NFL 09' strategic wagering...

Bill, Great week with all of your selections! I personally would greatly appreciate any insight into your handicapping methodolgy.  I also hope Sport_Network let's us in on his game plans.  He seems to be sharp on many fronts.  His tail is getting very long - probably moved that Baltimore line. 

yes, I am a firm believer in gaining advantage through the option of purchasing additional points to the maximum. with no respect to value loss, this is the NFL, winning is at a premium, and wagers are provided to fit the situation at hand.. The pointspread is designed for dog play, not for favorites, as most in-experienced cappers find out after a season doing the NFL, the 4 team / 13pt play is extremely strategic, once a capper understands it's value, and the formula of application... (don't judge a book by it's cover)

keep in mind, aprx 80% of all teasers "lose" the 20% that win, are by 10% of advanced, or proffessional handicappers, that win 90% of the time... your corect, of the 8 games, only 3 had an effect, but how is any capper to know the out come in advance? is the rational answer to your question; it only takes "one" game to lose.

iniciating the Matchup_Performance formula, and attaching it to purchased points is a key to successful NFL strategy...

best regards

SN

Does that mean that you watch the games and decide who you are going to bet on?  (I know that is drastically oversimplified).  To put it another way, do you use any statistics? math?  or do you rely on game film 100%?  Where do you get "game film" to watch for your analysis?  How much time do you spend analyzing film each week?

Handicapping a team to win can be done consistently, cappin' a team to win by covering the spread is inconsistent.attached to the highest risk wager the NFL has to offer..the dog is the the true NFL capp to be successful; the ML dog is the master NFL capp.These are the plays that have to be constructed to gain BR strength; and unit wagering concepts..

SN

Well said.  For what it's worth, ML dogs went 8-7 yesterday. 

I'm going to have to go back over my old records, because my main focus in the NFL has been on ATS plays. 

i spend aprx 60hrs in a 5 day span reviewing film purchased from media outlets, and NFL-Films I  basically view the same strategic film as offensive/defensive cordinators  set their came plans. Also NBC  CBS  ABC  ESPN plus all games live ect...I've converted to more film use based on the technology that has made it available over the past 4 years to handicappers who are not involved in NFL coaching..thru NFL-Films, thats the film you want to view...

SN

8-7 that's an early bark, worth quite a bit....

PD,

The first and most important thing IMO is making a line yourself.  I rank my teams every week, which gives me a starting point (a game line) for each game.

I have values for each team based on total wins for the season. I try to predict their season total wins and then set a value.....Never go against your numbers...

Remember, good handicappers bet primarily underdogs or small favorites!!!!  Very important.....Find the dogs that can win.....If they are losing, they will continue to try to score (backdoor cover).  There is nothing worse than betting a medium or large favorite and they are winning, but not covering and they run, run, run, kneel to end the game. 

Next is where the "human element" comes into play...I look for several situations that may "over-value" a favorite. (public, blow-out win the prior week, etc)...Never base what you you just saw the prior week...It's the long haul to look at (Saints are 2-0, are they really that good? Tennessee is 0-2 are they that bad?)

1. Find value by doing your own rankings.
2. Underdogs, small favorites ONLY
3. Human Element - Trends (only with the current players and coach), let-downs, look ahead, east coast to west, etc...

Perfect example...Tonight the Over is 5 - 1 when Indy vs Miami.....

All six games where played before either head coach where with their respective teams....2006 was the last time these two teams played each other....

Under 42 

Surf Man,

I only use 6 point teasers when I like a favorite of -2, -2.5 or 7.5, 8, 8.5........dogs when similar situation 1.5, 2, 8, 9....

These give you the ability to cross two key numbers....
-2 = +4 ...went from a fav crossing PK and 3
-8 = -2 ...went from more than a TD to less than a field goal...

I like what SN is doing, but I do not have the ability to do 13pt teasers....

I agree with his picks as long as they cross over several key numbers!!!!!!!!!!  (IMO, you still have to be on the right side...ex 13pt tease with Green Bay was a loser!!!)

I couldn't agree more to just watching football!!!  As for the Wide and Tight (coaches versions)s film, they are great, but you must know what you are looking for!!!

SN, you are doing a great job!  Keep up the good work.......

Nice job so far SN.

[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network] [Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]

NFL 09' strategic wagering / Matchup_Performance formula...

[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network] [Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network] NFL 09' strategic wagering / Matchup_Performance formula...

looks like another solid week, the huge wagers killed you but you still came out on top....will be following this closely to see what week 3 looks like...

THX, week three will have a different format, based on adjustments

SN

 

 

hope it still inlcudes a 4 team teaser

Great Job SN !! Thank you for posting !!

Is the strategy that you are utilizing this season an initial attempt? Or is this a continuation of a developed strategy from previous seasons?

Great work thus far, and thanks for your frequent posting and responses to all.