RL -1 6 game Chase

Question

This is very similar to the one prof8t is doing with two fairly significant differences:

1. Going with the RL -1 in MOST situations (made from the RL -1.5 and the ML), unless the line is too significant and the RL -1.5 is a favorite, in which case I will take the -1.5. Such as today.

2. Going with the OPENING favorite and not the favorite at whatever time I place the bet. It's for uniformity purposes, as my computer access time will differ by day and I don't want to be stuck in a position where that becomes a variable.

The main premise, while I run the risk of being redundant, is to take the favorite opening ML (most juice) and bet them on the RL -1. If I win, the "series" starts over again. If I lose, we go on to the next day's favorite to make my unit of profit AND make back the money lost from the previous bet. This continues until previous bets of the "series" are covered or 6 games are hit. a 6 game chase is rare (knock on wood).

A push, since this is a possibility in my scenario, means no action and the "series" continues on the same game, as there is no loss on that day that requires recovery.

Despite it being a pure system, there may be times where I refrain from playing or perhaps take the 2nd best favorite. If something looks like a complete joke to me and I don't think it's a safe heavy favorite, I might play another team instead. And on days where there simply are no real true favorites, like on Thursday, where there were not that many games, there will be no play.

So here we go...

05/29 (yesterday's pick...Game A):
NYM -1 @ -114.
Push (Final: 2-1)

05/30 (Game A again):
PHI -1.5 @ -109

I booked this last night on Matchbook, so I saved a little. The line you can get on there is currently -116, which is still not that bad, IMO...considering the matchup.

andy88c · Answer

This is very similar to the one prof8t is doing with two fairly significant differences:

1. Going with the RL -1 in MOST situations (made from the RL -1.5 and the ML), unless the line is too significant and the RL -1.5 is a favorite, in which case I will take the -1.5. Such as today.

2. Going with the OPENING favorite and not the favorite at whatever time I place the bet. It's for uniformity purposes, as my computer access time will differ by day and I don't want to be stuck in a position where that becomes a variable.

The main premise, while I run the risk of being redundant, is to take the favorite opening ML (most juice) and bet them on the RL -1. If I win, the "series" starts over again. If I lose, we go on to the next day's favorite to make my unit of profit AND make back the money lost from the previous bet. This continues until previous bets of the "series" are covered or 6 games are hit. a 6 game chase is rare (knock on wood).

A push, since this is a possibility in my scenario, means no action and the "series" continues on the same game, as there is no loss on that day that requires recovery.

Despite it being a pure system, there may be times where I refrain from playing or perhaps take the 2nd best favorite. If something looks like a complete joke to me and I don't think it's a safe heavy favorite, I might play another team instead. And on days where there simply are no real true favorites, like on Thursday, where there were not that many games, there will be no play.

So here we go...

05/29 (yesterday's pick...Game A):
NYM -1 @ -114.
Push (Final: 2-1)

05/30 (Game A again):
PHI -1.5 @ -109

I booked this last night on Matchbook, so I saved a little. The line you can get on there is currently -116, which is still not that bad, IMO...considering the matchup.

jbrent95 · Answer

Thanks Andy....&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;ve been using the system that you&#x27;re posting.  I typically don&#x27;t like to give 1.5 runs for a home team.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Thanks for posting.

prof8t · Answer

andy,For the sake of the forum, you may want to explain to them the steps involved to achieve the -1 run line. Also, do you have a program that will figure this out?

andy88c · Answer

Well, on Matchbook that is easy to do because you can see how much you are staking and how much you are making. Honestly, even if you don't use Matchbook as your book, just plug in the numbers from YOUR book into their "betting sheet" (you don't need to be a member to do this) and you will have correct numbers.

The UNIT you are betting to win should be equal to the amount you are STAKING on the Run Line -1.5. added to the potential win from the Run Line -1.5.

Then, the potential win for the Money Line should equal to the amount you are staking on the Run Line -1.5. So, if the game ends at a 2-1 game.

This only works for a + RL number and a - ML number. As you can see, laying juice for two negatives is still a heck of a lot of juice...and I played PHI on the pure RL -1.5, as I did tonight.

Other ways to do this include Excel programs (there are some that can be downloaded or you can create your own with the above parameters) and that some books automatically offer RL -1's. I know Pinnacle has these, but obviously Americans can't use it.

Hope that helps.

Tomorrow's play is going to be Milwaukee. Will lock it in on Matchbook at some point and let y'all know what it is. It will be Series 2/Game A, as I won tonight.

andy88c · Answer

05/31:MIL RL -1 @ -129ML -182/RL -1.5 &#x2B;115Matchbook currently has the ML at -181 and the RL at &#x2B;120. I locked this in overnight and the line got less juicy. It happens sometimes.System YTD: 1-0Overall YTD: 1-0-1

andy88c · Answer

Another win with MIL today. Tomorrow&#x27;s opening favorite was LAD with Kuroda vs. Billy Buckner. This will quite possibly be a no play for me. Remember, I will not force a play on days with a lesser number of games. This is the only heavy favorite tomorrow.Why this might be a no play:Kuroda gave up 5 ER (7 total) in 5 IP in his rehab start. First start back off the DL for him.Dodgers are playing right now. The rule is that a day game after a night game is a no play, but the Dodgers do have to travel, although their game is at 10:15. I think the Dodgers end up taking this game, but I think the line is way overvalued (opening was -168).

stickman80733 · Answer

im w ya andy, im gonna start tomorrow &amp; paly LA - 1

andy88c · Answer

Stickman, might not be the best day to start it, IMO. Good to have you aboard, though.

diamonddicer · Answer

Why not roll with the yanks then??? They didn&#x27;t open up as high of a fav as the dodgers but the are a bigger fav now at -170...the yanks have much more value than the dodgers tonight in my opinion...sowers is a joke

andy88c · Answer

Good point, diamond, and had I played this last night like I was thinking about, it would've been NYY. As of now, though, that line has jumped to the point that I'd rather not touch it. NYY's pen is better, but still isn't all that good. And conversely, the LAD line has gotten considerably better. Kuroda may not do that hot, but Buckner is filler and the LAD pen has the edge.

Play will be on LAD. Waiting for someone on MB to match my bets. Will post when they are locked.

stickman80733 · Answer

hey Andy, have ya documented how many times the - 1 1/2 vs - 1 has mattered ???  i like the comfort of the push over the -1 I tell ya that, BOL, lets get em

andy88c · Answer

Check post #55 here. This guy backtracks the plays for 2008 here with the RL -1 and RL -1.5. This is actually a very informative thread overall that got me to do this system. I would recommend reading it all, minus the commentary crap that makes up a decent amount of it.

https://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/166494-system-integrity-p2.html

Basically, if you think about it in theory, the RL -1.5 will end up in LONGER chases, where you will thus wager larger figures total as you cover losses. However, the RL -1 will result in higher INDIVIDUAL wagers, but the -1 push "stalls" the chase because it is a push.

The numbers, if you check the links (someone else backtracked even more), say that the total profits will end up fairly similar. However, for a chase system, I would rather wager more on INDIIVDUAL bets rather than making chases longer...which is where chases have a higher chance of failing.

BOL.

andy88c · Answer

06/01:LAD RL -1 @ -109ML -155/RL -1.5 &#x2B;134System YTD: 2-0Overall YTD: 2-0-1This one&#x27;s a bit shaky but we&#x27;ll see how it works out.

stickman80733 · Answer

Padres today ? or Yankees ?

andy88c · Answer

NYY is the play I think. Vegas had NYY as the biggest favorite with SD at #3 or so, I think. Rather large reverse line movement on both SD and NYM, who were both up there. Lots of long favs today...those three and TOR. The -1 system usually works better for home teams, honestly, because away teams have smaller splits between the ML and RL since they will bat 9 innings no matter what and will gun to score as many runs as possible instead of just one to win in extra innings if it is tied afte r9.

I think reverse line movement may be a possible filter for this system, by the way.

andy88c · Answer

Play on NYY. Locked at -183/&#x2B;110. Remember that this is Game B, so your "to win" should be your unit PLUS what you lost yesterday.

Underdog11 · Answer

GL with the system it seems solid.  But have you backtracked the results?  And if so how well or not well did it do in terms of units, thanks.

andy88c · Answer

Underdog, thanks for the feedback. Check the link in Post #12. I personally haven't backtracked results, but the posted backtrack looks very solid. There is also information elsewhere in the thread that backtracks it before for about a decade before 2008, as well.

It really comes down to this. Each bet escalates. Say this scenario. I'm going to use 1.25 u to win 1 u as an example...most will perhaps be even more.
Game 1: Lose 1.25.
Game 2: Lose 1.5 (to win the 1.25), lose 1.25 again
Game 3: Lose ~say 3.5 to win 2.75, lose 1.25 again
Game 4: Lose ~say 8 u to win 6.75 u, lose 1.25 again...

So you're going to be placing pretty large bets on one game if the chase gets large. That being said, that is why I love the RL -1, as it has shown to decrease the length of chases. However, if history repeats itself, it will work out. Knock on wood.

andy88c · Answer

play will be on LAD tonight.

andy88c · Answer

play will be on CWS today. NYY is dq&#x27;d with the pitching change. opening lines had lots of heavy favs...mainly tb, stl, hou, and cws. like the cws matchup best, even if other lines moved juicier. it&#x27;s game A again. push last night.

andy88c · Answer

Wow...Buehrle losing 4-0 to Anderson in teh 6th. To an Oakland team that is horrific at hitting lefties. DId not see this one coming.

It's sort of not kosher with the system in mind but I'm probably going to play the STL -1 as well tonight as a Game B game.

andy88c · Answer

Played STL. This is unconventional and will RARELY happen, but these three teams basically opened the day as co-favorites, so I really don't see a difference between STL tonight and say, another heavy favorite on another day. Also like them capping without the system, too, actually.

andy88c · Answer

Sorry I haven&#x27;t been posting regularly. Internet at home has been down till now and been away from the comp at work. Haven&#x27;t been able to post consistently. So here&#x27;s a bit of a recap:06/02:Series 3 Game B: NYY vs. TEX RL -1 @ -135 to win 2uResult: WIN06/03:Series 4 Game A: LAD vs. ARI RL -1 @ -136 to win 1uResult: PUSH06/04:Series 4 Game A: CWS vs. OAK RL -1 @ -111 to win 1uResult: LOSSSeries 4 Game B: STL vs. CIN RL -1 @ -123 to win 2uResult: WINSystem YTD: 4-0Overall YTD: 4-2-2

andy88c · Answer

Okay, now that we&#x27;re all caught up, let&#x27;s make some more $.Today&#x27;s play was going to be NYY but they rained out. Two possible plays here, IMO. STL and DET. DET&#x27;s lineup scares me (but I love the fact that they&#x27;re facing off against E. Santana), but the fact that STL doesn&#x27;t hit lefties well is disconcerting as well. Wainwright has been a rock, though, and has been absolutely absurd at home. I&#x27;ll go with STL again here, but we&#x27;ll see.So, official play is STL RL -1 vs. COL. Waiting for Matchbook bet to get matched at this point. This is Series 5 Game A. Chasing 1u.

RL -1 6 game Chase

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