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Mlb chase underdog system

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by Wilk914:

SD & SF for the series' starting today for me.

SD W2 straight-6-4 L10-.450 W% L3Y-.421W% recent in MIL who L1 & 5-5 L10.

SF W1-5-5 L10-.540 W% L3Y-.543 W% recent in ARZ who L1 & 5-5 L10

Very nice summary of the key stats. I think I'll join you on both, although the pitching matchups especially in the SF-AZ series has me thinking a little on it. I'm not a fan of the backend of SF's rotation - Peavy and Cain are two pitchers whose better days are behind them. 

Cueto-Greinke today - Cueto had a great start last time out, and has looked pretty good so far this year. Greinke may be on a decline. Opponents are hitting .303 against him and his WHIP is 1.44 so far. Could be simply a result of limited sample size this early in the season, and a .366 BABIP in 2016, but based on the pitching matchup I like SF today.

Game 2 - Samardzjia-Shelby Miller - Samardjzia wasn't great last year, but has been dependable so far as a member of SF. Miller actually has a great history against current Giants batters, if you buy into BVP stats, with a .165/.265/.247 triple slash over 79 AB's. But he also seems to have taken a turn for the worse this season despite being just 25 years old. He's throwing fewer strikes this year, resulting in a lower K rate while his walk rate, BAA and WHIP are all higher than any single season in his career. 

Game 3 - Peavy-Corbin - Like I said before, I'm not a big fan of soon-to-be 35 year-old Peavy. His 2016 numbers are ugly (8.47 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and .351 BAA), but we can explain away some of that ugliness with an astronomical .405 BABIP, and a rough start in Coors field where he surrendered 11 H and 6 ER in just 4 IP. Still,he has just 1 quality start in 7 tries, and the Giants have won just 2 of those 7. To top it all off, the D-Backs roughed him up for 4 runs in 5 innings in SF 3 weeks ago, and have a collective .348/.417/.579 triple-slash over 66 AB's.

Corbin is in his second season back from Tommy John surgery. There's nothing too remarkable about his 2016 stat line or historical BVP numbers against SF. 

Game 4 - Cain-Rubby De La Rosa - In his defense, Cain turned in a nice 8-inning, 2-run performance last time out, against the Blue Jays no less. But his numbers seem to be on the decline, and SF has won just 1 of his 7 starts this year. Cain gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in an April start against AZ, where he failed to make it out of the 5th inning.

De La Rosa seems like he might be moving in the other direction at the age of 27. However, he has allowed a slash line of .328/.438/.603 against SF in 61 AB's.

All in all, not enough there to scare me off this series completely, but I sure hope SF gets the job done in game 1 or 2, because I don't want to be counting on Peavy or Cain to salvage the series for me. 


For SD, keep in mind that they played a doubleheader yesterday in Chicago, and have no off day to get their rotation straightened out. MLB.com still lists their starters as TBD for games 2, 3, and 4. That said, I don't think MIL will pull off a four-game sweep, so I'll be playing SD here.
 
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Posted: #127
Nice work PB! Very good point about SD doubleheader yesterday and winning both vs CHC!!
 
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Posted: #128
Wilk, nice call on SD and SF!

More new series starting today, but in a few cases the road team has a horrible L10 record.

Here are my thoughts on the others:

The Reds going to Philly fits the initial criteria, as both teams are 5-5 over L10. But I believe that Philly has the better starter slated to go for each game in the set, so I'm staying off this one. I think Philly is better than people give them credit for. 

Toronto and  TX both have won 6 of their last 10. TX is juggling their rotation to avoid having Derek Holland face the Jays, against whom he has a rough track record.At -106, I'm happy to take the Jays here.

They're not a road dog, but I'm okay with the Mets in Colorado. They're 6-4 over L10, while COL is 4-6. Game 1 COL starter Jon Gray has serviceable overall numbers for Colorado, but his home/road splits show that he's vulnerable in Coors. Granted, it's only 29 innings, but he's got a 9.2 ERA, WHIP over 2, BAA nearly .400.  I don't love Harvey pitching tonight, but I think the Mets get a W or two on the road. And the Rockies will miss Syndergaard and Matz in this series, but this will also keep the price down as they're less likely to be road favorites.

I think St. Louis in this situation is exactly what we are looking for with this system. 6-4 compared to 5-5 for LA. 

So IMO, the plays tonight are NYM, TOR, and STL.


Also, this is not a chase play, but I think the ChiSox are a good value at -142. Sale is 7-0, Severino is 0-5. What's not to like there? 


 
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Posted: #129
Good luck PB! I stayed off these series'.
 
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Posted: #130
PHI, TB, NYY & TEX for the series' starting today for me.

PHI L1 straight-6-4 L10-.567 W% L3Y-.621W% recent at home vs MIA who W2 & 5-5 L10.

TB L1-5-5 L10-.500 W% L3Y-.505 W% recent in TOR who L2 & 5-5 L10

NYY W2-.667W% L3Y-.667 recent W% at ARZ L5 & 5-5 L10

TEX W2-7-3 L10-.491 L3Y-.521 IN OAK W1-3-7 L10
 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by Wilk914:

PHI, TB, NYY & TEX for the series' starting today for me.

PHI L1 straight-6-4 L10-.567 W% L3Y-.621W% recent at home vs MIA who W2 & 5-5 L10.

TB L1-5-5 L10-.500 W% L3Y-.505 W% recent in TOR who L2 & 5-5 L10

NYY W2-.667W% L3Y-.667 recent W% at ARZ L5 & 5-5 L10

TEX W2-7-3 L10-.491 L3Y-.521 IN OAK W1-3-7 L10

I like all these picks, was just about to post the same info. 

Out of curiosity, Wilk, what did you see in the NYM-COL series that made you lay off? I took a hit on that one, especially since I lost yesterday on a -142 line. NYM were actually favorites for all three games, so I lost 5U on the series even at my conservative approach of just trying to recoup losses in games 2 and 3. 

So I guess that's the obvious red flag - gets expensive in a chase when you are laying the odds every game. Anything else I should have paid more attention to?

 
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Posted: #132
For that series, i looked at playing COL, figuring they were going to be the dog in all 3 games.

COL had .286% vs NYM in last three years. Actually cost me 1 Unit, but I have been somewhat conservative as well.
 
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Posted: #133
Staying off MIN starting today. L3 straight and 2-8 L10, even tho TOR is struggling as well.

OAK/NYY interesting, NYY favored tonight and may be again Sat & Sun.

No plays starting today, 13 series starting tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #134
I haven't done my usual depth of analysis such as starting pitchers and whatnot, so take my suggestions with a grain of salt. 

I am still chasing the Rangers, coming off getting swept last week. I know this violates the rule of avoiding incoming losing streaks, but even with that current skid, the Rangers still have a L10 record equal to Houston's . So I'm playing the Rangers risking 3.25U  (approximately) to win back the 5U I lost on the last series.

I'm also starting up a chase on Baltimore +114 at the Angels.

And, this is a bit of a stretch with the Rockies up against Gerritt Cole tonight, but I'm going to play them for half a unit as +207 is too juicy for me to pass up. Not sure if I'll continue the chase if they get beat tonight.

And a couple of 1-off plays, not chases, but games my numbers tell me I should like:

Yankees +111, Jays -121

GL this weekend.
 
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Posted: #135
I like what you're doing here. Keep up the good work! 
 
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Posted: #136
It was a good weekend.

Looking at today's slate, I like Tampa for a chase. They have four games with the Marlins - first two in Tampa, next two in Miami. Currently the Rays are available at +117.

I'm also tempted by the Detroit series. Miggy got hit by a pitch (in the knee) and left the game yesterday. He's currently listed as day-to-day, and his status would obviously have an impact. So I'll probably stay off this one until lineups are announced.

Cleveland at Chicago looks good, but the White Sox are hard to chase against with Sale taking the ball every 5th day. Plus it starts with a true doubleheader today and I don't want to forget to get a bet down in the window between games, so I think I'll pass on this one as well. 

The Angels at Texas also looks like a good fit for the chase system. LA has won 7 of L10, compared to 6 of L10 for TEX. I just have a bad gut feeling about this one, though, probably because I don't really believe in the Angels very much. Thoughts on this one?

 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by pbushx2:

It was a good weekend.

Looking at today's slate, I like Tampa for a chase. They have four games with the Marlins - first two in Tampa, next two in Miami. Currently the Rays are available at +117.

I'm also tempted by the Detroit series. Miggy got hit by a pitch (in the knee) and left the game yesterday. He's currently listed as day-to-day, and his status would obviously have an impact. So I'll probably stay off this one until lineups are announced.

Cleveland at Chicago looks good, but the White Sox are hard to chase against with Sale taking the ball every 5th day. Plus it starts with a true doubleheader today and I don't want to forget to get a bet down in the window between games, so I think I'll pass on this one as well. 

The Angels at Texas also looks like a good fit for the chase system. LA has won 7 of L10, compared to 6 of L10 for TEX. I just have a bad gut feeling about this one, though, probably because I don't really believe in the Angels very much. Thoughts on this one?


I'm the same with you... I have contemplated this chase quite a bit.. in the end I don't feel comfortable risking 7 units on this team yet. 

As bad as Holland has been LAA do struggle vs leftys.... not keen playing on Chacin until I see more of him for LAA.... then if it goes to G3 I won't be feeling confident for Angels to snap Rangers 5 game winning streak by then...I'm playing safe and sitting off it... and likely see an easy Angels win today..

I'm looking at a play for tomorrow, maybe Jays or O's.. need to have a closer look though.
 
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Posted: #138
Good call on the easy LAA win.

I like the Jays and O's subjectively. but neither fits the parameters for this chase system (Jays have won just 4 of L10 compared to 7 for NYY; O's are favored today, which I realize is probably not what you were expecting when you started looking at them yesterday).

I am still chasing the Rays for this week. 

But I'm also tempted to jump on the O's despite them being favorites. The juice on them isn't so expensive.
 
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Posted: #139
I'm on the O's too. They fit the parameters of the RPI chase system I've been tracking this year. It's been doing very well early this year.
I'm tracking it at SBR under MLB RPI Chase 2016 if ya want to have a gander. 
Keep up the great work!
 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by pbushx2:

Good call on the easy LAA win.

I like the Jays and O's subjectively. but neither fits the parameters for this chase system (Jays have won just 4 of L10 compared to 7 for NYY; O's are favored today, which I realize is probably not what you were expecting when you started looking at them yesterday).

I am still chasing the Rays for this week. 

But I'm also tempted to jump on the O's despite them being favorites. The juice on them isn't so expensive.

I jumped on O's early and nagged it at -102. Happy with that line. Hopefully it lands on the A.

I don't follow the rules of post 1 by the letter... I use them as a general guide.. 

The way I see it with NYY recent form is due to playing a weak opponent.. while grabbing a 4 game sweep away from home is not an easy task and in the end you can only play what is in front of you... I just feel you can't be too robotic and make this a black and white system. I like the pitching advantage throughout the Jays series....

Plus NYY has been a little thorn for me this season... 2 chases against them and both hit on the C bet.. I don't like C bets. I'm a little cautious with them as they seem to lift when I don't expect them too... good reason form them to lift here playing a key divisional opponent.

I like to only play 1 series every new set to minimise my exposure. O's were my first chase and I was very tempted to add Jays as a 2nd but held off it.
 
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Posted: #141
I took a week off due to being on vacation for the long weekend +, but looking to get back on it now. 

Today it looks like the Brewers are a good play, having won 6 of L10 compared to just 2 for Philly. Milwaukee is currently at +102 to start this four-game set. Eickhoff is good, but the Brewers' offense of mostly no-name players has been performing pretty well, so I like them to take a game or two on the road.

That's all that I see for today.
 
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Posted: #142
 Last night with the Brewers

Today I like a couple of road dogs starting new series. 

Toronto +170, 8 of L10 compared to 5 for BOS. TOR has the advantage in pitching matchups for the next two games, IMO.

Col +133 at SD, 3 of L10 vs 2 for SD

Staying away from KC @ Cle because I don't feel good about going against Salazar. I don't blame you if you take the Royals, though.

Two more series pit two teams with identical L10 records: LAA @ PIT and NYY @ BAL. In both cases, though I think the home team is clearly superior, so I'm staying off these as well.


 
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Posted: #143
It was a good weekend with Toronto cashing at +170. Colorado kept me waiting until the last game of the day yesterday, but avoided the sweep in SD.

Today I'm thinking about going back to the well with Toronto +113 @ DET, although I'm not a big fan of R.A. Dickey going up against Jordan Zimmerman in the finale, if I'm chasing that far. (TOR 8-2 L10, DET 5-5)

I also like Cleveland +108 @ SEA. CLE is 6-4 L10, SEA is 3-7. I like the Cleveland pitching matchups all through the series. But, it is a 4-game set, and I like the final pitching matchup least for Cleveland out of the whole series.

Last one, the Mets are slight favorites (-109) at Pittsburgh. NY is 5-5 L10, Pitt is 3-7. Mets have Matz, DeGrom and Syndergaard lined up for this one. And honestly, they're headed to Milwaukee for four games after Pittsburgh, and I'd even think about chasing them through to that series if necessary. 

Is anyone interested in LAA at NYY? LAA has the slight edge in L10 record (5-5 vs 4-6), and Shoemaker has been dominant his last 3 starts (31K, 0 BB in 22 2/3 IP, .88 WHIP and 1.59 ERA). Still, his overall ERA sits at 5.5 on the season compared to 2.78 for Tanaka. Do you trust Shoemaker to keep it rolling?

Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #144
I thought about Laa at Nyy too, but the Angels have a .368 winning average against the yanks the last 3 years and are only 2-8 at Yankee stadium in that time frame. With that being said I still don't see the yanks sweeping the Angels, but it does go against the system if you chase the angels.
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by Crotch_Duster:

I thought about Laa at Nyy too, but the Angels have a .368 winning average against the yanks the last 3 years and are only 2-8 at Yankee stadium in that time frame. With that being said I still don't see the yanks sweeping the Angels, but it does go against the system if you chase the angels.

Good call on avoiding the Angels. Thanks for sharing the deeper research.
 
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Posted: #146
I'm not liking any of the series starting today at first glance. Of the new series starting today, those that meet the L10 criteria already have the visitor as favorite.

I might look at Milwaukee as a one-off play at +150, though. I don't have a lot of evidence to back this up, just that I feel like there's good value in that line. 

Also, in the bigger picture, has anyone ever thought of applying a chase system to a stud pitcher? I'm thinking along the lines of Kershaw (LA is 13-1 in his 2016 starts), Sale (11-3), Arrieta (11-2), etc. You'll have to pay a lot to get them, but it might be worthwhile. 

Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by pbushx2:

I'm not liking any of the series starting today at first glance. Of the new series starting today, those that meet the L10 criteria already have the visitor as favorite.

I might look at Milwaukee as a one-off play at +150, though. I don't have a lot of evidence to back this up, just that I feel like there's good value in that line. 

Also, in the bigger picture, has anyone ever thought of applying a chase system to a stud pitcher? I'm thinking along the lines of Kershaw (LA is 13-1 in his 2016 starts), Sale (11-3), Arrieta (11-2), etc. You'll have to pay a lot to get them, but it might be worthwhile. 

Thoughts?

good call on the brew crew!

Agree with you that there may be something to chasing the studs (and conversely, maybe even fading the duds). Gonna track your theory in my MLB thread using sagarin ratings as opposed to just win/loss records...pop in for a look now and then (under "Studs & Duds")to see how it progresses. Keep up the good work

 
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Posted: #148
anybody following up?
 
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Posted: #149

Is anyone still following this for 2018? I just recently stumbled upon it, and decided I'm gonna give it a try starting today. It's too early in the season to collect the proper amount of data, but I'm still going to take my chances. Not sure which series to bet on though. I have it down to either Giants (vs dodgers), or Royals (vs Indians). I'm sure both teams will be underdogs every game. Both are division/rivalry series, which is always hard to sweep. Thoughts?

 
 
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Posted: #150
Giants are at home.  Like it better.
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