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The YONS NFL Totals

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Posted: #26

...it is the "strength" of the play...

if the O/U goes down or up then that (#) will change...

ie...Kenyon has calculated that the "UNDER" is the play....if the Pit/NE O/U changed to 42 then the new calculated bet would be ....UNDER  42 (7.2) ...4.7+2.5 change...get it

I will tell you that just because you bet the "best" (#) bet that it will not be an automatic winner...Over all weeks games Kenyon has been around 72% winner betting all of the games.. 

 

 

 
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Posted: #27
Sorry...I meant....
 
KENYON....3-0 Turkeyday
              ....4-3 1200 Sunday Games
              .....3-1  3pm games
              .....0-1  7pm game
            
.............10-5 so far with 1 to play
 
.....62% winner so far....
 
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Posted: #28
Tizzo,  Gas is right it's the strength of play and his explanation of how it would change is correct also.  It's simply the difference between the Vegas line and my line.  Under 39.5 (4.7) means 39.5 - 4.7 = 34.8 which is my line.  Or, Broncos/Jets Over 47.5 (3.1) means 47.5 + 3.1 = 50.6 a much better example since the final total was 51 LOL
 
Gas I appreciate your help, but I have no idea where you get your percentages ... I usually wait till the end of the week, but I just wanted to clarify.
 
So far its 42-23-1 on all picks which is 63.6% and 17-8 on the top 5 picks the past 5 weeks which is 68.0%
 
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Posted: #29
Ken have been watching your numbers since you started, you should be making good money just playing totals. When do you put out your new picks? I guess Tuesday AM to get the line when it first comes out with the totals. Good work keep it up I will be looking for this weeks plays to make some MONEY like the Gasman. thanks in advance CJB3
 
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Posted: #30
ok thanks for the info

so for the MNF

Jaguars/Texans Over 48 (1.9)

do I hammer that over or is the rating too low (bracket number)?
 
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Posted: #31
CJ, Yes I have done quite well cashing tickets the past three weeks ... I'll try and get out my numbers late tonight.
 
Tizzo, 10-5 so far, and I still like the over tonight.  Only 3-2 on my top 5 rated plays, so the lower ratings are 7-3.  I see positive numbers across the board for both teams offenses tonight.  It sure looks like a shootout.  48 is a pretty high number so I don't know about "hammering it."
 
I also think the Jags money line at +145 is a good play tonight ...
 
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Posted: #32
Bucs/Panthers Under 38 (5.8)
Jets/49ers Over 44.5 (4.7)
Raiders/Chargers Under 43 (4.6)
Browns/Titans Under 37.5 (3.5)
Bengals/Colts Under 42.5 (3.5)
Cowboys/Steelers Under 41.5 (3.4)
Chiefs/Broncos Over 48 (3.3)
Dolphins/Bills Under 42.5 (1.7)
Patriots/Seahawks Over 43 (1)
Falcons/Saints Under 52.5 (0.9)
Eagles/Giants Over 44.5 (0.6)
Rams/Cardinals Under 48.5 (0.1)
 
I post the other 4 games when I see the lines ...
 
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Posted: #33
....good calls last week...
 
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Posted: #34

Gas,  Yep, it was good but it sure was close to being a great week.  NE's 5 TO's gave the Steelers just one too many easy scores.  Get to the half without that 99 yd TD pass by the Vikings and that goes under.  And as weird as it was the game last nite coulda gone over without two missed field goals.  Of course I probably won a game or two that coulda gone the other way with a break here or there, but I not aware of those. LOL

Here are two more lines ...

Texans/Packers Over 46.5 (4.8)  Weather could be an issue  ...
Jaguars/Bears Under 40 (1.5)

 
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Posted: #35
Here are the last two ..
 
Vikings/Lions Over 45 (4.7)
Redskins/Ravens Under 36 (2)  (Not at many books)
 
Based on the assumption that the early money is smart, I see six lines moving in my favor and only one the other way.  I'm thinking of fading the system on that one.  System has Phi/Gia Over, but looks like money is coming in on the under.
 
The lines looking good are: (the arrow shows how the line has moved already.
Oak/SD Under 43 --> 42
Cin/Ind Under 42.5 --> 42
Hou/GB Over 46.5 --> 47  (Even with game in GB)
Atl/NO Under 52.5 --> 52
KC/Den Over 48 --> 48.5 (Even with game in Denver)
Dal/Pit Under 41.5 --> 40.5 (Game in Pitt)
Phi/Gia Over 44.5 <-- 43.5 (Goes against system)
 
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Posted: #36
Yon, do you have link to where this entire system is explained??? I saw your NBA post as well and I was looking to see how you determine these winners.
 
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Posted: #37
Oak/SD.....
 
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Posted: #38
Fritz, The best description I have posted is the first post on the one titled NFL O/U at 73.2% and a few following ones in that thread.  It's not simple and is constantly changing so there is no easy way to describe what I am doing.  The method in both is basically the same.
 
Gas, I gave up on that game at the half and watched NBA, and was pleasantly surprised to come back in 4th Q and see the same score and then eventually a winner.
 
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Posted: #39
kenyon, any chance you can post your final plays with your systems at the end of that days thread to make it easier for those of us who tail you. Thanx in advance.
 
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Posted: #40
gl to all  thnx ken
 
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Posted: #41
Softball,  Yes it was difficult to see my picks since they were spread across three posts, so here they are again.  The first list is what I bet on Tuesday, so I doubt you will find these lines, but it is what I will use for the record.
 
Last week 10-6 (62.5%)
Overall 42-24-1 (62.7%)
Top Five 3-2 last week 17-8 Overall (68.0%)
 
Bucs/Panthers Under 38 (5.8)
Texans/Packers Over 46.5 (4.8)
Jets/49ers Over 44.5 (4.7)
Vikings/Lions Over 45 (4.7)  Rating should've been 5.9
Raiders/Chargers Under 43 (4.6)
Browns/Titans Under 37.5 (3.5)
Bengals/Colts Under 42.5 (3.5)
Cowboys/Steelers Under 41.5 (3.4)
Chiefs/Broncos Over 48 (3.3)
Redskins/Ravens Under 36 (2)
Dolphins/Bills Under 42.5 (1.7)
Jaguars/Bears Under 40 (1.5)
Patriots/Seahawks Over 43 (1)
Falcons/Saints Under 52.5 (0.9)
Eagles/Giants Under 44.5 (0.6)  I went against the system
Rams/Cardinals Over 48.5 (0.1)  I went against the system
 
I just adjusted the picks for the lines now (Saturday)
 
Bucs/Panthers Under 38.5 (5.9)
Vikings/Lions Over 45 (5.9)
Jets/49ers Over 44.5 (4.7)
Raiders/Chargers Under 43 (4.6) 
Redskins/Ravens Under 35.5 (4.6)
Texans/Packers Over 47.5 (4.5)
Browns/Titans Under 37 (3.4)
Bengals/Colts Under 42 (3.3)
Chiefs/Broncos Over 48.5 (3.2)
Cowboys/Steelers Under 38 (2.5)  Line came down 3.5 points, I'll try to middle.
Dolphins/Bills Under 42 (1.6)
Jaguars/Bears Under 40.5 (1.5)
Eagles/Giants Over 42.5 (1.3)  I took under 44.5
Patriots/Seahawks Over 43 (0.5)
Falcons/Saints Over 51.5 (0.1)  Switched due to line change
Rams/Cardinals Under 48.5 (0.1)  I like the over on this
 
 
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Posted: #42
Nobody has asked about my avatar ... who knows whose pic it is?
 
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Posted: #43
A young MJ?
 
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Posted: #44
it is Jordan, I'm with ya Gutcheck on your guess. Nice posts also Kenyon, keep up the good work!
 
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Posted: #45
keny...thought I was understanding your system, but now see no line changes in NE/Sea game (38), but your system has adjusted from an original basis fo 1 to an adjust basis point of 0.5...there are other games following this senerio as well....can you explain reasoning.
 
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Posted: #46
Jordan
 
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Posted: #47
That looks like a young MJ. 
 
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Posted: #48
That's the Young OJ Simpson.
 
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Posted: #49
....12noon games....2-4-1
 
...3pm games...
 
 
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Posted: #50

Yep, Mike Jordan from my 7th grade yearbook.  I used to play basketball with him in the mornings before school.  Then in 8th grade he went to another school and I played against him on the school team.  He also enjoyed "pitching pennies."

Not sure how you went 2-4-1 Gas ... I went 4-3 and didn't play two of  the losses, so 4-1 for me. 

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