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MLB Over chase 90-0

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Posted: #1

Simple concept, at the start of the season do up to a 5 game chase on each team to get one OVER. The last 3 years this went a combined 90-0 (148-2 over 5 years, both losses won on game 6). Pushes are considered a no play

In the last 3 years the results:

A 53-37

B 18-19

C 12-7

D 3-4

E 4-0

Might be a good way to pocket 30 or more units in the first week.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Simple concept, at the start of the season do up to a 5 game chase on each team to get one OVER. The last 3 years this went a combined 90-0 (148-2 over 5 years, both losses won on game 6). Pushes are considered a no play

In the last 3 years the results:

A 53-37

B 18-19

C 12-7

D 3-4

E 4-0

Might be a good way to pocket 30 or more units in the first week.


What's your bet unit?
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by cdburgess:


What's your bet unit?

I'm pretty conservative and use only 1% of my bankroll as a unit. I guess it's whatever you are comfortable with. If all teams come through, I'm up 30% on my bankroll in a week. Not too bad.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #4

So are you putting 2 units on each game involving teams that have yet to go over?

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by bruin95:

So are you putting 2 units on each game involving teams that have yet to go over?

Yes one for each team.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #6
In 2012, if you chased first five games for each team to get one OVER, it went 30-0.

If you chased first five games for each team to get one UNDER, it also went 30-0.

After the All-Star break, the OVER chase went 29-1.

After the All-Star break, the UNDER chase went 30-0.

All combined went 119-1 last year.
 
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Posted: #7
St. Louis pushed their first game after the ASB and then had 7 UNDERS in a row before an OVER.  That was the only loss.  That one loss is equal to approximately 50 units.

The return last year would be just under +70 units.
 
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Posted: #8
Interesting. Anyone really going to play this?
All about the chase
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by flwareagle:

In 2012, if you chased first five games for each team to get one OVER, it went 30-0.

If you chased first five games for each team to get one UNDER, it also went 30-0.

After the All-Star break, the OVER chase went 29-1.

After the All-Star break, the UNDER chase went 30-0.

All combined went 119-1 last year.

Any info on the UNDER chase for the past several years?
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by JVHeel:


Any info on the UNDER chase for the past several years?

There were 2 losses in 2011 and 1 in 2009. So, 147-3 to start the year for UNDERS over the last 5 years compared to 148-2 for the OVERS. The Mets had a 12 game over streak to start 2011 with a Push in there.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by flwareagle:

St. Louis pushed their first game after the ASB and then had 7 UNDERS in a row before an OVER.  That was the only loss.  That one loss is equal to approximately 50 units.

The return last year would be just under +70 units.


How would that be possible?  You can't play both at the same time and profit.  You would have to start with either the overs or unders then switch to the other.  So you wouldn't be at 70 units. 
 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:



How would that be possible?  You can't play both at the same time and profit.  You would have to start with either the overs or unders then switch to the other.  So you wouldn't be at 70 units. 

What if you bet overs at one book and unders at another? Both chases could hit. You'd lose money on game 1 though since you are betting both sides. Maybe the play is bet the opposite chase after game 1??? I think I'll stick with OVERS from start of season. Nice and easy.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #13

After the All-star break Overs are 89-1 for the last 3 years with STL as the loss last year as previously mentioned.

Only 10 of these 90 chases went to 4 games  with only 4 of those 10 going to game 5.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by jaime2309:

Interesting. Anyone really going to play this?

I think I'll give this a go for the Overs to start the season. Have to do something until the RPI system starts up in May.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

There were 2 losses in 2011 and 1 in 2009. So, 147-3 to start the year for UNDERS over the last 5 years compared to 148-2 for the OVERS. The Mets had a 12 game over streak to start 2011 with a Push in there.

Thanks, Dan!
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

After the All-star break Overs are 89-1 for the last 3 years with STL as the loss last year as previously mentioned.

Only 10 of these 90 chases went to 4 games  with only 4 of those 10 going to game 5.


Do you know how many of the opening season OVER chases went to 4 and 5 games?
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by JVHeel:


Do you know how many of the opening season OVER chases went to 4 and 5 games?

Over the last 3 years 7 games went to game 4, 4 of those to game 5, all winners.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #18
Thanks. Giving very serious consideration to this one...
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I think I'll give this a go for the Overs to start the season. Have to do something until the RPI system starts up in May.


What's the RPI system?
 
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Posted: #20
Are you increasing your bet 1 unit each time you chase a game?
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by cdburgess:


What's the RPI system?

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101307405&page=1

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by cjm2008:

Are you increasing your bet 1 unit each time you chase a game?

Yes, make up what you lost plus 1 unit.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101307405&page=1


I want in on this when you start please!
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by cdburgess:


I want in on this when you start please!

Not my system. It is Bettor2Win running the system, I was just a happy follower.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
 
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Posted: #25
I was in the middle of back testing 2011 when I got to the Mets.  I stopped and went to work.

Still, good find Dan!  I am definitely going to use some version of this this year.  Thanks.
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