NFL 09' strategic wagering...

Special Teams.  Denver has 'em.  San Diego doesn't. 

 

I'm a little shocked at the hoops you guys will go to in order to defend the indefensible.  Let me ask you something.  Do you guys play cards?  The dealer is supposed to shuffle and then somebody else is supposed to cut.  What would you think if some guy said that he didn't need to shuffle and nobody else needed to cut?  You explain nicely and politely that you are not accusing him of cheating but that you can never trust him if he doesn't take this simple precaution.  He still refuses to do it.  And he takes 20 times longer arguing for why he shouldn't bother shuffling then it would take to just shuffle the damn cards.

What do you think?

Do you really assume that there is a good reason for this?

The whole number thing....Cmon!! There is no reason why bets can't be in fractions.  Regardless, he never actually said that.

 

As for the 38 unit bet, Don't you think that would be really obvious?  If he claimed that he had won 38 units, that would have meant that he bet 144 units. 

Another one of his critics complaints is that he has never defined what a "unit" is.  The standard definition is 1% of your bankroll, which would make a 144 unit bet physically impossible.  By whatever definition you use, nobody would ever believe it if he said that he bet 144 units after the fact.

I really can not believe that anybody actually takes this guy and his "releases" at all seriously anymore.  Are you all his frat brothers?  Is he just posting under 5 or 6 different names? 

There is absolutely no legitimate reason for this intentional obfuscation.  If somebody was serious about "documentation" they wouldn't dodge simple and obvious questions whose only purpose is to prevent fraud. 

 

 

 

I am not one of his defenders at all man. I'm far from that.

If you go back to post #199, I wrote exactly what you just stated. I was the first critic of Sport Network's units. Please go read my post in #199.

I don't post to back up other people, be a defender of a certain poster either. I will post and defend someone though when a) I think they are wrongly being accused of something b) I see a serious flaw in something c) or I have a thought.

I only backed up SN the last few times I posted because I truly do believe that he hasn't falsely documented anything.

Do I think it's shady, and do I think he could post "to win" or "to risk" next to the units? Hell yeah. I mean he has his reasons why or why he doesn't, whatever they are, there are many opinions for this but so be it. Once you sort though all the muck, and think logically, you really can understand if they are "to win" or "risked".

My problem this whole entire time isn't about the units that are actually documented, but how they relate to the bankroll! I can give two cents how many units are won, lost, not recorded, lost but considered won, whatever the heck anyone seems to gripe about on here, but in the end how they relate to one's bankroll!!

One can't possibly say that doesn't matter, cause it is essentially everything in betting.

So yeah Tallyguy, I agree with you on the majority of your argument.

San Diego.  el crapo

If somebody knows the answer, please advise.  If X = the mortgage payment and Y = the bar tab; and if you wager X on San Diego to beat Denver what does that make you?  You had the mortgage payment before you placed the wager.  You placed the wager hoping to be able to pay the mortgage payment AND the bar tab.  But when the Charges lose, you don't have any money to pay the mortgage or the bar tab.  Degenerate?  Loser?  What do you call it? 

Is this supposed to mean something..?

Cuz it makes absolute zero sense..

The loss tonight is -8 Units, making the final results for Week 6 a failure, at -5.7 Units.

This leaves the Total Units for NFL '09 now at +32.8 Units.


As nice as it would be to come out way on top every week, the battle is over the long haul of the season, to finish way above the line. Week 6 had some surprises, as expected, and everyone had a tough week. This thread still remains above the line for the season tho. So what gives? What's your point? A pointless attempt to be Mr. Funny?

The losers and haters are expected to come out in droves after any kind of loss whatsoever, however insignificant it may be.

At the very least they could show some class like tallguyindc.

From a pure fan of the game's perspective, I'm pretty crushed right now after my Dodgers loss.. if you said something like that to me in person, I'd knock your teeth right down your throat you smug son of a bitch.

I've tried to be helpful here when I can be, and I've been answering questions through PM as best I can for those people who have PM'ed me.

There's trying to get answers to something.. then there's just plain being an asshole. Crawl in a hole and die you goddamn maggot.

"Let me ask you something.  Do you guys play cards?  The dealer is supposed to shuffle and then somebody else is supposed to cut.  What would you think if some guy said that he didn't need to shuffle and nobody else needed to cut?  You explain nicely and politely that you are not accusing him of cheating but that you can never trust him if he doesn't take this simple precaution.  He still refuses to do it.  And he takes 20 times longer arguing for why he shouldn't bother shuffling then it would take to just shuffle the damn cards.

What do you think?"

I'll try to answer all of this..

Yes, I play cards. I am a rather well known poker player around my parts, and a very good one at that. My 2 roommates are Professionals, it's how they make their living. We have a home game from time to time, and sometimes we use a cut card, and sometimes we don't. If it is just our regular group, then we just shuffle and deal to save time. The reason is because we all trust each other. We all have a common understanding and knowledge of how our game works, and no one ever gets out of line. Everyone knows, if someone were to get out of line, they wouldn't leave the house without the help of an ambulance.

This is how it works here in the threads. There is a common group of peers who have been around SN's threads since he began posting. We have come to understand his style and how he posts his entries. Those who have shown respect to his thread (his house, so to speak) have been welcomed into the group. They contribute effectively, and all is well.
When a new person comes in, they are welcomed to communicate and contribute if they can demonstrate an understanding. Unfortunately, most new people make their entrance known by mouthing off with some idiotic comment, or asking a question which has all ready been addressed (no poster should start making posts & asking questions before reading the entire thread, ever!). Therefore, when a semi-decent human being enters the door, we all assume it is just another maggot, since the bridge has been burned so many times before by idiots.
It is the new people only who are asked "to cut the deck" so to speak. and when they show they can't, they are asked to leave.. sometimes not so politely (disrespect, and prepare to be disrespected).
My analogy might not be funny, or witty, but hopefully you see my point. It's intended to make a point, something the previous poster above clearly doesn't have a clue on how to do..

"The whole number thing....Cmon!! There is no reason why bets can't be in fractions.  Regardless, he never actually said that."

Well of course there is no reason why bets can't be fractions. The point was to show that none of his bets are ever involving fractions unless otherwise specified, like in the teasers. All of the single game bets work out to be a whole number. A whole number bet to win a whole number. If I am mistaken on this, please post an example, as I may have missed one along the way.. but I don't think so. The bottom line is this - by looking at the odds for the game you can directly relate that to the number of Units either risked or to be won. A -380 ML with a number of 38 beside it clearly means risk 38 to win 10. Maybe some people (not you directly) just can't look at a couple of numbers and see an obvious form. The math is always easy to calculate. People try to complicate it.
Again, the regulars know how to read that line. You may think SN is a little too hasty to dismiss the "newbies" asking a question on the line, but his "childish" remarks in return are pretty much always due to the person who asked the question, did so in a snotty way.. much like a "child" would ask a question with a backhanded slap. those very few who do ask nicely often get lost in the sea of idiots and are considered by "default" in with them.. unfair, yes, but that is how the real world operates as well, as I'm sure you would agree.


"I really can not believe that anybody actually takes this guy and his "releases" at all seriously anymore.  Are you all his frat brothers?  Is he just posting under 5 or 6 different names? "

I don't really understand how you can say this.. SN has consistently produced winners throughout an entire MLB season, and now into 6 weeks of NFL action. If you go through his MLB thread, you will find numerous posts by himself stating his documentation is not intended for his own personal Money Management issues. His documentation is to use the applied theories to handicapping winners at a successful percentage. Everyone has a different bankroll and should use their own Money Management which they develop on their own. He has never stated that he intends to "teach" MM. People will have to go elsewhere for that. Develop your own MM and apply it to the picks he selects. Am I missing something? If he posted the percentage of his bankroll he was risking on each play, would this help people? I would hope not, unless the 2 bankrolls were even in dollar amounts. By listing the Units risked for each play, that alone should be enough to inform a person on the strength of a play..?


"There is absolutely no legitimate reason for this intentional obfuscation.  If somebody was serious about "documentation" they wouldn't dodge simple and obvious questions whose only purpose is to prevent fraud. "


Again, this is a point which has no relevance to his purpose. As said above, the documentation of his threads are strictly for the purpose of applying certain formulas to develop a successful edge in picking "winners". He has said numerous times it is not his intent to teach money management. His bankroll is his own, and just that. Managing your own bankroll is independent of all this, and everyone should learn how to do it on their own.

The "System & Strategies" Forum can be used for many things. SN was using the strategy of an applied formula for his MLB thread. He is using the strategy of Match-up Performance through film in his NFL thread, here. A separate thread all together could be started for SN's applied Money Management System.. but it has clearly been stated this isn't the intention of either of his threads..

However, I see on Page 19 here (post #451), that SN has shown an interest in opening the floor for a Money Management discussion. Yet there was never a reply from 3put.
People shouldn't ask for something, receive it, and then ignore it.

This is exactly why all of the ignorant posters are treated as such..


I hope this has answered your concerns a little better than before. I'm guessing there will be some copying and pasting of my quotes now and attempts made to show how "vague" or "wrong" they are.
And I will probably make yet another attempt to get through some thick skulls.. it's just in my nature to try and help someone when they show they are worth helping. Maybe I'll just disappear from this forum and go to one where this sort of behavior is rare. Yes.. they do exist!


Cheers 

tallguyindc,

No.. I don't hate you. Was serious in my writing, and not intending to offend you personally. Just trying to make things clearer for people. I really don't see exactly what the problem is here with this thread.

Is it just the fact that he doesn't list what the % of his bankroll is being invested on each play? Please tell me that isn't the problem here..

Twice now I've asked for an example of something someone else has said is wrong, and received no reply..

I will read anything that you care to post, or anyone else for that matter, as long as it is sensible.. unlike previous posts like abracadaver, jeffkent, and this most recent one from gmsi

Btw, I don't play SN's selections.. never have, not even once. But his MLB thread was a proven success. And for anyone with a clue, you knew pretty much exactly how many units he was playing on each play. It was stated and repeated numerous times throughout the thread. I know, that would require someone to read through the entire gazillion pages right? Like who has the time for that.. as if

Cheers 

This was posted 3 days ago, to no avail, or response for discussion. which identifies you as a pure hypocrite, with no foundation of discussion, but trolls want attention, and more attention, they thrive, and thirst on controversey, they have imaginations that connect their keyboards to whims, and fairytales, they are screen names, nothing more,  they independently represent theirselves, they never mention the Matchup_performance or film, they talk mm and then shy away, when confronted, but continue to discuss a release sheet which they clearly have no understanding, or comprehension as to it's contents...please excuse my reluctance to pacify ignorance, or address questions that do not qualify an answer.....

Excuse me?? You may be the saddest individual I have encountered on here yet.. truly without a clue.

My "ROLE" on here is exactly that of anyone else.. a member of a free forum entitled to my own opinion on whatever topics are presented. I have tried to be diplomatic in my dealings with others, and have never insulted anyone without being insulted first. At least I try to help explain things, which is what you claim to hate about sports_Network lack thereof.

Everyone always says "We are all here to help each other make money" but I really don't think that is the case with about half the people on here. Half try to help each other, and the other half only stick their heads out when it's time to jump on a bandwagon on 'hate messages'.


Stick to my thread?? What is that supposed to mean?? Maybe you should stick to talking to people on your friend list.. oh wait, 2 of your 4 friends are SN, and myself.. why is that?

Not once have I ever claimed to be a "Professional Handicapper". Where did THAT come from?? You've posted in my thread twice and never had anything negative to say, even discussed your wager on the Tigers to win the World Series.
The majority of users on here wager small units, there aren't too many who are running unit sizes of $1000. For someone trying to get started in this World, I will happily stick to my "$50 unit plays", thanks.

And anyone who follows along blindly deserves to lose their shirt. There is no easy way out in this world even tho people constantly search for one. I'm interested in seeing how this thread will turn out to be a "scam".. everything is very plainly laid out for everyone to see. You guys are trying to create a double standard for something which isn't there.

Internet tough guy?!? Look at the pot calling the kettle black. No tough guy talk intended, the ambulance statement was made in reference to a group of close-knit people who respect and understand one another. You obviously aren't versed in understanding such concepts. The swallow their teeth comment stands.. if someone loses something, like a game, you don't rub it in by making an asinine comment like jeffkent did, referring to them as "degenerate" or "loser".
Unless you live on Mary Poppins Lane where life is all peaches and cream, you'd expect that guy to get popped in the mouth if that comment was made in real life.


I'm done posting in this thread now on this topic. You guys can go ahead and continue to try and bash SN all you want, I've tried to play peacemaker enough here. His record at the end of this season will speak for itself, and there will be a lot of happy people. The only unhappy ones will be those who do indeed, follow blindly, for which I say.. I tried to help.


Good-bye 

PS. For all the idiots concerned with bankroll percentages.. MLB 2009 System Releases won over 70% of it's picks. I don't care what Money Management System you tried to use, you would have still been very much on the +Units side of things. So far in this thread, he's hit 63% winners.. and that is only counting the teasers and parley as 1 win each. But whatever.. that sucks I guess.

Sorry, just one more thing before i leave..

GMSI I take it back that you may be the saddest individual I have ever seen on here.. there have been a lot of much sadder folks here.

I do still feel tho, your comments were uncalled for.

Have fun everyone and try to play nice.

Cheers 

your assessment is correct, the BR is without a doubt the most essential part of a cappers success, it also shepards in many directions, the complexity of MM should never leave the priorities of it's design, I would be more than accomadating to discuss BR technique with any true capper, or participant seeking br concept.

One thing I WILL NOT DO is discuss anything with a 'troll' surfing to create controversey so they can perform their act on center stage, they don't seek answers, they are after attention, and more attention...their post, commentary, reflect nothing more than a frustrated human being, not a sports handicapper.

FreakyFresh you are by far not a troll, nor are you an asshole, your a capper seeking a bonified understanding of the concepts connected to an NFL wagering BR; why all the drama? Is this your style of approach? if you don't knock, I can't answer the door,

may you have a prosperous NFL season

SN

If a wanted to talk about Money Management in general, I would start a separate thread about it.

I compared SN's MM in this thread with a very common MM (always bet to win 1 unit on favorites).
This comparison showed that SN had won 40.4 units and the 1 unit MM system had lost 5.5 units.

It therefore becomes very interesting to have SN explain his MM.
I waited patiently on SN to give further insight into his MM.
Maybe other readers, who naively has bet his picks using a 1 unit MM and lost, could gain some valueable information.

Without further information on his MM, it's not possible to give a fair evaluation of it.
At the surface his "success" are due to a few very risky bets (risking 38 units and 20 units)

But the fact is, that a normal, very sensible MM system would lose money on his picks.

"Is it just the fact that he doesn't list what the % of his bankroll is being invested on each play? Please tell me that isn't the problem here.."

The bankroll management is part of it.  The lack of unit documentation on the baseball thing was another big part of it.  He also pointed lines and over/under hurdles that were materially different from the actual available lines and hurdles in some situations.  What I view as really bad advice was another part of it.

The biggest thing though was the reaction when confronted with irregularities.  Frankly, he just acted guilty.  A lot of these things were a red flags that he was putting his finger on the scale.  With the first red flag, I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.  If he really wanted to provide a documented experiment, he would have to make a few minor changes. to make it obvious there was no finger on the scale.  He didn't seem to want to do this. As a matter of fact, he seemed to go out of his way to keep his finger as close to the scale as possible and also to create a fog so nobody got a good look at the scale whenever there was a measurement. 

"But his MLB thread was a proven success. "

To say that I don't believe his reported results would stand up to an independent audit is a major understatement...

More on teasers later.....

 

BINGO!