I already have the SDQL system bro. I didn't pick the teams out of thin air.
those teams were chosen because in a 3 game series after all star break, they only had 1 loss in a 3 game chase. So before all star break the record is different. What makes Diamondbacks and Blue Jays special is that they have 0 losses from beginning of the season. Period. before and after all star break. You guys understand that only a small mistake or error or a bad call from the ump can cost you a loss so there's no way to prevent some of these. All you can is bet less teams to minimize losses. I think gonna play those 2 teams and maybe 2 other ones and keep it to just 4 teams. I will look at their streaks, over under trends and etc to choose the best 2 secondary teams and get back
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I already have the SDQL system bro. I didn't pick the teams out of thin air.
those teams were chosen because in a 3 game series after all star break, they only had 1 loss in a 3 game chase. So before all star break the record is different. What makes Diamondbacks and Blue Jays special is that they have 0 losses from beginning of the season. Period. before and after all star break. You guys understand that only a small mistake or error or a bad call from the ump can cost you a loss so there's no way to prevent some of these. All you can is bet less teams to minimize losses. I think gonna play those 2 teams and maybe 2 other ones and keep it to just 4 teams. I will look at their streaks, over under trends and etc to choose the best 2 secondary teams and get back
I ran through some numbers for 2016 season. If we did a 3 game 1st inning over chase for all teams from the start of season and stop for that team if they lose 1 chase, we would be down 158 units. If we start after all star break and only chase teams with 1 loss or less until they get to 2 loss, we would be up 5 units. Less work would be to chase teams with no loss after all star break until they get 1 loss. We would be up 4 units. This is base on -12 unit per series chase loss. Maybe others can help figure out if this is viable in the future since 1 season doesn't really tell too much but gives us an idea. Need more data. Cheers!
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I ran through some numbers for 2016 season. If we did a 3 game 1st inning over chase for all teams from the start of season and stop for that team if they lose 1 chase, we would be down 158 units. If we start after all star break and only chase teams with 1 loss or less until they get to 2 loss, we would be up 5 units. Less work would be to chase teams with no loss after all star break until they get 1 loss. We would be up 4 units. This is base on -12 unit per series chase loss. Maybe others can help figure out if this is viable in the future since 1 season doesn't really tell too much but gives us an idea. Need more data. Cheers!
Also, if we stick to teams that has 1 loss or less after all star break regardless if they lose again we would be up 18 units. I hope I got all my numbers correct. Good luck everyone.
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Also, if we stick to teams that has 1 loss or less after all star break regardless if they lose again we would be up 18 units. I hope I got all my numbers correct. Good luck everyone.
Problem maybe is going trips(3 games) on a measure (score in 1st) that is not dependent on a longer in-game experience makes it inherently difficult. Compared to chases like the post all star game systems herein, there's no real qualitative basis to choose 1st inning performance. Very hard to correlate a real expectation of future results without a true qualitative factor involved.
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Problem maybe is going trips(3 games) on a measure (score in 1st) that is not dependent on a longer in-game experience makes it inherently difficult. Compared to chases like the post all star game systems herein, there's no real qualitative basis to choose 1st inning performance. Very hard to correlate a real expectation of future results without a true qualitative factor involved.
yes sticking to teams with no losses after all star break but also looking at their record in this system before all star break. That's why I'm going with Diamondbacks and Blue Jays. These guys have ways to score the whole season or they have pitchers that give up runs in 1st inning because of their pitching rotation. We choose 1st inning over any other inning is because 1st innings have the most % of scoring than any other inning. the key is the less teams the less likelyhood of losses. Keeping it to 2-3 teams only. Teams with no losses after all start break is a big list. there are 10 of them right now and no way to be able to chse that many at the same time. chasing 5 even was a back breaker.
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yes sticking to teams with no losses after all star break but also looking at their record in this system before all star break. That's why I'm going with Diamondbacks and Blue Jays. These guys have ways to score the whole season or they have pitchers that give up runs in 1st inning because of their pitching rotation. We choose 1st inning over any other inning is because 1st innings have the most % of scoring than any other inning. the key is the less teams the less likelyhood of losses. Keeping it to 2-3 teams only. Teams with no losses after all start break is a big list. there are 10 of them right now and no way to be able to chse that many at the same time. chasing 5 even was a back breaker.
Yes it's kind of random luck. 2015 after all star break would only have 1 team to play which is the Rockies and would have lost 2 units that year if only played teams with no losses after all star and stop after 1 loss.
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Yes it's kind of random luck. 2015 after all star break would only have 1 team to play which is the Rockies and would have lost 2 units that year if only played teams with no losses after all star and stop after 1 loss.
Could consider finding teams who don't score and doesn't give up runs and chase 1st inning unders? Seems like juice would be less. Still have a feeling the amount of units won per season would be minimal. Just my 2 sense without looking at any numbers.
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Could consider finding teams who don't score and doesn't give up runs and chase 1st inning unders? Seems like juice would be less. Still have a feeling the amount of units won per season would be minimal. Just my 2 sense without looking at any numbers.
Extremist do you have the query line that gave you those Home and Away teams?
Perhaps if we ONLY play games where these 2 teams face eachother. And I can write a line that will give us a set total threshold that correlates to 1st Inn scores
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Extremist do you have the query line that gave you those Home and Away teams?
Perhaps if we ONLY play games where these 2 teams face eachother. And I can write a line that will give us a set total threshold that correlates to 1st Inn scores
a few things. You can't chase a system based on what the total is going to be because you don't know the totals for the next upcoming games, otherwise I know that if the total is total>=10 there is def more chance of a score in 1st.
as for chasing unders, no books have caught up to that. 5-6 years ago you could've chased it, even same day just betting on no score or yes score and they had + value. Not it's a - on score ys or no. people already burnt that out years ago
here's the query you can do to see how you team does as away in a 3 game series so far
A(R1+o:R1=0 and p:R1+op:R1=0 and pp:R1+opp:R1=0)@team and SGS=3=SG and season=2017
put AASB to see after all star break. the ones with 0 % obviously have no losses
you can also put S instead of the A to count the # of the games instead of the average %
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a few things. You can't chase a system based on what the total is going to be because you don't know the totals for the next upcoming games, otherwise I know that if the total is total>=10 there is def more chance of a score in 1st.
as for chasing unders, no books have caught up to that. 5-6 years ago you could've chased it, even same day just betting on no score or yes score and they had + value. Not it's a - on score ys or no. people already burnt that out years ago
here's the query you can do to see how you team does as away in a 3 game series so far
A(R1+o:R1=0 and p:R1+op:R1=0 and pp:R1+opp:R1=0)@team and SGS=3=SG and season=2017
put AASB to see after all star break. the ones with 0 % obviously have no losses
you can also put S instead of the A to count the # of the games instead of the average %
there is one more options but means you might leave some money on the table though... wait till your team doesnt have a Yes score on 1st inning and start betting it from 2nd game or if you really want to be careful start betting it from 3rd game. that would drop the units lost by at least 6 units or more doing a 2 game chase starting 2nd game. What do you guys think?
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there is one more options but means you might leave some money on the table though... wait till your team doesnt have a Yes score on 1st inning and start betting it from 2nd game or if you really want to be careful start betting it from 3rd game. that would drop the units lost by at least 6 units or more doing a 2 game chase starting 2nd game. What do you guys think?
All those suggestions would need to go through the database and see if it spits out positive units every season. I agree the spread between under and over in 1st inning is greater but overall the under has less juice vs the over. From my book at least. BOL everyone and do share your findings. Hopefully this system can turn out to be viable.
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All those suggestions would need to go through the database and see if it spits out positive units every season. I agree the spread between under and over in 1st inning is greater but overall the under has less juice vs the over. From my book at least. BOL everyone and do share your findings. Hopefully this system can turn out to be viable.
what we need is some positive juice which you can't get with 1st inning bets. Once in a while you might get lucky but it won't be consistent.
As I had said earlier in my thread I have used this same chase system for other bets as well. full game unders, over, 1st 5 overs, under, TT overs and also 1st 5 ML. on some of those bets you can get + juice specially on the 1st 5 ML or if your book allows you the alternate 1st 5 RL (where you take the Dog as - 1/2 RL). If you guys are interested we can switch gears to that or we can still try to tweak this system here. Either way I'm tracking all of the above for the series starting tomorrow but I can tell you how they did this weekend..
1st 5 Over 5-0 (4 hit on the 1st game)
Full game Overs not so good 6-3 ( no surprise there since 55% of games are going under since after all star break)
Full game Under 15-0, I'm not even joking. with 11 of them on the 1st game, 3 on 2nd game , 1 on 3rd game
TT Unders 6-0 with 4 of them on 1st game 1 on 2nd game 1 on 3rd game
1st 5 ML/RL 6-0 , 4 of them on 1st game, 1 on 2nd game, 1 on 3rd game
1st 5 TT Unders, 5-0 all on 1st game
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what we need is some positive juice which you can't get with 1st inning bets. Once in a while you might get lucky but it won't be consistent.
As I had said earlier in my thread I have used this same chase system for other bets as well. full game unders, over, 1st 5 overs, under, TT overs and also 1st 5 ML. on some of those bets you can get + juice specially on the 1st 5 ML or if your book allows you the alternate 1st 5 RL (where you take the Dog as - 1/2 RL). If you guys are interested we can switch gears to that or we can still try to tweak this system here. Either way I'm tracking all of the above for the series starting tomorrow but I can tell you how they did this weekend..
1st 5 Over 5-0 (4 hit on the 1st game)
Full game Overs not so good 6-3 ( no surprise there since 55% of games are going under since after all star break)
Full game Under 15-0, I'm not even joking. with 11 of them on the 1st game, 3 on 2nd game , 1 on 3rd game
TT Unders 6-0 with 4 of them on 1st game 1 on 2nd game 1 on 3rd game
1st 5 ML/RL 6-0 , 4 of them on 1st game, 1 on 2nd game, 1 on 3rd game
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