For Monday we have two plays - Detroit and Oakland. Detroit is a 4 game series so if they win today we start a new 3 game chase tomorrow.
Detroit is 44 point difference @ Chicago Sox
Oakland is plus 54 points @ Houston.
Record: 73-4
A: 50-27
B: 15-12
C: 8-4
Hey Dan and others, thanks for keeping this system rolling and all the tools and strategies that go along with it. As I am sure many of you do on a daily basis, I am always thinking of "other" profitable edges out there. Building off a system such as this, I was hoping someone has the proper data base to possibly backtest results with odds to see if it is profitable. I have only gone off assumptions and intuition of following the final scores everyday. I am not sure if this was brought up in previous years, as I am sure someone has thought of it.
Theory is:
For all qualifying teams who have won thier "A" game, and we have profited 1 unit, Fading the qualifying team in a 2 game chase in the B & C games for 0.25 units. I figure in most cases that team should be a dog, so risk is losing 0.75 units and profiting 0.25 in the series if the better team sweeps. If the fade comes in, we profit another ~0.25-0.5 units on top of the 1 from the A game. In cases of 4 game series, the qualifying team must win the first 2 games, then fade the qualifying team for the C & D game chase for 0.25 units. Maybe filter out Home versus Road and only fade if qualifying team wins thier "A" game and are on the road??
If any of you have a proper database to see if this would even be profitable, or more profitable, much appreciated. If this is not the right place to post let me know and i will move it.
GL 2 all
Hey Dan and others, thanks for keeping this system rolling and all the tools and strategies that go along with it. As I am sure many of you do on a daily basis, I am always thinking of "other" profitable edges out there. Building off a system such as this, I was hoping someone has the proper data base to possibly backtest results with odds to see if it is profitable. I have only gone off assumptions and intuition of following the final scores everyday. I am not sure if this was brought up in previous years, as I am sure someone has thought of it.
Theory is:
For all qualifying teams who have won thier "A" game, and we have profited 1 unit, Fading the qualifying team in a 2 game chase in the B & C games for 0.25 units. I figure in most cases that team should be a dog, so risk is losing 0.75 units and profiting 0.25 in the series if the better team sweeps. If the fade comes in, we profit another ~0.25-0.5 units on top of the 1 from the A game. In cases of 4 game series, the qualifying team must win the first 2 games, then fade the qualifying team for the C & D game chase for 0.25 units. Maybe filter out Home versus Road and only fade if qualifying team wins thier "A" game and are on the road??
If any of you have a proper database to see if this would even be profitable, or more profitable, much appreciated. If this is not the right place to post let me know and i will move it.
GL 2 all
I might have the info on this. I was tested something I called the Anti-RPI and that could translate over to what you are looking at. I need to run the numbers from the break forward. Giveme a bit and I'll come back with my findings.
JenJay - We have played 79 series to date. We need to eliminate the 27 A game losses by the qualifying team, leaving 52 series wins on the A game. Taking into account the 4 game series that the qualifying team won on the A game (prompting another A game), we are down to 43 series (I did not count the 2 series that won on the A game on 7/22)
13 of the 43 series were sweeps by the qualifying team. So you'd have 30 wins and 13 losses of 3 units each if we assume a dog scenario on the team we are betting on.
Just too many sweeps by the good teams.
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