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The YONS NFL Totals

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Posted: #1
This is a continuation from my thread titled "NFL O/U at 73.2 %"
 
I think I got punished by the football Gods for spending the past week working on the NBA system ... I had my worst week yet going 9-7 (32-18-1) ytd and 2-3 on my top 5 picks (14-6 ytd).  Then the past two weeks of LOW then real HIGH scores kinda caused my system to have a hiccup.  I hate to change something when it was working, but something told me it needed work.  Nothing major all the same concepts remain I just changed a few constants, slopes, and intercepts.  My ratings are a little different in magnitude then the previous weeks, but you shouldn't notice it being different.  Ok, I'll shutup ... here are the picks.
 
Steelers / Patriots Under 39.5 (4.7)Broncos / Jets Over 47.5 (3.1)49ers / Bills Over 42.5 (2.5)Chiefs / Raiders Under 42 (2.4)Titans / Lions Over 44 (2.2)Saints / Bucs Under 48 (2.1)Cardinals / Eagles Over 47 (2.1)Colts / Browns Under 45 (2)Jaguars / Texans Over 48 (1.9)Seahawks / Cowboys Under 46.5 (1.9)Giants / Redskins Under 41.5 (1.8)Panthers / Packers Under 43 (1.8)Dolphins / Rams Over 44 (1.6)Falcons / Chargers Under 49 (1.6)Ravens / Bengals Over 36.5 (1.1)Bears / Vikings Under 42 (1)
 
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Posted: #2
are these the new calculated numbers?
 
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Posted: #3
hmm .. that post screwed up, let me try again.  Stake, Yes.
 
Steelers/Patriots Under 39.5 (4.7)
Broncos/Jets Over 47.5 (3.1)
49ers/Bills Over 42.5 (2.5)
Chiefs/Raiders Under 42 (2.4)
Titans/Lions Over 44 (2.2)
Saints/Bucs Under 48 (2.1)
Cardinals/Eagles Over 47 (2.1)
Colts/Browns Under 45 (2)
Jaguars/Texans Over 48 (1.9)
Seahawks/Cowboys Under 46.5 (1.9)
Giants/Redskins Under 41.5 (1.8)
Panthers/Packers Under 43 (1.8)
Dolphins/Rams Over 44 (1.6)
Falcons/Chargers Under 49 (1.6)
Ravens/Bengals Over 36.5 (1.1)
Bears/Vikings Under 42 (1)
 
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Posted: #4
....nothing over (5)....
 
....no plays?????
 
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Posted: #5
Gas,  I never had a minimum number for NFL plays, but the top 5 have gone 14-6 so far.
 
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Posted: #6
great stuff kenyon
 
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Posted: #7
What if any deviations to your system did you make to adjust for the short week these teams had to prepare for football on Th instead of Sun with regards to the Thanksgiving games. I noticed that in the last six years every games total had more than 50% of the points scored on the board by halftime. (Den at KC in 2006 is the exception in which 3 more points were scored in the second half) If this trend continues that makes all of the 1st half overs look pretty good on Turkey day. Do you concur?
 
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Posted: #8
Whoops,  Thats one of the reasons I like to bet totals, I don't have to concentrate so much on advantages to one team or the other, just the differences between offense and defense.  If I'm wrong the other team may make up for it, whereas in sides your are screwed if that happens.  My hypothesis would be that short weeks help defense, because of less time for the offense to prepare.  I did not consider that in my picks, I have two overs and an under tomorrow.  Basically the books do that for me ... they set the line and if teams score less on short weeks they know, I don't have to worry about it.  I just have to decide over or under the number they set.  Does that make sense?
 
I have no idea on 1st and 2nd half scoring ... I have no data on that.  Sorry.
 
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Posted: #9
 Happy Thanksgiving & GL K.
 
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Posted: #10
KMAN,
watched your system go 2-0 in early games-
nice job, HAPPY TURKEY DAY
 
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Posted: #11
kenyon.. I am playing all of the NFL O/U this week...
 
 
....all 3 O/U's hit today...
 
...HAPPY THANKSGIVING my man...
 
I also am gonna go 2-1 on NFL sides today also...
 
5-1 night...
 
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Posted: #12
Great job, 3-0 today
 
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Posted: #13

r8dr ... Were ya still believing after the 1st half in Dallas?   Was a nice 2nd half tho.

Gas,  I'm with ya, got money on all the NFL O/U's this week.  Nice start at 3-0.  WTG on the sides!

 
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Posted: #14
Thanks GSHawk  
 
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Posted: #15
Partytime!!!! 8-0 today and a lot of that credit goes to your system. All 3 first half overs covered easily and your game totals were 3-0. Thats 12 out of 13 games on thanksgiving over the last 5 years in which the offenses' partied much harder in the first half. Keep up the good work.
 
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Posted: #16
Yep, I thought of your posts Whoops after all the points scored in the first half of the first two games.  Good Call.  Pretty much just watched the Orl/Was game after the first two FB games.  WTG!!!
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

kenyon.. I am playing all of the NFL O/U this week...
 
 
....all 3 O/U's hit today...
 
...HAPPY THANKSGIVING my man...
 
I also am gonna go 2-1 on NFL sides today also...
 
5-1 night...

Let me see if I understand this.  Gas said all 3 games won yesterday.  But they were NOT recommended by Kenyonlv as plays because they were not rated 5 or higher, correct?

 

So officially, yester was a no play in the nfl for Kenyonlv, based on his filters.  Is this right?

 

Thanks

 
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Posted: #18

Eppy, Ya gotta read the previous posts ... btw I bet all the NFL O/U's this week.

Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

Gas,  I never had a minimum number for NFL plays, but the top 5 have gone 14-6 so far.
 
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Posted: #19
professor...I decided to play all of kenyons O/U's since it has won in all of the past weeks.  His top 5 plays for me have not fared as well as the sum of all the games..
 
I bet all of his O/U picks on Turkeyday and won them all....
 
 
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Posted: #20
k,
no lie,  after the first half of the cowgirl game i was wondering,
hummmmmm, oh well what ever happens happens.
thats why YOU THE MAN...........
i just find it hard to bet on under because you have to watch or know about the whole game, unlike the overs , detroit game-over by half time
 
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Posted: #21
 
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Posted: #22
KENYON....3-0 Turkeyday
              ....4-3 1200 Sunday Games
            
.............7-3 so far with 6 to play
 
 
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Posted: #23
KENYON....3-0 Turkeyday
              ....4-3 1200 Sunday Games
              .....3-1  3pm games
            
.............13-4 so far with 2 to play
 
 
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Posted: #24
KENYON....3-0 Turkeyday
              ....4-3 1200 Sunday Games
              .....3-1  3pm games
              .....0-1  7pm game
            
.............13-5 so far with 1 to play
 
.....72% winner so far....
 
 
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Posted: #25
I'm just wondering what the numbers in the brackets mean

Steelers/Patriots Under 39.5 (4.7)
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