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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    MLB early season dogs

    123456 Next Last»
    Danrules24
    sports_Network
    oilcountry99
    kenkean89
    jenjay23
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    123456 Next Last»
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 2:56 AM ET #1

    Underdogs seem to do better early in the season, so I had an idea to take advantage of that. I will run a labby line for each MLB team. The line will be 2 numbers consisting of 1/2 unit each, 1 unit total. Bet each team when they are an underdog getting odds of even to +169. Any game over +170 is a no play. 

    If the team wins the first game as a dog, they are done. We bank the 1+ unit for that team and then forget them. If game 1 is a loss we bet 1.5 units the next time they qualify. A loss on game 2 would have our line look like this: .5-.5-1-1.5, so the next game would be a 2 unit wager. We keep going with a team until we have at least a 1/2 unit profit or the system has reached its goal. 

    My goal is at least 20 units in April. If we hit 20 and have a couple of teams left, we will just take our profit and call it. No need to bet deep into a line when we already have done well. Back tested for 2015, 2014 and 2013. All 3 years were very successful with 2 hitting the goal in April. The 3rd year we would have been at 16 units. 

    I will show all the lines for each team and bets for each day. I will remove the teams we won on already and have them on a list below the remaining teams showing their profit. 

    This won't be a huge money maker but adding 20+ units in April is pretty good. All bets will be shown in units not dollar amounts. Everyone can set their own amounts based on their bankroll. If you have a $1,000 bankroll and can safely use $10 as a unit size (1%) a 20 unit gain is $200 or 20% of bankroll. 
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Underdogs seem to do better early in the season, so I had an idea to take advantage of that. I will run a labby line for each MLB team. The line will be 2 numbers consisting of 1/2 unit each, 1 unit total. Bet each team when they are an underdog getting odds of even to +169. Any game over +170 is a no play. 

    If the team wins the first game as a dog, they are done. We bank the 1+ unit for that team and then forget them. If game 1 is a loss we bet 1.5 units the next time they qualify. A loss on game 2 would have our line look like this: .5-.5-1-1.5, so the next game would be a 2 unit wager. We keep going with a team until we have at least a 1/2 unit profit or the system has reached its goal. 

    My goal is at least 20 units in April. If we hit 20 and have a couple of teams left, we will just take our profit and call it. No need to bet deep into a line when we already have done well. Back tested for 2015, 2014 and 2013. All 3 years were very successful with 2 hitting the goal in April. The 3rd year we would have been at 16 units. 

    I will show all the lines for each team and bets for each day. I will remove the teams we won on already and have them on a list below the remaining teams showing their profit. 

    This won't be a huge money maker but adding 20+ units in April is pretty good. All bets will be shown in units not dollar amounts. Everyone can set their own amounts based on their bankroll. If you have a $1,000 bankroll and can safely use $10 as a unit size (1%) a 20 unit gain is $200 or 20% of bankroll. 
     
    sports_Network
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 6:14 AM ET #2

    a unit is a unit that's a unit...go for it. the results should be interesting...
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    a unit is a unit that's a unit...go for it. the results should be interesting...
     
    oilcountry99
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 9:01 AM ET #3

    Dan, I like the concept, and with MLB dogs it should work very well. I've done something similar in the past with each team having a line, mind you it was a different system with different goals but same idea, worked out well and was fun to play.

    Might tail on this one, seeing as its only a month

    Good luck!
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    Dan, I like the concept, and with MLB dogs it should work very well. I've done something similar in the past with each team having a line, mind you it was a different system with different goals but same idea, worked out well and was fun to play.

    Might tail on this one, seeing as its only a month

    Good luck!
     
    kenkean89
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 9:32 AM ET #4

    Good strategy, I like it and will follow....
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    Good strategy, I like it and will follow....
     
    jenjay23
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 11:53 AM ET #5

    Good luck. Sounds like a good concept and look forward to see the results after a month.
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    Good luck. Sounds like a good concept and look forward to see the results after a month.
     
    sfg8
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    Posted: Mar. 27, 2016 - 3:21 PM ET #6

    I thnk ive seen something similar for nfl o/ u .. From start of seasn u bet evry gm over til it hets then take the profit til u hit each team.. It's been winning but not sure how many seasns in a row..
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    I thnk ive seen something similar for nfl o/ u .. From start of seasn u bet evry gm over til it hets then take the profit til u hit each team.. It's been winning but not sure how many seasns in a row..
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2016 - 8:16 PM ET #7

    We start Sunday and it is looking like plays on TB and KC, possibly Pitt. Will update plays and lines Sunday morning.

    Labby lines look like this (hope it formats ok):

    • ATL .5 -.5
    • AZ   .5 -.5
    • CIN  .5 -.5
    • COL .5 -.5
    • CUBS .5 -.5
    • LAD .5 -.5
    • MIA .5 -.5
    • MIL .5 -.5
    • NYM .5 -.5
    • PHI .5 -.5
    • PIT .5 -.5
    • SD .5 -.5
    • SF .5 -.5
    • STL .5 -.5
    • WAS .5 -.5
    • BAL .5 -.5
    • BOS .5 -.5
    • CHISOX .5 -.5
    • CLE .5 -.5
    • DET .5 -.5
    • HOU .5 -.5
    • KC .5 -.5
    • LAA .5 -.5
    • MIN .5 -.5
    • NYY .5 -.5
    • OAK .5 -.5
    • SEA .5 -.5
    • TB .5 -.5
    • TEX .5 -.5
    • TOR .5 -.5
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    We start Sunday and it is looking like plays on TB and KC, possibly Pitt. Will update plays and lines Sunday morning.

    Labby lines look like this (hope it formats ok):

    • ATL .5 -.5
    • AZ   .5 -.5
    • CIN  .5 -.5
    • COL .5 -.5
    • CUBS .5 -.5
    • LAD .5 -.5
    • MIA .5 -.5
    • MIL .5 -.5
    • NYM .5 -.5
    • PHI .5 -.5
    • PIT .5 -.5
    • SD .5 -.5
    • SF .5 -.5
    • STL .5 -.5
    • WAS .5 -.5
    • BAL .5 -.5
    • BOS .5 -.5
    • CHISOX .5 -.5
    • CLE .5 -.5
    • DET .5 -.5
    • HOU .5 -.5
    • KC .5 -.5
    • LAA .5 -.5
    • MIN .5 -.5
    • NYY .5 -.5
    • OAK .5 -.5
    • SEA .5 -.5
    • TB .5 -.5
    • TEX .5 -.5
    • TOR .5 -.5
     
    chaser15
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    Posted: Apr. 2, 2016 - 12:33 AM ET #8

    Hey Dan, have played the dog system your wanting to play with success (particularly in early season), but with two different twists and have easily met the goal you desire. First, I filter out all dogs at +150 and under (a little lower than what you are considering). Secondly, I chase each team on a straight marty with my "A" bet being a 1unit wager, then place all subsequent wagers as "to win" amounts (to re-coup previous loss plus gain desired "win" amount). Obviously, the "punch" is in the A bet, but the subsequent MM strategy keeps the risk adverse in the chase by taking advantage of the plus money, and thus, not cutting too deep into BR whilst chasing that ever-elusive unit. I employ this strategy through the first 4 or 5 series (til I hit 30units), then drop the initial wager to .25unit (as the capping gets sharper) and ride it out through the rest of the season.GL with your endeavor, and thanks for all you're contributions!
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    Hey Dan, have played the dog system your wanting to play with success (particularly in early season), but with two different twists and have easily met the goal you desire. First, I filter out all dogs at +150 and under (a little lower than what you are considering). Secondly, I chase each team on a straight marty with my "A" bet being a 1unit wager, then place all subsequent wagers as "to win" amounts (to re-coup previous loss plus gain desired "win" amount). Obviously, the "punch" is in the A bet, but the subsequent MM strategy keeps the risk adverse in the chase by taking advantage of the plus money, and thus, not cutting too deep into BR whilst chasing that ever-elusive unit. I employ this strategy through the first 4 or 5 series (til I hit 30units), then drop the initial wager to .25unit (as the capping gets sharper) and ride it out through the rest of the season.GL with your endeavor, and thanks for all you're contributions!
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 2, 2016 - 1:33 AM ET #9

    Hey Chaser, thanks for the input that's very interesting. I may track your method on the side to see how I like it as an idea for next year or maybe continuing after I wrap up this system. 

    I may only bet dogs this year. Trying to bet faves especially on a chase is brutal. Between this and the L4 Dog system, I'm hoping to increase my bankroll 30-40% by end of May. Heck I might take the rest of the summer off if I can do that!  
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Hey Chaser, thanks for the input that's very interesting. I may track your method on the side to see how I like it as an idea for next year or maybe continuing after I wrap up this system. 

    I may only bet dogs this year. Trying to bet faves especially on a chase is brutal. Between this and the L4 Dog system, I'm hoping to increase my bankroll 30-40% by end of May. Heck I might take the rest of the summer off if I can do that!  
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2016 - 5:35 AM ET #10

    Sunday, STL +115, KC +113. One unit bet each. 

    Will be back later in day for the other game. Tor/TB keeps going back and forth. 
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Sunday, STL +115, KC +113. One unit bet each. 

    Will be back later in day for the other game. Tor/TB keeps going back and forth. 
     
    kenkean89
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2016 - 10:36 AM ET #11

    Good luck to all playing, lets get it....
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    Good luck to all playing, lets get it....
     
    BaseballChaser
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2016 - 11:25 AM ET #12

    Good luck Dan. Like the sounds of it
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    Good luck Dan. Like the sounds of it
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2016 - 1:02 PM ET #13

    I got Toronto at +106. Bet 1 unit. 
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    I got Toronto at +106. Bet 1 unit. 
     
    ERBATIZ
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2016 - 12:29 AM ET #14

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    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2016 - 12:33 AM ET #15

    Sunday results: Wins on KC (1.13 units) and Tor (1.06) with a loss on STL.

    YTD: +1.19 units

  • ATL .5 -.5
  • AZ   .5 -.5
  • CIN  .5 -.5
  • COL .5 -.5
  • CUBS .5 -.5
  • LAD .5 -.5
  • MIA .5 -.5
  • MIL .5 -.5
  • NYM .5 -.5
  • PHI .5 -.5
  • PIT .5 -.5
  • SD .5 -.5
  • SF .5 -.5
  • STL .5 -.5 - 1 
  • WAS .5 -.5
  • BAL .5 -.5
  • BOS .5 -.5
  • CHISOX .5 -.5
  • CLE .5 -.5
  • DET .5 -.5
  • HOU .5 -.5
  • LAA .5 -.5
  • MIN .5 -.5
  • NYY .5 -.5
  • OAK .5 -.5
  • SEA .5 -.5
  • TB .5 -.5
  • TEX .5 -.5
  • Eliminated

    • KC +1.13
    • TOR +1.06
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Sunday results: Wins on KC (1.13 units) and Tor (1.06) with a loss on STL.

    YTD: +1.19 units

  • ATL .5 -.5
  • AZ   .5 -.5
  • CIN  .5 -.5
  • COL .5 -.5
  • CUBS .5 -.5
  • LAD .5 -.5
  • MIA .5 -.5
  • MIL .5 -.5
  • NYM .5 -.5
  • PHI .5 -.5
  • PIT .5 -.5
  • SD .5 -.5
  • SF .5 -.5
  • STL .5 -.5 - 1 
  • WAS .5 -.5
  • BAL .5 -.5
  • BOS .5 -.5
  • CHISOX .5 -.5
  • CLE .5 -.5
  • DET .5 -.5
  • HOU .5 -.5
  • LAA .5 -.5
  • MIN .5 -.5
  • NYY .5 -.5
  • OAK .5 -.5
  • SEA .5 -.5
  • TB .5 -.5
  • TEX .5 -.5
  • Eliminated

    • KC +1.13
    • TOR +1.06
     
    kenkean89
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2016 - 4:22 AM ET #16

    Nice 2-1 day to start the year.......
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    Nice 2-1 day to start the year.......
     
    kenkean89
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2016 - 9:09 AM ET #17

    Yanks/Stros postponed today.....
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    Yanks/Stros postponed today.....
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2016 - 11:25 AM ET #18

    Lets keep it going. 

    All plays below are betting 1 unit. 

    MIL +155
    ATL +161
    PHI +157
    MIN +116
    SEA +116
    OAK +115
    LAA +128



    I'll watch the lines but as of now there is no play on Bos/Cle as neither is at plus odds. Colo and SD fall out as plays since they are above +169 filter. 

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Lets keep it going. 

    All plays below are betting 1 unit. 

    MIL +155
    ATL +161
    PHI +157
    MIN +116
    SEA +116
    OAK +115
    LAA +128



    I'll watch the lines but as of now there is no play on Bos/Cle as neither is at plus odds. Colo and SD fall out as plays since they are above +169 filter. 

     
    Danrules24
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2016 - 4:47 PM ET #19

    One change. Sonny Gray is out, so Oak is now +122. I never bet "action" always listed pitchers so my original bet was scratched.
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    One change. Sonny Gray is out, so Oak is now +122. I never bet "action" always listed pitchers so my original bet was scratched.
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2016 - 7:17 PM ET #20

    Rough start today. You know it's not your day when you get King Felix at +odds and he gives up only 1 hit but loses. Also, the Phillies bullpen may be the worst in the history of baseball.
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Rough start today. You know it's not your day when you get King Felix at +odds and he gives up only 1 hit but loses. Also, the Phillies bullpen may be the worst in the history of baseball.
     
    cougarpines
    cougarpines
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2016 - 12:05 AM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Rough start today. You know it's not your day when you get King Felix at +odds and he gives up only 1 hit but loses. Also, the Phillies bullpen may be the worst in the history of baseball.

    If the Phillies were replaced by a high school team, I am not sure anyone could tell the difference on most days.  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Rough start today. You know it's not your day when you get King Felix at +odds and he gives up only 1 hit but loses. Also, the Phillies bullpen may be the worst in the history of baseball.

    If the Phillies were replaced by a high school team, I am not sure anyone could tell the difference on most days.  
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2016 - 2:05 AM ET #22

    Monday results: You have to have some type of skill to go 0-7.

    YTD: -5.81 units

  • ATL .5 -.5 - 1
  • AZ   .5 -.5
  • CIN  .5 -.5
  • COL .5 -.5
  • CUBS .5 -.5
  • LAD .5 -.5
  • MIA .5 -.5
  • MIL .5 -.5 - 1
  • NYM .5 -.5
  • PHI .5 -.5 - 1
  • PIT .5 -.5
  • SD .5 -.5
  • SF .5 -.5
  • STL .5 -.5 - 1 
  • WAS .5 -.5
  • BAL .5 -.5
  • BOS .5 -.5
  • CHISOX .5 -.5
  • CLE .5 -.5
  • DET .5 -.5
  • HOU .5 -.5
  • LAA .5 -.5 - 1
  • MIN .5 -.5 - 1
  • NYY .5 -.5
  • OAK .5 -.5 - 1
  • SEA .5 -.5 - 1
  • TB .5 -.5
  • TEX .5 -.5

    Eliminated

    • KC +1.13
    • TOR +1.06
  • Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Monday results: You have to have some type of skill to go 0-7.

    YTD: -5.81 units

  • ATL .5 -.5 - 1
  • AZ   .5 -.5
  • CIN  .5 -.5
  • COL .5 -.5
  • CUBS .5 -.5
  • LAD .5 -.5
  • MIA .5 -.5
  • MIL .5 -.5 - 1
  • NYM .5 -.5
  • PHI .5 -.5 - 1
  • PIT .5 -.5
  • SD .5 -.5
  • SF .5 -.5
  • STL .5 -.5 - 1 
  • WAS .5 -.5
  • BAL .5 -.5
  • BOS .5 -.5
  • CHISOX .5 -.5
  • CLE .5 -.5
  • DET .5 -.5
  • HOU .5 -.5
  • LAA .5 -.5 - 1
  • MIN .5 -.5 - 1
  • NYY .5 -.5
  • OAK .5 -.5 - 1
  • SEA .5 -.5 - 1
  • TB .5 -.5
  • TEX .5 -.5

    Eliminated

    • KC +1.13
    • TOR +1.06
  •  
    kenkean89
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2016 - 6:24 AM ET #23

    Blown leads, garbage bullpens, and four one-run losses; tough day.....turn it around Tuesday.
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    Blown leads, garbage bullpens, and four one-run losses; tough day.....turn it around Tuesday.
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2016 - 12:18 PM ET #24

    Tuesday: Below are 1 unit plays

    • NYY +115
    • Colo +120
    • SD +112
    • MIA +108

    Play 1.5 units

    • MIL +120
    • Oak +108
    • LAA +123

    A few games today have no plus odd dogs. Will keep an eye on it and adjust as needed.

     

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Tuesday: Below are 1 unit plays

    • NYY +115
    • Colo +120
    • SD +112
    • MIA +108

    Play 1.5 units

    • MIL +120
    • Oak +108
    • LAA +123

    A few games today have no plus odd dogs. Will keep an eye on it and adjust as needed.

     

     
     
    chaser15
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    Posts: 1692
    Posted: Apr. 5, 2016 - 12:57 PM ET #25

    GL Dan  
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    GL Dan  
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