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NHL Spoiler Part 2

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by NCTTC:

Sorry,  meant for Pittsburgh / Buffalo to be OVER 6!


NICE ! Was pondering this play but all this talk about both teams scoring a lot convinced me to play it. Nice start to the system plays tonight.
 
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Posted: #127
Hey guys - back to work tonight after going 1-2...I will post the plays I calculate and everyone can correct if needed. I know there are a lot of plays tonight including a 4 unit Islander play in their 3rd game!
 
What does everyone think of starting up a new thread? Takes forever to load this long one on the blackberry lol...Expert would you do the honors since many ppl search the thread by your name??
 
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Posted: #128
OK here is what I have for tonight...lot of OV 6's which suck - I think the bookies are catching on the the teams who are always over 6 lol:
 
NYI/ATL OV (no line yet) (4 units - game 3 of NYI chase)
ANA/CAL UN 5.5 (4 units - game 2 of chase for both ANA & CAL)
PHI/OTT OV 5.5 (2 units - game 1 of chase for both PHI & OTT)
WAS/NYR OV 5.5 (2 units - game 2 of chase for NYR)
BOS/NJD OV 5.5 (1 unit - game 1 of chase for NJD)
PIT/TB OV 6 (1 unit - game 1 of chase for PIT)
DAL/TOR OV 6 (1 unit - game 1 of chase for DAL)
CAR/MIN UN 5.5 (1 unit - game 1 of chase for CAR)
 
Let me know what you guys think and Best of Luck!
 
 
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Posted: #129
I got NY I Over 6 , but madden Guru I could of not done this any better, thanks for helping out on this chase it is well appreciated

Yes I will agree the bookies are catching on to what teams score more but look at last nights games the ones with the 6 all went over.


 
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Posted: #130
Boston/New Jersey-1 (O5 1/2)Atlanta/N.Y. Islanders-3 (O6)Washington/N. Y. Rangers-2 (O5 1/2)Ottawa-1/Philadelphia-1 (O5 1/2)Dallas-1/Toronto (O6)Tampa Bay/Pittsburgh-1 (O6)Carolina-1/Minnesota (U5 1/2)Anaheim-2/Calgary-2 (U5 1/2)

I have the same thing guys. Looks like we have 16 units in play tonight! Let's make some money then take a couple days off!!

 
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Posted: #131
Oh shit, a lot of over 6 here. The books are definitely catching on and this might mean trouble. Be careful fellas with the plays.

Expert, how about starting a new thread after the holiday break and it would be great if you could put the system strategy in the first post as well as the links to both PART 1 and PART 2 of the thread.

I'm really hoping you guys can hit the big unit plays for tonight before taking a break for the holidays. Either way, cheers .
 
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Posted: #132

All I want for Christmas is;

 

AN 8 GAME SWEEP!

 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

I got NY I Over 6 , but madden Guru I could of not done this any better, thanks for helping out on this chase it is well appreciated

Yes I will agree the bookies are catching on to what teams score more but look at last nights games the ones with the 6 all went over.


No problem its my pleasure - thanks for all that you do as well!

Best of luck here - big night ahead of us!

 
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Posted: #134
I'm going to be sad over the break with no hockey
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by MaddenGuru:

I'm going to be sad over the break with no hockey


We got a pretty solid tournament going on up here in Canada. The World Juniors are gonna kick off pretty soon. If you're a hockey fan, you'll love watching these boys play. They play hard, hit hard, and are quite talented. I'm even thinking of laying a bit of cash on Canada to win the whole thing but we're not as solid as the 4 other consecutive years we won.
 
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Posted: #136
Thanks again for another great night.

Anaheim looked like a winner until the last 10 minutes.
 
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Posted: #137
Expert, Since the NY Isalnders 3rd game chase was a push on the 23rd, Do we resume the 3rd game chase on the 26th?
 
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Posted: #138
Just an early look at fridays games.
 
Edmonton/Vancouver  (2nd game of Edmonton chase)
Buffalo/Washington   (1st game chase of both teams)
Philadelphia/Chicago   (2nd game of Chicago chase)
Phoenix/Los Angeles  (1st game of Phoenix chase)
 
 
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Posted: #139
One game not mentioned on the 26th was the NYI. Do we still chase the 3rd game on them?
 
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Posted: #140
Glad you mentioned that NCTTC yes when it pushes it is considered over. No we no longer chase the NY Islanders
 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

Glad you mentioned that NCTTC yes when it pushes it is considered over. No we no longer chase the NY Islanders

Expert I somewhat disagree...I haven't been using that theory. To me if we are chasing the Isles and they push and we stop we lose the first two games we lost on them. How could we stop and consider that an over win when we lost the first two games and didn't chase the 3rd game for profit. I see it as a free bet the next game because they pushed last game so really this is the 4th game of the chase but only the 3rd we have to pay for because they pushed last game.  I will be playing the over for 4 units as I did in their last game otherwise I would have to consider this chase a loss since there would be negative profit in the Isles chase up unil this point.

 
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Posted: #142
Also as a side not for everyone, as a result of their last game it seems as though Boston's avg goals for/against per game has dropped under the 6 goal mark.
 
We might want to consider removing them from the over list soon. (even though it seems as if they always go over haha)
 
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Posted: #143
OK here is what I have for tonight:
 
NYI/TOR OV 6 (4 units - game 3 of NYI chase)
NJD/PIT OV 5.5 (4 units - game 2 of chase for both)
PHI/CHI OV 6 (2 units - game 2 of CHI chase)
WAS/BUF OV (no line yet) (2 units - game 1 of chase for both)
EDM/VAN UN 5.5 (2 units - game 2 of chase for EDM)
PHO/LA UN 5.5 (1 unit - game 1 of chase for PHO)
 
As a side note - Boston no longer averages 6 goals scored in their games.  Also something interesting, Pitt and NJ are playing tonight and our system says take over because Pitt over takes precedence. However, if you add both of their averages and divide by 2 you have less than 6 goals expected to be scored. This means that the NJ average under is stronger than the Pitt average over. Something we may want to consider when over and under teams meet when deciding which way to go rather than just blindly giving the over preferential treatment. Also, see my logic in an earlier post about why I am taking the Isles over again.
 
Let me know what you guys think and Best of Luck!
 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by MaddenGuru:

Also something interesting, Pitt and NJ are playing tonight and our system says take over because Pitt over takes precedence. However, if you add both of their averages and divide by 2 you have less than 6 goals expected to be scored. This means that the NJ average under is stronger than the Pitt average over. Something we may want to consider when over and under teams meet when deciding which way to go rather than just blindly giving the over preferential treatment.
 
I'm sorry I meant to use WAS/BUF as the example for the average going under 6 goals for the game.  PIT/NJ actually averages a hair over the 6 goals.
 
WAS = 6.26
BUF = 5.74
6.26 + 5.74 = 11.99 / 2 = 5.996 ( I guess it is 6 if you round up but the point is there are matchups where the under will dominate for example if a strong under team like MIN (4.94) played a weak over team like the NYI (6.09).
 
 
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Posted: #145
Madden - Interesting points. This is where it becomes quite complex to track consistently since we are always inclined to make changes. But changes are somewhat deceptive because they usually tend to the decline of any system. Just thinking about changing rules is a sign that the trends are becoming too difficult to profit from. This is in my honest opinion but feel free to make any change you feel necessary.

As for the list of over teams, it is understandable to find it difficult to all agree on who should be there and how teams should be determined to be there. I think that till we find the results to be not sufficient, we can stick to what we have so far and make slight changes based on averages as you mention.

BOL with your all your plays Madden. I'll be rooting for ya .
 
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Posted: #146
all the chrismas money on the over in the Buf  vs Was game .... i am going to spoil the bookies this weekend .. they are going to think i have inside info on these hockey games ... BIG TIME SPOIL..
 
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Posted: #147
I guess the Islanders give us loss #3. My bets today.
 
Montreal/Pittsburgh (O6) - Game 1 of Mont. chase, game 3 of Pitt.
Detroit/Colorado (O5 1/2) - Game 1 of Colorado chase
 
New Jersey-3/NY Rangers-1 (U5) - Neither team an over team? I know we usually play over on a total of 5, but neither one is on the over list, so I play under.
 
NY Islanders/Buffalo (O6) - Game 2 of Buffalo chase
Florida-1/Tampa Bay--1 (O5) - Not part of chase B/C of 5 total
 
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Posted: #148
Very tough night. As any other system out there, what is of utmost importance is to know when things are starting to even out. IMHO, this is it. It's too tough to get a strong feeling of what filters to use here and the 3 game chase is rather limiting. BOL with your plays fellas .
 
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Posted: #149
Guys I can not stress enough be careful with these totals, be very choosy in playing these and do your calculations. Its starting to even out so watch what you play because it is getting very tricky.
We got 2 more wins making it 62-2 with the Islanders falling again.
 
 
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Posted: #150
Expert, I haven't followed lately but did the system not have 2 losses previously? So since the Islanders choked the 3rd game , that means 3 chase losses no? This would have been my cut off point since these chases cut into the profit significantly.
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