RL -1 6 game Chase

for Tampa
Series 38 Game A
STL RL -1 vs. HOU
got the ML at -192 and the RL -1.5 at +122.

The whole world is on this game but I like it.

Series 39 Game A
BOS RL -1 @ BAL
got the ML at -142 and the RL at +110.

Tampa was an option and Bannister has been terrible away from Kauffman this year...but I could see a letdown on Sunday after an easy series thus far.

STL was an option, too. Like the matchup, but Norris' debut could present problems if they don't have a good scouting report. On the under as a side play here actually, amongst others.

Sorry boys been on a business trip. Have been making plays with relatively poor results. Here's the rundown:

8/3: Game A
PIT RL -1 @ +101 vs. WAS
LOSS

8/4: Game B
FLA RL -1.5 @ -105 @WAS
LOSS

8/5: Game C
Split play

DET RL -1 @ -130 vs. BAL
WIN

ATL RL -1 @-104 @ SD
WIN

So that series cleared.

This morning:
8/6: Game A
FLA RL -1.5 @ PK @WAS
LOSS

So tonight we have:

8/6: Game B
Split play

NYY RL -1.5 vs. BOS @ -103

ARI RL -1 @ PIT @ +108

System YTD: 40-0


USA, the system is 40-0. The actual overall YTD needs to be counted. I haven't been doing a good job of accounting lately, but I believe the plays are hitting at 60% or so...give or take.

Longest chase is the 4th day. But I also split lines a lot and stuff like that to decrease risk...

Thanks for the feedback, guys.

Boycali, honestly as far as I have been running this system, I have gone a little away from picking purely the highest juiced play of the day. Technically, the system does call for an RL play on the team with the highest ML.

You're not supposed to cap with systems, but then again, I feel confident enough in small, minor capping ability that I don't feel the need to strictly adhere to the system. Kreatture has done something similar.

The FLA game was a bit of a risk but I figured with a Game A, it was worth a situational shot. I really didn't think the Nats would sweep them, especially with the gas can Stammen pitching (the kid barely touches 90 with the fb), but hey, strange things happen.

The ARI game was one where I capped and really felt like ARI was gonna take it. Well...I got very lucky here with a 5 run 12th, but I felt strongly about the game. Hart's peripherals and minor league track record are not in line with his current ERA and the fact that linesmakers gave the D-Backs a decent favorite line over a Pirates team that plays well at home told me something. I also put this in before I saw the D-Backs' AAA lineup (no Upton, Ryan Roberts, C. Young)...but like I said, you win some like this.

In regards to why I split the line, when there are two games I like on the board, I feel like it is a decent way to alleviate risk.

USA Surfer, I haven't actually backtracked that far. I believe in the thread labeled "System Integrity" on the sbrforums, they do backtrack it and find STUNNING results for the RL -1. I think it may never have lost the past few years.

But honestly oftentimes it does not make feasible sense to play the -1 because it gets heavily juiced.

I have chosen to alelviate risk, as I said, by splitting lines. Once I get to a Game C or D...I'm starting to play two games at once just so I don't have all my eggs in one basket. For instance, if you lose two, well that sucks, but it's on to the enxt game. If you win both, you clear. If you win one, lose one...it's a wash and you're basically chasing the same game another day. It extends the days of your chase without adding more $ to chase. I also figure with heavily juiced teams...chances are larger that you win 2 than lose 2 at a time...

I said this last week but I'll really try to work on that spreadsheet this weekend. Needs to be updated rather badly.

8/7: Series 41 Game A and Series 42 Game A

Love two games tonight starting concurrently, so I'm playing both for a unit each.

CWS RL -1
TOR RL -1

If both win, two series clear. If one wins, one series clears and Game B chase for the other. If both lose, then I'll put one line aside for a Game B chase and Game B chase the other. SF is the probable play tonight regardless of what happens.

Wow talk about being way off tonight. Looks like two losses pretty sure. Jeremy Sowers has well below average stuff and relies heavily on command...and it seems like he has it tonight. And Buehrle has done jack shit and has actually been bailed out by quite a few DPs.

So I will hold one of those losses till later...(next series will start as a Game B)

I hear ya.. I couldn't have been more wrong about these 2 games as well. At least the Cards bailed me out with a run in the 9th to cover.

Going with the Giants right now for Max recovery of the Jays and Sox losses. The Jays aren't quite dead yet.. but tough to win by 2 now.

Good Luck

Chasing Game C tomorrow. Will be split for sure. I hate the SF bullpen. What pieces of shit. 5-3 lead and then Affeldt/Romo blow it...and at that point, with the -1.5, it really didn't matter anymore. Down 10-5 now.

Looking at:
NYY, DET, ARI, PHI, TB tomorrow. We'll see.

"The key to everything is patience. You get the chicken by hatching the egg, not by smashing it."
-Arnold H. Glasgow

This is really an interesting day. There are an utter crapload of large juice favorites...not 100% sure where to go with this one.

Series 41 Game C
Split play:
ARI RL -1.5 @ WAS
PHI RL -1.5 vs. FLA
LAA RL -1.5 vs. TEX

Series 42 Game B:
Split play:
NYY RL -1.5 vs. BOS
DET RL -1.5 vs. MIN

Going to chase both lines today. Like the card. Hopefully this turns out to be a good day, or else we could be in for some trouble...

Disaster.

Putting the lone win back into Series 41 and holding 42.

Chasing 11.07 units today:
1/3 of it on TOR RL -1.5
1/3 of it on LAA RL -1.5
1/6 of it on SF RL -1
1/12 of it on NYM 1H
1/12 of it on NYM ML

Tough. basically came out even, with TOR, NYM covering (chase for literally half of the units), while LAA and SF went down in flames. Really wish I had the stones to just play TOR for all of it, but I spread the risk around...

No plays tonight probably. Looking at NYY tomorrow (Joba vs. Richmond), ATL (Hanson vs. Lannan), MIN (Blackburn vs. Davies), and TB TT over vs. E. Santana.

Been hitting the spot plays pretty good which has definitely helped. Made a good chunk Sun night with the Yanks and the Yanks under.

Ended up playing STL RL -1 last night for about 1/6 to 1/5 of the total loss...so that helps a bit, too.

Looking at the games mentioned above for today. Hopefully will get some of this $ cleaned up a bit.

Chasing 8.86 units today:
50% on the NYY RL -1.5 vs. TOR
20% on the ATL RL -1.5 vs. WAS
20% on the MIN RL -1.5 vs. KC
10% on the COL RL -1.5 vs. PIT

Potentially might add more to COL if the others look bad early. Also looking at playing the Tampa TT over or the game Over but will lock that later (10:15 start time).

10:05 start actually

Increasing COL to a 20% of original chase play. MIN is basically done...Yanks on the ropes. Might just chalk this one up as an L instead of trying to chase more...

Well.. best of luck andy. Tough starts by the Yanks an Twins.

But the Jays usually implode late an the Yanks score in bunches late.
And well, the Royals ARE the Royals and the Twins lineup tonight should mash that starter.. it is only the 2nd inning still..

I'm on the Pirates +1.5 tonight myself, guess 1 of us is guaranteed to win some money back! LoL
No way in hell should a crappy AAA pitcher be favored by that much against Ohlendorf. The Pirates may lack bite, but they usually compete hard.

Cheers      come on Yankees!!!!!!!

Chacin is a top prospect who the Pirates haven't seen before. Thought he'd do better. Ohlendorf is terrible on the road...so he'll prob give up some more runs, but at this point, it may not be enough.

Yanks look like toast. Need three in the bottom of the eighth basically...

I'm going to stick a fork in this chase and call it a loss. Back to the drawing board and going to try to recoup losses slowly. Can't extend this chase any more...it just doesn't make $ sense. Lesson learned here from trying to force way too many plays.

I hope that's just a plastic fork u stuck in that Chase andy.. Cuz the Yankees just turned up the heat and melted it!!!

GO YANKEES GO !!!

Well.. wasn't that a good sweat 9th inning..?

Nothing like a good sweat to get the blood flowin, eh ??


Oh, Mariano!! 

Haha thanks Kreatture. Thank God Mo didn't let another in. Yeah I hate Colorado...oh well. Good spot for them tonight then.

So I came out on top by like a unit yesterday. I was on tilt and put two units on the Tampa/LAA over...looked great...except Santana pitched a shutout. What the hell..?

Let's try to finally make some progress today. Enough of the status quo.

Kicking things off with NYY to win 1.74 units.

Total chase left: 8.7 units including 1 unit to win

RL -1.5 obviously. Freaking Yankees benching Teixeira today, who loves hitting lefties this year. Oh well...Romero's peripherals don't support his ERA, so let's hope for a bombing today.