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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Score in 1st inning 3 game series chase

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    The_Extremist
    PickleRick
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    The_Extremist
    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2017 - 2:12 PM ET #76

    here's a list of the teams that have had no losses on a 3 game chase for Yes Score on 1st as AWAY team:
    Mets
    Dodgers
    Marlins
    Dbacks
    Rangers
    Rays
    Blue Jays
    A's
    Padres
    Angels

    and here's a list for the same trend as Home teams.
    Brewers
    Blue Jays
    Astros
    Giants
    Cubs
    Dbacks
    Orioles
    Nationals

    we have 7 games that are 3 game series starting Friday. Lets track them to see how they do. Games that qualify are:

    Mets/Astros
    A's/ Mariners
    Dbacks/Rockies *****
    Angels/Rangers
    Rays/White Sox





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    here's a list of the teams that have had no losses on a 3 game chase for Yes Score on 1st as AWAY team:
    Mets
    Dodgers
    Marlins
    Dbacks
    Rangers
    Rays
    Blue Jays
    A's
    Padres
    Angels

    and here's a list for the same trend as Home teams.
    Brewers
    Blue Jays
    Astros
    Giants
    Cubs
    Dbacks
    Orioles
    Nationals

    we have 7 games that are 3 game series starting Friday. Lets track them to see how they do. Games that qualify are:

    Mets/Astros
    A's/ Mariners
    Dbacks/Rockies *****
    Angels/Rangers
    Rays/White Sox





     
    PickleRick
    PickleRick
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2017 - 10:43 PM ET #77

    Like the approach, btw whys that one game have ***** ?

    Cause Dbacks are a play both Home and Away? Alot of teams qualify here, makes sense since last 10 years a blind play of this would have won close to 90% of the time!
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    Like the approach, btw whys that one game have ***** ?

    Cause Dbacks are a play both Home and Away? Alot of teams qualify here, makes sense since last 10 years a blind play of this would have won close to 90% of the time!
     
    The_Extremist
    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2017 - 11:01 PM ET #78

    Quote Originally Posted by PickleRick:

    Like the approach, btw whys that one game have ***** ?

    Cause Dbacks are a play both Home and Away? Alot of teams qualify here, makes sense since last 10 years a blind play of this would have won close to 90% of the time!


    yes dbacks are undefeated at home and away and are our #1 chase team

    how did you get the 90%. are you running it on SDQL? if so what trend/query are you running. just curious
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    Quote Originally Posted by PickleRick:

    Like the approach, btw whys that one game have ***** ?

    Cause Dbacks are a play both Home and Away? Alot of teams qualify here, makes sense since last 10 years a blind play of this would have won close to 90% of the time!


    yes dbacks are undefeated at home and away and are our #1 chase team

    how did you get the 90%. are you running it on SDQL? if so what trend/query are you running. just curious
     
    PickleRick
    PickleRick
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2017 - 11:30 PM ET #79

    89% actually here's the line: 

    A(R1+o:R1>0 or p:R1+op:R1>0 or pp:R1+opp:R1>0)@season>=2007 and SGS=3=SG 

    Not team specific either, so will be higher if we are more selective 
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    89% actually here's the line: 

    A(R1+o:R1>0 or p:R1+op:R1>0 or pp:R1+opp:R1>0)@season>=2007 and SGS=3=SG 

    Not team specific either, so will be higher if we are more selective 
     
    The_Extremist
    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2017 - 12:28 AM ET #80

    oh yeah.. same one I posted. Ok thought it was team specific.
    yeah blind chase would be nice but unfortunately you know that each loss =10-12 unit loss

    S(R1+o:R1>0 or p:R1+op:R1>0 or pp:R1+opp:R1>0),S(R1+o:R1=0 and p:R1+op:R1=0 and pp:R1+opp:R1=0)@season>=2007 and SGS=3=SG and A

    5470-699 but that 699x10=6990 so its a losing trend that's why we pick the teams out
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    oh yeah.. same one I posted. Ok thought it was team specific.
    yeah blind chase would be nice but unfortunately you know that each loss =10-12 unit loss

    S(R1+o:R1>0 or p:R1+op:R1>0 or pp:R1+opp:R1>0),S(R1+o:R1=0 and p:R1+op:R1=0 and pp:R1+opp:R1=0)@season>=2007 and SGS=3=SG and A

    5470-699 but that 699x10=6990 so its a losing trend that's why we pick the teams out
     
    PickleRick
    PickleRick
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2017 - 11:32 AM ET #81

    True, Just ran a generic one to see which trend hits at a higher winning percentage. So Score in 1st Inn is highest but loses total a high unit loss as many of these are juiced. Im looking into the Under/Over chase as I like only paying -110 on chase plays.
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    True, Just ran a generic one to see which trend hits at a higher winning percentage. So Score in 1st Inn is highest but loses total a high unit loss as many of these are juiced. Im looking into the Under/Over chase as I like only paying -110 on chase plays.
     
    The_Extremist
    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2017 - 3:43 PM ET #82

    Quote Originally Posted by PickleRick:

    True, Just ran a generic one to see which trend hits at a higher winning percentage. So Score in 1st Inn is highest but loses total a high unit loss as many of these are juiced. Im looking into the Under/Over chase as I like only paying -110 on chase plays.


    but you're running it on the whole league not specific teams right? How about this run it on teams that by the start of the all star break had no losses and by chasing those to the 2nd of season how they did. that would mean 4-7 teams chasing from July to end of season.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PickleRick:

    True, Just ran a generic one to see which trend hits at a higher winning percentage. So Score in 1st Inn is highest but loses total a high unit loss as many of these are juiced. Im looking into the Under/Over chase as I like only paying -110 on chase plays.


    but you're running it on the whole league not specific teams right? How about this run it on teams that by the start of the all star break had no losses and by chasing those to the 2nd of season how they did. that would mean 4-7 teams chasing from July to end of season.
     
    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2017 - 3:53 PM ET #83

    here's an example of Under chase for 2016 with top 4 teams before all star break and after all star break

    A(U or p:U or pp:U) @ team in [Dodgers, Rockies, Yankees, Blue Jays] and season=2016  and SGS=3=SG and BASB,AASB
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    here's an example of Under chase for 2016 with top 4 teams before all star break and after all star break

    A(U or p:U or pp:U) @ team in [Dodgers, Rockies, Yankees, Blue Jays] and season=2016  and SGS=3=SG and BASB,AASB
     
    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2017 - 11:49 PM ET #84

    Mets/Astros  POSTPONED
    A's/ Mariners 
    Dbacks/Rockies ***** 
    Angels/Rangers 
    Rays/White Sox 

    4-0 Sweep on the 1st game . Not bad.. 
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    Mets/Astros  POSTPONED
    A's/ Mariners 
    Dbacks/Rockies ***** 
    Angels/Rangers 
    Rays/White Sox 

    4-0 Sweep on the 1st game . Not bad.. 
     
    PickleRick
    PickleRick
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2017 - 12:40 AM ET #85

    BOOM BABY!
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    BOOM BABY!
     
    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2017 - 1:48 AM ET #86

    5 games qualify to start tomorrows on 3 game chase for yes score on 1st. Also check out my googledocs link I posted. had clean sweep on all categories this past weekend and will have bunch chases lined up. Pick and choose which ones you want to follow.

    Dbacks
    Rangers
    Blue Jays
    Angels
    Orioles

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    5 games qualify to start tomorrows on 3 game chase for yes score on 1st. Also check out my googledocs link I posted. had clean sweep on all categories this past weekend and will have bunch chases lined up. Pick and choose which ones you want to follow.

    Dbacks
    Rangers
    Blue Jays
    Angels
    Orioles

     
    PickleRick
    PickleRick
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2017 - 12:45 PM ET #87

    BOL! 
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    BOL! 
     
    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2017 - 9:51 PM ET #88

    Dbacks 
    Rangers 
    Blue Jays 
    Angels 
    Orioles 

    4-1 on 1st game. Dbacks to 2nd chase tomorrow
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    Dbacks 
    Rangers 
    Blue Jays 
    Angels 
    Orioles 

    4-1 on 1st game. Dbacks to 2nd chase tomorrow
     
    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Sep. 6, 2017 - 10:38 PM ET #89

    and Diamondbacks  make it a clean sweep.. 5-0... check out my other thread. I cleared 17-0 chases that started on Tues. Very profitable and promising. 
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    and Diamondbacks  make it a clean sweep.. 5-0... check out my other thread. I cleared 17-0 chases that started on Tues. Very profitable and promising. 
     
    PickleRick
    PickleRick
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    Posted: Sep. 7, 2017 - 1:31 AM ET #90

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    The_Extremist
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    Posted: Sep. 8, 2017 - 12:35 PM ET #91

    starting 5 new chases today:

    TIGERS/BLUE JAYS
    BREWERS/CUBS
    PADRES/DIAMONDBACKS
    ANGELS/MARINERS
    RAYS/RED SOX

    "YES" Score on 1st. 
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    starting 5 new chases today:

    TIGERS/BLUE JAYS
    BREWERS/CUBS
    PADRES/DIAMONDBACKS
    ANGELS/MARINERS
    RAYS/RED SOX

    "YES" Score on 1st. 
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