KWR, Nice catch, I was wondering if anyone would notice, its been that way the past two weeks, but I didn't post twice last week. What happens is I get a number for the line, then depending on the magnitude of the difference, I either divide by 4, by 2 or some not at all. So when the line changed, the math provided differences like you see. I explained when I first posted the new system numbers that the magnitude was different, but that you would probably not notice. What I am trying to do is make the ratings similiar to what they were previously.
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KWR, Nice catch, I was wondering if anyone would notice, its been that way the past two weeks, but I didn't post twice last week. What happens is I get a number for the line, then depending on the magnitude of the difference, I either divide by 4, by 2 or some not at all. So when the line changed, the math provided differences like you see. I explained when I first posted the new system numbers that the magnitude was different, but that you would probably not notice. What I am trying to do is make the ratings similiar to what they were previously.
Ohhh, you took the Over on the Phi/Gia game ??? I said in the first post I was thinking of fading the system. Then in the following posts I said I took the under. I thought it was clear who I liked. But you listened on fading the StL/Ari game which costs us both an L. I squeaked out a win on the Cle/Ten < 42.5. The Atl/NO game was a tossup ... and you got the short end on that too. Sorry Gas. I can't advise on doubling up ... but then again I'm 7-4 on $$ games so far..
Well I need the remaining two games to go 10-6 for the week. 12 Unders and only 2 Overs so far ... hmmmm
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Ohhh, you took the Over on the Phi/Gia game ??? I said in the first post I was thinking of fading the system. Then in the following posts I said I took the under. I thought it was clear who I liked. But you listened on fading the StL/Ari game which costs us both an L. I squeaked out a win on the Cle/Ten < 42.5. The Atl/NO game was a tossup ... and you got the short end on that too. Sorry Gas. I can't advise on doubling up ... but then again I'm 7-4 on $$ games so far..
Well I need the remaining two games to go 10-6 for the week. 12 Unders and only 2 Overs so far ... hmmmm
i show the entire card as 8-6 so far with the ravens game lookin good and going to 9-6. i think the system wins tommorow also bringing it to 10-6 60%. thats right on target the lines i used are thru my local book also, thats how i judge it
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k,
i show the entire card as 8-6 so far with the ravens game lookin good and going to 9-6. i think the system wins tommorow also bringing it to 10-6 60%. thats right on target the lines i used are thru my local book also, thats how i judge it
i followed one two years ago and had a streak of 12 wins in a row but i cannot remember how it went but i think it was based on defense pass yards i believe
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k,
do you have a system for the BOWL games
i followed one two years ago and had a streak of 12 wins in a row but i cannot remember how it went but i think it was based on defense pass yards i believe
Thanks r8dr, that's the way I see it as well ... Nope, I don't have a system for bowl games.
Gas, excuse me but where did I say the top 5 was 4-1 ??? I said I was 7-4 (now 8-4) on $$ games. I was planning on betting all the games this week, but when I went to the casino on Tuesday the Atl/No and Min/Det games were "off" and I did not bet them.
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Thanks r8dr, that's the way I see it as well ... Nope, I don't have a system for bowl games.
Gas, excuse me but where did I say the top 5 was 4-1 ??? I said I was 7-4 (now 8-4) on $$ games. I was planning on betting all the games this week, but when I went to the casino on Tuesday the Atl/No and Min/Det games were "off" and I did not bet them.
Yep, Mike Jordan from my 7th grade yearbook. I used to play basketball with him in the mornings before school. Then in 8th grade he went to another school and I played against him on the school team. He also enjoyed "pitching pennies."
Not sure how you went 2-4-1 Gas ... I went 4-3 and didn't play two of the losses, so 4-1 for me.
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would imagine he was referring to this post.
Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:
Yep, Mike Jordan from my 7th grade yearbook. I used to play basketball with him in the mornings before school. Then in 8th grade he went to another school and I played against him on the school team. He also enjoyed "pitching pennies."
Not sure how you went 2-4-1 Gas ... I went 4-3 and didn't play two of the losses, so 4-1 for me.
ok, same explanation with that post ... the 4-1 reference says nothing about the top 5 picks !!!! The system went 4-3 in the morning and I didn't play (bet or whatever) the Atl/No and Min/Det games, so at the point I was 4-1 with my $$ plays. $$ plays is not the same as top 5 so I guess that is where the confusion lies. LOL
FWIW Lately the top 5 are doing no better then the rest so who gives a crap. I don't see many others picking at 63%.
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ok, same explanation with that post ... the 4-1 reference says nothing about the top 5 picks !!!! The system went 4-3 in the morning and I didn't play (bet or whatever) the Atl/No and Min/Det games, so at the point I was 4-1 with my $$ plays. $$ plays is not the same as top 5 so I guess that is where the confusion lies. LOL
FWIW Lately the top 5 are doing no better then the rest so who gives a crap. I don't see many others picking at 63%.
I was just pointing out what he was misunderstanding. Obviously he was very discouraged because he was having a bad day. Nice work with this system and best of luck going forward.
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I was just pointing out what he was misunderstanding. Obviously he was very discouraged because he was having a bad day. Nice work with this system and best of luck going forward.
The top 5 have really taken a beating lately, so I don't know about my revised rating system. Still haven't had a losing week so I guess it's working, but coming down to Earth a bit.
Last Week 9-7 (56.3%)
Overall 51-31-1 (61.4%)
Top Five 1-4 Overall 18-12 (60.0%)
Titans/Texans Over 44 (4.8) Giants/Cowboys Over 44 (4.7) Vikings/Cardinals Over 49 (4.4) Saints/Bears Over 44 (4.1) Patriots/Raiders Under 40 (3.7) Redskins/Bengals Under 36.5 (3.4) Chargers/Chiefs Over 46.5 (3) Packers/Jaguars Over 45 (2.8) Lions/Colts Under 44.5 (2.8) 49ers/Dolphins Under 41.5 (2.7) Bills/Jets Over 42 (2.6) Seahawks/Rams Under 43.5 (1.9) Browns/Eagles Over 38.5 (1.4) Steelers/Ravens Under 34.5 (0.4) Bucs/Falcons Broncos/Panthers
Nothing special about the underlined games just the Thur and Mon games. No adjustments have been made for weather, although 6 games this week could be effected. Here's to a great Week 15!
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Oh ok Hegg .. its all good.
The top 5 have really taken a beating lately, so I don't know about my revised rating system. Still haven't had a losing week so I guess it's working, but coming down to Earth a bit.
Last Week 9-7 (56.3%)
Overall 51-31-1 (61.4%)
Top Five 1-4 Overall 18-12 (60.0%)
Titans/Texans Over 44 (4.8) Giants/Cowboys Over 44 (4.7) Vikings/Cardinals Over 49 (4.4) Saints/Bears Over 44 (4.1) Patriots/Raiders Under 40 (3.7) Redskins/Bengals Under 36.5 (3.4) Chargers/Chiefs Over 46.5 (3) Packers/Jaguars Over 45 (2.8) Lions/Colts Under 44.5 (2.8) 49ers/Dolphins Under 41.5 (2.7) Bills/Jets Over 42 (2.6) Seahawks/Rams Under 43.5 (1.9) Browns/Eagles Over 38.5 (1.4) Steelers/Ravens Under 34.5 (0.4) Bucs/Falcons Broncos/Panthers
Nothing special about the underlined games just the Thur and Mon games. No adjustments have been made for weather, although 6 games this week could be effected. Here's to a great Week 15!
Kenyonlv First of all, thank you for all the hard work you put into your system and for posting. It's a thankless job most times. I'm gona tail your nba plays for a bit as well starting tonight and your nfl this weekend. My question to you would be, can you post your final plays for sunday in the morning and should i just play the top 5 only? Thanx in advance from a struggling gambler!
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Kenyonlv First of all, thank you for all the hard work you put into your system and for posting. It's a thankless job most times. I'm gona tail your nba plays for a bit as well starting tonight and your nfl this weekend. My question to you would be, can you post your final plays for sunday in the morning and should i just play the top 5 only? Thanx in advance from a struggling gambler!
Maniac, Thanks for the support ... Yea, I work hard at this can you tell ? LOL What I have learned in my short betting span, is when struggling bet more games with the system. To me it cuts your losses and also your winnings, but it takes out the risk of going belly up when you bet 3, 4 or 5 and they lose. I also bet early, most of the times I come out ahead, but a few times I get stuck with a worse line. What I have done is bet most all the NFL games since I have been posting and I have come out ahead each week. (The NBA I do different, I bet the top picks.)
Last week I went to the casino prepared to bet all the OU's and two were off the board. Turned out they were losers with the system, so I got lucky and the system went 9-7, but I came out a bigger winner at 9-5. So I am playing that strategy again this week ... three games were off, the ones with *** following below. So I am betting 13 games this week. Here are the games I bet along with the line I got, plus the three I didn't bet and the two I didn't have a line for earlier. I will try and post late Sat nite with the late lines. Notice the system said Pit/Bal under 34.5 (0.4) so when I got to the window and the line had changed I knew the system said to take OVER 34 (34.5 -0.4 = 34.1 which is > then 34) The bold games are the added ones.
Giants/Cowboys Over 44 (4.7) Titans/Texans Over 44.5 (4.7) Vikings/Cardinals Over 49 (4.4) *** Saints/Bears Over 44 (4.1) Patriots/Raiders Under 40 (3.7) Redskins/Bengals Under 36 (3.2) Chargers/Chiefs Over 46.5 (3) Bills/Jets Over 41 (2.9) Bucs/Falcons Under 44.5 (2.8) 49ers/Dolphins Under 42 (2.8) Lions/Colts Under 44.5 (2.8) *** Packers/Jaguars Over 45.5 (2.6) Browns/Eagles Over 38 (1.9) Seahawks/Rams Under 43.5 (1.9) *** Broncos/Panthers Under 47 (1.8) Steelers/Ravens Over 34 (0.1)
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Maniac, Thanks for the support ... Yea, I work hard at this can you tell ? LOL What I have learned in my short betting span, is when struggling bet more games with the system. To me it cuts your losses and also your winnings, but it takes out the risk of going belly up when you bet 3, 4 or 5 and they lose. I also bet early, most of the times I come out ahead, but a few times I get stuck with a worse line. What I have done is bet most all the NFL games since I have been posting and I have come out ahead each week. (The NBA I do different, I bet the top picks.)
Last week I went to the casino prepared to bet all the OU's and two were off the board. Turned out they were losers with the system, so I got lucky and the system went 9-7, but I came out a bigger winner at 9-5. So I am playing that strategy again this week ... three games were off, the ones with *** following below. So I am betting 13 games this week. Here are the games I bet along with the line I got, plus the three I didn't bet and the two I didn't have a line for earlier. I will try and post late Sat nite with the late lines. Notice the system said Pit/Bal under 34.5 (0.4) so when I got to the window and the line had changed I knew the system said to take OVER 34 (34.5 -0.4 = 34.1 which is > then 34) The bold games are the added ones.
Giants/Cowboys Over 44 (4.7) Titans/Texans Over 44.5 (4.7) Vikings/Cardinals Over 49 (4.4) *** Saints/Bears Over 44 (4.1) Patriots/Raiders Under 40 (3.7) Redskins/Bengals Under 36 (3.2) Chargers/Chiefs Over 46.5 (3) Bills/Jets Over 41 (2.9) Bucs/Falcons Under 44.5 (2.8) 49ers/Dolphins Under 42 (2.8) Lions/Colts Under 44.5 (2.8) *** Packers/Jaguars Over 45.5 (2.6) Browns/Eagles Over 38 (1.9) Seahawks/Rams Under 43.5 (1.9) *** Broncos/Panthers Under 47 (1.8) Steelers/Ravens Over 34 (0.1)
Bold games the line moved against the system by amount after "+" sign, ie they are "System Dogs"
Regular text are "System Favs" ... line moved in favor by amount after "-" sign
EV means line didn't change from the Tuesday post.
The ratings refect the latest line at time of post ...
Maybe the system should be faded since it has not had a losing week ???
***Vikings/Cardinals Over 46.5 (5.0) + 2.5 Titans/Texans Over 45.5 (4.4) - 1 Giants/Cowboys Over 45.5 (4.3) - 1.5 Saints/Bears Over 45 (3.8) - 1 Patriots/Raiders Under 39.5 (3.6) - 0.5 Chargers/Chiefs Over 44.5 (3.5) + 2 Redskins/Bengals Under 36.5 (3.4) + 0.5 Bills/Jets Over 41 (2.9) EV ***Lions/Colts Under 44.5 (2.8) EV Bucs/Falcons Under 44 (2.7) - 0.5 Packers/Jaguars Over 45.5 (2.6) EV 49ers/Dolphins Under 41 (2.6) - 1 Broncos/Panthers Under 47.5 (2.1) + 0.5 ***Seahawks/Rams Under 42 (1.1) - 1.5 Browns/Eagles Over 39 (0.9) - 1 Steelers/Ravens Over 34 (0.1) EV
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Games preceded by *** I did not bet ...
Bold games the line moved against the system by amount after "+" sign, ie they are "System Dogs"
Regular text are "System Favs" ... line moved in favor by amount after "-" sign
EV means line didn't change from the Tuesday post.
The ratings refect the latest line at time of post ...
Maybe the system should be faded since it has not had a losing week ???
***Vikings/Cardinals Over 46.5 (5.0) + 2.5 Titans/Texans Over 45.5 (4.4) - 1 Giants/Cowboys Over 45.5 (4.3) - 1.5 Saints/Bears Over 45 (3.8) - 1 Patriots/Raiders Under 39.5 (3.6) - 0.5 Chargers/Chiefs Over 44.5 (3.5) + 2 Redskins/Bengals Under 36.5 (3.4) + 0.5 Bills/Jets Over 41 (2.9) EV ***Lions/Colts Under 44.5 (2.8) EV Bucs/Falcons Under 44 (2.7) - 0.5 Packers/Jaguars Over 45.5 (2.6) EV 49ers/Dolphins Under 41 (2.6) - 1 Broncos/Panthers Under 47.5 (2.1) + 0.5 ***Seahawks/Rams Under 42 (1.1) - 1.5 Browns/Eagles Over 39 (0.9) - 1 Steelers/Ravens Over 34 (0.1) EV
Yon, there is a another poster in the NFL forum that has a ou system that has been hitting pretty well. For the early games he is on the following as you are:
Jets Over
Lions Under
SF Under
Rams Under
He is opposite than you on the following:
KC
TB
GB
Thought it would be interesting to see how the games do where the both of you are on the same total.
GL
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Yon, there is a another poster in the NFL forum that has a ou system that has been hitting pretty well. For the early games he is on the following as you are:
Jets Over
Lions Under
SF Under
Rams Under
He is opposite than you on the following:
KC
TB
GB
Thought it would be interesting to see how the games do where the both of you are on the same total.
yon...BOL this week, will prob tail some of these, there are some big differentials by your system this week. Looks like top 5 are Titans, NYG, NO, Ne, and KC games with the Viking game showing up as a did not bet from you, but the number looks big. Enjoy your day...make it a green one.
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yon...BOL this week, will prob tail some of these, there are some big differentials by your system this week. Looks like top 5 are Titans, NYG, NO, Ne, and KC games with the Viking game showing up as a did not bet from you, but the number looks big. Enjoy your day...make it a green one.
I'm kinda surprised to see another winning week ... I have really neglected the NFL system the past month. I more watchful eye might help it somewhat. The top 5 picks have really dived ...
Here's what I have for this week ... I see weather bringing down a lot of lines I have the over on, so I am not following my usual routine of betting all games early. I will bet the ones marked Now tomorrow, and wait to watch the lines marked Wait. Of course the game at Min is not weather related, but I like the under and I have a feeling most will take the over and drive that line up. Underlined games not on Sunday.
Cardinals/Patriots Over 44 (4.3) Wait Dolphins/Chiefs Over 41 (3.8) Wait Packers/Bears Over 41.5 (3.4) Wait Chargers/Bucs Under 42.5 (3.4) Now Saints/Lions Over 50 (2.5) Now Falcons/Vikings Under 44 (2.5) Wait Jets/Seahawks Over 44.5 (2.4) Now 49ers/Rams Under 44 (2.1) Now Bills/Broncos Over 44.5 (1.7) Wait Panthers/Giants Over 39 (1.5) Now Steelers/Titans Under 34.5 (1.5) Now Ravens/Cowboys Over 39.5 (1.4) Now Texans/Raiders Under 44 (1.4) Now Colts/Jaguars Under 44 (0.9) Now
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Last Week 8-7-1 (50.0%)
Overall 61-38-2 (60.4%)
Top5 1-3-1 last week 19-15-1 Overall (54.3%)
I'm kinda surprised to see another winning week ... I have really neglected the NFL system the past month. I more watchful eye might help it somewhat. The top 5 picks have really dived ...
Here's what I have for this week ... I see weather bringing down a lot of lines I have the over on, so I am not following my usual routine of betting all games early. I will bet the ones marked Now tomorrow, and wait to watch the lines marked Wait. Of course the game at Min is not weather related, but I like the under and I have a feeling most will take the over and drive that line up. Underlined games not on Sunday.
Cardinals/Patriots Over 44 (4.3) Wait Dolphins/Chiefs Over 41 (3.8) Wait Packers/Bears Over 41.5 (3.4) Wait Chargers/Bucs Under 42.5 (3.4) Now Saints/Lions Over 50 (2.5) Now Falcons/Vikings Under 44 (2.5) Wait Jets/Seahawks Over 44.5 (2.4) Now 49ers/Rams Under 44 (2.1) Now Bills/Broncos Over 44.5 (1.7) Wait Panthers/Giants Over 39 (1.5) Now Steelers/Titans Under 34.5 (1.5) Now Ravens/Cowboys Over 39.5 (1.4) Now Texans/Raiders Under 44 (1.4) Now Colts/Jaguars Under 44 (0.9) Now
The system has gone 1-1 so far ... so looking for another winning week to keep the streak going. I'm kinda combining two systems and taking averages so the ratings may be a bit confusing compared to my previous post, but these ratings (the # in parenthesis) most acurately reflect the picks as I see it now with the lines as I write this. I suggested waiting for lines to change and it helped on 3 and hurt on 2, but it helped 5 points and only hurt 1.5.
If you haven't bet yet all the bold games the line has moved in your favor by the number of points following the + sign. The games with a negative number following shows how many points you lost not betting early and is not as good of a bet now. EV means no line change.
Dolphins/Chiefs Over 37.5 (5.5) +3.5 Paid to wait Cardinals/Patriots Over 43.5 (4.5) +0.5 Paid to wait Packers/Bears Over 40.5 (3.7) +1 Paid to wait Chargers/Bucs Under 42.5 (3.4) EV Jets/Seahawks Over 41.5 (3.2) +3 Saints/Lions Over 50 (2.5) EV Falcons/Vikings Under 43 (2.2) +1 Wrong on waiting Panthers/Giants Over 37 (2) +2 Eagles/Redskins Under 37 (2) -2.5 49ers/Rams Under 42 (1.6) -2 Bills/Broncos Over 45 (1.6) +0.5 Wrong on waiting Steelers/Titans Under 34.5 (1.5) EV Bengals/Browns Under 31.5 (0.7) -4 Texans/Raiders Under 43 (0.4) -1
BOL to everyone on this next to last week in the NFL
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The system has gone 1-1 so far ... so looking for another winning week to keep the streak going. I'm kinda combining two systems and taking averages so the ratings may be a bit confusing compared to my previous post, but these ratings (the # in parenthesis) most acurately reflect the picks as I see it now with the lines as I write this. I suggested waiting for lines to change and it helped on 3 and hurt on 2, but it helped 5 points and only hurt 1.5.
If you haven't bet yet all the bold games the line has moved in your favor by the number of points following the + sign. The games with a negative number following shows how many points you lost not betting early and is not as good of a bet now. EV means no line change.
Dolphins/Chiefs Over 37.5 (5.5) +3.5 Paid to wait Cardinals/Patriots Over 43.5 (4.5) +0.5 Paid to wait Packers/Bears Over 40.5 (3.7) +1 Paid to wait Chargers/Bucs Under 42.5 (3.4) EV Jets/Seahawks Over 41.5 (3.2) +3 Saints/Lions Over 50 (2.5) EV Falcons/Vikings Under 43 (2.2) +1 Wrong on waiting Panthers/Giants Over 37 (2) +2 Eagles/Redskins Under 37 (2) -2.5 49ers/Rams Under 42 (1.6) -2 Bills/Broncos Over 45 (1.6) +0.5 Wrong on waiting Steelers/Titans Under 34.5 (1.5) EV Bengals/Browns Under 31.5 (0.7) -4 Texans/Raiders Under 43 (0.4) -1
BOL to everyone on this next to last week in the NFL
Small mistake on previous one ... the line in the Atl/Min and Buf/Den should not be in bold ... the line is worse now, not better. So the system is on the "right side" of line moves in all but two games NYJ/Sea and Car/NYG.
Dolphins/Chiefs Over 37.5 (5.5) -3.5 Paid to wait Cardinals/Patriots Over 43.5 (4.5) -0.5 Paid to wait Packers/Bears Over 40.5 (3.7) -1 Paid to wait Chargers/Bucs Under 42.5 (3.4) EV Jets/Seahawks Over 41.5 (3.2) +3 Saints/Lions Over 50 (2.5) EV Falcons/Vikings Under 43 (2.2) -1 Wrong on waiting Panthers/Giants Over 37 (2) +2 Eagles/Redskins Under 37 (2) -2.5 49ers/Rams Under 42 (1.6) -2 Bills/Broncos Over 45 (1.6) -0.5 Wrong on waiting Steelers/Titans Under 34.5 (1.5) EV Bengals/Browns Under 31.5 (0.7) -4 Texans/Raiders Under 43 (0.4) -1
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Small mistake on previous one ... the line in the Atl/Min and Buf/Den should not be in bold ... the line is worse now, not better. So the system is on the "right side" of line moves in all but two games NYJ/Sea and Car/NYG.
Dolphins/Chiefs Over 37.5 (5.5) -3.5 Paid to wait Cardinals/Patriots Over 43.5 (4.5) -0.5 Paid to wait Packers/Bears Over 40.5 (3.7) -1 Paid to wait Chargers/Bucs Under 42.5 (3.4) EV Jets/Seahawks Over 41.5 (3.2) +3 Saints/Lions Over 50 (2.5) EV Falcons/Vikings Under 43 (2.2) -1 Wrong on waiting Panthers/Giants Over 37 (2) +2 Eagles/Redskins Under 37 (2) -2.5 49ers/Rams Under 42 (1.6) -2 Bills/Broncos Over 45 (1.6) -0.5 Wrong on waiting Steelers/Titans Under 34.5 (1.5) EV Bengals/Browns Under 31.5 (0.7) -4 Texans/Raiders Under 43 (0.4) -1
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BOL to everyone on this next to last week in the NFL 
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