Dolphins/Jets Over 43 (2.4) -1.5 
Panthers/Saints Over 51.5 (2.1) +1.5
Browns/Steelers Over 34 (1.3) -2.0  I have over 32 and will try and middle with Under 34
Bears/Texans Over 47 (1.2) EV
Redskins/49ers Over 37.5 (1.2) -0.5
Jaguars/Ravens Over 37.5 (0.7) -2.0  I have over 35.5 and will try and middle with Under 37.5
Broncos/Chargers Under 50.5 (0.6) +0.5
Cowboys/Eagles Under 42 (0.6) -0.5
 
This middle business could be fun for next year ... for Cle/Pit I have
< 32 lose 0.1 unit
=32 win 1 unit
=33 win 2 units
=34 win 1 unit
> 34 lose 0.1 unit
 
for Jax/Bal I have
< 36 lose 0.1 unit
=37 win 2 units
=38 win 2 units
> 38 lose 0.1 unit
 
GL to everyone !!!
 
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Posted: #83
opps shoulda been for Jax/Bal
< 36 lose 0.1 unit
=36 win 2 units
=37 win 2 units
> 37 lose 0.1 unit 
 
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Posted: #84
Think you need to be a little careful this week since some teams will be resting the starters, ie. The Giants.
 
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Posted: #85
....Tough way to finish...6-10
 
played them all....
 
thanks for some of the past weeks though...
 
...lets clean up in the playoffs kenyon...
 
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Posted: #86
Gas,  If you went 6-10 you musta not followed one of my picks ... cuz it looks like 5-11 to me.   I sure was hoping for 9 winning weeks and above 60% but it just wasn't meant to be.  At least my Dolphins made the playoffs.  So here are the final numbers ...
 
Last Week 5-11 (31.3%)
Overall 76-55-2  (57.1 %)
Top 5  0-5 last week  21-23-1 Overall (46.7%)
 
55% is generally the goal of most systems, so I finished 2.1% above that, and should be happy, but this last week sure leaves a bad taste in my mouth.  Woulda been nice to hit those middle bets ... both only needed a field goal in the 4th to win, but nope.  At least those two basically ended in a push for me instead of losses.
 
Anyway I was just working on the playoff numbers, and lo and behold I found a mistake in the last week predicitions.  It's kinda hard to tell how much of a difference it would of made, but I'm going to kinda explain some of my system and work through it and make a couple of posts as I chase down the error and give you options on the playoff picks.
 
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Posted: #87
I'll give some basics of my system ... I use most major stats and boil it down to 4 numbers for each team.  Offense and Defense for the Home Team and for the Road Team.  So take the Off passing yards stat ... to figure that out I need to know the passing yards allowed by each team that off played.  Say they played 3 games ... Team A allowed 190 yds, Team B 210 yards and Team C 200 yards ... the average is 200 right?  Now, I look at the average passing off for the team in question ... say its 205.2 then they get a plus 5.2 rating.  If they had a off passing ave of 192.5 then the rating would be negative 7.5.  Do that for every team, every game, every stat, at home and on the road and you get the four numbers I was talking about in the beginning.
 
So for each game on game day take the Team A offense #'s at home and subtract Team B def #'s on the road. Do that for each stat.  If Team A is better it will be a positive #, if Team B it will be negative.  Add them all together to get one number for who will win the game.  That's the "basics" of my system ... how I actually use that to predict scores is a bit more complicated, but here is a brief description.
 
If you plot my numbers (the pos & neg) for say the home team vs past scores you hope to see a linear relationship,  ie low #'s low score, high #'s high score.  Determine the slope and intercept of the past data, then if I give you a number, you can predict the score.  Do the same for the road team and add them for the final score.
 
 
 
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Posted: #88

So last week I had something like this ...

Dang. I can't use the Excel sheet I had here ... so I''ll have to improvise with a short version typed out.

Rams     Off Road -8.5   Def Road -7.7

Falcons  Off Home 3.8   Def Home 1.2

So to get the Rams # I take (-8.5) - (1.2) = -9.7

The Falcons is 3.8 - (-7.7) = 11.5

Now wait a minute ... that is the simple way, what I actually do is multiply each of those numbers by a "weighting factor" before I subtract them.  Then I take those two numbers for each team and use the plot to find the score ... ie multiply by slope and add intercept.

Now the mistake I made last week was the 2nd number in the weighting was zero ... ie the number was there but the formula in Excel used the cell below which was blank.  So the Rams # above looked more like this.

(-8.5) * (weight #A) - (1.2) * (weight #B) = some #

I won't include the weight #'s to avoid confusion ... anyway with weight #B = 0 it excludes the whole 2nd component of my formulas ... ie its FU'ed .. it did that for every game.

 
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Posted: #89
Ok, so I will try and paste the numbers for every game last week.  There are the two teams, the first being the road team, then home team, then the road teams number, the home teams number, then the combined score for each game ... these are the numbers I used, the one with the mistake.
 
Rams Falcons -13.0   2.6   31.4
Jaguars Ravens -2.5   2.0   39.8
Patriots Bills     13.6  -3.9   51.6
Chiefs Bengals -7.0   -5.0   32.2
Lions Packers  -1.0    2.6   42.7
Bears Texans   -5.7   2.8    37.6
Titans Colts     1.2    2.9    44.1
Giants Vikings   6.0  -0.4   46.7
Panthers Saints 0.9   8.3   47.3
Dolphins Jets    4.8    3.6   47.8
CowboysEagles -3.1  3.3   41.4
Browns Steelers -3.9 -2.6   36.7
Raiders Bucs     -7.0  -0.4  34.6
Hawks Cardinals -5.2  2.9  38.2
Broncos Chargs -0.7   3.2  43.2
Redskins 49ers  -1.9  0.0   38.7
 
Here the corrected numbers
Rams Falcons -11.8 12.7   39.0
Jaguars Ravens -16.7 6.3   28.9
Patriots Bills 10.2 -10.3     44.3
Chiefs Bengals -3.2 -14.3   30.0
Lions Packers 1.6 8.1       48.8
Bears Texans -3.7 7.4       42.4
Titans Colts -8.4 2.0          34.3
Giants Vikings 1.4 -1.2      41.8
Panthers Saints 4.6 26.0   62.1
Dolphins Jets 9.9 7.9        55.4
Cowboys Eagles -7.6 10.8 41.8
Browns Steelers -9.6 -5.8  29.2
Raiders Bucs -11.1 -0.3    30.8
Hawks Cardinals 2.1 9.7   49.5
Broncos Chargers -4.0 9.9  44.3
Redskins 49ers 6.0 -0.2     46.1
 
The key being the last numbers .. they are my predicted scores.  As you can see they are quite different.  Take those numbers and subtract the Vegas line and you have it ... Under or Over. 
 
I used that basic system for the first 6 weeks I think it was ... then I created another one that was more like what I created for the NBA, it also only used the last 6 or 7 games instead of whole season.  So then I had a second set of "lines."   The only difference in the two is how i generate the four numbers, after that it is the same.  The "mistake" I made was in the 2nd system and are the numbers above.  That system alone only went 3-13 last week.
 
Ok, almost done ... going to start a new post. 
 
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Posted: #90
So what I did the last three weeks was take the two systems and "average" the predicitions.  Here are the numbers for the "old system," this time with just my predicited final score and the OU pick.  BTW the old system went 9-7 last week.
 
Rams Falcons 31.4 Under
Jaguars Ravens 39.8 Over
Patriots Bills 51.6 Over
Chiefs Bengals 32.2 Under
Lions Packers 42.7 Over
Bears Texans 37.6 Under
Titans Colts 44.1 Over
Giants Vikings 46.7 Over
Panthers Saints 47.3 Under
Dolphins Jets 47.8 Over
Cowboys Eagles 41.4 Under
Browns Steelers 36.7 Over
Raiders Bucs 34.6 Under
Seahawks Cardinals 38.2 Under
Broncos Chargers 43.2 Under
Redskins 49ers 38.7 Over
 
Ok, so if I take both systems and average the predicted final score I get this ...
 
Rams Falcons 30.9 Under
Jaguars Ravens 36.8 Over
Patriots Bills 51.4 Over
Chiefs Bengals 34.5 Under
Lions Packers 48.4 Over
Bears Texans 48.2 Over
Titans Colts 42.0 Over
Giants Vikings 49.0 Over
Panthers Saints 55.6 Over
Dolphins Jets 45.4 Over
Cowboys Eagles 48.2 Over
Browns Steelers 29.9 Under
Raiders Bucs 27.3 Under
Seahawks Cardinals 48.9 Over
Broncos Chargers 49.9 Under
Redskins 49ers 30.2 Under
 
Now this combination would have gone 7-9 last week, but I wasn't done yet ... on games where both systems agreed on the over or under i used the average, but what do you do when they don't agree?  I figured the average was not really a good indication ... one says 10 points over the other says 2 points under ... hmmm.  So what I did for those games was look at each system and kinda generate my own numbers, or just picked one system over the other.  So then I was done ... all I do then is subtract my predicted line from the Vegas line to get my so called "rating".  I posted this ... here is the unsorted version so it matches the previous order.
 
Rams/Falcons Under 44 (13.1)
Jaguars/Ravens Over 35.5 (2.3)
Patriots/Bills Over 42.5 (8.9)
Chiefs/Bengals Under 38 (3.5)
Lions/Packers Over 42.5 (2.9)
Bears/Texans Over 47 (1.2)
Titans/Colts Over 38 (4)
Giants/Vikings Over 42 (4.7)
Panthers/Saints Over 53 (1.3)
Dolphins/Jets Over 42 (3.4)
Cowboys/Eagles Under 43 (1.6)
Browns/Steelers Over 32.5 (2.1)
Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (11.7)
Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45.5 (3.6)
Broncos/Chargers Under 50 (0.1)
Redskins/49ers Over 37 (1.7)
 
This final version went 5-11 !!!
 
So see it is not easy to figure out how much the error played in the final version, but it was obviously a big part in this final week breakdown.  I may look into more tomorrow.
 
Now what I am going to do for the playoffs is give you all three versions.  The original system, the new NBA type version,  and maybe I will combine them and give what I have the last three weeks.  Hopefully none will have a mistake in it.  LOL
 
I hope you enjoyed my dialog of how I have provided you with my NFL picks the past 9 weeks and why I was not really able to simply answer some of the questions I received in the beginning.  I look to make refinements and try again next year.  It was fun.
 
kenYON
 
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Posted: #91
Ok for the Playoffs here is the new system ... (more like NBA system and only includes last 6 or 7 games ... and the old system (includes entire season #'s)
 
I included following each team the one number I generate as explained earlier.  Then is my predicted total, the Vegas line, the difference (rating) and the pick.
 
NEW SYSTEM
Falcons 7.5 Cardinals 3.5    50.6    50.5    0.1  Over
Colts   -1.8  Chargers 8.8     44.9    50      5.1  Under
Ravens 5.6  Dolphins -9.9     40.9    37      3.9  Over
Eagles -3.6 Vikings   -2.8     36.4    42      5.6  Under
 
OLD SYSTEM
Falcons 9.5 Cardinals  4.0    66.9    50.5   16.4  Over
Colts    1.6  Chargers  4.9    51.3    50      1.3  Over
Ravens 1.7  Dolphins  -8.7    39.4    37     2.4  Over
Eagles 1.3  Vikings    -0.5    46.1    42     4.1  Over
 
I'll let you mull over these numbers some and probably combine them like I have the past 3 weeks and come up with my final predictions tomorrow.  Maybe you can see the dilemma I faced choosing between two systems ... I'm actually having the same problem in the NBA, that is choosing between two systems.
 
BTW I did not "update" any stats like I did all season ... I am just treating these games like they are week 17 games ... ie I did not use any of yesterdays stats.
 
 

 
 
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Posted: #92
Opps, I posted the error results 2 posts above where I meant to post the old system results... notice the #'s are the same?  So here is what I meant to go there.
 
Rams Falcons 30.3 Under L
Jaguars Ravens 33.8 Under W
Patriots Bills 51.2 Over L
Chiefs Bengals 36.8 Under W
Lions Packers 54.0 Over W
Bears Texans 58.9 Over W
Titans Colts 40.0 Over L
Giants Vikings 51.3 Over L
Panthers Saints 64.0 Over W
Dolphins Jets 43.0 Over L
Cowboys Eagles 54.9 Over W
Browns Steelers 23.0 Under W
Raiders Bucs 19.9 Under L
Seahawks Cardinals 59.5 Over W
Broncos Chargers 56.6 Over W
Redskins 49ers 21.6 Under L
 
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Posted: #93
Funny .. I just noticed above where the old system hit the Car/NO game exactly right .. 64 points.  Some games are way off tho .. ie NE/Buf and Oak/TB but most are pretty damn close ...
 
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Posted: #94
......looks like the bets are.....
 
Falcons/Cardinals.....Over
Colts/Chargers......Under
Ravens/Dolphins...... Over
Eagles/Vikings.....Under
 
.......ya think????
 
 
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Posted: #95
Thats' what the new system likes but I'm more inclined to follow the old system ... I looked closer at the Off vs Def stats for these and decided on.
 
Atl/Ari Over
Ind/SD Over
Bal/Mia Under
Phi/Min Under
 
 
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Posted: #96
Good job Gas ... we both went 3-1 with our picks ...
 
Last Week 3-1  75%
Overall  79-56-2  57.7%
 
Here's a little more insight on my system.
 
Road Off vs Home Def #'s
               Pass  Rate  Rush  Scoring
Ravens      -39     -29     27     -16
Cardinals    40     11     -45      4
Eagles        33     -10     -28     9
Chargers     -7     14     -101    -17
 
Home Off vs Road Def #'s
               Pass  Rate  Rush  Scor
Titans      -43      -59     -9       -9
Panthers   -6       42      27      42
Giants      -19      1       23      24
Steelers    34      26     -32      3
 
And then them combined
                           Pass  Rate  Rush  Scor
Ravens/Titans        -83     -88     18     -26
Cardinals/Panthers  33     52     -18      46
Eagles/Giants         14     -9      -5       33
Chargers/Steelers    27     40   -133    -14
Here are the New System picks
                               Line   Me     Dif    Pick
Ravens/Titans          34       47.5    13.5  Over
Cardinals/Panthers  48.5    45.1     3.4    Under
Eagles/Giants          39     46.1     7.1    Over
Chargers/Steelers     38     30.3     7.7    Under
 
Old System
                               Line    Me     Dif    Pick
Ravens/Titans          34       31.9     2.1    Under
Cardinals/Panthers  48.5     53.9     5.4    Over
Eagles/Giants          39       57.6    18.6   Over
Chargers/Steelers     38      33.6     4.4    Under
 
So both systems agree on
Phi/Gia Over and
SD/Pit  Under
 
Looking at the Phi/Gia game #'s ... first off the Scoring #'s are 9 and 24 so that is good for the over.  Phi has 33 in Pass but neg 28 in run and the Giants have 23 in rush.  So the best bet for the over is to have Phi get out to an early lead and force NY to pass.  If NY gets an early lead it could be trouble, cuz they will grind the clock with runs.
Prediction Phil 27  NY 14  Over
 
SD/Pit ... It all depends on how that little squirt RB for SD does ... he scares me and could break some runs.  Other then that I don't see the SD Off having much for the Pitt D.  Looks like Pit has decent passing #'s against the SD defense, but if they get the lead they will try and run and hopefully not do too much passing.  Looks like a field position game to me and a lot of punts.
Prediction  Pitt  17  SD 10  Under
 
Now the trickier games wher the systems disagree.
Bal/Ten ... both teams have awful scoring #'s for a total of neg 16.  Actually both team have nothing but neg numbers, except for 27 rushing for the Ravens.  So I am going to have to take the under even tho the new system has the line at 47.5
Prediction Bal 14  Ten 13  Under
 
Ari/Car ... the new system has an under and the old an over, that kinda seems backwards to me.  The new system uses the latter part of the season and Car has been lighting it up lately ... I guess Ari has been scoring lower lately.  Looking at the #'s it looks like an over, but something tells me Ari is going to have a hard time scoring.  I like the Panthers and the under.
Prediction Car 30 Ari 17 Under (just barely)
 
 
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Posted: #97
2-0 
 
Pretty much hit those projected scores right on the head, you have to switch Ari and Car team wise, but I am only after the totals, so who cares.  LOL
 
Car scared the crap out of me going for 2 at the end, and I had under 48, woulda made it a push.
 
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Posted: #98
Last Week 2-2  50%
Overall 81-58-2  57.4%
Playoffs 5-3  62.5%
 
For only the sixth time in history we will have a "Bird Team" in the Super Bowl.  Only once has a bird team won, SB 35 Ravens 34 Giants 7.  Ravens are only bird team in the AFC.  Four of the 5 bird teams made the playoffs, with a record 3 still alive.  Eagles fly to Phoenix.  NY Geese take down Jet(s).
 
Phi 14  Ari 26  Under 47
 
Bal 19  Pit 14  Under 34
 
 
 
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Posted: #99
I like both picks on sides and UNDER Bal/Pit...
 
....but I think Phi/Ari goes OVER....
 
 
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Posted: #100
Last Week 0-2  0%
Overall  81-60-2  56.6%
Playoffs 5-5  50%
 
Gotta hit this to reach 55% in the playoffs ...
 
The Pit def is twice the Phi def ... Ari gets stopped.  Pit runs and milks clock.
 
Pit 20    Ari 17  Under 46.5
 
 
 
 
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