Posted:
#326
This is what I have so far:
TEX/DET OVER
OAK/TB UNDER
BOS/TOR OVER
CLE/KC UNDER
AZ/FLA UNDER
MIL/HOU UNDER
CHC/STL UNDER
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MLB system releases...
Posted:
#330
I would go with his plays since he knows the system better. That is what I came up with and should probably make it a no play. It depends on what numbers you use such as current season/career/situational and even what formula is used. Well see how it plays out. Some of it is gut feeling after watching both pitchers this season, I watch too much baseball....
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Posted:
#332
I did well this weekend. I am trying to make a very steady payout from my bookie. All this school and finding out I am getting a bigger return with sportsbooks than stocks...
Anyways results for tonight were mixed
AZ/FLA UNDER 8 push
CHI/STL UNDER 9 
TEX/DET OVER 10.5
OAK/TB UNDER 10(biggest play for me)
(biggest play for me)CLE/KC UNDER 8.5(bad beat but great game)
(bad beat but great game)MIL/HOU UNDER 9.5
3-2-1 not a perfect night but I have been staying above 60% early on with this systems
Thanks once again to Sports Network for introducing the system this is his work, I am just following along the idea. BOL
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Posted:
#333
[Quote: Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent] I did well this weekend. I am trying to make a very steady payout from my bookie. All this school and finding out I am getting a bigger return with sportsbooks than stocks...
Anyways results for tonight were mixed
AZ/FLA UNDER 8 push
CHI/STL UNDER 9
TEX/DET OVER 10.5
OAK/TB UNDER 10(biggest play for me)
(biggest play for me)CLE/KC UNDER 8.5(bad beat but great game)
(bad beat but great game)MIL/HOU UNDER 9.5
3-2-1 not a perfect night but I have been staying above 60% early on with this systems
Thanks once again to Sports Network for introducing the system this is his work, I am just following along the idea. BOL
[/Q
Congratulations on your MIL/HOU under play, this was a borderline lean towards the over, based on hamilton being a lefty, your handicapping skills, and situational play, pushed it the other way, in your behalf, and brought home a win; good work on this play...
Remember, the reasoning behind the un-cut version being published, is to identify the 70% success ratio within-in all games available for action..Yesterday you had 15 games, 10wins would have given you 70% the un-cut version produced 9 , which means in essence, had the handicapper produced the correct final cut, he would have went 9-1 , as an example, with my understanding of the system, I went 7-3 on my personal wagers after cutting 5 teams..Base_Runs should always be looked at as a "tool" to bring 70% winning ratio to the forefront, the "cut" is where the handicappers skills comes into effect, where the most important part of the formula is initiated..FAQ why not post 'your' cut version? I already have; in the form of 16 phases, and 100 cut plays..what purpose would it serve? other than doing handicapping work with performance for others, that's not the objective in the Base_Runs experiment...Your inside, continue 
.......later
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Posted:
#334
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:
I did well this weekend. I am trying to make a very steady payout from my bookie. All this school and finding out I am getting a bigger return with sportsbooks than stocks...
I did well this weekend. I am trying to make a very steady payout from my bookie. All this school and finding out I am getting a bigger return with sportsbooks than stocks...
Anyways results for tonight were mixed
AZ/FLA UNDER 8 push
CHI/STL UNDER 9
TEX/DET OVER 10.5
OAK/TB UNDER 10(biggest play for me)
(biggest play for me)CLE/KC UNDER 8.5(bad beat but great game)
(bad beat but great game)MIL/HOU UNDER 9.5
3-2-1 not a perfect night but I have been staying above 60% early on with this systems
Thanks once again to Sports Network for introducing the system this is his work, I am just following along the idea. BOL
Where did you get data for OAK/TB????? That was for me NO PLAY game, because I can get data enough :( And it wasn't the only game yestreday.
"No data, perhaps the minimum PA's are too high?"
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Posted:
#336
Quote Originally Posted by uzovka77:
Where did you get data for OAK/TB????? That was for me NO PLAY game, because I can get data enough :( And it wasn't the only game yestreday.
"No data, perhaps the minimum PA's are too high?"
Where did you get data for OAK/TB????? That was for me NO PLAY game, because I can get data enough :( And it wasn't the only game yestreday.
"No data, perhaps the minimum PA's are too high?"
Oak is one of the lowest RC/BR teams. Shields has had great success against them with a very low number there as well. I did not have alot of info with Outman against TB but he has been really good this season so far...
Some of the plays that I get are not all based on BR/RC but most of it originates from them tho. Its just a huge asset to start with!
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Posted:
#337
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:
Oak is one of the lowest RC/BR teams. Shields has had great success against them with a very low number there as well. I did not have alot of info with Outman against TB but he has been really good this season so far...
Some of the plays that I get are not all based on BR/RC but most of it originates from them tho. Its just a huge asset to start with!
My problem was Outman!!! No info :( I like to work on
baseball-reference.com
So I really don't know, if this game was without info for one starting pitcher the "strongest" :(
Anyway...thanks for answer and GL
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Posted:
#338
MLB system releases Wed,05/20/09: un-cut version BR/RC
Reds-119
Nationals-131
Braves-147
Marlins-144 (Volstad)
Astro's+105
Giants+123
BlueJays+104
DevilRays-173
Twins+105
Cubs vs Cardinals UNDER 9
Rangers vs Tigers OVER 8.5
Orioles vs Yankees UNDER 11.5
Indians vs Royals UNDER 9.5
LAA vs Mariners UNDER 9.5
gp:14
projected wins:9
success ratio:70%
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Posted:
#339
sports_Network and HeaVin-Cent or anyone active in the thread,
I have been doing several different computations with these formulas for a few days to test the system.
I have several questions to see how you compute you systems.
**Using yesterday's Florida Marlins lineup with today's starting pitcher as an example:
1. When doing RC for team totals, I have 3 different #s that I potentially look at:
RC/G=4.29 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=4.21 (RC divided by # of games played in 2009) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=5.18 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) Yesterday's starting lineup plus today's starting pitcher. (total of 9 players in lineup) 2009 totals.
All four averaged together = 4.56
Which set of numbers do you look at?
Do you use the same #s or do you use career #s vs SP?
When doing RC, do you incorporate the effect of the SP? If so, how? I have been looking at incorporating the SP's ERA (2009 totals, career total and career vs starting lineup)
2. When choosing a team side, I have been doing BR for the starting lineup (2009 totals for each player including today's starting pitcher). I then do BR for the Starting pitcher (2009 totals) and average the #s (SP vs Opposing team). The larger of the two #s is my play.
I realize some of you do career #s. When calculating BR, we have 3 different #s to potentially look at.
*Total career #s for the pitcher vs Total career #s for the opposing lineup.
*2009 #s for the pitcher vs 2009 #s for the opposing lineup.
*Career #s against the starting lineup for the pitcher.
Which do you prefer?
Any information that you may concede will be greatly appreciated!
I have been doing several different computations with these formulas for a few days to test the system.
I have several questions to see how you compute you systems.
**Using yesterday's Florida Marlins lineup with today's starting pitcher as an example:
1. When doing RC for team totals, I have 3 different #s that I potentially look at:
RC/G=4.29 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=4.21 (RC divided by # of games played in 2009) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=5.18 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) Yesterday's starting lineup plus today's starting pitcher. (total of 9 players in lineup) 2009 totals.
All four averaged together = 4.56
Which set of numbers do you look at?
Do you use the same #s or do you use career #s vs SP?
When doing RC, do you incorporate the effect of the SP? If so, how? I have been looking at incorporating the SP's ERA (2009 totals, career total and career vs starting lineup)
2. When choosing a team side, I have been doing BR for the starting lineup (2009 totals for each player including today's starting pitcher). I then do BR for the Starting pitcher (2009 totals) and average the #s (SP vs Opposing team). The larger of the two #s is my play.
I realize some of you do career #s. When calculating BR, we have 3 different #s to potentially look at.
*Total career #s for the pitcher vs Total career #s for the opposing lineup.
*2009 #s for the pitcher vs 2009 #s for the opposing lineup.
*Career #s against the starting lineup for the pitcher.
Which do you prefer?
Any information that you may concede will be greatly appreciated!
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Posted:
#340
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:
sports_Network and HeaVin-Cent or anyone active in the thread,
I have been doing several different computations with these formulas for a few days to test the system.
I have several questions to see how you compute your systems.
**Using yesterday's Florida Marlins lineup with today's starting pitcher as an example:
1. When doing RC for team totals, I have 3 different #s that I potentially look at:
RC/G=4.29 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=4.21 (RC divided by # of games played in 2009) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=5.18 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) Yesterday's starting lineup plus today's starting pitcher. (total of 9 players in lineup) 2009 totals.
All 3 averaged together = 4.56
Which set of numbers do you look at?
Do you use the same #s or do you use career #s vs SP?
When doing RC, do you incorporate the effect of the SP? If so, how? I have been looking at incorporating the SP's ERA (2009 totals, career total and career vs starting lineup)
2. When choosing a team side, I have been doing BR for the starting lineup (2009 totals for each player including today's starting pitcher). I then do BR for the Starting pitcher (2009 totals) and average the #s (SP vs Opposing team). The larger of the two #s is my play.
I realize some of you do career #s. When calculating BR, we have 3 different #s to potentially look at.
*Total career #s for the pitcher vs Total career #s for the opposing lineup.
*2009 #s for the pitcher vs 2009 #s for the opposing lineup.
*Career #s against the starting lineup for the pitcher.
Which do you prefer?
Any information that you may concede will be greatly appreciated!
sports_Network and HeaVin-Cent or anyone active in the thread,
I have been doing several different computations with these formulas for a few days to test the system.
I have several questions to see how you compute your systems.
**Using yesterday's Florida Marlins lineup with today's starting pitcher as an example:
1. When doing RC for team totals, I have 3 different #s that I potentially look at:
RC/G=4.29 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=4.21 (RC divided by # of games played in 2009) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=5.18 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) Yesterday's starting lineup plus today's starting pitcher. (total of 9 players in lineup) 2009 totals.
All 3 averaged together = 4.56
Which set of numbers do you look at?
Do you use the same #s or do you use career #s vs SP?
When doing RC, do you incorporate the effect of the SP? If so, how? I have been looking at incorporating the SP's ERA (2009 totals, career total and career vs starting lineup)
2. When choosing a team side, I have been doing BR for the starting lineup (2009 totals for each player including today's starting pitcher). I then do BR for the Starting pitcher (2009 totals) and average the #s (SP vs Opposing team). The larger of the two #s is my play.
I realize some of you do career #s. When calculating BR, we have 3 different #s to potentially look at.
*Total career #s for the pitcher vs Total career #s for the opposing lineup.
*2009 #s for the pitcher vs 2009 #s for the opposing lineup.
*Career #s against the starting lineup for the pitcher.
Which do you prefer?
Any information that you may concede will be greatly appreciated!
a few typos...
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great work and some good questions are really starting to help.All I need is more time to do my own work,but appreciate you all putting your posts up for the rest of us slow followers
to learn.
hog 
Posted:
#343
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:
sports_Network and HeaVin-Cent or anyone active in the thread,
I have been doing several different computations with these formulas for a few days to test the system.
I have several questions to see how you compute you systems.
**Using yesterday's Florida Marlins lineup with today's starting pitcher as an example:
1. When doing RC for team totals, I have 3 different #s that I potentially look at:
RC/G=4.29 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=4.21 (RC divided by # of games played in 2009) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=5.18 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) Yesterday's starting lineup plus today's starting pitcher. (total of 9 players in lineup) 2009 totals.
All four averaged together = 4.56
Which set of numbers do you look at?
Do you use the same #s or do you use career #s vs SP?
When doing RC, do you incorporate the effect of the SP? If so, how? I have been looking at incorporating the SP's ERA (2009 totals, career total and career vs starting lineup)
2. When choosing a team side, I have been doing BR for the starting lineup (2009 totals for each player including today's starting pitcher). I then do BR for the Starting pitcher (2009 totals) and average the #s (SP vs Opposing team). The larger of the two #s is my play.
I realize some of you do career #s. When calculating BR, we have 3 different #s to potentially look at.
*Total career #s for the pitcher vs Total career #s for the opposing lineup.
*2009 #s for the pitcher vs 2009 #s for the opposing lineup.
*Career #s against the starting lineup for the pitcher.
Which do you prefer?
Any information that you may concede will be greatly appreciated!
sports_Network and HeaVin-Cent or anyone active in the thread,
I have been doing several different computations with these formulas for a few days to test the system.
I have several questions to see how you compute you systems.
**Using yesterday's Florida Marlins lineup with today's starting pitcher as an example:
1. When doing RC for team totals, I have 3 different #s that I potentially look at:
RC/G=4.29 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=4.21 (RC divided by # of games played in 2009) 2009 totals for the entire team
RC/G=5.18 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) Yesterday's starting lineup plus today's starting pitcher. (total of 9 players in lineup) 2009 totals.
All four averaged together = 4.56
Which set of numbers do you look at?
Do you use the same #s or do you use career #s vs SP?
When doing RC, do you incorporate the effect of the SP? If so, how? I have been looking at incorporating the SP's ERA (2009 totals, career total and career vs starting lineup)
2. When choosing a team side, I have been doing BR for the starting lineup (2009 totals for each player including today's starting pitcher). I then do BR for the Starting pitcher (2009 totals) and average the #s (SP vs Opposing team). The larger of the two #s is my play.
I realize some of you do career #s. When calculating BR, we have 3 different #s to potentially look at.
*Total career #s for the pitcher vs Total career #s for the opposing lineup.
*2009 #s for the pitcher vs 2009 #s for the opposing lineup.
*Career #s against the starting lineup for the pitcher.
Which do you prefer?
Any information that you may concede will be greatly appreciated!
it's clearly indicated in both BR and RC formula's to always incorporate "career" stats, with an emphasis on the present season. everything else appears to be in form
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Posted:
#346
Hi everybody.
Here is something I'm using for fast calculation.
https://www.4shared.com/file/106682150/90db7f4c/BR-RC-BattR.html
Calculate basic formula for each team takes me about 1 minute, if I've got #s ready to put to the excel tab. In that file is couple of formulas (BR,RN and BattingRuns). Calculation is pretty easy (just put the #s for VISITOR and HOME team on the top of the page blue highligted) and fast. There are all formulas and definitions. All cells are defined, so you don't need nothing else, than put the numbers and you can see runs for each team and total.
Here looks everything fine, but......
The finel score is different for each used formula.
So now I can ask you boys for some help and discussion, how to make that calculator fine and more accurate. I'm looking forward to reading any answer ASAP
Here is something I'm using for fast calculation.
https://www.4shared.com/file/106682150/90db7f4c/BR-RC-BattR.html
Calculate basic formula for each team takes me about 1 minute, if I've got #s ready to put to the excel tab. In that file is couple of formulas (BR,RN and BattingRuns). Calculation is pretty easy (just put the #s for VISITOR and HOME team on the top of the page blue highligted) and fast. There are all formulas and definitions. All cells are defined, so you don't need nothing else, than put the numbers and you can see runs for each team and total.
Here looks everything fine, but......
The finel score is different for each used formula.
So now I can ask you boys for some help and discussion, how to make that calculator fine and more accurate. I'm looking forward to reading any answer ASAP
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Posted:
#347
I think my numbers are off today.... I have opposites with a few games
BAL/NYY OVER
TEX/DET OVER
MIN/CHW OVER
LAA/SEA UNDER
As for KC/CLE for the offenses I have it at about 10 but the pitching is 6 and vs each other around 13. my total would be around 10... may make it a no play.
NYY - off = 11
pit = 9.1
vs = 17???
Need to figure these games out.
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Posted:
#348
Here are my #s for the 5:10 game
Dbacks 3.91 runs
Marlins 4.75 runs
This is career offensive for the current lineups. Base_Runs
Career pitching for SP. Base_Runs
2009 totals for pen. Base_Runs
Which using the Pythagorean Expectation for win %, it gives a value of 63.67%.
63.67% is equal to -175 ML
My line is -140 ML
Value with the Fish?
Fish 1st 5 -140
Fish Game -140
GL to everyone
Dbacks 3.91 runs
Marlins 4.75 runs
This is career offensive for the current lineups. Base_Runs
Career pitching for SP. Base_Runs
2009 totals for pen. Base_Runs
Which using the Pythagorean Expectation for win %, it gives a value of 63.67%.
63.67% is equal to -175 ML
My line is -140 ML
Value with the Fish?
Fish 1st 5 -140
Fish Game -140
GL to everyone
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Posted:
#349
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:
Here are my #s for the 5:10 game
Dbacks 3.91 runs
Marlins 4.75 runs
This is career offensive for the current lineups. Base_Runs
Career pitching for SP. Base_Runs
2009 totals for pen. Base_Runs
Which using the Pythagorean Expectation for win %, it gives a value of 63.67%.
63.67% is equal to -175 ML
My line is -140 ML
Value with the Fish?
Fish 1st 5 -140
Fish Game -140
GL to everyone
Here are my #s for the 5:10 game
Dbacks 3.91 runs
Marlins 4.75 runs
This is career offensive for the current lineups. Base_Runs
Career pitching for SP. Base_Runs
2009 totals for pen. Base_Runs
Which using the Pythagorean Expectation for win %, it gives a value of 63.67%.
63.67% is equal to -175 ML
My line is -140 ML
Value with the Fish?
Fish 1st 5 -140
Fish Game -140
GL to everyone
Looks like you have a play with them. I personally am not to good with sides. Will take RL when I see a mismatch so I could lower the juice and in some cases get a +line. Will be pulling for you!!
I do not factor pen in too much. Trying to keep it simple as possible because I do not have much time to do all the work.
BOL to all
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