Posted:
#101
Still on hold, no games today either.
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MLB/NHL Betting System
Posted:
#106
Quote Originally Posted by RisingDough:
Scriver, or anyone that may know. What is the "ca" term Scriver uses often in his posts. Probably obvious but I'd rather just ask and get it over with rather than sit here feeling stupid. Also I'm assuming those are supposed to be decimal points and not commas in his units won, etc.
Scriver, or anyone that may know. What is the "ca" term Scriver uses often in his posts. Probably obvious but I'd rather just ask and get it over with rather than sit here feeling stupid. Also I'm assuming those are supposed to be decimal points and not commas in his units won, etc.
Regarding what CA stands for, not sure.
Regarding the YTD format, I only see decimal points in the YTD statements. I'm sure I may have missed a couple so in any event, you are correct, they should all be decimal points.
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Posted:
#119
Hello and thank you to everyone who's been contributing to this thread. I'm sure w1s3k1d got busy so maybe I can kickstart this back up.
A question I had, if there were 4 games that fit, would you pick the 3 you prefer or split it into 2 2-team parlays?
Today there are 4 games that fit the bill:
LAD RL +145 @ STL ML +101 (o/u 8)
CHC RL +115 @ SD ML +132 (o/u 8.5)
NYY RL +110 @ BAL ML +132 (o/u 8.5)
DET RL +120 @ KC ML +121 (o/u 9)
Also, nfl_huskers, have you run any tests on whether this is profitable over an entire season? I see that you're running very helpful tests on the probability of certain outcomes, I'm just wondering whether you've seen anything to suggest that this is a good profit. I always wonder about profit when I see that a successful night (straight bets) results in .2 units won whereas an unsuccessful night results in 2 units lost. So you'd need to win 10 times to account for every loss. Any insight would be appreciated and if I can be of service in tracking this system I'm happy to help
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Posted:
#121
Quote Originally Posted by w1s3k1d:
I want to get peoples opinions on this. This has been very profitable for me over the last couple of years. I wanted to know what you all thought about it and see if there was any way to improve it. This only works on sports where the PL/RL is always -1.5 (so MLB and NHL).
I want to get peoples opinions on this. This has been very profitable for me over the last couple of years. I wanted to know what you all thought about it and see if there was any way to improve it. This only works on sports where the PL/RL is always -1.5 (so MLB and NHL).
The idea is to bet on opposite teams in a parlay bet, grabbing + odds for every pick.
For example, let's say you have Red Sox vs Yankees and then Cubs vs Cardinals and the odds look like this:
Red Sox: ML -160, RL +130
Yankees: ML +130, RL -200
Cubs: ML -170, RL +120
Cardinals: ML +135, RL -190
I would parlay all 4 possible winning combinations, taking the + odds for every pick:
Parlay 1: Sox RL, Cubs RL
Parlay 2: Sox RL, Cards ML
Parlay 3: Yanks ML, Cubs RL
Parlay 4: Yanks ML, Cards ML
The only way you would lose is if either the Sox and/or Cubs win by exactly 1 run. Chances of winning are very high, but your profits aren't going to be that high depending on the amount you bet on it and also if you add something else to each parlay.
If you were to put $50 on each of the 4 parlays, you'd spend $200 total and make between $253 ($50 profit) and $270 ($70 profit) if you win.
I tend to add the biggest ML fave to each parlay, even if it's at -300. That will noticeably increase the payout.
The system pays more in NHL, but there's more risk because goals don't come around as often as runs in MLB. Even + line between ML and RL in MLB is about +130. In NHL, that's about +160.
I don't have any results handy but I plan on starting this year as soon as the regular season kicks off!
Sorry, but I don't see any mention of win percentages in post #1. Maybe it was discussed later and you could point me in that direction?
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Posted:
#122
Quote Originally Posted by grabbitt:
Sorry, but I don't see any mention of win percentages in post #1. Maybe it was discussed later and you could point me in that direction?
Hey grabbitt,
You are correct. This thread was not using winning percentages as part of the filtering. It was using Away Favorites and O/U Total of 8 or higher. There was also some additional filtering on favorable odds, but I'm not sure what the criteria was for that.
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Posted:
#123
Quote Originally Posted by grabbitt:
Hello and thank you to everyone who's been contributing to this thread. I'm sure w1s3k1d got busy so maybe I can kickstart this back up.
Hello and thank you to everyone who's been contributing to this thread. I'm sure w1s3k1d got busy so maybe I can kickstart this back up.
A question I had, if there were 4 games that fit, would you pick the 3 you prefer or split it into 2 2-team parlays?
Today there are 4 games that fit the bill:
LAD RL +145 @ STL ML +101 (o/u 8)
CHC RL +115 @ SD ML +132 (o/u 8.5)
NYY RL +110 @ BAL ML +132 (o/u 8.5)
DET RL +120 @ KC ML +121 (o/u 9)
Also, nfl_huskers, have you run any tests on whether this is profitable over an entire season? I see that you're running very helpful tests on the probability of certain outcomes, I'm just wondering whether you've seen anything to suggest that this is a good profit. I always wonder about profit when I see that a successful night (straight bets) results in .2 units won whereas an unsuccessful night results in 2 units lost. So you'd need to win 10 times to account for every loss. Any insight would be appreciated and if I can be of service in tracking this system I'm happy to help
I started to back test the system, but I wasn't sure of the exact criteria being used, except for Away Favorites and O/U Total greater than 8, so I just used that filtering.
On days when the number of plays was even, I split them up into 2-team parlays. So, four plays turned into two 2-team parlays. If the number of plays was three, I used a 3-team parlay. If the number of plays was odd and greater than 3, such as 5, then I used one 2-team parlay and one 3-team parlay. Basically, tried to use all available plays. Make sense?
I'd have to go back over the data for 2016. I didn't save the results. I just remember bouncing between break even and a profit of +15 units. Never went negative.
Those 3-team parlays were good and bad. They went on quite a few winning streaks, and were the primary reason for the +15 unit profit. However, there were a couple losing streaks that dropped it back to break even very quickly.
I personally think that the system can be profitable because it is based on two filters that generate a positive ROI on the run line. However, I just mentioned those filters early in this thread as a starting point.
More research needs to be done on the games where the run line loses. This system multi-team parlay also wins if the underdog wins. We need to maximize the instances where the underdog wins and minimize the instances where the favorite only wins by 1.
I need to play around with those numbers.
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Posted:
#124
Hello people. I started using this system a month ago, making parlays in the MLB playoffs, the Japanese and Korean playoffs of baseball. Also, i did it in NHL.
The results were amazing. +6 units. I'm excited on the start of the next MLB season in 2018.
Also, I might add, I was probably very lucky, and I need to be very careful with the games I pick, But I never had so many good results with a system before.
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