MLB/NHL Betting System

Hey Scrivero,

Still reviewing your post, but wanted to get you those requested SDQL results. Not sure where the site get all the data and lines, but hopefully it's accurate enough.

Got a season-by-season breakdown of the three different results (favorite wins by 1 goal, favorite wins by more than one goal, underdog wins) for the line range from -170 to -190.

-190 <= line <= -170           
           
Season     Favorite by 1     Favorite by > 1     Underdog
2006                 31                    59                     54
2007                 31                    50                     54
2008                 33                    49                     46
2009                 42                    54                     60
2010                 28                    45                     49
2011                 29                    41                     56
2012                 20                    27                     26
2013                 35                    53                     57
2014                 42                    54                     58
2015                 28                    44                     59
2016                 38                    42                     36

Also, got a season-by-season breakdown of the three different results (favorite wins by 1 goal, favorite wins by more than one goal, underdog wins) for the line range from -110 to -130.

-130 <= line <= -110           
           
Season     Favorite by 1     Favorite by > 1     Underdog
2006                 73                    75                     168
2007                 86                  128                     192
2008                 88                  107                     166
2009               109                  101                     173
2010               100                  112                     194
2011               117                  128                     206
2012                81                    78                     126
2013               111                  125                     188
2014                93                  112                     177
2015               116                  122                     189
2016                87                  102                     169

Hopefully, this data will help you calculate whether the number of games falling into each outcome matches your ROI's.

Thank you a ton nfl_huskers!! :) :)

I will calculate the numbers later tonight, but it sure looks at least promising, if I understood the categories correctly and if they match the categories which I had in mind.

I still think that one would have to come up with 1 or 2 extra/secondary/primary criteria for choosing the games besides just the odds.

I will come back to this later :)

I couldnt wait, so I calculated the -170 to -190 already now and the results are that:

33,6 % of all games with a -170 to -190 favorite end up with exactly 1 goal difference.

That means that with average odds of -180 we get the following exact results with 1 unit bet per result (ML fav and +1,5 dog):
- 33,6 % of games we make a profit of +1,107 units per game. This is the games where fav wins by exactly 1 goal.
- 18,6 % of games we make a loss of -0,448 units per game. This is the games where the dog actually wins the game ML.
- 47,8 % of games we make a loss of -0,445 units per game. This is the games where the fav wins with 2 goals or more.

Our profit/ROI would be (warning, this number is wrong):
- ca the estimated +10,7 %.

BUT, taht is actually incorrect. As I calculated the estimate wrong yesterday. I was thinking that we get a profit of ca 0,214 units per game/per 2 units played. That is wrong, as its actually a profit of ca 0,214 units per 3 games. That gives us a profit of ca 0,07 units per game. Hence, the ROI is actually much much smaller than the original calculations showed.

The real ROI with the results above is ca +3,5 %.

My brain is not functioning right now to calculate the exact ROI. But its close to the above as the loss per game with with 2 goal win or dog win as the loss for both is almost the same.

I will calculate it exactly later if necessary.

There are ca 97 games in this category per season. That would mean that with betting 2 units per game we end up playing for ca 194 units. Our profit with a +3,5 % ROI would be +6,79 units.

That may or may not be worth playing, BUT, if one could find variables that would make the selection of the playable games different, then we could maybe find something with a much better ROI, maybe.

I will calculate the -110 to -130 now too.

WARNING: Thre could still something that I figured out wrong in the above calculations but it should be correct.

And here is the calculation for the games of ML fav with odds of -110 to -130, with average odds of -120:
- 33,8 % of games we make a profit of +1,196 units per game. This is the games where fav wins by exactly 1 goal.
- 28,3 % of games we make a loss of -0,637 units per game. This is the games where the dog actually wins the game ML.
- 37,9 % of games we make a loss of -0,167 units per game. This is the games where the fav wins with 2 goals or more.

Lets see if my brain works now, as we need to really calculate the exact ROI:
- Lets make the calculations easy and calculate with just 100 games even if there are 285 games per season. We will still get the right ROI.
- So:
33,8x1,196=40,42
28,3x-0,637=-18,02
37,9x-0,167=-6,33

Total: 16,07/100=0,167 units per game. ROI of +8,35 %.

Just to help my brain, to see if we get the same results with the previous -170 to -190 category (and to get the right ROI for that too):
- 33,6 x 1,107 = 37,19
- 18,6 x -0,448 = 8,33
- 47,8 x -0,445 = 21,2

7,66/100=0,076 units per game. ROI of +3,8 %

AND always, when the results are as good as they are for the -110 to -130 category, we HAVE TO calculate this again and probably even check some of the original stats again.

That is because a ROI of 8,35 % is pretty darn high with just having a category of certain odds. Then again, maybe the bookies have missed the fact that this is so profitable, to play it this way, to get a winner for each and every game, with just the amount of win (or loss) changing due the game ending either with exactly 1 goal margin for the fav, or with margin of 2 goals or more for the fav, or with the dog winning.

Next up: Calculating just the option of playing only the fav winning ML, or PL, or the dog winning, to see what results we get. If the results there are even better, then we really need to double check some things.

Here we go, ROI for betting just ML or PL or dog winning ML for the categories of -170 to -190 and -110 to -190.

-170 to -190:

Only fav ML: 81,4 % of games with odds -180: ROI of +26,17 %
Only fav PL: 47,8 % of games with odds +163: ROI of +25,7 %
Only dog ML: 18,6 % of games with odds +162: ROI of -51,3 %.

I must say that I dont trust those numbers at all.

-110 to -130:

Only fav ML: 71,7 % of games with odds -120: ROI of +31,4 %
Only fav PL: 37,9 % of games with odds +248: ROI of +31,9 %
Only dog ML: 28,3 % of games with odds +109: ROI of -40,9 %.

Still not buying these results at all.

I will do the same calculations for all this stuff again tomorrow and see where the mistakes are.

If I get the same results then I will check the original stats.

The results I got via my calculations are obviously wrong. AND as these calculations are wrong, then the calculations in the previous two posts are also wrong and so are the ROI of both.

I will be back tomorrow :) Do point out any mistakes you see.

Can I check that I understood this right as my results are very much incorrect even if I thought I got everything right:

1. The "Favorite by 1" means that the Favorite wins by EXACTLY 1 goal, right?
2. The "Favorite by >1 means that the Favorite wins with AT LEAST 2 goals or more, right?
3. The "Underdog" means that the Underdog wins with any goal amount AND also includes the fav winning by exactly 1 goal?

I THINK I SEE MY MISTAKE!

I think the number 3 "The Underdog" means exactly what you said, JUST Underdog winning.

LOL, I was somehow stuck with the idea that it included the +1,5 handicap :D

Oh my, that solves the mystery, lets calculate everything again below.

The REAL results:

25,2 % of all games with a -170 to -190 favorite end up with exactly 1 goal difference.

That means that with average odds of -180 we get the following exact results with 1 unit bet per result (ML fav and +1,5 dog):
- 25,2 % of games we make a profit of +1,107 units per game. This is the games where fav wins by exactly 1 goal.
- 39 % of games we make a loss of -0,448 units per game. This is the games where the dog actually wins the game ML.
- 35,8 % of games we make a loss of -0,445 units per game. This is the games where the fav wins with 2 goals or more.

And here is the calculation for the games of ML fav with odds of -110 to -130, with average odds of -120:
- 25,3 % of games we make a profit of +1,196 units per game. This is the games where fav wins by exactly 1 goal.
- 46,4 % of games we make a loss of -0,637 units per game. This is the games where the dog actually wins the game ML.
- 28,3 % of games we make a loss of -0,167 units per game. This is the games where the fav wins with 2 goals or more.

So, the ROI for -110 to -130:
25,3x1,196 = 30,26
46,4x-0,637 = -29,55
28,3x-0,167 = -4,72

Total: -4,01/100 = -0,04 units per game. ROI of -2 %.

ROI for -170 to -190:
- 25,2 x 1,107 = 27,9
- 39 x -0,448 = -17,47
- 35,8 x -0,445 = -15,93

- 5,5/100 = -0,055 units per game. ROI of -2,75 %

Now, THOSE numbers sound correct. Still possible to make those bets profitable if one could find a category or more secondary variables that would make the ROI higher.

Next up, the results for just playing the ML or PL or the Dog ML for both categories of odds.

ROI for betting just ML or PL or dog winning ML for the categories of -170 to -190 and -110 to -130.

-170 to -190:

Only fav ML: 60,94 % of games with odds -180: ROI of -5,24 %
Only fav PL: 35,83 % of games with odds +163: ROI of -5,77 %
Only dog ML: 39,06 % of games with odds +162: ROI of +2,34 %.

Sounds about right.

-110 to -130:

Only fav ML: 53,6 % of games with odds -120: ROI of -1,75 %
Only fav PL: 28,3 % of games with odds +248: ROI of -1,52 %
Only dog ML: 46,4 % of games with odds +109: ROI of -3,02 %.

Sounds depressingly correct :D Thats how the bookies take our money. And THATS WHY we NEED and CAN find some systems that combine various things, because just betting ML or PL or dog ML etc just blind is always gonna end in losing money.

Thanks for baring with me :D Sorry that the initial calculations were wrong. Im sorry for myself too, I think this took me altogether ca 3 hours. Thats cool though, its all learning and fun :)

PEOPLE! Please ignore my posts number 29, 30 and 31. They contain all wrong results as I initially interpreted the awesome stats of nfl_huskers all wrong.

Instead, READ the posts number 33 and 34, as they contain all the correct results.

You can also read the post number 32 where I realized my mistake after 2 hours of analysing and calculating :D

See you probably tomorrow! Im loving the way we are doing this, we will end up somewehre awesome!

Nice analysis! Figures the numbers always seem to come out with the standard -2-3% ROI, but that's where finding those extra variables comes in, like you said. The SDQL site was acting strange when I tried to add some extra NHL variables. Might be a glitch.

I'm still working on some back testing for the 2-team, 4-parlay system described at the beginning of this thread. Hoping for good results, but guessing I might need some extra variables there too.

Did a bit more NHL research using SDQL once the site started working again. To maximize the number of games where the ML favorite wins by exactly one goal, you would need to include variables that increase the ROI on ML favorite wins in general, which removes some underdog wins.

First thing I checked was Away Favorites versus Home Favorites.  Just betting on Home Favorites had an ROI of -2.6%. Betting on Away Favorites had an ROI of 0.0%; literally break even.  So, betting on Away Favorites is the first step. Definitely limits the number of plays (10,000+ games with HF and 3,400 games with AF since 2006).

Next, I checked Away Favorites and their winning percentage.  WP above .500 had ROI of -0.2%. WP below .500 had ROI of +4.8%.

Amazing, just betting on Away Favorites with a losing record gives an ROI of +4.8% since 2006.

Total plays over that time is 673 with 196 of them ending with the ML Favorite winning by exactly one goal (29.1%), so edging closer to your target of 33% for your betting idea.


Best I could do from there was fine-tune the winning percentage range a bit.  Betting on Away Favorites with a winning percentage of .390 to .480 gave an ROI of 12.7%. Since 2006, number of plays was 449 (~40 per season) with 142 having ML Favorite winning by exactly one goal (31.5%).

Wins by 1 goal:  142
Wins by 2+ goals:  140
Underdog winner: 167


Here are the results since 2006 when just betting the Away Favorite with a winning percentage from .390 to .480. Again, no guarantees on the data from the SDQL site.

Games   SU W - L (marg, %win)   Avg Line     $ On     $ Invested     Season
39        31-8 (1.49, 79.5%)     -131.9     +$2,113      $5146.0      2006
33        19-14 (-0.03, 57.6%)   -124.2      +$217       $4098.0      2007
44        25-19 (0.43, 56.8%)    -125.8       +$74       $5534.0      2008
35        21-14 (0.54, 60.0%)    -122.0      +$439       $4271.0      2009
33        23-10 (0.82, 69.7%)    -129.4      +$977       $4270.0      2010
30        19-11 (0.70, 63.3%)    -120.7      +$520       $3621.0      2011
24        15-9 (0.33, 62.5%)     -122.2      +$342       $2934.0      2012
50        28-22 (0.16, 56.0%)    -122.0      +$154       $6101.0      2013
51        38-13 (1.20, 74.5%)    -136.7     +$2,098      $6970.0      2014
49        28-21 (0.22, 57.1%)    -126.0      +$236       $6173.0      2015
61        35-26 (0.08, 57.4%)    -128.5       +$79       $7853.0      2016

Looks like Winnipeg just beat New Jersey 4-3 as -115 away favorites having a winning percentage of .447 (34-42) coming into the game, so add another one to the list of winners.

Hey, and they won by one goal!

Amazing analysis and stats nfl_huskers!!

Your result were amazing with the "Betting on Away Favorites with a winning percentage of .390 to .480 gave an ROI of 12.7%. Since 2006 number of plays was 449." Thats awesome! The high amount of games per season helps to achieve positive results each season too, as shown by your data.

By the way, is that winning percentage of .390 to .480 based on some historical data from a longer period or is it per season? That is, do the plays come from teams having a winning % of .390 to .480 on that specific season, or e.g. during the last 5 seasons?

Could it be possible to even start picking some winners based on that criteria even this season? Would be fun to see it in action :)

I will calculate the stats for the ROI in the MLfav/+1,5 dog -betting system. BUT, I think we have to bury that system, because even with the goal of 33 % 1-goal-wins the ROI does not seem to climb past ca +1 or +2 or 3 %. That is because my original estimate of ca 10 % 2 days ago was faulty, as I miscalculated it.

By the way, I think I must learn how to do SDQL-queries. That is because using excel just seems to take 3 hours on something that would take much much less by doing SDQL-queries. I think the SDQL-queries data is also more trustworthy, hence the results as well.

Do you use SportsDatabase or some other site?

You read my mind! :D Check my previous post's questions as well, if you have time, but what would be the plays for e.g. tonight?

Winning percentages (.390 to .480) are for the current season. So, look for Away Favorites with this season's winning percentage in that range.

Looks like the system holds up very well in April. Not many plays, but higher winning percentage. Very possible the underdogs are gradually getting eliminated from the playoffs as the season comes to an end, so more favorites are winning. I actually looked at some underdog systems, and they get worse in April for the same possible reason.

Yep, I use Sports Database.

I don't see a play for Wednesday. Looks like all away teams have a winning record.

Thanks for the replies!

Yes, some teams might be e.g. tanking for a good draft pick etc and many other reasons. I will check if there is a play for Thursday.

I do also have other systems running since January, but I have stopped them until the playoffs, as the end of the season seems rather odd with the results in many ways. My "biggest" system is an Under system. I also have an Early goal system and my new Shutout system. I will see if the odds are playable for them in the playoffs.

Anyways, here are the results of the favML/+1,5dog system with the latest stats you provided.

Counting for the average odds for a ca -125 fav, as that was ca the average odds for the favs with a .390 to .480 winning % for the season:

-125 fav (1,83 decimal) ML (dog ML is +115) (2.15 decimal)
PL for fav is +235 (3,35 decimal)
+1,5 for dog is -263 (1,38 decimal)

Your stats were:

Wins by 1 goal:  142
Wins by 2+ goals:  140
Underdog winner: 167

Percentages:

Total games: 449
% of Wins by 1 goal: 31,6 %
% of Wins by 2+: 31,2 %
% of Underdog winner: 37,2 %

Win/loss of each scenario, two 1 unit bets for each game:
- 31,6 % of games we make a profit of +1,21 units (0,83 + 0,38) per game (This is the games where fav wins by exactly 1 goal and we win both bets).
- 31,2 % of games we make a loss of -0,17 units per game. This is the games where the fav wins with 2 goals or more.
- 37,2 % of games we make a loss of -0,62 units per game. This is the games where the dog actually wins the game ML.

Counting the ROI for the favML/+1,5dog system:
31,6x1,21=38,236
31,2x-0,17=-5,304
37,2x-0,62=-23,064
ROI: 9,868/100 = +0,098 units per game. ROI of +4,9 %.

So thats ok, but, I think we will get better results just betting the favML or favPL or dogML or dog+1,5. nfl_huskers already calculate the ML for the away fav. Lets calculate all of them:

Only favML: 62,8%x-125 (1,83 decimal): ROI +14,9 %
OnlyfavPL: 31,2%x+235 (3,35 decimal): ROI +4,5 %
Only dogML: 37,2%x+115) (2.15 decimal): ROI -20%
Only dog+1,5: 68,8%x-263 (1,38 decimal): ROI -5,05%

nfl_huskers, your result of ROI +12,7 % is the right one for sure, as it has the actual odds (if they are exactly correct), otherwise it could be closer to my +14,9 %. Either or, thats just an amazing result.

What now then? Well, its pretty clear that we HAVE TO start betting on the category that nfl_huskers found, that is the Betting on Away Favorites with a winning percentage of .390 to .480.

So its ca 40 games per season.. I see that your dollar stats came from always betting enough to win 100 bucks of profit, that is, betting 120 bucks with -120 odds to win 100 bucks etc.

That made a profit of 7249 dollars for 11 years. Thats ca 659 dollars per season for ca 40 games and betting for ca 5000 dollars bet during a season.

nfl_huskers, do you have a way to check how much the variance was for the systems throughout the 11 seasons or during 1 season? Im just wondering if it ever went like 1000 dollars minus before starting to hit and ending up at plus in the end? I love low-variance systems but those are normally also the systems which do not win huge.

My favML/+1,5dog system would decrease the variance A LOT, but.. the ROI would be so much smaller that I am willing to accept the higher variance for the awesome ROI :)

nfl_huskers or anyone else, any other improvements to the system that nfl_huskers came up with?

Holy crap!!!! 

Great question, Scrivero. I like to track variance too. Here's a look at the highest plus and lowest minus for each season.

Never really down big considering each wager is based on winning $100.


Season     Max      Min      Final      Notes
2006       +2113    +100     +2113     Never negative!
2007        +217     -471      +217
2008        +492     -567        +74
2009        +546     -418      +439
2010        +977     -310      +977
2011        +715     -130      +520
2012        +505     -222      +342
2013        +500     -130      +154
2014      +2176    +100     +2098     Never negative!
2015        +467     -544      +236
2016        +368     -462      +179      Season not over.

You want an NBA system?!

I'm starting to wish we had this system at the beginning of the NHL season, but something to keep for next year. I've never bet on NHL. Now, I need to switch gears to baseball before opening day next week.

However, I found one thing that tightens this NHL system up a bit further if you like a much smaller number of plays.

• Filter for opponents (the home underdogs) with a winning percentage from .330 to .450.
• So, basically you've got Away Favorites with a record from .390 to .480 facing Home Underdogs with a record from .330 to .450.
  

Number of plays drops from 449 to 246.

ROI increases from 12.7% to 24.3%.

Results since 2006 ...

Games   SU W - L (marg, %win)   Avg Line     $ On     $ Invested     Season
14        11-3 (1.79, 78.6%)     -126.4      +$719       $1770.0      2006
20        13-7 (0.10, 65.0%)     -128.0      +$447       $2559.0      2007
24        15-9 (0.79, 62.5%)     -122.8      +$426       $2947.0      2008
16        14-2 (1.69, 87.5%)     -123.0     +$1,162      $1968.0      2009
20        15-5 (1.25, 75.0%)     -129.6      +$791       $2592.0      2010
17        13-4 (1.47, 76.5%)     -117.8      +$811       $2002.0      2011
13         9-4 (0.85, 69.2%)     -123.5      +$350       $1605.0      2012
28        15-13 (0.00, 53.6%)    -116.2      -$8         $3253.0      2013
29        20-9 (1.07, 69.0%)     -125.4      +$894       $3638.0      2014
30        19-11 (0.33, 63.3%)    -128.7      +$566       $3862.0      2015
35        25-10 (0.69, 71.4%)    -123.8     +$1,255      $4334.0      2016

Thank you, w1s3k1d!  Looking forward to tracking a couple systems here this year.  One thing about that filter on road favorites and O/U of at least 8 is that the positive ML's and RL's aren't nearly as profitable, as expected. You get fewer games won by exactly one run, but the payout is smaller per win. Trade-offs.  Like you said, we'll see if we can find some trends along the way.  Good luck!

Thanks man! Indeed, thats not down almost at all, considering the big unit size. So basically down max ca 4 units during the season. The next question (to maybe calculate for the actual next season of NHL) would be to see if the start of the season is usually the time when the losses of the season come, or is it e.g. the end of the season.

This one sounds good too.

One "last thing" to do to maybe try to at least increase the amount of plays during the season (and at the same time increasing the possible amount of units won, allowing to maybe lower the unit size a bit if someone wishes to do so):
- Could you, nfl_huskers, run one last query:
-> Check the stats for away favorites winning when they have an AWAY-games winning % of .390 to .480

That would give probably a 100 % increase in the amount of plays or more. Right now there are 9 teams with that away-record, compared to just 4 teams with a total winning % of .390 to .480.

We can after that continue this when the next NHL season gets closer. I will try to understand and bet your MLB systems even if I have no idea about MLB, never followed or bet it.