• Forums
  • Best Betting Sites
  • Sportsbook Promos
  • Best Sports Betting Apps
  • NFL Betting Forum
  • NBA Betting Forum
  • MLB Betting Forum
  • NHL Betting Forum
  • NCAAF Betting Forum
  • NCAAB Betting Forum
  • Soccer Betting Forum
  • Tennis Betting Forum
  • General Discussion
  • Help Forum
  • Guidelines
  • FAQ
  • Forum Updates
    Covers Logo
    Covers App
    Faster picks. Smarter bets.
    All in the NEW Covers App
    Download on the App Store Download on the Google Play Store
    • Sports
      • NFL
        • Back
        • NFL
        • NFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NFL Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NCAAF
        • Back
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAF Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NCAAF Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NBA
        • Back
        • NBA
        • NBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • NCAAB
        • Back
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • NCAAB Picks
        • Injuries
      • MLB
        • Back
        • MLB
        • MLB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • MLB Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NHL
        • Back
        • NHL
        • NHL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NHL Picks
        • Injuries
      • Soccer
      • UFC
      • WNBA
        • Back
        • WNBA
        • WNBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • WNBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • CFL
        • Back
        • CFL
        • CFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • CFL Picks
      • Golf
        • Back
        • Golf
        • Golf Home
        • Golf Odds
        • Masters Odds
        • PGA Championship Odds
        • US Open Odds
        • British Open Odds
        • Ryder Cup Odds
        • Golf Picks
    • Odds
      • All Odds
      • NFL
      • NCAAF
      • NBA
      • NCAAB
      • MLB
      • NHL
      • Golf
      • Soccer Odds
        • Back
        • Soccer Odds
        • MLS Odds
        • Champions League Odds
        • Premier League Odds
      • UFC
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • Election Odds
      • Futures
        • Back
        • Futures
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • MLB
        • NHL
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAF
      • Sports Odds History
    • Picks
      • All Picks
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • NHL
      • MLB
      • NCAAF
      • NCAAB
      • Golf
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • User Picks
      • Team User Picks
      • Consensus Picks
        • Back
        • Consensus Picks
        • All Consensus Picks
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • NHL
        • MLB
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAB
        • CFL
        • WNBA
        • Consensus FAQ
        • Public Money
    • Prop Projections
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • MLB
      • NHL
    • Betting
      • US Betting Sites
      • Canada Betting Sites
      • Sportsbook Reviews
      • States
        • Back
        • States
        • US Legal Tracker
        • Revenue Tracker
        • Arizona
        • Arkansas
        • California
        • Colorado
        • Connecticut
        • DC
        • Florida
        • Georgia
        • Illinois
        • Indiana
        • Iowa
        • Kansas
        • Kentucky
        • Louisiana
        • Maine
        • Maryland
        • Massachusetts
        • Michigan
        • Mississippi
        • Missouri
        • Nevada
        • New Hampshire
        • New Jersey
        • New York
        • North Carolina
        • Ohio
        • Oregon
        • Pennsylvania
        • Tennessee
        • Texas
        • Vermont
        • Virginia
        • West Virginia
        • Wyoming
      • Provinces
        • Back
        • Provinces
        • Alberta
        • British Columbia
        • Manitoba
        • New Brunswick
        • Newfoundland and Labrador
        • Northwest Territories
        • Nova Scotia
        • Nunavut
        • Ontario
        • Prince Edward Island
        • Quebec (English)
        • Quebec (francais)
        • Saskatchewan
        • Yukon
      • By Sport
        • Back
        • By Sport
        • Baseball
        • Basketball
        • Boxing
        • College Football
        • F1
        • Football
        • Super Bowl
        • Golf
        • Hockey
        • Horse Racing
        • March Madness
        • Soccer
        • UFC
        • World Cup
      • Betting Apps
        • Back
        • Betting Apps
        • Best Sports Betting Apps USA
        • Ontario Sports Betting Apps
      • Rest of World
        • Back
        • Rest of World
        • UK Betting Offers
          • Back
          • UK Betting Offers
          • UK Betting Sites
          • bet365 Bonus Code UK
          • 888Sport Promo Code UK
          • William Hill Sign up Offer
          • Betway Sign up Offer
          • BetVictor Bonus Code UK
      • Betting Guides
        • Back
        • Betting Guides
        • All Guides
        • Glossary
        • Betting Calculators
          • Back
          • Betting Calculators
          • Odds Converter
          • Parlay Calculator
        • Futures Betting Guide
        • Moneyline Betting Guide
        • Over/Under Betting Guide
        • Parlay Betting Guide
        • Point Spread Betting Guide
        • Prop Betting Guide
        • Sports Betting Guides
          • Back
          • Sports Betting Guides
          • How To Bet On Sports Guide
          • NFL Betting Guide
          • NHL Betting Guide
          • NBA Betting Guide
          • MLB Betting Guide
          • NCAAB Betting Guide
          • NCAAF Betting Guide
          • Golf Betting Guide
          • Tennis Betting Guide
        • Teaser Betting Guide
      • Betting News
        • Back
        • Betting News
        • All News
        • Industry News
        • Podcasts
        • Covers Videos
        • Covers Writers
        • Offers & Boosts
    • Promos
      • Sportsbook Promos
      • Canada Sportsbook Promos
      • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • bet365 Bonus Code
        • BET99 Promo Code
        • BetMGM Bonus Code
        • BetRivers Bonus Code
        • Caesars Sportsbook Promo
        • DraftKings Promo Code
        • Fanatics Sportsbook Promo
        • FanDuel Promo Code
        • Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
        • Sports Interaction Promo
        • Stake Promo Code
        • theScore Bet Promo Code
        • TonyBet Promo Code
      • Bonuses By Region
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Region
        • Arkansas Promos
        • Arizona Promos
        • Colorado Promos
        • Connecticut Promos
        • DC Promos
        • Illinois Promos
        • Indiana Promos
        • Iowa Promos
        • Kansas Promos
        • Kentucky Promos
        • Louisiana Promos
        • Maine Promos
        • Maryland Promos
        • Massachusetts Promos
        • Michigan Promos
        • Missouri Promos
        • New Jersey Promos
        • New York Promos
        • North Carolina Promos
        • Ohio Promos
        • Pennsylvania Promos
        • Tennessee Promos
        • Vermont Promos
        • Virginia Promos
        • West Virginia Promos
        • Wyoming Promos
    • Forum & Contests
      • All Forums
      • NFL Betting Forum
      • MLB Betting Forum
      • NCAAB Betting Forum
      • NCAAF Betting Forum
      • NBA Betting Forum
      • NHL Betting Forum
      • Soccer Betting Forum
      • Contests
        • Back
        • Contests
        • Contests Home
        • Streak Survivor
        • King of Covers
        • My Contests
    • Casino
      • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Back
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes No-Deposit Bonuses
        • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Back
          • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Card Crush
          • Casino.click
          • Chanced Casino
          • Crown Coins Casino
          • FreeSpin Casino
          • LoneStar
          • McLuck
          • Mega Bonanza Casino
          • PlayFame
          • Pulsz
          • Stake.us
      • US Casinos
        • Back
        • US Casinos
        • US Online Casinos
        • US Online Casino Bonuses
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • bet365 Casino Promo Code
          • BetRivers Casino Promo
          • Borgata Casino Bonus Code
          • Caesars Casino Bonus Code
          • DraftKings Casino Promo
          • Fanatics Casino Promo
          • FanDuel Casino Promo Code
          • Golden Nugget Casino Promo
          • Hard Rock Bet Casino Promo
          • Hollywood Casino Promo Code
      • Canada Casinos
        • Back
        • Canada Casinos
        • Canada Online Casinos
        • Provinces
          • Back
          • Provinces
          • Alberta Online Casino
          • BC Online Casino
          • Ontario Online Casinos
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • BC.GAME Bonus Code
          • Cloudbet Promo Code
          • RainBet Promo Code
          • Roobet Promo Code
          • Shuffle Promo Code
          • Thrill Promo Code
    • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Market Apps
      • Prediction Market Promos
      • Kalshi Promo Code
      • Kalshi Referral Code
      • Polymarket Promo Code
      • Polymarket Referral Code
      • DraftKings Predictions Promo Code
      • Novig Promo Code
      • ProphetX Promo Code
      • Underdog Promo Code
      • Betr Promo Code
      • OG Promo Code
      • Fanatics Markets Promo Code
      • Plus500 Promo Code
      • Gemini Predictions Promo Code
    • NFL Week 3
      NFL Week 3
      • NFL Odds
      • NFL Picks
      • Falcons-Packers Picks
      • Survivor Picks
      • Week 3 Odds
      • NFL Prediction Markets
      • NFL Betting Sites
    Covers Account
    Log in Create account
    Join free Log in
    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    The YONS NFL Totals

    «First Previous 1234
    kenyonlv
    gasman33
    jetmech
    gutcheck
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 6181
    Posts: 100
    «First Previous 1234
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 21, 2008 - 8:11 PM ET #76

    Good job Gas ... so you got Hou/Oak at 44 (or 43.5) to squeak out that win?  I figured that may be a push for some ...  Damn Saints/Lions couldn't get that final score to make it 9-3. 
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Good job Gas ... so you got Hou/Oak at 44 (or 43.5) to squeak out that win?  I figured that may be a push for some ...  Damn Saints/Lions couldn't get that final score to make it 9-3. 
     
    gasman33
    gasman33
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2006
    Posts: 1636
    Posted: Dec. 21, 2008 - 11:14 PM ET #77

    ...Ken
     
    ....9-4 night  
     
    .....what do you like for GB/Chi?
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    ...Ken
     
    ....9-4 night  
     
    .....what do you like for GB/Chi?
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 21, 2008 - 11:51 PM ET #78

    I'm not changing horses now ... I liked the over at 41.5 on Tuesday and I still like the over at 40.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    I'm not changing horses now ... I liked the over at 41.5 on Tuesday and I still like the over at 40.
     
    jetmech
    jetmech
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2008
    Posts: 173
    Posted: Dec. 22, 2008 - 12:02 AM ET #79

    good job sir!
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    good job sir!
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 23, 2008 - 5:27 AM ET #80

    Last week  10-6  (62.5%)
    Overall  71-44-2  (60.7%)
    Top 5  2-3 last week  21-18-1 Overall (52.5%)  At least the top 2 went 2-0.
     
    That makes 8 straight winning weeks with one to go ... I don't feel any leans this week for which way the lines will move so I am betting what I can get tomorrow.  Here ya go.
     
    Rams/Falcons Under 44 (13.1)
    Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (11.7)
    Patriots/Bills Over 42.5 (8.9)
    Titans/Colts Over 38 (4.0)
    Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45.5 (3.6)
    Chiefs/Bengals Under 38 (3.5)
    Dolphins/Jets Over 42 (3.4)
    Jaguars/Ravens Over 35.5 (2.3)
    Browns/Steelers Over 32.5 (2.1)
    Redskins/49ers Over 37 (1.7)
    Cowboys/Eagles Under 43 (1.6)
    Panthers/Saints Over 53 (1.3)
    Broncos/Chargers Under 50 (0.1)
     
     
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Last week  10-6  (62.5%)
    Overall  71-44-2  (60.7%)
    Top 5  2-3 last week  21-18-1 Overall (52.5%)  At least the top 2 went 2-0.
     
    That makes 8 straight winning weeks with one to go ... I don't feel any leans this week for which way the lines will move so I am betting what I can get tomorrow.  Here ya go.
     
    Rams/Falcons Under 44 (13.1)
    Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (11.7)
    Patriots/Bills Over 42.5 (8.9)
    Titans/Colts Over 38 (4.0)
    Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45.5 (3.6)
    Chiefs/Bengals Under 38 (3.5)
    Dolphins/Jets Over 42 (3.4)
    Jaguars/Ravens Over 35.5 (2.3)
    Browns/Steelers Over 32.5 (2.1)
    Redskins/49ers Over 37 (1.7)
    Cowboys/Eagles Under 43 (1.6)
    Panthers/Saints Over 53 (1.3)
    Broncos/Chargers Under 50 (0.1)
     
     
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 23, 2008 - 5:18 PM ET #81

    Here is the whole list with all 16 games ... plus I made a few adjustments and updated some lines.  The underlined games are the 3 just added.

    Rams/Falcons Under 44.5 (9.6)
    Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (7.7)
    Patriots/Bills Over 42.5 (5.9)
    Giants/Vikings Over 42 (4.7)
    Titans/Colts Over 38 (4.0)
    Dolphins/Jets Over 41.5 (3.9)
    Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45 (3.4)
    Chiefs/Bengals Under 37.5 (3.0)
    Lions/Packers Over 42.5 (2.9)
    Browns/Steelers Over 32 (2.3)
    Jaguars/Ravens Over 35.5 (2.3)
    Redskins/49ers Over 37 (1.7)
    Panthers/Saints Over 53 (1.3)
    Bears/Texans Over 47 (1.2)
    Cowboys/Eagles Under 42.5 (1.1)
    Broncos/Chargers Under 50 (0.1)  If this goes to 49.5 or lower I would take the Over

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Here is the whole list with all 16 games ... plus I made a few adjustments and updated some lines.  The underlined games are the 3 just added.

    Rams/Falcons Under 44.5 (9.6)
    Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (7.7)
    Patriots/Bills Over 42.5 (5.9)
    Giants/Vikings Over 42 (4.7)
    Titans/Colts Over 38 (4.0)
    Dolphins/Jets Over 41.5 (3.9)
    Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45 (3.4)
    Chiefs/Bengals Under 37.5 (3.0)
    Lions/Packers Over 42.5 (2.9)
    Browns/Steelers Over 32 (2.3)
    Jaguars/Ravens Over 35.5 (2.3)
    Redskins/49ers Over 37 (1.7)
    Panthers/Saints Over 53 (1.3)
    Bears/Texans Over 47 (1.2)
    Cowboys/Eagles Under 42.5 (1.1)
    Broncos/Chargers Under 50 (0.1)  If this goes to 49.5 or lower I would take the Over

     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 28, 2008 - 4:10 AM ET #82

    Like last week I am combining systems and taking averages so it may seem a little confusing comparing the new ratings to the last post, but its the best I can do.  ie the ratings do not have a 1-1 relationship with the change in the spread like when I started.  These ratings most accurately reflect the picks as I see them as I write this now with the new lines.
     
    As i have done the past few weeks a negative number means the line moved in my favor (advantage to bet early) and a positive number means it moved against me and is better to bet now.  I barely won the battle of line moves this week, 7 games to 6
     
    Rams/Falcons Under 44 (9.3) -0.5
    Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (7.7) EV
    Patriots/Bills Over 40 (7.6) +2.5
    Giants/Vikings Over 41.5 (5.2) +0.5
    Chiefs/Bengals Under 38.5 (4) +1.0
    Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45.5 (3.6) +0.5
    Titans/Colts Over 39 (3) -1.0
    Lions/Packers Over 42.5 (2.9) EV
    Dolphins/Jets Over 43 (2.4) -1.5 
    Panthers/Saints Over 51.5 (2.1) +1.5
    Browns/Steelers Over 34 (1.3) -2.0  I have over 32 and will try and middle with Under 34
    Bears/Texans Over 47 (1.2) EV
    Redskins/49ers Over 37.5 (1.2) -0.5
    Jaguars/Ravens Over 37.5 (0.7) -2.0  I have over 35.5 and will try and middle with Under 37.5
    Broncos/Chargers Under 50.5 (0.6) +0.5
    Cowboys/Eagles Under 42 (0.6) -0.5
     
    This middle business could be fun for next year ... for Cle/Pit I have
    < 32 lose 0.1 unit
    =32 win 1 unit
    =33 win 2 units
    =34 win 1 unit
    > 34 lose 0.1 unit
     
    for Jax/Bal I have
    < 36 lose 0.1 unit
    =37 win 2 units
    =38 win 2 units
    > 38 lose 0.1 unit
     
    GL to everyone !!!
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Like last week I am combining systems and taking averages so it may seem a little confusing comparing the new ratings to the last post, but its the best I can do.  ie the ratings do not have a 1-1 relationship with the change in the spread like when I started.  These ratings most accurately reflect the picks as I see them as I write this now with the new lines.
     
    As i have done the past few weeks a negative number means the line moved in my favor (advantage to bet early) and a positive number means it moved against me and is better to bet now.  I barely won the battle of line moves this week, 7 games to 6
     
    Rams/Falcons Under 44 (9.3) -0.5
    Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (7.7) EV
    Patriots/Bills Over 40 (7.6) +2.5
    Giants/Vikings Over 41.5 (5.2) +0.5
    Chiefs/Bengals Under 38.5 (4) +1.0
    Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45.5 (3.6) +0.5
    Titans/Colts Over 39 (3) -1.0
    Lions/Packers Over 42.5 (2.9) EV
    Dolphins/Jets Over 43 (2.4) -1.5 
    Panthers/Saints Over 51.5 (2.1) +1.5
    Browns/Steelers Over 34 (1.3) -2.0  I have over 32 and will try and middle with Under 34
    Bears/Texans Over 47 (1.2) EV
    Redskins/49ers Over 37.5 (1.2) -0.5
    Jaguars/Ravens Over 37.5 (0.7) -2.0  I have over 35.5 and will try and middle with Under 37.5
    Broncos/Chargers Under 50.5 (0.6) +0.5
    Cowboys/Eagles Under 42 (0.6) -0.5
     
    This middle business could be fun for next year ... for Cle/Pit I have
    < 32 lose 0.1 unit
    =32 win 1 unit
    =33 win 2 units
    =34 win 1 unit
    > 34 lose 0.1 unit
     
    for Jax/Bal I have
    < 36 lose 0.1 unit
    =37 win 2 units
    =38 win 2 units
    > 38 lose 0.1 unit
     
    GL to everyone !!!
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 28, 2008 - 4:14 AM ET #83

    opps shoulda been for Jax/Bal
    < 36 lose 0.1 unit
    =36 win 2 units
    =37 win 2 units
    > 37 lose 0.1 unit 
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    opps shoulda been for Jax/Bal
    < 36 lose 0.1 unit
    =36 win 2 units
    =37 win 2 units
    > 37 lose 0.1 unit 
     
    gutcheck
    gutcheck
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2007
    Posts: 4195
    Posted: Dec. 28, 2008 - 9:18 AM ET #84

    Think you need to be a little careful this week since some teams will be resting the starters, ie. The Giants.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Think you need to be a little careful this week since some teams will be resting the starters, ie. The Giants.
     
    gasman33
    gasman33
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2006
    Posts: 1636
    Posted: Dec. 28, 2008 - 10:44 PM ET #85

    ....Tough way to finish...6-10
     
    played them all....
     
    thanks for some of the past weeks though...
     
    ...lets clean up in the playoffs kenyon...
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    ....Tough way to finish...6-10
     
    played them all....
     
    thanks for some of the past weeks though...
     
    ...lets clean up in the playoffs kenyon...
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 4:03 AM ET #86

    Gas,  If you went 6-10 you musta not followed one of my picks ... cuz it looks like 5-11 to me.   I sure was hoping for 9 winning weeks and above 60% but it just wasn't meant to be.  At least my Dolphins made the playoffs.  So here are the final numbers ...
     
    Last Week 5-11 (31.3%)
    Overall 76-55-2  (57.1 %)
    Top 5  0-5 last week  21-23-1 Overall (46.7%)
     
    55% is generally the goal of most systems, so I finished 2.1% above that, and should be happy, but this last week sure leaves a bad taste in my mouth.  Woulda been nice to hit those middle bets ... both only needed a field goal in the 4th to win, but nope.  At least those two basically ended in a push for me instead of losses.
     
    Anyway I was just working on the playoff numbers, and lo and behold I found a mistake in the last week predicitions.  It's kinda hard to tell how much of a difference it would of made, but I'm going to kinda explain some of my system and work through it and make a couple of posts as I chase down the error and give you options on the playoff picks.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Gas,  If you went 6-10 you musta not followed one of my picks ... cuz it looks like 5-11 to me.   I sure was hoping for 9 winning weeks and above 60% but it just wasn't meant to be.  At least my Dolphins made the playoffs.  So here are the final numbers ...
     
    Last Week 5-11 (31.3%)
    Overall 76-55-2  (57.1 %)
    Top 5  0-5 last week  21-23-1 Overall (46.7%)
     
    55% is generally the goal of most systems, so I finished 2.1% above that, and should be happy, but this last week sure leaves a bad taste in my mouth.  Woulda been nice to hit those middle bets ... both only needed a field goal in the 4th to win, but nope.  At least those two basically ended in a push for me instead of losses.
     
    Anyway I was just working on the playoff numbers, and lo and behold I found a mistake in the last week predicitions.  It's kinda hard to tell how much of a difference it would of made, but I'm going to kinda explain some of my system and work through it and make a couple of posts as I chase down the error and give you options on the playoff picks.
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 4:38 AM ET #87

    I'll give some basics of my system ... I use most major stats and boil it down to 4 numbers for each team.  Offense and Defense for the Home Team and for the Road Team.  So take the Off passing yards stat ... to figure that out I need to know the passing yards allowed by each team that off played.  Say they played 3 games ... Team A allowed 190 yds, Team B 210 yards and Team C 200 yards ... the average is 200 right?  Now, I look at the average passing off for the team in question ... say its 205.2 then they get a plus 5.2 rating.  If they had a off passing ave of 192.5 then the rating would be negative 7.5.  Do that for every team, every game, every stat, at home and on the road and you get the four numbers I was talking about in the beginning.
     
    So for each game on game day take the Team A offense #'s at home and subtract Team B def #'s on the road. Do that for each stat.  If Team A is better it will be a positive #, if Team B it will be negative.  Add them all together to get one number for who will win the game.  That's the "basics" of my system ... how I actually use that to predict scores is a bit more complicated, but here is a brief description.
     
    If you plot my numbers (the pos & neg) for say the home team vs past scores you hope to see a linear relationship,  ie low #'s low score, high #'s high score.  Determine the slope and intercept of the past data, then if I give you a number, you can predict the score.  Do the same for the road team and add them for the final score.
     
     
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    I'll give some basics of my system ... I use most major stats and boil it down to 4 numbers for each team.  Offense and Defense for the Home Team and for the Road Team.  So take the Off passing yards stat ... to figure that out I need to know the passing yards allowed by each team that off played.  Say they played 3 games ... Team A allowed 190 yds, Team B 210 yards and Team C 200 yards ... the average is 200 right?  Now, I look at the average passing off for the team in question ... say its 205.2 then they get a plus 5.2 rating.  If they had a off passing ave of 192.5 then the rating would be negative 7.5.  Do that for every team, every game, every stat, at home and on the road and you get the four numbers I was talking about in the beginning.
     
    So for each game on game day take the Team A offense #'s at home and subtract Team B def #'s on the road. Do that for each stat.  If Team A is better it will be a positive #, if Team B it will be negative.  Add them all together to get one number for who will win the game.  That's the "basics" of my system ... how I actually use that to predict scores is a bit more complicated, but here is a brief description.
     
    If you plot my numbers (the pos & neg) for say the home team vs past scores you hope to see a linear relationship,  ie low #'s low score, high #'s high score.  Determine the slope and intercept of the past data, then if I give you a number, you can predict the score.  Do the same for the road team and add them for the final score.
     
     
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 5:02 AM ET #88

    So last week I had something like this ...

    Dang. I can't use the Excel sheet I had here ... so I''ll have to improvise with a short version typed out.

    Rams     Off Road -8.5   Def Road -7.7

    Falcons  Off Home 3.8   Def Home 1.2

    So to get the Rams # I take (-8.5) - (1.2) = -9.7

    The Falcons is 3.8 - (-7.7) = 11.5

    Now wait a minute ... that is the simple way, what I actually do is multiply each of those numbers by a "weighting factor" before I subtract them.  Then I take those two numbers for each team and use the plot to find the score ... ie multiply by slope and add intercept.

    Now the mistake I made last week was the 2nd number in the weighting was zero ... ie the number was there but the formula in Excel used the cell below which was blank.  So the Rams # above looked more like this.

    (-8.5) * (weight #A) - (1.2) * (weight #B) = some #

    I won't include the weight #'s to avoid confusion ... anyway with weight #B = 0 it excludes the whole 2nd component of my formulas ... ie its FU'ed .. it did that for every game.

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    So last week I had something like this ...

    Dang. I can't use the Excel sheet I had here ... so I''ll have to improvise with a short version typed out.

    Rams     Off Road -8.5   Def Road -7.7

    Falcons  Off Home 3.8   Def Home 1.2

    So to get the Rams # I take (-8.5) - (1.2) = -9.7

    The Falcons is 3.8 - (-7.7) = 11.5

    Now wait a minute ... that is the simple way, what I actually do is multiply each of those numbers by a "weighting factor" before I subtract them.  Then I take those two numbers for each team and use the plot to find the score ... ie multiply by slope and add intercept.

    Now the mistake I made last week was the 2nd number in the weighting was zero ... ie the number was there but the formula in Excel used the cell below which was blank.  So the Rams # above looked more like this.

    (-8.5) * (weight #A) - (1.2) * (weight #B) = some #

    I won't include the weight #'s to avoid confusion ... anyway with weight #B = 0 it excludes the whole 2nd component of my formulas ... ie its FU'ed .. it did that for every game.

     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 5:28 AM ET #89

    Ok, so I will try and paste the numbers for every game last week.  There are the two teams, the first being the road team, then home team, then the road teams number, the home teams number, then the combined score for each game ... these are the numbers I used, the one with the mistake.
     
    Rams Falcons -13.0   2.6   31.4
    Jaguars Ravens -2.5   2.0   39.8
    Patriots Bills     13.6  -3.9   51.6
    Chiefs Bengals -7.0   -5.0   32.2
    Lions Packers  -1.0    2.6   42.7
    Bears Texans   -5.7   2.8    37.6
    Titans Colts     1.2    2.9    44.1
    Giants Vikings   6.0  -0.4   46.7
    Panthers Saints 0.9   8.3   47.3
    Dolphins Jets    4.8    3.6   47.8
    CowboysEagles -3.1  3.3   41.4
    Browns Steelers -3.9 -2.6   36.7
    Raiders Bucs     -7.0  -0.4  34.6
    Hawks Cardinals -5.2  2.9  38.2
    Broncos Chargs -0.7   3.2  43.2
    Redskins 49ers  -1.9  0.0   38.7
     
    Here the corrected numbers
    Rams Falcons -11.8 12.7   39.0
    Jaguars Ravens -16.7 6.3   28.9
    Patriots Bills 10.2 -10.3     44.3
    Chiefs Bengals -3.2 -14.3   30.0
    Lions Packers 1.6 8.1       48.8
    Bears Texans -3.7 7.4       42.4
    Titans Colts -8.4 2.0          34.3
    Giants Vikings 1.4 -1.2      41.8
    Panthers Saints 4.6 26.0   62.1
    Dolphins Jets 9.9 7.9        55.4
    Cowboys Eagles -7.6 10.8 41.8
    Browns Steelers -9.6 -5.8  29.2
    Raiders Bucs -11.1 -0.3    30.8
    Hawks Cardinals 2.1 9.7   49.5
    Broncos Chargers -4.0 9.9  44.3
    Redskins 49ers 6.0 -0.2     46.1
     
    The key being the last numbers .. they are my predicted scores.  As you can see they are quite different.  Take those numbers and subtract the Vegas line and you have it ... Under or Over. 
     
    I used that basic system for the first 6 weeks I think it was ... then I created another one that was more like what I created for the NBA, it also only used the last 6 or 7 games instead of whole season.  So then I had a second set of "lines."   The only difference in the two is how i generate the four numbers, after that it is the same.  The "mistake" I made was in the 2nd system and are the numbers above.  That system alone only went 3-13 last week.
     
    Ok, almost done ... going to start a new post. 
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Ok, so I will try and paste the numbers for every game last week.  There are the two teams, the first being the road team, then home team, then the road teams number, the home teams number, then the combined score for each game ... these are the numbers I used, the one with the mistake.
     
    Rams Falcons -13.0   2.6   31.4
    Jaguars Ravens -2.5   2.0   39.8
    Patriots Bills     13.6  -3.9   51.6
    Chiefs Bengals -7.0   -5.0   32.2
    Lions Packers  -1.0    2.6   42.7
    Bears Texans   -5.7   2.8    37.6
    Titans Colts     1.2    2.9    44.1
    Giants Vikings   6.0  -0.4   46.7
    Panthers Saints 0.9   8.3   47.3
    Dolphins Jets    4.8    3.6   47.8
    CowboysEagles -3.1  3.3   41.4
    Browns Steelers -3.9 -2.6   36.7
    Raiders Bucs     -7.0  -0.4  34.6
    Hawks Cardinals -5.2  2.9  38.2
    Broncos Chargs -0.7   3.2  43.2
    Redskins 49ers  -1.9  0.0   38.7
     
    Here the corrected numbers
    Rams Falcons -11.8 12.7   39.0
    Jaguars Ravens -16.7 6.3   28.9
    Patriots Bills 10.2 -10.3     44.3
    Chiefs Bengals -3.2 -14.3   30.0
    Lions Packers 1.6 8.1       48.8
    Bears Texans -3.7 7.4       42.4
    Titans Colts -8.4 2.0          34.3
    Giants Vikings 1.4 -1.2      41.8
    Panthers Saints 4.6 26.0   62.1
    Dolphins Jets 9.9 7.9        55.4
    Cowboys Eagles -7.6 10.8 41.8
    Browns Steelers -9.6 -5.8  29.2
    Raiders Bucs -11.1 -0.3    30.8
    Hawks Cardinals 2.1 9.7   49.5
    Broncos Chargers -4.0 9.9  44.3
    Redskins 49ers 6.0 -0.2     46.1
     
    The key being the last numbers .. they are my predicted scores.  As you can see they are quite different.  Take those numbers and subtract the Vegas line and you have it ... Under or Over. 
     
    I used that basic system for the first 6 weeks I think it was ... then I created another one that was more like what I created for the NBA, it also only used the last 6 or 7 games instead of whole season.  So then I had a second set of "lines."   The only difference in the two is how i generate the four numbers, after that it is the same.  The "mistake" I made was in the 2nd system and are the numbers above.  That system alone only went 3-13 last week.
     
    Ok, almost done ... going to start a new post. 
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 6:00 AM ET #90

    So what I did the last three weeks was take the two systems and "average" the predicitions.  Here are the numbers for the "old system," this time with just my predicited final score and the OU pick.  BTW the old system went 9-7 last week.
     
    Rams Falcons 31.4 Under
    Jaguars Ravens 39.8 Over
    Patriots Bills 51.6 Over
    Chiefs Bengals 32.2 Under
    Lions Packers 42.7 Over
    Bears Texans 37.6 Under
    Titans Colts 44.1 Over
    Giants Vikings 46.7 Over
    Panthers Saints 47.3 Under
    Dolphins Jets 47.8 Over
    Cowboys Eagles 41.4 Under
    Browns Steelers 36.7 Over
    Raiders Bucs 34.6 Under
    Seahawks Cardinals 38.2 Under
    Broncos Chargers 43.2 Under
    Redskins 49ers 38.7 Over
     
    Ok, so if I take both systems and average the predicted final score I get this ...
     
    Rams Falcons 30.9 Under
    Jaguars Ravens 36.8 Over
    Patriots Bills 51.4 Over
    Chiefs Bengals 34.5 Under
    Lions Packers 48.4 Over
    Bears Texans 48.2 Over
    Titans Colts 42.0 Over
    Giants Vikings 49.0 Over
    Panthers Saints 55.6 Over
    Dolphins Jets 45.4 Over
    Cowboys Eagles 48.2 Over
    Browns Steelers 29.9 Under
    Raiders Bucs 27.3 Under
    Seahawks Cardinals 48.9 Over
    Broncos Chargers 49.9 Under
    Redskins 49ers 30.2 Under
     
    Now this combination would have gone 7-9 last week, but I wasn't done yet ... on games where both systems agreed on the over or under i used the average, but what do you do when they don't agree?  I figured the average was not really a good indication ... one says 10 points over the other says 2 points under ... hmmm.  So what I did for those games was look at each system and kinda generate my own numbers, or just picked one system over the other.  So then I was done ... all I do then is subtract my predicted line from the Vegas line to get my so called "rating".  I posted this ... here is the unsorted version so it matches the previous order.
     
    Rams/Falcons Under 44 (13.1)
    Jaguars/Ravens Over 35.5 (2.3)
    Patriots/Bills Over 42.5 (8.9)
    Chiefs/Bengals Under 38 (3.5)
    Lions/Packers Over 42.5 (2.9)
    Bears/Texans Over 47 (1.2)
    Titans/Colts Over 38 (4)
    Giants/Vikings Over 42 (4.7)
    Panthers/Saints Over 53 (1.3)
    Dolphins/Jets Over 42 (3.4)
    Cowboys/Eagles Under 43 (1.6)
    Browns/Steelers Over 32.5 (2.1)
    Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (11.7)
    Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45.5 (3.6)
    Broncos/Chargers Under 50 (0.1)
    Redskins/49ers Over 37 (1.7)
     
    This final version went 5-11 !!!
     
    So see it is not easy to figure out how much the error played in the final version, but it was obviously a big part in this final week breakdown.  I may look into more tomorrow.
     
    Now what I am going to do for the playoffs is give you all three versions.  The original system, the new NBA type version,  and maybe I will combine them and give what I have the last three weeks.  Hopefully none will have a mistake in it.  LOL
     
    I hope you enjoyed my dialog of how I have provided you with my NFL picks the past 9 weeks and why I was not really able to simply answer some of the questions I received in the beginning.  I look to make refinements and try again next year.  It was fun.
     
    kenYON
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    So what I did the last three weeks was take the two systems and "average" the predicitions.  Here are the numbers for the "old system," this time with just my predicited final score and the OU pick.  BTW the old system went 9-7 last week.
     
    Rams Falcons 31.4 Under
    Jaguars Ravens 39.8 Over
    Patriots Bills 51.6 Over
    Chiefs Bengals 32.2 Under
    Lions Packers 42.7 Over
    Bears Texans 37.6 Under
    Titans Colts 44.1 Over
    Giants Vikings 46.7 Over
    Panthers Saints 47.3 Under
    Dolphins Jets 47.8 Over
    Cowboys Eagles 41.4 Under
    Browns Steelers 36.7 Over
    Raiders Bucs 34.6 Under
    Seahawks Cardinals 38.2 Under
    Broncos Chargers 43.2 Under
    Redskins 49ers 38.7 Over
     
    Ok, so if I take both systems and average the predicted final score I get this ...
     
    Rams Falcons 30.9 Under
    Jaguars Ravens 36.8 Over
    Patriots Bills 51.4 Over
    Chiefs Bengals 34.5 Under
    Lions Packers 48.4 Over
    Bears Texans 48.2 Over
    Titans Colts 42.0 Over
    Giants Vikings 49.0 Over
    Panthers Saints 55.6 Over
    Dolphins Jets 45.4 Over
    Cowboys Eagles 48.2 Over
    Browns Steelers 29.9 Under
    Raiders Bucs 27.3 Under
    Seahawks Cardinals 48.9 Over
    Broncos Chargers 49.9 Under
    Redskins 49ers 30.2 Under
     
    Now this combination would have gone 7-9 last week, but I wasn't done yet ... on games where both systems agreed on the over or under i used the average, but what do you do when they don't agree?  I figured the average was not really a good indication ... one says 10 points over the other says 2 points under ... hmmm.  So what I did for those games was look at each system and kinda generate my own numbers, or just picked one system over the other.  So then I was done ... all I do then is subtract my predicted line from the Vegas line to get my so called "rating".  I posted this ... here is the unsorted version so it matches the previous order.
     
    Rams/Falcons Under 44 (13.1)
    Jaguars/Ravens Over 35.5 (2.3)
    Patriots/Bills Over 42.5 (8.9)
    Chiefs/Bengals Under 38 (3.5)
    Lions/Packers Over 42.5 (2.9)
    Bears/Texans Over 47 (1.2)
    Titans/Colts Over 38 (4)
    Giants/Vikings Over 42 (4.7)
    Panthers/Saints Over 53 (1.3)
    Dolphins/Jets Over 42 (3.4)
    Cowboys/Eagles Under 43 (1.6)
    Browns/Steelers Over 32.5 (2.1)
    Raiders/Bucs Under 39 (11.7)
    Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45.5 (3.6)
    Broncos/Chargers Under 50 (0.1)
    Redskins/49ers Over 37 (1.7)
     
    This final version went 5-11 !!!
     
    So see it is not easy to figure out how much the error played in the final version, but it was obviously a big part in this final week breakdown.  I may look into more tomorrow.
     
    Now what I am going to do for the playoffs is give you all three versions.  The original system, the new NBA type version,  and maybe I will combine them and give what I have the last three weeks.  Hopefully none will have a mistake in it.  LOL
     
    I hope you enjoyed my dialog of how I have provided you with my NFL picks the past 9 weeks and why I was not really able to simply answer some of the questions I received in the beginning.  I look to make refinements and try again next year.  It was fun.
     
    kenYON
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 6:35 AM ET #91

    Ok for the Playoffs here is the new system ... (more like NBA system and only includes last 6 or 7 games ... and the old system (includes entire season #'s)
     
    I included following each team the one number I generate as explained earlier.  Then is my predicted total, the Vegas line, the difference (rating) and the pick.
     
    NEW SYSTEM
    Falcons 7.5 Cardinals 3.5    50.6    50.5    0.1  Over
    Colts   -1.8  Chargers 8.8     44.9    50      5.1  Under
    Ravens 5.6  Dolphins -9.9     40.9    37      3.9  Over
    Eagles -3.6 Vikings   -2.8     36.4    42      5.6  Under
     
    OLD SYSTEM
    Falcons 9.5 Cardinals  4.0    66.9    50.5   16.4  Over
    Colts    1.6  Chargers  4.9    51.3    50      1.3  Over
    Ravens 1.7  Dolphins  -8.7    39.4    37     2.4  Over
    Eagles 1.3  Vikings    -0.5    46.1    42     4.1  Over
     
    I'll let you mull over these numbers some and probably combine them like I have the past 3 weeks and come up with my final predictions tomorrow.  Maybe you can see the dilemma I faced choosing between two systems ... I'm actually having the same problem in the NBA, that is choosing between two systems.
     
    BTW I did not "update" any stats like I did all season ... I am just treating these games like they are week 17 games ... ie I did not use any of yesterdays stats.
     
     

     
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Ok for the Playoffs here is the new system ... (more like NBA system and only includes last 6 or 7 games ... and the old system (includes entire season #'s)
     
    I included following each team the one number I generate as explained earlier.  Then is my predicted total, the Vegas line, the difference (rating) and the pick.
     
    NEW SYSTEM
    Falcons 7.5 Cardinals 3.5    50.6    50.5    0.1  Over
    Colts   -1.8  Chargers 8.8     44.9    50      5.1  Under
    Ravens 5.6  Dolphins -9.9     40.9    37      3.9  Over
    Eagles -3.6 Vikings   -2.8     36.4    42      5.6  Under
     
    OLD SYSTEM
    Falcons 9.5 Cardinals  4.0    66.9    50.5   16.4  Over
    Colts    1.6  Chargers  4.9    51.3    50      1.3  Over
    Ravens 1.7  Dolphins  -8.7    39.4    37     2.4  Over
    Eagles 1.3  Vikings    -0.5    46.1    42     4.1  Over
     
    I'll let you mull over these numbers some and probably combine them like I have the past 3 weeks and come up with my final predictions tomorrow.  Maybe you can see the dilemma I faced choosing between two systems ... I'm actually having the same problem in the NBA, that is choosing between two systems.
     
    BTW I did not "update" any stats like I did all season ... I am just treating these games like they are week 17 games ... ie I did not use any of yesterdays stats.
     
     

     
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 7:03 AM ET #92

    Opps, I posted the error results 2 posts above where I meant to post the old system results... notice the #'s are the same?  So here is what I meant to go there.
     
    Rams Falcons 30.3 Under L
    Jaguars Ravens 33.8 Under W
    Patriots Bills 51.2 Over L
    Chiefs Bengals 36.8 Under W
    Lions Packers 54.0 Over W
    Bears Texans 58.9 Over W
    Titans Colts 40.0 Over L
    Giants Vikings 51.3 Over L
    Panthers Saints 64.0 Over W
    Dolphins Jets 43.0 Over L
    Cowboys Eagles 54.9 Over W
    Browns Steelers 23.0 Under W
    Raiders Bucs 19.9 Under L
    Seahawks Cardinals 59.5 Over W
    Broncos Chargers 56.6 Over W
    Redskins 49ers 21.6 Under L
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Opps, I posted the error results 2 posts above where I meant to post the old system results... notice the #'s are the same?  So here is what I meant to go there.
     
    Rams Falcons 30.3 Under L
    Jaguars Ravens 33.8 Under W
    Patriots Bills 51.2 Over L
    Chiefs Bengals 36.8 Under W
    Lions Packers 54.0 Over W
    Bears Texans 58.9 Over W
    Titans Colts 40.0 Over L
    Giants Vikings 51.3 Over L
    Panthers Saints 64.0 Over W
    Dolphins Jets 43.0 Over L
    Cowboys Eagles 54.9 Over W
    Browns Steelers 23.0 Under W
    Raiders Bucs 19.9 Under L
    Seahawks Cardinals 59.5 Over W
    Broncos Chargers 56.6 Over W
    Redskins 49ers 21.6 Under L
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 7:23 AM ET #93

    Funny .. I just noticed above where the old system hit the Car/NO game exactly right .. 64 points.  Some games are way off tho .. ie NE/Buf and Oak/TB but most are pretty damn close ...
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Funny .. I just noticed above where the old system hit the Car/NO game exactly right .. 64 points.  Some games are way off tho .. ie NE/Buf and Oak/TB but most are pretty damn close ...
     
    gasman33
    gasman33
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2006
    Posts: 1636
    Posted: Jan. 3, 2009 - 1:36 PM ET #94

    ......looks like the bets are.....
     
    Falcons/Cardinals.....Over
    Colts/Chargers......Under
    Ravens/Dolphins...... Over
    Eagles/Vikings.....Under
     
    .......ya think????
     
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    ......looks like the bets are.....
     
    Falcons/Cardinals.....Over
    Colts/Chargers......Under
    Ravens/Dolphins...... Over
    Eagles/Vikings.....Under
     
    .......ya think????
     
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Jan. 3, 2009 - 3:22 PM ET #95

    Thats' what the new system likes but I'm more inclined to follow the old system ... I looked closer at the Off vs Def stats for these and decided on.
     
    Atl/Ari Over
    Ind/SD Over
    Bal/Mia Under
    Phi/Min Under
     
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Thats' what the new system likes but I'm more inclined to follow the old system ... I looked closer at the Off vs Def stats for these and decided on.
     
    Atl/Ari Over
    Ind/SD Over
    Bal/Mia Under
    Phi/Min Under
     
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2009 - 6:20 AM ET #96

    Good job Gas ... we both went 3-1 with our picks ...
     
    Last Week 3-1  75%
    Overall  79-56-2  57.7%
     
    Here's a little more insight on my system.
     
    Road Off vs Home Def #'s
                   Pass  Rate  Rush  Scoring
    Ravens      -39     -29     27     -16
    Cardinals    40     11     -45      4
    Eagles        33     -10     -28     9
    Chargers     -7     14     -101    -17
     
    Home Off vs Road Def #'s
                   Pass  Rate  Rush  Scor
    Titans      -43      -59     -9       -9
    Panthers   -6       42      27      42
    Giants      -19      1       23      24
    Steelers    34      26     -32      3
     
    And then them combined
                               Pass  Rate  Rush  Scor
    Ravens/Titans        -83     -88     18     -26
    Cardinals/Panthers  33     52     -18      46
    Eagles/Giants         14     -9      -5       33
    Chargers/Steelers    27     40   -133    -14
    Here are the New System picks
                                   Line   Me     Dif    Pick
    Ravens/Titans          34       47.5    13.5  Over
    Cardinals/Panthers  48.5    45.1     3.4    Under
    Eagles/Giants          39     46.1     7.1    Over
    Chargers/Steelers     38     30.3     7.7    Under
     
    Old System
                                   Line    Me     Dif    Pick
    Ravens/Titans          34       31.9     2.1    Under
    Cardinals/Panthers  48.5     53.9     5.4    Over
    Eagles/Giants          39       57.6    18.6   Over
    Chargers/Steelers     38      33.6     4.4    Under
     
    So both systems agree on
    Phi/Gia Over and
    SD/Pit  Under
     
    Looking at the Phi/Gia game #'s ... first off the Scoring #'s are 9 and 24 so that is good for the over.  Phi has 33 in Pass but neg 28 in run and the Giants have 23 in rush.  So the best bet for the over is to have Phi get out to an early lead and force NY to pass.  If NY gets an early lead it could be trouble, cuz they will grind the clock with runs.
    Prediction Phil 27  NY 14  Over
     
    SD/Pit ... It all depends on how that little squirt RB for SD does ... he scares me and could break some runs.  Other then that I don't see the SD Off having much for the Pitt D.  Looks like Pit has decent passing #'s against the SD defense, but if they get the lead they will try and run and hopefully not do too much passing.  Looks like a field position game to me and a lot of punts.
    Prediction  Pitt  17  SD 10  Under
     
    Now the trickier games wher the systems disagree.
    Bal/Ten ... both teams have awful scoring #'s for a total of neg 16.  Actually both team have nothing but neg numbers, except for 27 rushing for the Ravens.  So I am going to have to take the under even tho the new system has the line at 47.5
    Prediction Bal 14  Ten 13  Under
     
    Ari/Car ... the new system has an under and the old an over, that kinda seems backwards to me.  The new system uses the latter part of the season and Car has been lighting it up lately ... I guess Ari has been scoring lower lately.  Looking at the #'s it looks like an over, but something tells me Ari is going to have a hard time scoring.  I like the Panthers and the under.
    Prediction Car 30 Ari 17 Under (just barely)
     
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Good job Gas ... we both went 3-1 with our picks ...
     
    Last Week 3-1  75%
    Overall  79-56-2  57.7%
     
    Here's a little more insight on my system.
     
    Road Off vs Home Def #'s
                   Pass  Rate  Rush  Scoring
    Ravens      -39     -29     27     -16
    Cardinals    40     11     -45      4
    Eagles        33     -10     -28     9
    Chargers     -7     14     -101    -17
     
    Home Off vs Road Def #'s
                   Pass  Rate  Rush  Scor
    Titans      -43      -59     -9       -9
    Panthers   -6       42      27      42
    Giants      -19      1       23      24
    Steelers    34      26     -32      3
     
    And then them combined
                               Pass  Rate  Rush  Scor
    Ravens/Titans        -83     -88     18     -26
    Cardinals/Panthers  33     52     -18      46
    Eagles/Giants         14     -9      -5       33
    Chargers/Steelers    27     40   -133    -14
    Here are the New System picks
                                   Line   Me     Dif    Pick
    Ravens/Titans          34       47.5    13.5  Over
    Cardinals/Panthers  48.5    45.1     3.4    Under
    Eagles/Giants          39     46.1     7.1    Over
    Chargers/Steelers     38     30.3     7.7    Under
     
    Old System
                                   Line    Me     Dif    Pick
    Ravens/Titans          34       31.9     2.1    Under
    Cardinals/Panthers  48.5     53.9     5.4    Over
    Eagles/Giants          39       57.6    18.6   Over
    Chargers/Steelers     38      33.6     4.4    Under
     
    So both systems agree on
    Phi/Gia Over and
    SD/Pit  Under
     
    Looking at the Phi/Gia game #'s ... first off the Scoring #'s are 9 and 24 so that is good for the over.  Phi has 33 in Pass but neg 28 in run and the Giants have 23 in rush.  So the best bet for the over is to have Phi get out to an early lead and force NY to pass.  If NY gets an early lead it could be trouble, cuz they will grind the clock with runs.
    Prediction Phil 27  NY 14  Over
     
    SD/Pit ... It all depends on how that little squirt RB for SD does ... he scares me and could break some runs.  Other then that I don't see the SD Off having much for the Pitt D.  Looks like Pit has decent passing #'s against the SD defense, but if they get the lead they will try and run and hopefully not do too much passing.  Looks like a field position game to me and a lot of punts.
    Prediction  Pitt  17  SD 10  Under
     
    Now the trickier games wher the systems disagree.
    Bal/Ten ... both teams have awful scoring #'s for a total of neg 16.  Actually both team have nothing but neg numbers, except for 27 rushing for the Ravens.  So I am going to have to take the under even tho the new system has the line at 47.5
    Prediction Bal 14  Ten 13  Under
     
    Ari/Car ... the new system has an under and the old an over, that kinda seems backwards to me.  The new system uses the latter part of the season and Car has been lighting it up lately ... I guess Ari has been scoring lower lately.  Looking at the #'s it looks like an over, but something tells me Ari is going to have a hard time scoring.  I like the Panthers and the under.
    Prediction Car 30 Ari 17 Under (just barely)
     
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 1:08 AM ET #97

    2-0 
     
    Pretty much hit those projected scores right on the head, you have to switch Ari and Car team wise, but I am only after the totals, so who cares.  LOL
     
    Car scared the crap out of me going for 2 at the end, and I had under 48, woulda made it a push.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    2-0 
     
    Pretty much hit those projected scores right on the head, you have to switch Ari and Car team wise, but I am only after the totals, so who cares.  LOL
     
    Car scared the crap out of me going for 2 at the end, and I had under 48, woulda made it a push.
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Jan. 18, 2009 - 5:49 AM ET #98

    Last Week 2-2  50%
    Overall 81-58-2  57.4%
    Playoffs 5-3  62.5%
     
    For only the sixth time in history we will have a "Bird Team" in the Super Bowl.  Only once has a bird team won, SB 35 Ravens 34 Giants 7.  Ravens are only bird team in the AFC.  Four of the 5 bird teams made the playoffs, with a record 3 still alive.  Eagles fly to Phoenix.  NY Geese take down Jet(s).
     
    Phi 14  Ari 26  Under 47
     
    Bal 19  Pit 14  Under 34
     
     
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Last Week 2-2  50%
    Overall 81-58-2  57.4%
    Playoffs 5-3  62.5%
     
    For only the sixth time in history we will have a "Bird Team" in the Super Bowl.  Only once has a bird team won, SB 35 Ravens 34 Giants 7.  Ravens are only bird team in the AFC.  Four of the 5 bird teams made the playoffs, with a record 3 still alive.  Eagles fly to Phoenix.  NY Geese take down Jet(s).
     
    Phi 14  Ari 26  Under 47
     
    Bal 19  Pit 14  Under 34
     
     
     
    gasman33
    gasman33
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2006
    Posts: 1636
    Posted: Jan. 18, 2009 - 11:12 AM ET #99

    I like both picks on sides and UNDER Bal/Pit...
     
    ....but I think Phi/Ari goes OVER....
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    I like both picks on sides and UNDER Bal/Pit...
     
    ....but I think Phi/Ari goes OVER....
     
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 345
    Posted: Jan. 31, 2009 - 8:25 AM ET #100

    Last Week 0-2  0%
    Overall  81-60-2  56.6%
    Playoffs 5-5  50%
     
    Gotta hit this to reach 55% in the playoffs ...
     
    The Pit def is twice the Phi def ... Ari gets stopped.  Pit runs and milks clock.
     
    Pit 20    Ari 17  Under 46.5
     
     
     
     
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Last Week 0-2  0%
    Overall  81-60-2  56.6%
    Playoffs 5-5  50%
     
    Gotta hit this to reach 55% in the playoffs ...
     
    The Pit def is twice the Phi def ... Ari gets stopped.  Pit runs and milks clock.
     
    Pit 20    Ari 17  Under 46.5
     
     
     
     
    All Forums | Systems & Strategies
    «First Previous 1234

    Hot Forums IconHot Forum Topics

    • 🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵 449,485 Covers arrow
    • Giants vs Rams MNF in-game live 2,481 Covers arrow
    • Monday 09/21/2026 460 Covers arrow
    • Serious Streak Survivor Strategies 1,918,168 Covers arrow
    • ***Macwesties * Mon. Sept. 21, 2026 * Birthday * NFL * MNF * Football Play*** 4,111 Covers arrow
    • NFL LOCKED IN! 99,546 Covers arrow
    • New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams 5,053 Covers arrow
    • Where are they getting enough explosive offense to separate from New York by more than a touchdown 2,561 Covers arrow
    • ?? KBO Plays 🥎 14,768 Covers arrow
    • Monday Night 4,395 Covers arrow

    Warning - External Link

    Report User

    Thank you for reporting
    This content is abusive or harmful
    This post is spam
    An error has occurred
    This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

    Delete Post

    Are you sure you would like to remove this post?

    Remove Thread

    Are you sure you would like to remove this thread?

    Scan Results

    Login/Register

    Happy to have you join the conversation. To do so, please login or create an account.
    Accounts are free and easy to create.

    Search


    Loading…

    Loading…

    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gambling
    Betting Sites
    US Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Ultimate Race
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Join our community today
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    21+
    Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
    Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
    YouTube logo
    Facebook logo
    Twitter logo
    Instagram logo
    LinkedIn logo
    Google News logo
    Covers is verified safe by:
    Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.