Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

i havent crunched the numbers but just looking over a few tms from last year, it seems like most of the time the RL hits and also playing the very next series also hits at a high %, just another angle to look at...

Yeah, the way I ran the system you would not play SF to win until their next away series.  I did not completely run the complete season just by looking at the next series.  I started to do it and was finding more losses.  We can try to go through the season and see how it looks by completing it... What I was noticing is some teams were great at home and would have four or five sweeps at home and then have crappy road records.

I will try to run it this afternoon... We could actually play both series if we wanted to be aggressive with this if it also is a profitable angle.  I am posting the ML and RL plays (when juice is -150) or higher, but will keep the running record based on the ML plays as that is how this was first assessed and most of the numbers are based on that.  For those that want to try to reduce the juice on some of the plays can play the RL, but will likely have added series losses for the year (see previous post)

Milkman,

I ran quickly through and found 16 losses in the AL in 2008 and 16 losses 2009.  Some teams were very solid while others werent.  I am going to go back through the data for running the chase both ways to determine which teams accounted for the losses.

well if everything goes right tomorrow we will start to have some plays more often, looks like we could have a couple sweeps tomorrow...

i also see another way to do it that is prettty profitable....after a team is swept or sweeps someone bet on them to win 1 gm in there , next similar series seems to be a lot of winners like this also

Milkman,

what do you mean by their next similar series?

I have been working all day on another angle.  I will post it in another thread.  Looks pretty promising also.  Would have been very good in 2009, but haven't tested it for 2008 yet...

Okay guys since we have some time before our next play.  I looked back at the theoretical losses from 2008, 2009 to see if we had any habitual offenders.  Here is what I found

2008:

AL

Home : KC, CLE, TOR x2, NYY

Away:  Tex, DET   

2009:

Home:  MIN

Away:   DET, NYY      

 

NL 

2008: 

Home: COL*, StL, PIT x 2, MIL*, WAS

Away:  LAD, COL*, MIL*, WAS* , FLA   

2009:      

Home:   MIL*, HOU  

Away:   AZ, MIL*, CIN, PHI, FLA 

A few repeat offenders, primarily MIL who has accounted for two losses each year.  Four teams DET, NYY, MIL, FLA appeared as losses both seasons.  I backtested them into 2007 and the only one that would have posted a loss that year was NYY with one loss....  I guess my point is to use caution this season when these teams appear as plays.  I will try to point them out as we go along.

 

i mean either home or away series which every one was dimilar to the first series....cant wait to hear ur next angle

looks like all these teams are lined up for a sweer, lets get the brooms out tomorrow, lol

tigers
bluejays
phillies
twins
cards

yeah milkman that is what we are doing.  If a team sweeps during a home series you play them to win in their next home series.  If they get swept we will play them to lose.  Just posted the other angle, let me know what you think...

Hey Rizz.  Just requested you as a friend.  Would like to discuss a system with you and see if you can backtest it, which you seem very proficient at doing. 

Accepted the request.... I only charge if it is a non profitable angle... just kidding

Does anyone know a site that shows the MLB games, results, and schedule in a calendar format.  It is going to be hard to keep track of these two systems as far as sweeps and when new series start.  I appreciate any help from people to post the sweeps here and any new series with -150 odds in my other thread so we can keep track of the plays.

So far we have one sweep, TOR swept BALT....so for this series would our 1st play be

04/23/10  TOR @ tb   (1st away series since the sweep)

04/12/10 TB @ bal (TB is the play since BAL was swept in last series)


is this correct?

Yes this is right Milkman.

just got another sweep, somehow DET ended up sweeping CLEV....so would plays be

04/12/10 kc @ DET

04/20/10 clev @ MINN (play MINN since clev was swept last road series)

philly also swept houston....plays would be, let me know if im wrong just want to make sure i got this...

04/20/10 FLA @ houst (play FLA b/c hou was swept last home series?)

04/2/10  PHI @ atl

System record: 1-0-0

Plays for 4/12:

Series #2  (game 1)   1:05   kc @ DET

Series #3  (game 1) 7:05 TB @ bal

 

 

Pending:

SF @ lad (4/16)

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

 

Game 1 wins= 1

Game 2 wins = 0

Game 3 wins = 0 

Thanks for helping to keep track of the plays milkman.

Kind of got distracted crunching numbers like crazy for my other system.  I went back tonight and looked at the losses in the last two years and found a couple of things interesting.  Interleague games have created one loss in each of the last two years which isn't horrible but we may want to consider excluding those games when they get here.  Last year only three losses came from home team plays vs. seven for away game plays.. This pattern was actually slightly better for away plays in 2008, but just wanted to keep a watch to make sure we don't see that happening this year.  If so, we may be better off to just focus on one or the other.  Just some thoughts....  I will be backtesting 2007 this week also which will give us more information.

I got DET at -195 and, so this could be a chance to use the -1.5 RL.  I put about 70% on ML and 30% on +110 -1.5 line.

TB at -143

ouch that one hurt with the juice, but no worries there gonna beat KC this series and will win by more than 1.5..we'll get that money back

Yeah milkman, this one worries me a bit.  I am a Tigers fan and it seems for whatever reason KC always plays them tough.  I considered laying off, but will stay true to the system.  This matchup caused a system loss last year although DET was @KC in that situation.

so the play is still DET correct?  got DET -133, great odds...gm 2 of the chase correct?  just makin sure were on the same page..