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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    NHL 2011 Consensus Dogs

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    jonnymega
    glefkb01
    BBQGreggy
    jtmoney87
    JoshLewis
    ...
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    Views: 8477
    Posts: 116
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    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posts: 833
    Posted: Oct. 6, 2011 - 12:24 PM ET #1


    Hello and Happy Hockey Season!





    Simply put, this system fades the consensus while picking the dogs with the better value.

    Though there are some who do quite well laying the chalk, I've always found that playing the dogs and going against the public opinion was the better strategy when gaming the NHL. With that in mind, I offer to chart this method over the course of the season with this thread.

    For tracking purposes, each play will be for one unit which will be 2% of the bankroll. So, with 3-5 plays per day, there should never be more than 10% risked at a time. Further, as the bank increases or decreases, the unit size adjusts accordingly.

    I'm fully confident that, by using this process of money management along with some basic handicapping and a little luck, this thread will see positive results.

    Thanks and GL to all this season!




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    Hello and Happy Hockey Season!





    Simply put, this system fades the consensus while picking the dogs with the better value.

    Though there are some who do quite well laying the chalk, I've always found that playing the dogs and going against the public opinion was the better strategy when gaming the NHL. With that in mind, I offer to chart this method over the course of the season with this thread.

    For tracking purposes, each play will be for one unit which will be 2% of the bankroll. So, with 3-5 plays per day, there should never be more than 10% risked at a time. Further, as the bank increases or decreases, the unit size adjusts accordingly.

    I'm fully confident that, by using this process of money management along with some basic handicapping and a little luck, this thread will see positive results.

    Thanks and GL to all this season!




     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2011 - 12:27 PM ET #2

    10/06/11


    Bank $1000.00
    Unit   $20.00


    Today's plays:


    PIT +138
    PHI +122



    BOLTA 


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    10/06/11


    Bank $1000.00
    Unit   $20.00


    Today's plays:


    PIT +138
    PHI +122



    BOLTA 


     
    glefkb01
    glefkb01
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    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 2554
    Posted: Oct. 6, 2011 - 2:02 PM ET #3

    Waiting for any NHL method.... had a great MLB season thanks to similar systems. GL!
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    Waiting for any NHL method.... had a great MLB season thanks to similar systems. GL!
     
    glefkb01
    glefkb01
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2011 - 2:02 PM ET #4

    Waiting for any NHL method.... had a great MLB season thanks to similar systems. GL!
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    Waiting for any NHL method.... had a great MLB season thanks to similar systems. GL!
     
    BBQGreggy
    BBQGreggy
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2011 - 2:38 PM ET #5

    Good Luck Johnny, I'm on both of them with ya!  Lets have a great hockey season!

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    Good Luck Johnny, I'm on both of them with ya!  Lets have a great hockey season!

     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 7, 2011 - 9:30 AM ET #6

    Thanks for following guys!




    Should be an awesome year!

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    Thanks for following guys!




    Should be an awesome year!

     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 7, 2011 - 9:31 AM ET #7

    10/07/11



    Yesterday:

    PIT +138  WIN
    PHI +122  WIN

    Record  2-0
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1052.00
    Current Unit    $21.04



    Today's plays:


    ANA +115
    OTT +193

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    10/07/11



    Yesterday:

    PIT +138  WIN
    PHI +122  WIN

    Record  2-0
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1052.00
    Current Unit    $21.04



    Today's plays:


    ANA +115
    OTT +193

     
    jtmoney87
    jtmoney87
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    Posts: 640
    Posted: Oct. 7, 2011 - 11:48 AM ET #8

    Like this good luck bud!!!
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    Like this good luck bud!!!
     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 7, 2011 - 12:22 PM ET #9

    Thanks bro.

    For those following, here's a spreadsheet that will be recording all plays in detail. Also, I put together a twitter for this system at twitter/jonnymegaNHL11 if anyone wants to follow that.


     
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    Thanks bro.

    For those following, here's a spreadsheet that will be recording all plays in detail. Also, I put together a twitter for this system at twitter/jonnymegaNHL11 if anyone wants to follow that.


     
     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 8, 2011 - 8:49 AM ET #10

    10/08/11


    Yesterday:

    ANA +115  LOSS
    OTT +193  LOSS

    Record  2-2
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1009.92
    Current Unit    $20.20



    Today's plays:


    DAL +167
    CLB +132
    FLA +113



    book

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    10/08/11


    Yesterday:

    ANA +115  LOSS
    OTT +193  LOSS

    Record  2-2
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1009.92
    Current Unit    $20.20



    Today's plays:


    DAL +167
    CLB +132
    FLA +113



    book

     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 9, 2011 - 11:04 AM ET #11

    10/09/11


    Yesterday:

    DAL +167  LOSS
    CLB +132 
    LOSS
    FLA +113
      WIN

    Record  3-4
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $992.35
    Current Unit    $19.85



    Today's plays:


    MTL +105




    book
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    10/09/11


    Yesterday:

    DAL +167  LOSS
    CLB +132 
    LOSS
    FLA +113
      WIN

    Record  3-4
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $992.35
    Current Unit    $19.85



    Today's plays:


    MTL +105




    book
     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2011 - 9:16 AM ET #12

    10/10/11


    Yesterday:

    MTL +105  WIN

    Record  4-4
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1013.19
    Current Unit    $20.26



    Today's plays:


    CGY +123
    PHO +121
    TB +148


    book

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    10/10/11


    Yesterday:

    MTL +105  WIN

    Record  4-4
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1013.19
    Current Unit    $20.26



    Today's plays:


    CGY +123
    PHO +121
    TB +148


    book

     
    JoshLewis
    JoshLewis
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2011 - 8:53 PM ET #13

    amigo, i strongly suggest to make a backtesting. how was last season? you can backtest by covers/wagerline.
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    amigo, i strongly suggest to make a backtesting. how was last season? you can backtest by covers/wagerline.
     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2011 - 9:09 AM ET #14

    Thanks, Josh. Backtesting is difficult because these are not blind picks. Originally, I had considered just fading the top 3 consensus picks and playing those blind everyday. Instead, I've been looking for the dogs with the best value and best chance of winning. It's probably not to late to switch over to blind picks... I surmise the outcome will probably be about the same either way ...


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    Thanks, Josh. Backtesting is difficult because these are not blind picks. Originally, I had considered just fading the top 3 consensus picks and playing those blind everyday. Instead, I've been looking for the dogs with the best value and best chance of winning. It's probably not to late to switch over to blind picks... I surmise the outcome will probably be about the same either way ...


     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2011 - 12:42 PM ET #15

    10/11/11


    Yesterday:


    CGY +123  LOSS
    PHO +121  LOSS
    TB +148  LOSS

    Record  4-7
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $952.41
    Current Unit    $19.05



    Today's plays:


    No plays


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    10/11/11


    Yesterday:


    CGY +123  LOSS
    PHO +121  LOSS
    TB +148  LOSS

    Record  4-7
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $952.41
    Current Unit    $19.05



    Today's plays:


    No plays


     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 10:03 AM ET #16

    10/12/11


    Yesterday:

    No plays

    Record  4-7
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $952.41
    Current Unit    $19.05



    Today's plays:


    COL +125


    book
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    10/12/11


    Yesterday:

    No plays

    Record  4-7
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $952.41
    Current Unit    $19.05



    Today's plays:


    COL +125


    book
     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 1:40 PM ET #17

    10/13/11


    Yesterday:

    COL +125  WINNER

    Record  4-7
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $952.41
    Current Unit    $19.05



    Today's plays:


    CGY +116
    PHO +124
    WIN +174


    book
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    10/13/11


    Yesterday:

    COL +125  WINNER

    Record  4-7
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $952.41
    Current Unit    $19.05



    Today's plays:


    CGY +116
    PHO +124
    WIN +174


    book
     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 1:42 PM ET #18

    Here's the updated record to go with the post above - my bad:


    Record  5-7
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $976.22
    Current Unit    $19.52



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    Here's the updated record to go with the post above - my bad:


    Record  5-7
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $976.22
    Current Unit    $19.52



     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 10:08 AM ET #19

    10/14/11


    Yesterday:

    CGY +116  WIN
    PHO +124 
    WIN
    WIN +174
       LOSS

    Record  7-8
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1003.39
    Current Unit    $20.07



    Today's plays:


    CAR +165



    book

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    10/14/11


    Yesterday:

    CGY +116  WIN
    PHO +124 
    WIN
    WIN +174
       LOSS

    Record  7-8
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1003.39
    Current Unit    $20.07



    Today's plays:


    CAR +165



    book

     
    georugby
    georugby
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    Posts: 2210
    Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 11:32 AM ET #20

    Early observation:

    Weestern conference:

    Overall - 3-8

    Range (+100 @ +150): 3-4

    Range over +150: 0-1

     

    Eastern Conference:

    4-3 overall

    Range (+100 @ +150): 4-1

    Range over +150: 0-2

    Kinda interesting!

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    Early observation:

    Weestern conference:

    Overall - 3-8

    Range (+100 @ +150): 3-4

    Range over +150: 0-1

     

    Eastern Conference:

    4-3 overall

    Range (+100 @ +150): 4-1

    Range over +150: 0-2

    Kinda interesting!

     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 11:41 AM ET #21

    nice perspective, georugby! cool
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    nice perspective, georugby! cool
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 11:17 PM ET #22

    What consensus are you fading ?  Covers consensus ?  Fading money line movement ?
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    What consensus are you fading ?  Covers consensus ?  Fading money line movement ?
     
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2011 - 11:27 AM ET #23

    Hi Lippsman. I always check out your daily NHL thread. Thanks for that.




    Yes, these plays fade the covers consensus. I basically pick and choose from there. The theory behind this is that the plays with the highest discrepancy in consensus will offer the highest value dogs (because everyone's hammering the favorite).




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    Hi Lippsman. I always check out your daily NHL thread. Thanks for that.




    Yes, these plays fade the covers consensus. I basically pick and choose from there. The theory behind this is that the plays with the highest discrepancy in consensus will offer the highest value dogs (because everyone's hammering the favorite).




     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2011 - 11:30 AM ET #24

    10/15/11


    Yesterday:

    CAR +165  WIN


    Record  8-8
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1036.51
    Current Unit    $20.73



    Today's plays:


    BOS +124
    EDM +138
    LAK +125
    MIN +125



    book

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    10/15/11


    Yesterday:

    CAR +165  WIN


    Record  8-8
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1036.51
    Current Unit    $20.73



    Today's plays:


    BOS +124
    EDM +138
    LAK +125
    MIN +125



    book

     
     
    jonnymega
    jonnymega
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2008
    Posts: 833
    Posted: Oct. 16, 2011 - 8:53 AM ET #25

    10/16/11


    Yesterday:


    BOS +124  WIN
    EDM +138  LOSS
    LAK +125  WIN
    MIN +125
      LOSS


    Record  10-10
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1047.41
    Current Unit    $20.95



    Today's plays:


    No plays


    book

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    10/16/11


    Yesterday:


    BOS +124  WIN
    EDM +138  LOSS
    LAK +125  WIN
    MIN +125
      LOSS


    Record  10-10
    Starting Bank $1000.00
    Current Bank  $1047.41
    Current Unit    $20.95



    Today's plays:


    No plays


    book

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