MLB/NHL Betting System

Winning percentage generally goes up each month as the season progresses, except for January.

October        60.6%     +$344
November     63.1%     +$1204
December    62.9%     +$1137
January        52.1%     -$482
February      65.8%     +1660
March          65.4%     +2345
April            75.0%     +1141

6 out of 10 seasons have a loss after October.
4 out of 10 seasons have a loss after November.
2 out of 10 seasons have a loss after December.
6 out of 10 seasons have a loss after January.
5 out of 10 seasons have a loss after February.
1 out of 10 seasons have a loss after March.
0 out of 10 seasons have a loss after April.

Looks like a strategy would be:

Skip October.
Bet in November and December.
Take a break in January.
Finish strong the rest of the season.

ROI for Away Favorites with Away Winning Percentage from .390 to .480 is only +1.2%. Record is 412-308, so definitely more games, but with an average line of -132, not much profit.

Looks like the sweet spot for Away Favorites and Away Winning Percentage is .450 to .520 ... ROI = +5.6%

Last three seasons averaged 80+ plays and a profit of 13 units.
This season has 70 plays so far, and overall loss of 1 unit.

Only two losing seasons from 2006 - 2015 (11 and 14 units)

Awesome stuff man, just awesome, thank you for checking those.
I believe this system is ready for the next season man. I think it should exactly like you pinpointed above.

Thanks for checking this already now! This option sounds like a much higher variance option even if the average amount of units profited per season would be higher. I do like the "original" away favorite system more.

nfl_huskers, I have no idea how long it takes for you to run such queries, but I believe that you should be charging good money for making queries for people. For example, charge 10-100 bucks per query depending on how many variables it contains, how many seasons it covers, and how detailed the results are. Of course the price of the queries could be more depending on how long it takes to do them. Also, the price should go up a lot as the demand goes up, which it certainly would. Then you could start hiring others to do the queries etc etc etc.

Just a though. I cant help myself, Im still a business man at heart :D

Anyways, I will be trying to learn how to do these queries for the next NHL season. I will also try to learn something about MLB betting so that I can get into some of those systems as well.

Thanks, man. I'll need to start up a new thread at the beginning of next season to track this thing, and we'll see how it goes.

FYI ... got a play tonight with Kings over the Canucks. Kings are -188 on Covers right now with a .474 win percentage. We'll see ...

The line is set at -172 in the SDQL database. Looks like most books have it in the -170 to -175 range.

Doesn't look like the system comes with many low scores and shutouts. Out of 451 results, there were 110 games with 5 goals, 85 games with 7 goals, and 75 games with 3 goals. Those were the top three.

There were 7 games where the favorite won 2-0.
There were 2 games where the favorite won 1-0.

Total of 32 shutouts (not necessarily the favorite winning) out of 451 results.

Thanks man! Could you possibly give a total number of U4,5 scores for those 451 results? As that is the thing that matters.

I have done very extensive backtesting of U4,5 scores as well as shutout scores.

Normally ca 33 % of all games end up with U4,5 goals. With games with odds of ca +280 for the U4,5 the % of games ending with U4,5 is very high, giving more than a 12,5 % ROI per season. That is my main system.

WIth the shutouts, a normal season has ca 14 % of games ending with a shutout. Hence, like you mentioned too, 32/451 games is very very low. Still, the 9 shutouts for the favorite would actually make it profitable, with ca +6400 odds. I would have to check the odds. STILL, with less than 1 game per seaspn ending with a 1-0/2-0 shutout win for the favorite... I think that we will find much better categories for it. And less variance categoreis too.

Im revealing a bit too much about my system now but here we go:
Basically need to find a category where the (normally favorite) team wins as often as possible. The more often the team wins, the more often it ends with a shutout. The best Ive gotten so far is min -225 favorites winning 73,7% of the time. 12,7 % of all games ending with a shutout for the FAVORITE team. That is brilliant. BUT, the problem is that the average odds are lower for the shutout when the winner is a big favorite. AND the most common result is 3-0. That is the problem. WIth playing e.g. 1-0 to 5-0, the average odds need to be ca +4900. Which is a bit of a strech.

That is what I will do for the next season too, but I will try to find a better category of games that have higher odds (more even games). Therefore the results you got of 9 shutouts of 1-0 and 2-0 out of 451 results might be enough as in rather even games the average odds of those are rather high. On average +5900 is enough to get a 20 % ROI.

I will have to see what to do. Anyways, just some thoughts. I have a very high ROI system with the shutouts for the playoffs if the odds are high enough.

Thanks for the information on your shutout system. You've done great research. I'll have to run a few more queries over the summer to see if I can narrow down categories that get more wins/shutouts. I'm looking forward to finding some new systems with NHL. I've never looked into it before.

Here's the info you requested ...

There were 129 games (out of 451) where the total score was under 4.5.

Favorite     Underdog     Number of Times
    0                 1                      2
    0                 2                      2
    0                 3                      3
    0                 4                      2
    1                 0                      2
    1                 2                      21
    1                 3                      16
    2                 0                      7
    2                 1                      40
    3                 0                      11
    3                 1                      16
    4                 0                       7

Yea, there seems to be plenty of possibly profitable systems for NHL, as, I would assume, it is not as popular in betting as MLB, NBA or NFL. Hence there could be more room for "errors" or room to adjust from the bookies' side. Just a thought.

Thanks for the stats! Only 28,6 % of all games ended with U4,5. No Under system there then. Could be an Over system available as theres so few unders.

Yea, I think the shutout system could be improved a lot. I was first very excited when I found the category I described in my previous post. But when I noticed the odds, it kinda came apart or at least become a close to +-0 system.

Interestingly, the most shutouts come with home favorites (of course) AND road dogs. Almost as many road dog shutouts as home fav shutouts e.g. in season 2010-2011. Normally seems to be 2 to 1 (90 vs 45 etc). Maybe there could be some category there. Road dogs seem to have the odds of +9900 for score 1-0 and often ca +7400 for 2-0 when its supposed to be a high scoring game. With a low scoring game it seems to be ca +8000 for 1-0 and +5400 for 2-0. And those are for rather even matches. With a bigger road dogs the odds are higher, but most likely there are also less shutouts.

If one would start somewhere with the shutout-system tests, I would say road dogs, and rather small road dogs (as they are basically "favorites" despite the odds).

Let me know how the summer queries end. I will try to learn to do the queries as well so I could run those as well.

So I will start tracking MLB picks today. There were no games yesterday that matched our criteria (thank you nfl_huskers!): away favs, o/u 8 or higher, and favorable odds. There was one away fav with favorable odds but the o/u was 7.5.

Good luck!  I hope this thing starts like 2015 and 2016.

2015:  April 4 - May 7:  Only three one-run wins by the away favorite. There were 44 other games won by over one run or by the underdog.

2016:  April 8 - May 31:  Only four one-run wins by the away favorite. There were 68 other games won by over one run or by the underdog.

I didn't filter by money line. This is just away favorites and total >=8.

Corrected. Had my years switched.

Well we're off to a somewhat ominous start. I was excited when Cleveland went up 4-2 in the 8th, but then they gave up a run in the 9th to screw it up. 

 @the same thing happening last year. 

On tap for today (odds from Bovada):

Yesterday's results:

Another good day yesterday. Results:

Nice!

A request: Could you also follow the Units won/lost. Would make it easier to see how the system is doing monetarily. Not sure if you are betting them yet or just forward testing the system but still.

Good luck!

Great results considering almost half the games yesterday were 1-run games.

Sure thing, Scrivero. I'll give that a shot. I've never really done that so call me out on math if it's not right!

After no action yesterday, here's the single game for today:

Thanks man! I can never seem to follow how a system is doing just by the record, this makes its much much easier to see how its going.