NBA quarters chase

Quote Originally Posted by vixen321:

Hi Rizz,
I loved this quarter  system for the regular NBA system but it's crazy times during the playoffs!   I feel like the zig zag theory comes into play more  from one game to another during the series.  Playoffs are a different animal so I am going to look for situational opportunities that arise and try to be more selective.
Last night was a typical game for Boston coming out strong in the first half and 1st Q and then losing steam to lose and not cover the game.  Bad sign for Boston! Also not unlike Cavs and LBron to turn it on when they have to.
Your insight is awesome!!!!; I will still follow you.  GL !

Pretty much doing the same vixen.  My logic and info I posted on the hawks last game at home is how they played today which got me an early win, but last game would have had to chase til the 3rd qtr which makes me nervous in some of these tight games.  Hopefully we all have a good season with the bases.  Once the season is done, I am going to update my database for this year.  I am sure there are angles we could use to play team totals, over/unders, etc also.  I just wish I could get all the qtr by qtr lines, so we could really hammer this stuff.  Really like what you guys are doing in nabil's thread and have been following closely!

UTA at LAL

UTAH road

Cumulative:    37.9%     82.8%        89.7%        100%

by qtr:            37.95     58.6%         44.8%        55.2%

LAL home

cumulative:     50%      70.6%         91.2%         100%

by qtr:            50%      44.1%         64.7%          44.1%

LAL have won 2 out of last 3 first qtrs.  Think the lakers come out with high intensity to take the first... will likely be a tight series.  Utah is a good second qtr team on the road, LAL good in 3rd.  Jazz have a low 1st qtr % but good 2nd qtr so if they get down likely fight back.  LAL have a good 1st but not so good first 2 cumulative so may be more likely to lay down for the first half if they get behind.

Honestly, haven't looked into it much but I am sure a similar analysis could be run to try to predict outcomes

Jazz(Underdog) +7

Lakers(Favorite) -7

1st Half (Jazz +4) (Lakers -4), By Subtracting 7 By 50%, The Spread Should've Been -3.5, It Came Out To Be -4(Off By 0.5).  Lakers Win 53-45.  2nd Half (Jazz +1.5) (Lakers -1.5), By Subtracting -4 By 50% Again From 1st Half, The Spread Should've Came Out To -2(Off By 1.75).  Jazz Win 54-51.  Now I Read Somewhere That If The Favorite Is Covering By Halftime To Consider It A Play For The Next Half.  What Do U Think About This? 

Jay I have never heard that.  Not saying it isn't true but just that I have never read that before.  The only way to assess it would be to run an analysis on all the teams that won the 1st half and see the percentage that hits the second...

Tonights game

BOS at CLE

BOS road

cumulative:    40.6%      81.2%       93.8%          96.9%

by qtr:           40.6%      62.5%        43.8%         37.55

CLE home

cumulative:     61.3%       80.6%       100%         100%

by qtr:            61.3%       45.2%        54.8%        38.7%

Backtested for the 2007-8 season today.  Playing on all home teams to win at least one quarter (using one third the opening line as a guesstimate for the quarter lines)

1200/1230 = 97.6%

Spread in losses:

+5 and higher = 3

0 - +4.5 = 7

-0.5 - -5 = 7

-5.5 + = 13

These were stats I came up with during the regular season.  Cumulative means that team wins at least one quarter by the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th quarter.  The by qtr stats are just the percentage of the time that team wins each individual quarter.  Remember these are regular season stats.  We hope to hammer this next year during the regular season but have backed off for the playoffs...

Quote Originally Posted by Grizl-Shizl:

fuck, i'm stupid or what? I got it with "by qtr", but still can't understand "cumulative"..can you show example please? 

Lets take the cavs in the example you posted.   At home this season at the time I stopped tracking these stats the cavs won the 1st quarter in their games 61.3% of the time, 45% won the 2nd quarter, 54.8% of the time they won the 3rd qtr.

For the cumulative #'s, we are talking about the chance to win one quarter if we were chasing them, so they win the 1st qtr 61.3%, they win the first or second qtr 80.6% of the time, or they win at least 1 in the first 3 qtrs in 100% of their games.... once again these stats are outdated at this time but that is what they mean.

Quote Originally Posted by Grizl-Shizl:

it's all because of my the English

No worries grizl.  We generally would play on the team with the higher cumulative numbers for the first 2 or 3 quarters and bet until they win a quarter.  For example bet 10 on 1st qtr, 20 on 2nd, 40 on 3rd until we get a win.  Our goal is to leave each game with 10 (or whatever amount you hope to win) in your pocket.  Should be pretty easy to follow once we start making the plays next season.

Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

I really like this Rizz..

As someone who hates investing in the NBA, but loves to systematically take advantage of Live-Wagering options, this really intrigues me and I will be looking forward to implementing this next season at some point.

Great Work.

Cheers 

I was excited for the start of baseball, after the last 3 weeks or so I am ready to go back to regular season nba!  Hopefully we can all work together to really capitalize on this next season