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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

    «First Previous 192021 ... 333435 Next Last»
    Danrules24
    BuckeyeKaptn
    DegenGamble
    LaChupacabraj
    barrelrider
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    Posts: 866
    «First Previous 192021 ... 333435 Next Last»
     
    Danrules24
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 27, 2013 - 10:34 PM ET #451

    Monday 5/27 results

    Dog EFF Score

    1-1, +.15 units

    YTD 17-20, +.74 units

    Pitt 180 Loss

    Minn 115 WIN

    Dog EFF

    0-1, - 2 units

    YTD 43-38, +29.72 units

    All 2 units

    Tex game 1 105 Loss

    System Plays

    3-4, -.95 units

    YTD 132-155, +7.95 units

    Tex game 1 105 Loss

    SD 105 Loss

    Tor 105 WIN

    Minn 115 WIN

    Mets 105 WIN

    STL/KC Under 7 +110  Loss

    Cubs/Sox Under 7.5 -120 Loss

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Monday 5/27 results

    Dog EFF Score

    1-1, +.15 units

    YTD 17-20, +.74 units

    Pitt 180 Loss

    Minn 115 WIN

    Dog EFF

    0-1, - 2 units

    YTD 43-38, +29.72 units

    All 2 units

    Tex game 1 105 Loss

    System Plays

    3-4, -.95 units

    YTD 132-155, +7.95 units

    Tex game 1 105 Loss

    SD 105 Loss

    Tor 105 WIN

    Minn 115 WIN

    Mets 105 WIN

    STL/KC Under 7 +110  Loss

    Cubs/Sox Under 7.5 -120 Loss

     
    Danrules24
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 27, 2013 - 10:36 PM ET #452

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

    I don't know what else the criteria is for Underdogs w/ 6 or under hits, but the plays that come up are 25-16, 16.24u as opposed to the ones that actually do have 6 or less hits...5-2, 4.19u.  Just putting it out there for the action junkies!!!

    We are looking for teams who won their previous game and are facing a team within their division.

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

    I don't know what else the criteria is for Underdogs w/ 6 or under hits, but the plays that come up are 25-16, 16.24u as opposed to the ones that actually do have 6 or less hits...5-2, 4.19u.  Just putting it out there for the action junkies!!!

    We are looking for teams who won their previous game and are facing a team within their division.

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 6:34 AM ET #453

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Today is an easy one. Every team except the Unders was in the MLB Underdog system. None qualified for any of the other 3 systems.


    Shoot, I meant Sunday's, the 26th.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Today is an easy one. Every team except the Unders was in the MLB Underdog system. None qualified for any of the other 3 systems.


    Shoot, I meant Sunday's, the 26th.
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 6:47 AM ET #454

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    We are looking for teams who won their previous game and are facing a team within their division.


    Ignore that post.  I just went back and reread the article.  The "5-2, 4.19u." is for Dogs that won and only had 6 or less hits.  The article said "Allowed 6 or less hits", so I have to recalulate.  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    We are looking for teams who won their previous game and are facing a team within their division.


    Ignore that post.  I just went back and reread the article.  The "5-2, 4.19u." is for Dogs that won and only had 6 or less hits.  The article said "Allowed 6 or less hits", so I have to recalulate.  
     
    DegenGamble
    DegenGamble
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 10:39 AM ET #455

    Hey Guys,

    Uploaded a new version to Google Docs - (V11) - same link.

    I revised the Divisional Underdog system so we will only bet Divisional Underdogs when the following is TRUE:

    Play all divisional road underdogs when home team is favored -116 to -149 OR-170 to -249
    Play all divisional home underdogs when road team is favored -106 to -154

    Per the article I posted those line ranges are positive ROI over the past 10 years

    DG


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    Hey Guys,

    Uploaded a new version to Google Docs - (V11) - same link.

    I revised the Divisional Underdog system so we will only bet Divisional Underdogs when the following is TRUE:

    Play all divisional road underdogs when home team is favored -116 to -149 OR-170 to -249
    Play all divisional home underdogs when road team is favored -106 to -154

    Per the article I posted those line ranges are positive ROI over the past 10 years

    DG


     
    Danrules24
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 11:55 AM ET #456

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


    Shoot, I meant Sunday's, the 26th.

    I label them 1-5 from the sheet, with 1 being the low scoring dog and 5 being the Under bet. Here is what I had for Sunday. Multiple numbers mean they qualified for multiple systems.

    1222322344425
    Minn
    NYY
    Tex
    Phil
    Pitts
    Tor
    Cle
    SD
    STL/LAD

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


    Shoot, I meant Sunday's, the 26th.

    I label them 1-5 from the sheet, with 1 being the low scoring dog and 5 being the Under bet. Here is what I had for Sunday. Multiple numbers mean they qualified for multiple systems.

    1222322344425
    Minn
    NYY
    Tex
    Phil
    Pitts
    Tor
    Cle
    SD
    STL/LAD

     
    Danrules24
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 11:56 AM ET #457

    Sorry that didn't format right:

    Minn - 12

    NYY 2

    Tex 23

    Phil 2

    Pitts 234

    Tor 4

    Clev 4

    SD 2

    STL/LAD 5 Under

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Sorry that didn't format right:

    Minn - 12

    NYY 2

    Tex 23

    Phil 2

    Pitts 234

    Tor 4

    Clev 4

    SD 2

    STL/LAD 5 Under

     
    Danrules24
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 12:03 PM ET #458

    Tuesday 5/28 system plays

    Dog EFF Score

    YTD 17-20, +.74 units

    Atl 105

    NYY 110

    Minn 110

    LAA 120

    Dog EFF

    YTD 43-38, +29.72 units

    All 2 units

    Atl 105

    Pitt 145

    System Plays

    YTD 132-155, +7.95 units

    Atl 105

    Pitt 145

    Hou 155

    Cubs 170

    Minn 110

    LAA 120

    NYY/Mets Under 6.5 -115

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Tuesday 5/28 system plays

    Dog EFF Score

    YTD 17-20, +.74 units

    Atl 105

    NYY 110

    Minn 110

    LAA 120

    Dog EFF

    YTD 43-38, +29.72 units

    All 2 units

    Atl 105

    Pitt 145

    System Plays

    YTD 132-155, +7.95 units

    Atl 105

    Pitt 145

    Hou 155

    Cubs 170

    Minn 110

    LAA 120

    NYY/Mets Under 6.5 -115

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 1:42 PM ET #459

    Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

    Hey Guys,

    Uploaded a new version to Google Docs - (V11) - same link.

    I revised the Divisional Underdog system so we will only bet Divisional Underdogs when the following is TRUE:

    Play all divisional road underdogs when home team is favored -116 to -149 OR-170 to -249
    Play all divisional home underdogs when road team is favored -106 to -154

    Per the article I posted those line ranges are positive ROI over the past 10 years

    DG



    I'm going to keep v10 active too, to compare what plays are different/same etc. and with units on flat bet/chase.  Plus, I like how the old DivUD was doing on 3g chases.  2 losses, one of which was caused by a rainout on game C, and Hou this past weekend.

    DeGen, also, do you have a problem pulling stats from TeamRanking.com?  I get the whole page but the info.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

    Hey Guys,

    Uploaded a new version to Google Docs - (V11) - same link.

    I revised the Divisional Underdog system so we will only bet Divisional Underdogs when the following is TRUE:

    Play all divisional road underdogs when home team is favored -116 to -149 OR-170 to -249
    Play all divisional home underdogs when road team is favored -106 to -154

    Per the article I posted those line ranges are positive ROI over the past 10 years

    DG



    I'm going to keep v10 active too, to compare what plays are different/same etc. and with units on flat bet/chase.  Plus, I like how the old DivUD was doing on 3g chases.  2 losses, one of which was caused by a rainout on game C, and Hou this past weekend.

    DeGen, also, do you have a problem pulling stats from TeamRanking.com?  I get the whole page but the info.

     
    DegenGamble
    DegenGamble
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 2:52 PM ET #460

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


    DeGen, also, do you have a problem pulling stats from TeamRanking.com?  I get the whole page but the info.

    Yeah teamrankings.com uses AJAX to render the page after it's loaded - so you can't use a typical excel web query - I found another way to grab the data from teamrankings.com - look thorugh my spreadsheets and more thread - there should be a teamrankings spreadhseet that I developed that has some sample code.  I probably could figure out how to do it the traditional way - but haven't spent much time on it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


    DeGen, also, do you have a problem pulling stats from TeamRanking.com?  I get the whole page but the info.

    Yeah teamrankings.com uses AJAX to render the page after it's loaded - so you can't use a typical excel web query - I found another way to grab the data from teamrankings.com - look thorugh my spreadsheets and more thread - there should be a teamrankings spreadhseet that I developed that has some sample code.  I probably could figure out how to do it the traditional way - but haven't spent much time on it.

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 5:13 PM ET #461

    Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

    Yeah teamrankings.com uses AJAX to render the page after it's loaded - so you can't use a typical excel web query - I found another way to grab the data from teamrankings.com - look thorugh my spreadsheets and more thread - there should be a teamrankings spreadhseet that I developed that has some sample code.  I probably could figure out how to do it the traditional way - but haven't spent much time on it.


    Thanx, DeGen.  It's a macro on JonnyMega's bottom 3 spreadsheet you made last year.  I was able to pull the data off the web site, and also adjust to the stats I want.  I've kept all the old spreadsheets on my desktop so I can go through them and rip them apart.  
    You've done a helluva job on these spreadsheets and it almost seems like people are spoiled!  Alot of these systems are money makers and to be able to once a day pull it up, hit update, place your bets is awesome.  I haven't seen many people say it but....AWESOME JOB, DEGEN!!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

    Yeah teamrankings.com uses AJAX to render the page after it's loaded - so you can't use a typical excel web query - I found another way to grab the data from teamrankings.com - look thorugh my spreadsheets and more thread - there should be a teamrankings spreadhseet that I developed that has some sample code.  I probably could figure out how to do it the traditional way - but haven't spent much time on it.


    Thanx, DeGen.  It's a macro on JonnyMega's bottom 3 spreadsheet you made last year.  I was able to pull the data off the web site, and also adjust to the stats I want.  I've kept all the old spreadsheets on my desktop so I can go through them and rip them apart.  
    You've done a helluva job on these spreadsheets and it almost seems like people are spoiled!  Alot of these systems are money makers and to be able to once a day pull it up, hit update, place your bets is awesome.  I haven't seen many people say it but....AWESOME JOB, DEGEN!!!
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 5:23 PM ET #462

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


    Thanx, DeGen.  It's a macro on JonnyMega's bottom 3 spreadsheet you made last year.  I was able to pull the data off the web site, and also adjust to the stats I want.  I've kept all the old spreadsheets on my desktop so I can go through them and rip them apart.  
    You've done a helluva job on these spreadsheets and it almost seems like people are spoiled!  Alot of these systems are money makers and to be able to once a day pull it up, hit update, place your bets is awesome.  I haven't seen many people say it but....AWESOME JOB, DEGEN!!!

    +1

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


    Thanx, DeGen.  It's a macro on JonnyMega's bottom 3 spreadsheet you made last year.  I was able to pull the data off the web site, and also adjust to the stats I want.  I've kept all the old spreadsheets on my desktop so I can go through them and rip them apart.  
    You've done a helluva job on these spreadsheets and it almost seems like people are spoiled!  Alot of these systems are money makers and to be able to once a day pull it up, hit update, place your bets is awesome.  I haven't seen many people say it but....AWESOME JOB, DEGEN!!!

    +1

     
    LaChupacabraj
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 5:49 PM ET #463

    I apologize for what may be a dumb question, as I have read through the thread and can't figure it out, but where on the spreadsheet do we find the Dog Eff Score and Dog Eff plays?  All I see are the System Plays.

    TIA
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    I apologize for what may be a dumb question, as I have read through the thread and can't figure it out, but where on the spreadsheet do we find the Dog Eff Score and Dog Eff plays?  All I see are the System Plays.

    TIA
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 7:00 PM ET #464

    Quote Originally Posted by LaChupacabraj:

    I apologize for what may be a dumb question, as I have read through the thread and can't figure it out, but where on the spreadsheet do we find the Dog Eff Score and Dog Eff plays?  All I see are the System Plays.

    TIA

    Are you running a current spreadsheet? Degen has made several changes and his latest is version 11. You can download that from the link in post 1.

    The columns for Dog EFF and Dog EFF Score start with column T. These won't show as plays, there needs to be a little human thought. For Dog EFF SCORE we are looking at the last two columns that show either a positive or neg number as dog and as fave. If I see any dog with a positive score and a fave with a negative score, it's a play for the Dog EFF Score system. Takes me just a minute to go through each game.

    For Dog EFF system, look at all the teams that qualify for any of the 4 systems (obviously not the Under system). If a qualifying team has an Overall Dog Eff and a Using Odss Dog Eff number of .400 or better in each column, I make it a play.

    Hope this helps.

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaChupacabraj:

    I apologize for what may be a dumb question, as I have read through the thread and can't figure it out, but where on the spreadsheet do we find the Dog Eff Score and Dog Eff plays?  All I see are the System Plays.

    TIA

    Are you running a current spreadsheet? Degen has made several changes and his latest is version 11. You can download that from the link in post 1.

    The columns for Dog EFF and Dog EFF Score start with column T. These won't show as plays, there needs to be a little human thought. For Dog EFF SCORE we are looking at the last two columns that show either a positive or neg number as dog and as fave. If I see any dog with a positive score and a fave with a negative score, it's a play for the Dog EFF Score system. Takes me just a minute to go through each game.

    For Dog EFF system, look at all the teams that qualify for any of the 4 systems (obviously not the Under system). If a qualifying team has an Overall Dog Eff and a Using Odss Dog Eff number of .400 or better in each column, I make it a play.

    Hope this helps.

     
    barrelrider
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 7:07 PM ET #465

    Hey Dan, really liking the spreadsheet. On post #451 you had the under in the cubs game as a loss. I think only 7 runs were scored so should that not be a win?
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    Hey Dan, really liking the spreadsheet. On post #451 you had the under in the cubs game as a loss. I think only 7 runs were scored so should that not be a win?
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 7:13 PM ET #466

    Quote Originally Posted by barrelrider:

    Hey Dan, really liking the spreadsheet. On post #451 you had the under in the cubs game as a loss. I think only 7 runs were scored so should that not be a win?

    Hey great catch, thanks. Sorry guys I messed that up. I had it correct on my sheet but posted wrong.

    I'll correct the YTD record and units after the games tonight.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barrelrider:

    Hey Dan, really liking the spreadsheet. On post #451 you had the under in the cubs game as a loss. I think only 7 runs were scored so should that not be a win?

    Hey great catch, thanks. Sorry guys I messed that up. I had it correct on my sheet but posted wrong.

    I'll correct the YTD record and units after the games tonight.

     
    barrelrider
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 7:26 PM ET #467

    Another question; Why are the cubs a system play today as they are going up against Sale, a top 20 rated pitcher in Sagerin?  Just trying to figure out all the nuances of this system as best I can. Thanks
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    Another question; Why are the cubs a system play today as they are going up against Sale, a top 20 rated pitcher in Sagerin?  Just trying to figure out all the nuances of this system as best I can. Thanks
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 28, 2013 - 7:31 PM ET #468

    Cubs fit under the Under 6 hit system. Last game of a series and they won the previous game while allowing 6 or fewer hits.
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    Cubs fit under the Under 6 hit system. Last game of a series and they won the previous game while allowing 6 or fewer hits.
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 29, 2013 - 1:12 AM ET #469

    Tuesday 5/28 results

    Dog EFF Score

    2-2, +.15 units

    YTD 19-22, +.89 units

    Atl 105 WIN

    NYY 110 Loss

    Minn 110 Win

    LAA 120 Loss

    Dog EFF

    2-0, +5 units

    YTD 45-38, +34.72 units

    All 2 units

    Atl 105 WIN

    Pitt 145 WIN

    System Plays

    4-2, +2.6 units

    YTD 137-156, +12.75 units

    Atl 105 WIN

    Pitt 145 WIN

    Hou 155 Loss

    Cubs 170 rain

    Minn 110 WIN

    LAA 120 Loss

    NYY/Mets Under 6.5 -115 WIN

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    Tuesday 5/28 results

    Dog EFF Score

    2-2, +.15 units

    YTD 19-22, +.89 units

    Atl 105 WIN

    NYY 110 Loss

    Minn 110 Win

    LAA 120 Loss

    Dog EFF

    2-0, +5 units

    YTD 45-38, +34.72 units

    All 2 units

    Atl 105 WIN

    Pitt 145 WIN

    System Plays

    4-2, +2.6 units

    YTD 137-156, +12.75 units

    Atl 105 WIN

    Pitt 145 WIN

    Hou 155 Loss

    Cubs 170 rain

    Minn 110 WIN

    LAA 120 Loss

    NYY/Mets Under 6.5 -115 WIN

     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 29, 2013 - 1:21 AM ET #470

    Degen, I've been tracking something starting on May 15. I've been looking at dogs that have a pitcher rated with a better Sagarin rating than the fave. I'm not considering C tier or even B tier pitchers for the most part, I did make a game with Liriano a play.

    Pretty interesting results so far. Total record is 18-20, but breaking this down to a filter of 10 ranking points you get this - Dog with +11 or more is 15-9 while 10 or less is 3-11.

    So, in this small sample size a dog with a starting pitcher ranked at least 10 higher than the fave has been a good play. I'll keep tabs on how this progresses, just thought I'd throw that out there.

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Degen, I've been tracking something starting on May 15. I've been looking at dogs that have a pitcher rated with a better Sagarin rating than the fave. I'm not considering C tier or even B tier pitchers for the most part, I did make a game with Liriano a play.

    Pretty interesting results so far. Total record is 18-20, but breaking this down to a filter of 10 ranking points you get this - Dog with +11 or more is 15-9 while 10 or less is 3-11.

    So, in this small sample size a dog with a starting pitcher ranked at least 10 higher than the fave has been a good play. I'll keep tabs on how this progresses, just thought I'd throw that out there.

     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: May. 29, 2013 - 1:22 AM ET #471

    ^^correction^^

    So, in this small sample size a dog with a starting pitcher ranked at least 10 higher than the fave has been a good play. I'll keep tabs on how this progresses, just thought I'd throw that out there.

    Should have read at least 11 higher.

     

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    ^^correction^^

    So, in this small sample size a dog with a starting pitcher ranked at least 10 higher than the fave has been a good play. I'll keep tabs on how this progresses, just thought I'd throw that out there.

    Should have read at least 11 higher.

     

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 29, 2013 - 6:57 AM ET #472

    DeGen, are all of the systems changed due to the article?  Cause on Ver 10, I have at Low ScrDog:  Philly and Pit, with Az at a possible UD under 6 hits.
    Under Ver 11, I have Hou at LSD.  At possible UD -6 hits:  Cin, Nym, Lad, Tor, Hou, Sea and Oak.
    Mlb UD are the same on both versions, and neither have anything on DivUD (expected, no div games)
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    DeGen, are all of the systems changed due to the article?  Cause on Ver 10, I have at Low ScrDog:  Philly and Pit, with Az at a possible UD under 6 hits.
    Under Ver 11, I have Hou at LSD.  At possible UD -6 hits:  Cin, Nym, Lad, Tor, Hou, Sea and Oak.
    Mlb UD are the same on both versions, and neither have anything on DivUD (expected, no div games)
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 29, 2013 - 7:00 AM ET #473

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

    DeGen, are all of the systems changed due to the article?  Cause on Ver 10, I have at Low ScrDog:  Philly and Pit, with Az at a possible UD under 6 hits.
    Under Ver 11, I have Hou at LSD.  At possible UD -6 hits:  Cin, Nym, Lad, Tor, Hou, Sea and Oak.
    Mlb UD are the same on both versions, and neither have anything on DivUD (expected, no div games)
    Ok, bizarre.  I hadn't taken the 2 out of the hits column before I posted.  I did that, hit refresh odds, and Ver 11 changed to what Ver 10 had.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

    DeGen, are all of the systems changed due to the article?  Cause on Ver 10, I have at Low ScrDog:  Philly and Pit, with Az at a possible UD under 6 hits.
    Under Ver 11, I have Hou at LSD.  At possible UD -6 hits:  Cin, Nym, Lad, Tor, Hou, Sea and Oak.
    Mlb UD are the same on both versions, and neither have anything on DivUD (expected, no div games)
    Ok, bizarre.  I hadn't taken the 2 out of the hits column before I posted.  I did that, hit refresh odds, and Ver 11 changed to what Ver 10 had.
     
    DegenGamble
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    Posted: May. 29, 2013 - 10:03 AM ET #474

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

    Ok, bizarre.  I hadn't taken the 2 out of the hits column before I posted.  I did that, hit refresh odds, and Ver 11 changed to what Ver 10 had.

    The only thing I changed in V11 was Divisional Underdogs - are both versions still showing different plays?
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

    Ok, bizarre.  I hadn't taken the 2 out of the hits column before I posted.  I did that, hit refresh odds, and Ver 11 changed to what Ver 10 had.

    The only thing I changed in V11 was Divisional Underdogs - are both versions still showing different plays?
     
     
    DegenGamble
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    Posted: May. 29, 2013 - 10:06 AM ET #475

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    ^^correction^^

    So, in this small sample size a dog with a starting pitcher ranked at least 10 higher than the fave has been a good play. I'll keep tabs on how this progresses, just thought I'd throw that out there.

    Should have read at least 11 higher.

     


    GREAT STUFF DANRULES! 

    This is the whole intent of the thread - figure out filters and angles to make these systems really rock!


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    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    ^^correction^^

    So, in this small sample size a dog with a starting pitcher ranked at least 10 higher than the fave has been a good play. I'll keep tabs on how this progresses, just thought I'd throw that out there.

    Should have read at least 11 higher.

     


    GREAT STUFF DANRULES! 

    This is the whole intent of the thread - figure out filters and angles to make these systems really rock!


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