NFL 1Q Chase

Question

Hello, all. I did a limited backtest of this concept earlier in the year and it looked like it would be profitable. I'll be playing it this year with a small unit size and will track it here.

The gist:

1.) Chase the five best NFL teams on the first quarter ML at home for three games.

And

2.) Fade the five worst NFL teams on the first quarter ML on the road for a three game chase.

Pushes count as no plays.

For the pre-season we'll use a 2 game chase. If a game pushes on the A game, we cancel the series.

Here are the teams:

CHASE: Broncos, Seahawks, 49ers, Patriots, and Packers

FADE: Jaguars, Raiders, Browns, Vikings, Bills

I reserve the right to change these teams throughout the season if someone is really over/ underperforming, though I'll try not to.

Also, I'll be using labby lines instead of a straight-up chase. I'll list the amount bet/ amount to win for each of the plays to track the unit count.

First play is tomorrow.

TheBeefMan · Answer

Hello, all. I did a limited backtest of this concept earlier in the year and it looked like it would be profitable. I'll be playing it this year with a small unit size and will track it here.

The gist:

1.) Chase the five best NFL teams on the first quarter ML at home for three games.

And

2.) Fade the five worst NFL teams on the first quarter ML on the road for a three game chase.

Pushes count as no plays.

For the pre-season we'll use a 2 game chase. If a game pushes on the A game, we cancel the series.

Here are the teams:

CHASE: Broncos, Seahawks, 49ers, Patriots, and Packers

FADE: Jaguars, Raiders, Browns, Vikings, Bills

I reserve the right to change these teams throughout the season if someone is really over/ underperforming, though I'll try not to.

Also, I'll be using labby lines instead of a straight-up chase. I'll list the amount bet/ amount to win for each of the plays to track the unit count.

First play is tomorrow.

TheBeefMan · Answer

TodayA Broncos (to win 1)YTD Chase Record: 0-0Unit Count: &#x2B;0.00

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

i&#x27;m not able to bet quarters.. what do you think about 1st half?

Bart_ · Answer

Are those the teams you would have used last year too?

TheBeefMan · Answer

I haven&#x27;t looked at the numbers so I can&#x27;t say. The juice is normally higher for halves.

TheBeefMan · Answer

I used Pinnacle&#x27;s over/ under win projections to select the teams. No personal judgement involved, though I&#x27;ll probably have to use some if someone really shits the bed this year.

Bart_ · Answer

once MLB is done (aug 15th)...i can help you backtest. Maybe check the 4 teams that made it to the conf championship games, or the 4 teams that ended up with 1st and 2nd seeds. I&#x27;ll play around with it.

TheBeefMan · Answer

That would be awesome. I believe I used preseason power rankings for the backtest. From what I can recall there were about 40 plays and 1-2 losses each year.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

ah, okay, thanks.which site did you use for the rankings? i&#x27;m probably going to take a look at some backtesting (comparing 1st Q &amp; 1st H) and changing where team picks come from (based on records, etc.).

TheBeefMan · Answer

Sweet. I used ESPN preseason power ranking for my backtest and Pinnacle to get this years top 5/ bottom 5.

TheBeefMan · Answer

TodayA Bills fade (to win 1)A Raiders fade (to win 1)YTD Chase Record: 1-0Unit Count: &#x2B;1.00A. 1-0

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

okay, so here&#x27;s what i did. instead of looking at preseason rankings, i looked at the teams that had the best home record the year before. you could also take the best record for the last 2, 3, 5 years, etc. but since you&#x27;re chasing home teams, why not chase the teams who are best at home? taking the record through multiple years might get rid of some teams you know aren&#x27;t a good idea.so i have numbers for quarters and halves. i&#x27;ll post numbers for only regular season now, but i also have preseason &#x2B; regular season (if you were to continue chases from the preseason) if you want them. i didn&#x27;t do anything with units, just how many games won - lost - pushed on each letter game (going A through F). when a game pushed on A, the chase started over. when a game pushed on a different letter game, it was marked as such and the next game was the same letter.i also have numbers for if you made the last week for beginning chases, week 13. this cleans up everything but 1 chase. that chase is the packers (halves) in 2013. i normally would never change anything due to hindsight, but with aaron rodgers getting hurt, i obviously would have immediately removed them from the system, so i cut that chase off at week 9. it only affected halves though, and that could easily been absorbed into another chase or ignored completely, as it was an A game loss.so i&#x27;ll start with the total numbers, with no cut off - there are benefits to cutting it off at week 13, but you also lose some A/B game wins.i was going to c/p my chart from google drive, but it&#x27;s not formatting correctly, so i&#x27;ll just type it up.Teams:2013: SEA, DEN, GB, MIN, IND2012: GB, BAL, NO, SF, NE2011: NE, KC, ATL, GB, BAL2010: NE, MIN, IND, PIT, CINQuarters:2013  A: 16-6-3  B: 3-3-1  C: 2-1  D: 1-02012  A: 9-12-3  B: 7-2-4  C: 3-0 2011  A: 21-5-5  B: 1-4     C: 3-0-12010  A: 16-5-4  B: 1-3-4  C: 1-2  D: 1-1  E: 0-1  F: 1-0 (Fthat would be a total of:A: 62-28-15  B: 12-12-9  C: 9-3-1  D: 2-1  E: 0-1 A: 68.89% A/B: 82% A/B/C: 92%Halves:2013  A: 15-8-3  B: 4-3  C: 1-1  D: 1-02012  A: 19-8-2  B: 6-2  C: 1-1  D: 1-02011  A: 26-4-2&#x9; B: 3-2  C: 0-1  D: 0-1  E: 1-02010  A: 14-10-2  B: 7-3-1  C: 1-1  D: 1-1A: 74-30-9  B: 20-10-1  C: 3-4  D: 3-2  E: 1-0A: 71.15%A/B: 90.3%A/B/C: 93.3%in 2010, the teams that went to D games in quarters were PIT &amp; CIN. PIT went all the way to F. in 2013 it was MIN going to D game.in halves, 2011&#x27;s E game is KC.i hope this isn&#x27;t an intrusion on your system. if people have other parameters they want backtested, i can do that too.in the next post i&#x27;ll put up the info for cutting it off at Week 13.might be a couple hours before i get it up though. i hope i didn&#x27;t forget to include something.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

info for cut off at week 13:2013:  A: 12-5-2  B: 2-3-1  C: 2-1  D: 1-02012:  A: 9-8-2    B: 5-3-4  C: 2-02011:  A: 14-4-4  B: 1-3     C: 3-0-12010:  A: 13-4-3  B: 1-3-4  C: 1-2  D: 1-1  E: 0-1  F: 1-0A: 69.57%A/B: 82.61%A/B/C: 94.2%Halves:2013:  A: 10-7-2  B: 4-2  C: 1-1  D: 1-02012:  A: 14-6-1  B: 4-2  C: 1-1  D: 1-02011:  A: 20-7-2  B: 5-2  C: 0-2  D: 2-02010:  A: 13-8-2  B: 6-2-1  C: 1-1  D: 1-0A: 67%A/B: 89.41%A/B/C: 92.94%

TheBeefMan · Answer

Thanks for the input, Ordinaryday6. Those numbers look similar to what I came up with.  It doesn&#x27;t look like halves offer a much greater benefit than quarters, but could be a good option if your book doesn&#x27;t offer quarters. I use 5dimes; they usually put the first quarter odds out a few hours before kickoff.

TheBeefMan · Answer

TodayA Browns fade (to win 1.48)YTD Chase Record: 2-0Unit Count: &#x2B;1.05A. 2-1B. 0-0C. 0-0

TheBeefMan · Answer

To be clear, I treat a push as if it never happened. For example, the last game (Cleveland fade) was tied at the end of the first quarter - so the A game record should be 2-1-1. I'm not going to keep track of the pushes though; we simply play the next game as if nothing happened.

Today

A Jaguars fade (to win 1.48)

YTD Chase Record: 2-0
Unit Count: +1.05

A. 2-1
B. 0-0
C. 0-0

TheBeefMan · Answer

Slight problem.  I missed yesterday&#x27;s bet, so I don&#x27;t have the odds. Does anyone know what they were? The ML for the game was -150, so I&#x27;ll assume it was about -110 for now. TodayA Patriots (to win 1.48)A Seahawks (to win 1.48)YTD Chase Record: 2-0Unit Count: -.05A. 2-2B. 0-0C. 0-0

TheBeefMan · Answer

TodayB Bills fade (to win 1)YTD Chase Record: 4-0Unit Count: &#x2B;2.91A. 4-2B. 0-0C. 0-0

Bart_ · Answer

CHI -0.5 -105

TheBeefMan · Answer

Thank you, Bart. I&#x27;ll adjust on the next update.

TheBeefMan · Answer

Today49ers (to win 1)YTD Chase Record: 5-0Unit Count: &#x2B;3.46A. 4-2B. 1-0C. 0-0

TheBeefMan · Answer

Today No playsYTD Chase Record: 5-0Unit Count: &#x2B;2.06A. 4-3B. 1-0C. 0-0

TheBeefMan · Answer

Today B Jaguars fade (to win 1.7)A Packers (to win 1.7)YTD Chase Record: 5-0Unit Count: &#x2B;2.06A. 4-3B. 1-0C. 0-0

TheBeefMan · Answer

TodayA Vikings fade (to win 1.7)YTD Chase Record: 7-0Unit Count: &#x2B;5.46A. 5-3B. 2-0C. 0-0

TheBeefMan · Answer

TodayB 49ers (to win 2.36)YTD Chase Record: 7-0Unit Count: &#x2B;2.74A. 5-4B. 2-0C. 0-0

NFL 1Q Chase

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