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NHL Spoiler Part 2

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Posted: #101
Good night guys +142 on the plays...so far since I started actually playing them the system is up $1050 using units of $50, $100, $200 for the 3 rounds of the chase with the only loss costing $383 on Columbus. I am curious to see how much the profit would be if we just played the under in every chase without a variation because it seems as though Eli is right with the chases getting expensive! San Jose has to be re-evaluated as an over team they go under every game. Only reason they went over against Det is because they got waxed 6-0 lol.
 
Should be two plays today I think:
 
MON/CAR Under (1 units, game 1 for MON)
 
FLA/COL Over (2 units, game 1 for both FLA & COL)
 
Other teams who are on chase but don't play today are:
NYI - going to game 3 of chase
CAL - going to game 2 of chase
NYR - going to game 2 of chase
CHI - going to game 2 of chase
DAL - starting new chase
OTT - starting new chase
BUF - starting new chase
 
Best of Luck as always!
 
 
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Posted: #102
Guys this is what I have today

Phil
New Jersey   O 5.5 on their second game, last one did not count because of the 5 total

Colorado
Florida   U 5.5   both these teams are not on the list for over

Carolina
Montreal   U 5.5 first chase because of OT
 
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Posted: #103
Nice to see you've won some  money with this Madden. But, you are right, the fluctuation in goals scored is not consistent with the way we have the system set up right now. This would be a good time to cash in the money won and observe now because the list of over teams might need adjusting. Then again, making changes is not a good sign when using a system but this usually comes up in any system that is being tried out. The key here is knowing when to jump off the train. BOL with your plays fellas.
 
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Posted: #104
We will take 6-3. The 2 unit plays went 1-1. Thanks for the updates guys!
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:



Phil
New Jersey   O 5.5 on their second game, last one did not count because of the 5 total




Why is that expert? I thought we were always gonna take the over when the total is 5. New Jersey was being chased since they went OVER against Buffalo on December 17th. You posted the pick and I think everyone followed on the over 5 against Ottawa the next game so I see no reason why this chase should be continued.
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

Overall record 36-2
December 19
Ottawa
New Jersey  5   Play over if 5 but it has nothing to do with the NHL spoiler

NY Islanders
Minnesota  O 5.5

LA
Buffalo   U 5.5

Chicago
Calgary  O 5.5

Top play

Chicago
Calgary   O 5.5

Good luck as always








December 19
Ottawa
New Jersey  5   Play over if 5 but it has nothing to do with the NHL spoiler
this has nothing to do with the NHL spoiler what i do is skip that game even though it has a chance going over and proceeding to the next game. Hope this did not confuse everything.
 
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Posted: #107

Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:



Why is that expert? I thought we were always gonna take the over when the total is 5. New Jersey was being chased since they went OVER against Buffalo on December 17th. You posted the pick and I think everyone followed on the over 5 against Ottawa the next game so I see no reason why this chase should be continued.

I would have not counted the over 5 as a system loss and stuck with NJ however since they won I am treating that chase as over since I profited off of it.  But I see Experts point - that we treat those over 5 games outside the system totally.

 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

December 19
Ottawa
New Jersey  5   Play over if 5 but it has nothing to do with the NHL spoiler
this has nothing to do with the NHL spoiler what i do is skip that game even though it has a chance going over and proceeding to the next game. Hope this did not confuse everything.


Ok, fair enough, I thought since the over 5 had been been hitting consistently, you might have added this play to the system strategy but lets see how the chase ends up doing.
 
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Posted: #109
Question??  What formula are you using to determine if a team is in a over/under category?  I see your list and looks fantastic.....But, does it need to be reevaluated periodically?
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:



Phil
New Jersey   O 5.5                

Colorado
Florida   U 5.5      

Carolina
Montreal            



Now 44 - 2 . But got a crazy feeling that the Devils are gonna burn the system because of the over 5 omission.  Let's hope I am wrong .
 
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Posted: #111

Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:




Now 44 - 2 . But got a crazy feeling that the Devils are gonna burn the system because of the over 5 omission.  Let's hope I am wrong .

We might need an asterisk if they burn the system.  Because I for one consider the devils going over 5 the other day as winning that chase since I had them as a chase play and didnt play them tonight. I will play them in their next game as a new chase since they went to OT tonight. I am assuming there will be a mix of people around here who went either way and chased/not chased NJ.

For tomorrow the only game I am seeing is:

PIT/BUF under 6 (first game of buffalo chase)

 
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Posted: #112
Expert: "Each one of these teams have 80 goals scored or gainst or they have a 20 difference in scoring or against I think this is a good strategy.

Teams we need to eliminate
NY Islanders 65 goals scored 80 allowed
Toronto  76 goals scored 88 goals allowed
Tampa Bay 56 goals scored 76 goals allowed
Atlanta     72 goals scored and 92 allowed
Dallas     68 goals scored and 87 allowed
Detroit     84 goals scored and 71 allowed
San Jose 97goals scored 59 allowed
Boston    82 goals scored 55 allowed
Washington 80 goals scored 80 allowed"

I was thinking doesn't it make more sense that a team with a large differential be more likely to go under than over? If a team scores a lot more goals than they give up for example the games would be more one sided and conducive to the under. Usually it takes two teams to be involved in scoring to hit the over.


 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by MaddenGuru:


I was thinking doesn't it make more sense that a team with a large differential be more likely to go under than over? If a team scores a lot more goals than they give up for example the games would be more one sided and conducive to the under. Usually it takes two teams to be involved in scoring to hit the over.




Here is some information that could put things in perspective.

Click  HERE  to see what I am taking about.

The highlighted cells are those where teams average more than 6 goals a game (taking into account goals scores and goals against. Of course, it is sketchy to say the least since its a basic average. But, still, notice how the list almost matched what I have in the picture.
 
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Posted: #114
Madden, I see 3 games tonight.
 
Pittsburgh / Buffalo (U6)  1st game of Buffalo chase
Anaheim / Vancouver (U 5 1/2)   1st game of Anaheim chase
Phoenis / Edmonton (U 5 1/2)  1st game of Edmonton chase
 
Anaheim and Edmonton went to O/T on the 19th.
 
Please let me know if this is correct.
 
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Posted: #115
NCTTC you are correct , but guys usually a 6 total means they are a high scoring team and the odds makers knows this is probably going to be 6 points. I don't like to go against they system but i think PITT AND BUFFALO IS GOING OVER because of the 6. Anybody have any thoughts? i think the score will be like 5 to 3 pitt.
 
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Posted: #116
I think PITT needs to be added for OVER
 
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Posted: #117
PIT and BUF on the over, high scoring OT kind of a game
 
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Posted: #118
I have decided that San Jose has been eliminated from the over with Pittsburgh being added

Teams we need to take the over
NY Islanders
Toronto 
Tampa Bay
Atlanta    
Dallas    
Detroit    
Boston   
Washington
Chicago          
St. Louis           
Philadelphia   
Pittsburgh

Any comments are appreciated
 
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Posted: #119
OK expert, you are the man, I am going with you. I like the new list of over teams Nice spreadsheet Eli!
 
Pittsburgh Buffalo (U6) - 1st game of Buffalo chase
Anaheim / Vancouver (U 5 1/2)) - 1st game of Anaheim chase
Phoenix / Edmonton (U 5 1/2) - 1st game of Edmonton chase
 
We have 8 games on Tuesday that we are chasing, including two (2nd games) and one (3rd and final game). Looking forward to a big Tuesday night!
 
 
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Posted: #120
Sorry,  meant for Pittsburgh / Buffalo to be OVER 6!
 
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Posted: #121
damn this system looks too good to be true.  Just parlayed the 3 plays for tonight (small bet) as it is my first time trailing the system and until I feel more confident I will keep it limited to small plays or parlays. 

thanks for all the effort guys  
 
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Posted: #122
I like the over tonight too, 7 goals in each of the three games they played each other this year...and both teams scoring like wild lately...and like I was saying sat I felt as if SJ needed to be removed...the under was a great bet in that game against NYR even though they had 5 goals after 2 periods.
 
My apologies for missing the other 2 games - good thing we are all on here checking each other!
 
Best of luck tonight!
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by I_won_the_money:

damn this system looks too good to be true.  Just parlayed the 3 plays for tonight (small bet) as it is my first time trailing the system and until I feel more confident I will keep it limited to small plays or parlays. 

thanks for all the effort guys  
IWTM,  I have had to lower my unit bet because of the amount of games sometimes played, (NOT TO MENTION 2ND AND 3RD GAMES OF CHASES). It has worked out well so far. Not sure a three game parlay is a great idea, but good luck!
 
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Posted: #124
NCTTC, I agree that a parlay isn't a shoe in with this system by any means because of the variables and the system seems to be geared toward coming out in the green every night (4-2) (3-1) which would obviously not do anything for parlays.  I'll give it a shot anyways tonight, but I will also continue to watch and slowly ease my way into making straight plays.  Thanks again and BOL with your plays. 


 
 
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Posted: #125
Guys play these plays tonight you will go 2-1
Pittsburgh at Buffalo      O 6
Phoenix at Edmonton    U 5.5
Anaheim at Vancouver   U 5.5
Guys I am betting tonight, I really like these games this will be my first bet this year so wish everybody good luck!!!!!!!!!!!

Eli thanks for that information on the total points average per game thats what made me decide that Pittsburgh belongs in the over teams.
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