Oakland also looks good, with Sonny Gray going in game C. Also, what are your thoughts on a 4-game set? an extra chance to avoid the sweep, or another chance to throw good money after bad, at higher stakes?
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Oakland also looks good, with Sonny Gray going in game C. Also, what are your thoughts on a 4-game set? an extra chance to avoid the sweep, or another chance to throw good money after bad, at higher stakes?
I have lost a boat load. I would not recommend it.
getting crushed in this year so far? Or going back to prior year(s)?
So far for me, Pittsburgh came through on Monday at Coors (+1.2U).
Still chasing on Baltimore in TB with the finale today. I'm taking the super-conservative approach I shared a few posts back, where if game 1 loses I just try to get back to even. So far I'm -1.89U there, with another 1.59 pending today. If today cashes, I'll get back to even on the B-more series; if not, I'll be down 3.48U on the series.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wilk914:
System has been getting crushed.
I have lost a boat load. I would not recommend it.
getting crushed in this year so far? Or going back to prior year(s)?
So far for me, Pittsburgh came through on Monday at Coors (+1.2U).
Still chasing on Baltimore in TB with the finale today. I'm taking the super-conservative approach I shared a few posts back, where if game 1 loses I just try to get back to even. So far I'm -1.89U there, with another 1.59 pending today. If today cashes, I'll get back to even on the B-more series; if not, I'll be down 3.48U on the series.
I have lost a boat load. I would not recommend it.
If you have lost a boat load then you are not doing right and chances are picking too many dogs. I urge you to read point 8 in the first post.... the criteria that is itemised is but a few points to look for....
Not a black and white system, you must cap the series.
If you are trying to win money now that will also be your downfall. Start small and build it up.
So far I am 100% this month..
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Quote Originally Posted by Wilk914:
System has been getting crushed.
I have lost a boat load. I would not recommend it.
If you have lost a boat load then you are not doing right and chances are picking too many dogs. I urge you to read point 8 in the first post.... the criteria that is itemised is but a few points to look for....
Not a black and white system, you must cap the series.
If you are trying to win money now that will also be your downfall. Start small and build it up.
Where to find a teams record @ an opponents stadium? Ive checked espn, covers and baseball reference.
I also haven't found a reliable source for this. It is often included in some form in the show notes for each game, but not very easily readable. At it's in different time frames, if at all. For example, earlier this week I saw something about the Padres being something like 47-87 all time at AT&T park, and also 2 of their last 11 there. Not a perfect source because I had to read through a lot to get to it, but better than nothing. I also read that the Pirates swept at Coors last season. Again, not perfect, but better than nothing.
Of course it's possible to go through each team's season game log, like here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2015-schedule-scores.shtml. But obviously that will take a while.
On a different tangent, I've looked at all the data from last season, and set up a way to easily filter the results based on the L10 record and streak coming in, for both the chased team and the opponent.
At least for last year it looks like simply betting the road dogs in game 1 of any series produced a positive outcome. For games 2 and 3, though, the return when betting the road dog was negative no matter how I set the filtering criteria.
And my analysis so far has also shown that L10, for both teams, but especially the opponent, is MUCH more important than incoming W/L streak, for either team.
I still want to do a bunch more cross-checking to make sure the structure of my data analysis isn't flawed, but once I do I hope to apply this going back to 2010 as far as covers has MLB historical data.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wilk914:
Where to find a teams record @ an opponents stadium? Ive checked espn, covers and baseball reference.
I also haven't found a reliable source for this. It is often included in some form in the show notes for each game, but not very easily readable. At it's in different time frames, if at all. For example, earlier this week I saw something about the Padres being something like 47-87 all time at AT&T park, and also 2 of their last 11 there. Not a perfect source because I had to read through a lot to get to it, but better than nothing. I also read that the Pirates swept at Coors last season. Again, not perfect, but better than nothing.
Of course it's possible to go through each team's season game log, like here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2015-schedule-scores.shtml. But obviously that will take a while.
On a different tangent, I've looked at all the data from last season, and set up a way to easily filter the results based on the L10 record and streak coming in, for both the chased team and the opponent.
At least for last year it looks like simply betting the road dogs in game 1 of any series produced a positive outcome. For games 2 and 3, though, the return when betting the road dog was negative no matter how I set the filtering criteria.
And my analysis so far has also shown that L10, for both teams, but especially the opponent, is MUCH more important than incoming W/L streak, for either team.
I still want to do a bunch more cross-checking to make sure the structure of my data analysis isn't flawed, but once I do I hope to apply this going back to 2010 as far as covers has MLB historical data.
Over the weekend set, I broke even (going with my most conservative plan) on the White Sox in Baltimore. I selected Chicago based on the following:
Mainly based on L10 data, where Chicago was 7 of 10 coming in and Baltimore was 6 of 10.
I also liked the +141 line on Chicago for Game A.
Another factor included the fact that it was a four-game series, with another chance to make up ground if the first three didn't cash (or go deeper in the hole).
And finally, I liked the idea of having Chris Sale in the finale (and still at manageable -111 odds, as it turned out).
For the start of the new series this week, I'm going with Philly going to St. Louis. Here are the factors I considered here:
Philly has won 9 of 10, while the Cards are just 4 of their last 10.
I think Wainwright is overvalued in this line. He has lost velocity this season, his Ks are down, walks are up, and WHIP is way up. It seems to me like something isn't right with him.
I think it's a safe bet that Philly will be the dog all three games for this set, lowering the cost of getting back to even if I'm playing catchup.
The forecast looks like there will be no weather issues.
Finally, this isn't strictly following the model, but if the Phillies get swept in St. Louis, I'm prepared to chase them into their next series in Miami, where they will likely also be dogs all three games. They'll miss Fernandez there, and the Marlins' rotation might also be up in the air a little after Conley threw around 120 pitches in his last start going after the no-hitter in Milwaukee. He could get bumped for a spot-starter, or have an extremely short leash if he does start.
Also, just glancing through the schedule today, the visitor has a better L10 record than the hosts in 7 of 10 games. So I think there are other options to look at besides Philly if you're following this model. I would be most interested in Texas, Washington and Seattle (not a dog, but close at -106).
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Over the weekend set, I broke even (going with my most conservative plan) on the White Sox in Baltimore. I selected Chicago based on the following:
Mainly based on L10 data, where Chicago was 7 of 10 coming in and Baltimore was 6 of 10.
I also liked the +141 line on Chicago for Game A.
Another factor included the fact that it was a four-game series, with another chance to make up ground if the first three didn't cash (or go deeper in the hole).
And finally, I liked the idea of having Chris Sale in the finale (and still at manageable -111 odds, as it turned out).
For the start of the new series this week, I'm going with Philly going to St. Louis. Here are the factors I considered here:
Philly has won 9 of 10, while the Cards are just 4 of their last 10.
I think Wainwright is overvalued in this line. He has lost velocity this season, his Ks are down, walks are up, and WHIP is way up. It seems to me like something isn't right with him.
I think it's a safe bet that Philly will be the dog all three games for this set, lowering the cost of getting back to even if I'm playing catchup.
The forecast looks like there will be no weather issues.
Finally, this isn't strictly following the model, but if the Phillies get swept in St. Louis, I'm prepared to chase them into their next series in Miami, where they will likely also be dogs all three games. They'll miss Fernandez there, and the Marlins' rotation might also be up in the air a little after Conley threw around 120 pitches in his last start going after the no-hitter in Milwaukee. He could get bumped for a spot-starter, or have an extremely short leash if he does start.
Also, just glancing through the schedule today, the visitor has a better L10 record than the hosts in 7 of 10 games. So I think there are other options to look at besides Philly if you're following this model. I would be most interested in Texas, Washington and Seattle (not a dog, but close at -106).
I cashed on WAS & SEA yesterday. And am playing DET today. Heres to a comeback.
Congrats on a couple of wins Monday. Detroit fit the profile yesterday as far as winning 6 of L10 vs 4 of L10 for Cleveland; hopefully they'll pull through for you today.
Philly came through for me last night to get me out of that series without dinging my bankroll. Now I gotta sit on my hands for a day, but thankfully there are a handful of series starting up tomorrow.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wilk914:
I cashed on WAS & SEA yesterday. And am playing DET today. Heres to a comeback.
Congrats on a couple of wins Monday. Detroit fit the profile yesterday as far as winning 6 of L10 vs 4 of L10 for Cleveland; hopefully they'll pull through for you today.
Philly came through for me last night to get me out of that series without dinging my bankroll. Now I gotta sit on my hands for a day, but thankfully there are a handful of series starting up tomorrow.
Thanks for that link! Looks like just SEA today? MIL just missed with .402 in CIN over last 10 yrs, so staying away. What ya think?
I'm not sure about that .402 mark - where did that come from? I don't think the original post said anything about 10 years, just the teams' history in that ballpark. That said, I'm playing Milwaukee. I don't feel great about it, but that's probably because I'm a lifelong fan and they are especially bad so far this year. At the same time, Cincy seems to be equally as bad, and their bullpen is just awful.
As far as Seattle-Houston, if my 2015 research is correct, and L10 for both teams is a very important stat, then SEA seems like a very solid play. They've won 8 of last 10 compared to just 4 for the Astros. However, I am a little nervous about having to beat Keuchel or McHugh if the M's lose the first two. Maybe I should just trust the numbers and stop over-thinking.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wilk914:
Thanks for that link! Looks like just SEA today? MIL just missed with .402 in CIN over last 10 yrs, so staying away. What ya think?
I'm not sure about that .402 mark - where did that come from? I don't think the original post said anything about 10 years, just the teams' history in that ballpark. That said, I'm playing Milwaukee. I don't feel great about it, but that's probably because I'm a lifelong fan and they are especially bad so far this year. At the same time, Cincy seems to be equally as bad, and their bullpen is just awful.
As far as Seattle-Houston, if my 2015 research is correct, and L10 for both teams is a very important stat, then SEA seems like a very solid play. They've won 8 of last 10 compared to just 4 for the Astros. However, I am a little nervous about having to beat Keuchel or McHugh if the M's lose the first two. Maybe I should just trust the numbers and stop over-thinking.
Sorry, bad math on my part. Ha. I just looked at last 10 years cause it seems unfair to look back too far in that teams stadium. Im on MIL with ya. Good luck to us!
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Sorry, bad math on my part. Ha. I just looked at last 10 years cause it seems unfair to look back too far in that teams stadium. Im on MIL with ya. Good luck to us!
No worries! DET really killed me. Only BOS for me this weekend. Good luck PBush!
Looks like a profitable weekend with both MIL and BOS.
For today's series openers, I didn't cover every game in-depth, but filtered for games where the visiting team's L10 record was as good as or better than the host. Here are a few more detailed notes:
The Royals were swept in their series in the Bronx last year, and are under .400 over the history of new Yankee Stadium.
Baltimore looks very strong when looking at the L10 numbers. Minnesota did sweep the season series last year, 7-0, but Baltimore returned the favor with a home sweep to open 2016. And with the Twins having won just 1 of their last 10, I don’t think they’ll be able to turn it around and sweep Baltimore, who has only once this year lost three straight games.
The Mets are a slight favorite in LA. They were swept by the Dodgers in LA in 2013, but that was before Matz, DeGrom and Syndergaard - the first three scheduled starters for NYM. On the other hand, this is a four-game set with Kershaw lined up to go in the finale. You could also keep chasing on NYM, into Colorado for their next series.
For the White Sox at Texas, you have to go back almost 10 years to find the last time Chicago got swept. The White Sox L10 record is the same as Texas’, and on the year the Sox own the AL’s best record.
For me, I think it’s the White Sox and the Mets today.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wilk914:
No worries! DET really killed me. Only BOS for me this weekend. Good luck PBush!
Looks like a profitable weekend with both MIL and BOS.
For today's series openers, I didn't cover every game in-depth, but filtered for games where the visiting team's L10 record was as good as or better than the host. Here are a few more detailed notes:
The Royals were swept in their series in the Bronx last year, and are under .400 over the history of new Yankee Stadium.
Baltimore looks very strong when looking at the L10 numbers. Minnesota did sweep the season series last year, 7-0, but Baltimore returned the favor with a home sweep to open 2016. And with the Twins having won just 1 of their last 10, I don’t think they’ll be able to turn it around and sweep Baltimore, who has only once this year lost three straight games.
The Mets are a slight favorite in LA. They were swept by the Dodgers in LA in 2013, but that was before Matz, DeGrom and Syndergaard - the first three scheduled starters for NYM. On the other hand, this is a four-game set with Kershaw lined up to go in the finale. You could also keep chasing on NYM, into Colorado for their next series.
For the White Sox at Texas, you have to go back almost 10 years to find the last time Chicago got swept. The White Sox L10 record is the same as Texas’, and on the year the Sox own the AL’s best record.
For me, I think it’s the White Sox and the Mets today.
pbush, like what you're doing here...really good analysis, filtering, and capping! Watched for a bit then decided to tailed you on the Brew and Sox chase, and now owe you a big "thanks". Continued success my friend
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pbush, like what you're doing here...really good analysis, filtering, and capping! Watched for a bit then decided to tailed you on the Brew and Sox chase, and now owe you a big "thanks". Continued success my friend
Thanks Chaser, it's good to know I'm not talking into a void. Let me build up a little more of a track record before you give me too much credit, though.
After one rainout and two wins last night, I'm looking at starting two more series today (Scrapping the Bal-Min series because it's now down to two games).
Philly has won 6 of their last 10. They take on the Braves, who have won only 3 of 10 and haven't won since a week ago.
Philly is a +107 dog at the moment, with Adam Morgan going up against Matt Wisler tonight. Eickhoff and Velasquez are the starters for the remaining two games in the series, if we need them.
St. Louis has won only 4 of 10, but the Angels are even worse at 3 of 10, and riding a 3-game skid. The Cards are currently +120. I like their chances tonight, and even more so if it gets to Jaime Garcia or Carlos Martinez in game 2 or 3.
I'll be chasing both of these road dogs starting tonight. BOL to anyone joining me.
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Thanks Chaser, it's good to know I'm not talking into a void. Let me build up a little more of a track record before you give me too much credit, though.
After one rainout and two wins last night, I'm looking at starting two more series today (Scrapping the Bal-Min series because it's now down to two games).
Philly has won 6 of their last 10. They take on the Braves, who have won only 3 of 10 and haven't won since a week ago.
Philly is a +107 dog at the moment, with Adam Morgan going up against Matt Wisler tonight. Eickhoff and Velasquez are the starters for the remaining two games in the series, if we need them.
St. Louis has won only 4 of 10, but the Angels are even worse at 3 of 10, and riding a 3-game skid. The Cards are currently +120. I like their chances tonight, and even more so if it gets to Jaime Garcia or Carlos Martinez in game 2 or 3.
I'll be chasing both of these road dogs starting tonight. BOL to anyone joining me.
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