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Score in 1st inning 3 game series chase

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by SBT:

All those suggestions would need to go through the database and see if it spits out positive units every season. I agree the spread between under and over in 1st inning is greater but overall the under has less juice vs the over. From my book at least. BOL everyone and do share your findings. Hopefully this system can turn out to be viable. 

I do have to say though, you can't compare this year or last year even to previous years. Totals have changed. Amount of homeruns have changed because of the balls, You can compare scoring to previous years so I don't think that's a way to work on this system. #s are so off from previous years and scoring so much less. You have to use same season data if the team has not changed very much that what it used to be before all star break. That's my 2 cents
 
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Posted: #52
Extremist, The query is a bit confusing, but can we run a few that goes over each scenario, Over FG, Under FG, Score in 1st, No Score in 1st, that has which one loses the least(3 in a row) over the span of 5 years. Then we can see which chase is most profitable
 
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Posted: #53
here's a query for all the chases in 1. I labeled them so you understand which is for what. 

A(runs<4 or p:runs<4 or pp:runs<4) as TeamTotal Under 4 runs,A(U or p:U or pp:U) as Full game Under,A(S5+o:S5>5 or p:S5+op:S5>5 or pp:S5+opp:S5>5) as 1st 5 Over 5,A(M5>0 or p:M5>0 or pp:M5>0) as 1st 5 ML, A(R1+o:R1>0 or p:R1+op:R1>0 or pp:R1+opp:R1>0) as Score in 1st@team and season=2017 and AASB and SGS=3=SG 
 
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Posted: #54
Since ASB Tor. is 24yes-18no and Ari is 23yes-15no--Arizona had 4 losses in a row against Houston but it was 2 at home and 2 away so they were not 3 game series.I'm going to try a Labby Line on both teams
 
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Posted: #55
I'm going to wait untill I get back from Corpus Christi before making final decision and see what you guys have to say.
 
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Posted: #56
Remember we haven't lost on Tor or Ari yet this year
 
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Posted: #57
I will get to work on this, just to clarify:  SGS=3=SG  is the syntax for only in 3 series games? Basically only if teams play each other 3 times no more/no less
 
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Posted: #58
Yes and it's also the third game.
 
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Posted: #59
what do you mean by also the third game? sorry just a bit confused
 
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Posted: #60
that' means it's a 3 game series and its the 3rd game of the series and they you work backward you say if lets say...if you are doing the 1st 5...M5>0 or p:M5>0 or pp:M5>0.. get it ? M5 is the 3rd game and p:M5 would be the 2nd game and ppp:M5 would be the 1st game in the series. this is basic SDQL bro. 
 
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Posted: #61
its same as saying SGS=3 and SG=3 in short term SGS=3=SG
 
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Posted: #62
UNDER CHASE1ST 5 OVER 5 CHASESCORE ON 1ST CHASE
UNDER CHASE1ST 5 OVER 5 CHASESCORE ON 1ST CHASE
 
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Posted: #63
it's not letting me copy and paste on here from Excel so I'm going to put up a link for google docs so you guys can see the chases Im about to start today in each category.
 
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Posted: #64
here's the link. List of all the teams in each category that I will be chasing and tracking. all the teams have 100% win rate after all star break. When compared to past years all the way back to 2012 , 1st 5 over 5 runs was the only one that had not 1 winner left at the end of each year but the rest all had a more than a few teams left with 100% win rate.

these are my teams and my chases:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gHyu1DTnzt5CqS1PM8SazUqpQqQn0V5kpvGHYGmMArc/edit?usp=sharing


 
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Posted: #65
I guess I misunderstood the logic, if it's backtesting the last 3 why is the query saying SG=3 getting the current instance of a 3rd series games
 
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Posted: #66
you're confusing me bro. Not sure what you are asking but the query is right. the #s you see are percentages of how many times a team has had success at least winning the bet out of the 3 games. Hence ist's a 3 game series chase. starts at game 1 and ends in game 3 against the same team. SDQL query you have to run word it like I did. You are looking at 3 games 1st, 2nd, 3rd you are saying ... 

was there a score in game 3 or was the a score in game 2 or was there a score in game 1 and what's the percentage that one of these happend in every series.. do you understand? don't think you are very proficient in SDQL so this is gonna be tough for you to understand. 
 
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Posted: #67
Last 10 Years Combined Under 3SG chase 86% winrate

Last 5 Years Combined Under 3SG chase 85% winrate

Seems stable and we get -110 Lines on them, by being selective with teams Im sure we can boost our season percentage by 5-8%

Last 10 Years Combined score 1st Inn 3SG chase 89% winrate 

Last 5 Years Combined score 1st Inn 3SG chase 89% winrate 

Really good numbers but juice isn't as good as the Unders System but winrate looks awesome, probably can boost it by being selective by 5%, lemme know what you guys think.
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by PickleRick:

Last 10 Years Combined Under 3SG chase 86% winrate

Last 5 Years Combined Under 3SG chase 85% winrate

Seems stable and we get -110 Lines on them, by being selective with teams Im sure we can boost our season percentage by 5-8%

Last 10 Years Combined score 1st Inn 3SG chase 89% winrate 

Last 5 Years Combined score 1st Inn 3SG chase 89% winrate 

Really good numbers but juice isn't as good as the Unders System but winrate looks awesome, probably can boost it by being selective by 5%, lemme know what you guys think.

NICE!! The key is team selection like you stated (being selective out of the teams win 0 losses) only a handful make it the end with 0 losses. Key is to figure out which ones. The way I narrowed my selection down from 10 lets say to 5 is that I also look for their streaks. Team with the least 3 game streaks going the opposite direction or even least 2 game streaks are what i look for. Whether its over under streaks, win streaks or etc.. when I say 3 game streak it means 1 game could be from the series before and 2 games from next series and at the same time of course 0 losses on 3 game series vs the same team. Also look at their opponents record when playing the same trend. i.e if a team is 50% on a 3 game series chasing an under than I know that decreases my chances of it hitting under and possibly burning my team down for its first loss. Like to have 2 teams that rank high in that particular wager. 1 with 100% success rate and the other over 90% for example. that would be my top pick and would stay away from a 100% vs a 50%. that would go either way. 
 
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Posted: #69
Awesome, quick question as you seem very experienced in SDQL and Im just starting out.

Is there a mean feature?

I feel like that would help alot more than average as we need just 1 instance of a low scoring game. With averages 1 large game can skew good results.

For instance, Team A can have 3 totals 6, 12, 7

and Team B can have 8, 9, 9

Both have the same average over 3 games, but team A would more likely be successful at hitting the Under 2 of the 3
 
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Posted: #70
[Quote: Originally Posted by The_Extremist] here's the link. List of all the teams in each category that I will be chasing and tracking. all the teams have 100% win rate after all star break. When compared to past years all the way back to 2012 , 1st 5 over 5 runs was the only one that had not 1 winner left at the end of each year but the rest all had a more than a few teams left with 100% win rate.

these are my teams and my chases:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gHyu1DTnzt5CqS1PM8SazUqpQqQn0V5kpvGHYGmMArc/edit?usp=sharing


and the pick is ?

 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by PickleRick:

Awesome, quick question as you seem very experienced in SDQL and Im just starting out.

Is there a mean feature?

I feel like that would help alot more than average as we need just 1 instance of a low scoring game. With averages 1 large game can skew good results.

For instance, Team A can have 3 totals 6, 12, 7

and Team B can have 8, 9, 9

Both have the same average over 3 games, but team A would more likely be successful at hitting the Under 2 of the 3

not sure. because I don't experiment with averages and I dont believe in them in trends. When it's Under, it's not under a certain total. it's just under. If I were to look for trends for teams that have 1 out of 3 under a certain # that that would be a different percentage and different teams to look at but since totals change from one game to the next there's no way to predict when you're at game 1 that would total game 3 would have. So we bet under all 3 no matter what the total. and with doing that you still have teams that don't take any losses all year using the system.
 
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Posted: #72
BTW.. the original list that I had for teams in score 1st were , Blue Jays, Dbacks, Giants, Nationals, Marlins and Padres. If you noticed 2 of those teams are playing 2 of the other teams on the list. I believe that increases the odds. Nats and Marlins had score on 1st but Giants and Padres didn't This is perfect opportunity to do a 2 game chase today and tomorrow on the Giants. Plus the Dbacks chase today
 
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Posted: #73
Giants Padres on Game 3 of the chase today! 
 
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Posted: #74
So going to be using the whole seasons trends instead of just after all star break. Noticing alot of team breaking their post all star break trends. We have better odds if the team hasn't lost on the system since beginning of system. Less teams but more accurate. Not only am I going to be looking at the team but also how its opponents trends are on the same prop. ie. how many times the opp has swept an under in 1st 5 innings for example. 

The score on 1st is still perfect with just using Dbacks and Blue Jays. if you played Giants and Padres they you'll know they took their 1st loss after all star break. That would leave only Marlins and Nationals along with the other 2 if you chose to play all 4.

Still tracking my systems on google docs but will be changing some team selections for the series starting Friday. They all did really well except the 1st 5 inning RL/ML. That's my fault and I know what my mistake was and will have it corrected but it ended up wiping away all my winning from the series. got 2 more chases left for tomorrow 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Rough loss but systems always start out a bit rocky while getting the foundation set up!
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