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NFL 09' strategic wagering...

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Prospect
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Posted: #326
Quote Originally Posted by snyder9:

Regardless, he doesn't have an obligation here to make things easy for us. Like he said, he is doing this for documentation sake. 


SN has always been very helpful.
If a poster has a problem SN will help him.


 
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Posted: #327
Fellas!
For everyone complaining...please go somewhere else!!!!
Howabout like on a "touts" thread, and bash them.
They are useless liars who fudge numbers and bull shit people. 
SN does not have to post his picks and you do not have to look at them.  He has no reason to lie or manipulate like a tout does.  They sell picks, SN is showing us his picks along with the reasoning for making them. 
Knowledge is power, and I would rather read his insightful write ups and the accompanying discussion then you douche bags and your bitching taking up space.  Do everyone a favor and save your comments since they distract everyone from what we are doing here.
When I read this thread I just want to look at his picks and see what intelligent PATIENT cappers think about games.  I do not care what he bets on his game or how much he makes.  If the games look good and ends up a winner then I should have wagered an amount that would maximize my return.  Concentrate on what YOU are betting.  You guys are directing your energy, which would be better served capping, at the wrong issue.  This in turn takes away from this thread which for me has been a great resource.  Thanks for trying to keep everyone honest but we are all big boys here and if we are getting burned folling SN then we will learn our lesson or go poor. 
SN my man crush on you grows deeper everyday
xoxoxoxoxoxo
j/k
but thanks for all the info and work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #328
Quote Originally Posted by xxxoddsmakerxxx:


When I read this thread I just want to look at his picks and see what intelligent PATIENT cappers think about games.  I do not care what he bets on his game or how much he makes.  If the games look good and ends up a winner then I should have wagered an amount that would maximize my return.


SN is obviously not flatbetting. If you want to maximize your bankroll growth you should care very much about how much SN bets on his pick.
An intelligent bettor would invest more on a pick where SN risk 20 units to win 5 units versus risking 5 units to win 1.25 units.
Therefore it's important to know if 5 units is the risk amount or the win amount.
 
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Posted: #329
Quote Originally Posted by snyder9:

Seriously, is it really that hard to read a release sheet?

Go through all the bets he's made prior to the last week. In all cases the units to win were whole units (non-teaser bets). 

From week 4

moneyline
Colts -550 ML / 11units (TO WIN 2)
Cowboys -140 ML / 4.2units (TO WIN 3)
Steelers -250 ML / 7.5units (TO WIN 3)
Giants -380 ML / 11.4units (TO WIN 3)
 
dog
BALTIMORE +3  -110 / 4.4units (TO WIN 4)
 
favourite
CINCINNATI -5  -110 / 3.3units (TO WIN 3)



Now, we have week 5 

NYG&PHI / twin ML   5units (approx. -400, so to win 1.25 units?)
 
MINN / ML  5units (around -600ML, so to win .8 units?)
 
CAR / ML   5units  (around -200 ML, so to win 2.5 units?)


Why suddenly would the units won take decimal form?? He just changed it from risked to "to win" without expressly stating it but still implying it through his wager release.

Now, lets stop this nitpicking and move on with things.

Good luck with week 6, SN.



the debate about the release sheet was clearly explained here.. so please let's just move on and discuss insights and assessments of this week's matchups..
btw SN would it be wise to be careful with the dog plays? because bad teams turn out to be as bad as they seem..
Gl and more power..
pekpek
 
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Posted: #330
yea SN is awesome man.
 
who cares bout his unit wins..it's his unit....he won man
 
just LET the good 13pt teaser play to keep come in ...guys
 
 
 
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Posted: #331
Quote Originally Posted by K4ngur13:

SN (or anybody else who has been a follower) I was wondering, I know you stated that you previously had a MLB thread (which I followed) and NHL (which i did not).  Are doing NHL this season, or do you, or anybody also has a link to previous season(s) so I can read through it.  Thank you in advance and as always i wish you Best of Luck!

M


Would appreciate that as well..
 
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Posted: #332

Quote Originally Posted by Peksman:




the debate about the release sheet was clearly explained here.. so please let's just move on and discuss insights and assessments of this week's matchups..
btw SN would it be wise to be careful with the dog plays? because bad teams turn out to be as bad as they seem..
Gl and more power..
pekpek

As always very well put, but people we are losing the concept of this thread...are we not?, since in reality who cares if SN indicates a 15 or 5 unit play on any particular game, these unit plays are an indication of how strong he feels about that particular game right?  so if you do not feel as strong about that game as SN does or does not, then don't bet on it,  review your films, make your own assessment, handicap the game as you see it and move on.  There are no garantee wins in gambling, there is only the practice of eliminating obsticles, that prevent us from making that garantee pick.   So if you are here just to find that garantee pick, and rely on someone else opionions, then so be it, if you win then great....but if you lose that bet on someone elses research/work, then that is your fault, not anyone elses,  since you were so lazy to do the work yourself.  And with that I am really tired of this topic since for me....it is a waste of time and knowledge, to all the children complaining.  PLEASE QUIT COMPLAINING AND DO THE WORK YOURSELF.  And I truly challenge anyone here that if they can produce a better Win Loss Ration then SN.   Then POST your picks NOW!!!  and if you can then I will more then be willing to provide you free picks with no strings on my website.

 
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Posted: #333
Quote Originally Posted by snyder9:


I used the "??" the highlight the absurdity of decimal win amounts when SN used whole number win amounts through week 4. Reading the release sheet properly, you would know that those bets are TO WIN 5 units. End of story.

As for the approximations, that was because I used averaged historical closing odds for those picks as I didn't play those games to know what the exact odds were.

Regardless, he doesn't have an obligation here to make things easy for us. Like he said, he is doing this for documentation sake. 

Why piss on it when he's kind enough to share it at the same time?!


People just don't fcken get it.

Nicely put Snyder9 !
 
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Posted: #334
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

As always very well put, but people we are losing the concept of this thread...are we not?, since in reality who cares if SN indicates a 15 or 5 unit play on any particular game, these unit plays are an indication of how strong he feels about that particular game right?  so if you do not feel as strong about that game as SN does or does not, then don't bet on it,  review your films, make your own assessment, handicap the game as you see it and move on.  There are no garantee wins in gambling, there is only the practice of eliminating obsticles, that prevent us from making that garantee pick.   So if you are here just to find that garantee pick, and rely on someone else opionions, then so be it, if you win then great....but if you lose that bet on someone elses research/work, then that is your fault, not anyone elses,  since you were so lazy to do the work yourself.  And with that I am really tired of this topic since for me....it is a waste of time and knowledge, to all the children complaining.  PLEASE QUIT COMPLAINING AND DO THE WORK YOURSELF.  And I truly challenge anyone here that if they can produce a better Win Loss Ration then SN.   Then POST your picks NOW!!!  and if you can then I will more then be willing to provide you free picks with no strings on my website.



what is your website?
 
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Posted: #335
Quote Originally Posted by K4ngur13:



what is your website?
www.oddscreatoronline.com, it is under-construction, but if you can provide a better win/loss ratio then SN then I will garantee that at the conclusion of the NFL season, I will credit your account with $150.00 free play money with NO ROLL OVER or stipulation.   This goes FOR EVERYONE who can do better then SN has.  So put up or shut up.   I just PUT UP.  Good Luck and let the Challenge go to EVERYONE and ANYONE.  Fee Free to PM me for more details.
 
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Posted: #336
make sure your virus protection software is on high and up-to-date before going to that site!!!
 
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Posted: #337
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

www.oddscreatoronline.com, it is under-construction, but if you can provide a better win/loss ratio then SN then I will garantee that at the conclusion of the NFL season, I will credit your account with $150.00 free play money with NO ROLL OVER or stipulation.   This goes FOR EVERYONE who can do better then SN has.  So put up or shut up.   I just PUT UP.  Good Luck and let the Challenge go to EVERYONE and ANYONE.  Fee Free to PM me for more details.



Good stuff man.......
Always like a good spirited competition..........
I'll look into it
Be tough though.......
Pushing the envelope is what makes us better
 
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Posted: #338
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

www.oddscreatoronline.com, it is under-construction, but if you can provide a better win/loss ratio then SN then I will garantee that at the conclusion of the NFL season, I will credit your account with $150.00 free play money with NO ROLL OVER or stipulation.   This goes FOR EVERYONE who can do better then SN has.  So put up or shut up.   I just PUT UP.  Good Luck and let the Challenge go to EVERYONE and ANYONE.  Fee Free to PM me for more details.


Win/Loss ratios are meaningless when you bet on ML like SN does.
A ML of -1200 has an implied probability of 92.3% meaning that if you only bet on favorites of -1200 or better you would expect to have a win% of at least 92.3%.

So anyone who would like to take up this generous offer could just PUT UP -1200 ML bets.

I think that would beat SN's win/loss ratio.
 
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Posted: #339
Quote Originally Posted by 3put:



Win/Loss ratios are meaningless when you bet on ML like SN does.
A ML of -1200 has an implied probability of 92.3% meaning that if you only bet on favorites of -1200 or better you would expect to have a win% of at least 92.3%.

So anyone who would like to take up this generous offer could just PUT UP -1200 ML bets.

I think that would beat SN's win/loss ratio.
  You are right and Wrong.....since here is the deal...when I say Win/Loss Ratio I am implying that you must make your picks prior to Sunday Morning Games (as SN does) and they MUST be posted or you may PM me with your picks for my verification.  At the conclusion of the season,  I will compare all of SN picks throughout this thread and whatever his win percentage will be document (i.,e.  50 wins  20 loss equals 71.42857% win ratio,  you must provide a better win % then SN,  and to make the bet even more interesting,  there is a min of 3 picks each week, and to insure that your picks are not the same as SN, I will have to receive eyour picks by 9:00am Friday Morning, even any of you are any good at what you think then take me up on this offer, and at the end of the season I will provide you with not $150.00 credit but $175.00 credit for wagering at the oddscreatoronline
 
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Posted: #340
Quote Originally Posted by pdg893:

make sure your virus protection software is on high and up-to-date before going to that site!!!
  You will not need to worry about that one bit, since there will be no virus on that site, and when it is up and running there will be a SSL and consistent if not the BEST virus protection available, and Sir...I do take that as a insult to my integrity and professionalism.  Thank You
 
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Posted: #341
And personally speaking, I do not care one way or the other if you come to the site, since when it is done, your patriosm will be insignificant.
 
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Posted: #342
Quote Originally Posted by pdg893:

make sure your virus protection software is on high and up-to-date before going to that site!!!

To be fair to everyone interested in this bet, I am asking that you do not visit this site at this time, in order for me to properly investigate this accusation of a virus being on this site.

 
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Posted: #343
But the Offer or challenge to ALL Cappers (or wantabe Cappers) stands
 
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Posted: #344
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

To be fair to everyone interested in this bet, I am asking that you do not visit this site at this time, in order for me to properly investigate this accusation of a virus being on this site.

The virus' name is Bloodhound.PDF.10 - high security threat - it was blocked by Norton360 - thankfully

 
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Posted: #345
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

  You are right and Wrong.....since here is the deal...when I say Win/Loss Ratio I am implying that you must make your picks prior to Sunday Morning Games (as SN does) and they MUST be posted or you may PM me with your picks for my verification.  At the conclusion of the season,  I will compare all of SN picks throughout this thread and whatever his win percentage will be document (i.,e.  50 wins  20 loss equals 71.42857% win ratio,  you must provide a better win % then SN,  and to make the bet even more interesting,  there is a min of 3 picks each week, and to insure that your picks are not the same as SN, I will have to receive eyour picks by 9:00am Friday Morning, even any of you are any good at what you think then take me up on this offer, and at the end of the season I will provide you with not $150.00 credit but $175.00 credit for wagering at the oddscreatoronline


Haha dude if these are the exact rules of this "little prop", and there aren't any hidden rules or things you want to or will change in the rules. I'll take the bet instantly, as long as those are the only documented rules.
 
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Posted: #346
Quote Originally Posted by pdg893:

The virus' name is Bloodhound.PDF.10 - high security threat - it was blocked by Norton360 - thankfully

Thank You for bringing this to my attention, I have contacted my programming informing him of this incident, but that is why when you brought this allegation to my attention, I immediately made a post, as I do not want to be the individual responsible for any virus.  Thank You and I will keep you posted
 
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Posted: #347
Quote Originally Posted by FreakyFresh:



Haha dude if these are the exact rules of this "little prop", and there aren't any hidden rules or things you want to or will change in the rules. I'll take the bet instantly, as long as those are the only documented rules.
  These are the rules, you match in picks what SN plays, if he plays 4 then you play four, if he plays 3 you play 3.   YOU MUST match his picks (meaning the number of picks he makes each week), if you post or PM me more picks then he post,  I will give you the opportunity to identify which picks you want.  It has got to be fair.   Since it would not be fair if SN makes a total of 4 picks and you make only 3.  So lets be fair about it, since it is free money IF YOU CAN DO BETTER THEN SN.  Well before the end of the NFL Season, oddscreatoronline, will be up and running Virus Free for you to collect your money
 
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Posted: #348
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

  You are right and Wrong.....since here is the deal...when I say Win/Loss Ratio I am implying that you must make your picks prior to Sunday Morning Games (as SN does) and they MUST be posted or you may PM me with your picks for my verification.  At the conclusion of the season,  I will compare all of SN picks throughout this thread and whatever his win percentage will be document (i.,e.  50 wins  20 loss equals 71.42857% win ratio,  you must provide a better win % then SN,  and to make the bet even more interesting,  there is a min of 3 picks each week, and to insure that your picks are not the same as SN, I will have to receive eyour picks by 9:00am Friday Morning, even any of you are any good at what you think then take me up on this offer, and at the end of the season I will provide you with not $150.00 credit but $175.00 credit for wagering at the oddscreatoronline



Not that I really care about any of this.. but this guideline is highly unfair to anyone willing to take up "your offer".. 

Any good NFL handicapper does not make their Final Cuts until Final Injury Reports are released on Friday.. your proposed deadline should be just before kick-off of the Weeks' 1st game, just like the rest of the World who runs NFL contests. Whether they have the same picks as SN shouldn't really matter. Often times a lot of the strong games of the week are going to be picked by more than one person. It doesn't mean they all get it right..

I think you would also agree, to start your own thread for this - with full rules and such, as to not take away from the focus of this thread.


Best of Luck 
 
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Posted: #349
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:




Not that I really care about any of this.. but this guideline is highly unfair to anyone willing to take up "your offer".. 

Any good NFL handicapper does not make their Final Cuts until Final Injury Reports are released on Friday.. your proposed deadline should be just before kick-off of the Weeks' 1st game, just like the rest of the World who runs NFL contests. Whether they have the same picks as SN shouldn't really matter. Often times a lot of the strong games of the week are going to be picked by more than one person. It doesn't mean they all get it right..

I think you would also agree, to start your own thread for this - with full rules and such, as to not take away from the focus of this thread.


Best of Luck 
  You are absolutely right....And I propose that the deadline be before kickoff.  And I am not trying to start a Thread, I am trying to show these children that sn IS DOING A GOOD JOB
 
 
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Posted: #350
Quote Originally Posted by pdg893:

The virus' name is Bloodhound.PDF.10 - high security threat - it was blocked by Norton360 - thankfully

  Sir, I believe I have fixed this problem, since after going through the program and using Panda 2010 this site came up clean, but I would greatly appreciate a second opinion from you, as you were the one that brought it to my attention.  Thank You.
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