Posted:
#451
What about cards?
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Official (?) RPI 2013 system
Posted:
#454
Quote Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:
Yes and I believe even if it was a diff of 50, the Cubs have been playing much better as of late which if memory serves makes it a no bet anyway.
Yes and I believe even if it was a diff of 50, the Cubs have been playing much better as of late which if memory serves makes it a no bet anyway.
If the Cards would have qualified based on RPI difference, it would have been a play. STL 7-3 in last 10, Cubs 6-4. STL has also won 5 in a row.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Posted:
#455
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
If the Cards would have qualified based on RPI difference, it would have been a play. STL 7-3 in last 10, Cubs 6-4. STL has also won 5 in a row.
Ya, the one thing I don't like about this system is interpreting the rule about the lower RPI playing significantly better baseball over the "last week or so."
I think of the Cubs more as being 9-5 with 3 of those losses being 1 run games. Much better than what they were. Plus the Cubs are just weird. And they won 3-0 tonight vs STL.
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Posted:
#465
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:
DanRules - have you been keeping an eye on the filters? Are the large amount of plays due to using a 3 game threshold instead of 4 - just wondering why so many plays this year - and along with that way more C game losses
DanRules - have you been keeping an eye on the filters? Are the large amount of plays due to using a 3 game threshold instead of 4 - just wondering why so many plays this year - and along with that way more C game losses
There have only been 4 plays that had the 3 game spread, all in early May. We suffered a loss on the Bos/Tex series that started 5/3. Bos was a V69. We won on the A game in the other 3 series - 5/3 on KC at home vs ChiSox, 5/6 on AZ at LAD and 5/9 on AZ at home vs Philly.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
Posted:
#468
Quote Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:
I'm thinking about ditching ATL and doubling up on STL. After a loss they are 77.8% likely to win and they are 62.8% likely to win at home every time. I would chase them 4 easily.
I'm thinking about ditching ATL and doubling up on STL. After a loss they are 77.8% likely to win and they are 62.8% likely to win at home every time. I would chase them 4 easily.
Atlanta barely qualifies as it is. I'm going to wait to see if their entire OF is still injured or not. The Sox qualify as one of the temas I'm betting against post ASB so I'll be playing that regardless, but maybe less than my normal amount. We'll see.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
Posted:
#470
Quote Originally Posted by GregTek:
Dan - do you happen to have this years YTD or +/- units record? cuz I've been changing my units and don't have the full stats butt I know I'm up for a few units - just curious what's the official record...
Dan - do you happen to have this years YTD or +/- units record? cuz I've been changing my units and don't have the full stats butt I know I'm up for a few units - just curious what's the official record...
I've done the same thing. If you bet each series to win 1 unit and bet less than 1 unit when a team was an underdog (x to win 1 unit) the losses would be 40.41 units, so overall you'd be up 30.59 units based on 71 wins.
There will be some variances based on what lines you get compared to mine, rounding or if you bet 1 unit to win more than 1 on the underdogs. The Boston series was all underdogs so instead of losing 7 on that, I lost a little under 5.
I'm very happy that we are still at a decent gain even with 4 losses. I'm not liking that 16% have gone to a C game.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
Posted:
#473
I have created a Google doc spreadsheet for the RPI MLB system. I've added the 2013 plays to date. I've also started to add the 2012 plays. Start of the 2012 year up to the all star break. I think the spreadsheet should be publicly visible. I'll add more 2012 plays and maybe get back to 2011.
If this spreadsheet link doesn't work, let me know. I'll try to correct the it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvefeUqszdq1dEdkUDE3UHlkdWZmTFJvdE45LXhDMkE&usp=sharing
A few note about the RPI system 2012 vs 2013.
1. In 2012 the forum started on April 30. They lost 2 series right from the start. So they said, let's start over with the first series of May. I think this is fraudulent. If you publish an "official" play, then it needs to count. No mulligans. I've included the now officially deleted plays from 2012. Also, the forum from 2012 is a pain to follow. Far too much bickering about things other than the RPI system. It was difficult to sort out. Also, they made at least one error, which I have corrected. IMHO, the 2013 forum is much easier to following. Thx.
2. For me there is one key measure above all else to a system's success: ROI. 2012 up to all star break is 6.24% 2013 is 10.46%. I usually consider 10% the cut off point for blindly following a system. Anything under 10% is too risky to follow without additional handicapping. Right now 2013 RPI is right at that 10% cut off point. I have followed the RPI system in prior years and I think 2012 was a bad year. Years prior to 2012 did much better.
3. Big difference between 2012 and 2013 plays. A lot more in 2013 that in 2012. 2012 first half had 79 games (45 series), 2013 had 114 (75 series).
4.
game 1 2012 WL=18-27 2013 WL=48-27
game 2 2012 WL=20-7 2013 WL=15-12
game 3 2012 WL=4-3 2013 WL=8-4
In 2012 game 2 was a huge success. In 2013 it looks like game 1.
5. 2012 road vs home plays, 16v 26h.
2013 road vs home plays, 28v 37h.
4 games series with extended plays 2012 VH=2-1 2013 VH=5-5.
6. 2012 avg play -141, 2013 avg play -150.
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Posted:
#474
Quote Originally Posted by fulkgl:
I have created a Google doc spreadsheet for the RPI MLB system. I've added the 2013 plays to date. I've also started to add the 2012 plays. Start of the 2012 year up to the all star break. I think the spreadsheet should be publicly visible. I'll add more 2012 plays and maybe get back to 2011.
I have created a Google doc spreadsheet for the RPI MLB system. I've added the 2013 plays to date. I've also started to add the 2012 plays. Start of the 2012 year up to the all star break. I think the spreadsheet should be publicly visible. I'll add more 2012 plays and maybe get back to 2011.
If this spreadsheet link doesn't work, let me know. I'll try to correct the it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvefeUqszdq1dEdkUDE3UHlkdWZmTFJvdE45LXhDMkE&usp=sharing
A few note about the RPI system 2012 vs 2013.
1. In 2012 the forum started on April 30. They lost 2 series right from the start. So they said, let's start over with the first series of May. I think this is fraudulent. If you publish an "official" play, then it needs to count. No mulligans. I've included the now officially deleted plays from 2012. Also, the forum from 2012 is a pain to follow. Far too much bickering about things other than the RPI system. It was difficult to sort out. Also, they made at least one error, which I have corrected. IMHO, the 2013 forum is much easier to following. Thx.
2. For me there is one key measure above all else to a system's success: ROI. 2012 up to all star break is 6.24% 2013 is 10.46%. I usually consider 10% the cut off point for blindly following a system. Anything under 10% is too risky to follow without additional handicapping. Right now 2013 RPI is right at that 10% cut off point. I have followed the RPI system in prior years and I think 2012 was a bad year. Years prior to 2012 did much better.
3. Big difference between 2012 and 2013 plays. A lot more in 2013 that in 2012. 2012 first half had 79 games (45 series), 2013 had 114 (75 series).
4.
game 1 2012 WL=18-27 2013 WL=48-27
game 2 2012 WL=20-7 2013 WL=15-12
game 3 2012 WL=4-3 2013 WL=8-4
In 2012 game 2 was a huge success. In 2013 it looks like game 1.
5. 2012 road vs home plays, 16v 26h.
2013 road vs home plays, 28v 37h.
4 games series with extended plays 2012 VH=2-1 2013 VH=5-5.
6. 2012 avg play -141, 2013 avg play -150.
Wow, that is some fine work my man. Thanks for posting this. I will check out the spreadsheet tomorrow when all the rum from the Red Rock is out of my system. 
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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