Let's Find a New NFL System

So basically, you're in the Systems and Strategies part of the forum because you are looking for a system that works. It may not win every time, but if it wins 65-75% of the time, we stand to make a really good profit over the long run.

Let me help you.

I have a database that has the following information for every team over the past 4+ seasons: Team, Year, Week, Home/Away, Opponent, Line, OU, Score, Opp's Score, ATS, AOU, and if they played on MNF,

If you can think of ANY system that you want to have checked that involved those parameters, I'll check it for you and report back.

Also, keep in mind, I can combine consecutive weeks (so I can check something like Win as a Dog Away followed by a bye followed by a Home Dog game...how does that team do on the Home Dog game?)

Anything will fly. Let's see if I can help you.

Here are some of the systems I have checked from others and others that I have discovered on my own: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100836131

Joke - Outstanding info.

Please check this:

Teams win 2 games SU & ATS, next week pick ATS...chase for 2 additional weeks (1U, 2U, 4U)

 

 

If team loses SU & ATS on the road, chase at home ATS for two weeks. (Obviously, the team needs two home games in a row following the loss.)

Please and thank you.

You'd be 170-28
A=102
B=45
C=23
L=28

28*7*1.1 = 215.6
170-215.6 = -45.6U

A=35
B=27
L=19

A+B - 3*(L)*1.1 = -0.7U

great. do you have any database for nba or nhl, mlb or just nfl thanks

Just NFL.

Ya.. I would love to know the correlation between NHL sides -1.5 and the OVER, or games that go to a shootout and UNDER.

 3 straight L or W ATS go the opposite the next game.  Same on totals.

Thanks

3x Lose ATS, take that team the following week: 114-109-4
3x Win ATS, take the other team the following week: 102-107-10
3x Under AOU, take the over the following week: 111-126-11
3x Over AOU, take the under the following week: 103-109-7

DJ, what if there is a bye in between the two home games? Does it still qualify?

where is your database located? is there any chance we can see it or?

if a team play in monday night, next week lost or dont cover the line???

 

Found three good patterns that I like:

Away favorite MNF Loss SU (and ATS)
7-2 Over the following week

Away dog MNF Loss SU (and ATS)
7-20-2 ATS the following week

Home Dog Loss SU (and ATS)
11-3 ATS the following week

Just kidding, I screwed up on the last one. The other two are correct though:

Away favorite MNF Loss SU (and ATS)
7-2 Over the following week

2004:    1-1
2005:    1-0
2006:    3-0
2007:    0-0
2008:    0-0
2009:    2-1

Away dog MNF Loss SU (and ATS)
7-20-2 ATS the following week

2004:    0-4
2005:    1-3-1
2006:    2-3-1
2007:    1-4
2008:    2-5
2009:    1-1

I don't know but that filter produced split results so pick your spots.

what about the teams coming bye week???

Great question sabia. We always hear about teams doing better after their BYE week in football. What do the numbers actually say: SU & ATS. 

Thanks Joke

Beat you guys to that one, but I'll post it for you anyway. These numbers go back to 2004:

System 15: If you are a fav of -3 or higher after a bye week, you are 59-30-1 ATS (66.29%) over the last six years. (Add-on: if you also lost between 10 and 20 (inclusive) ATS the week before you were BYE, you are 12-2 ATS (86%))

(Add-on: if you also lost between 10 and 20 (inclusive) ATS the week before you were BYE, you are 12-2 ATS (86%))
[/Quote]so the play will be    tampa bay ??? ......

No. They are a dog.

The play is DAL-6.5

A dog that wins ATS and SU, wins ATS the next week (dog or fav), fade them in the third week.

^^This one should be super selective but very hot. 

1-Team coming off a 14+ point SU loss

2-Team coming off a 14+ spread loss (missed their spread by  14+)

 

Thanks

Not very selective, nor a big winner. :(

System 2: If a team losses by 20 points or more ATS, take them the following week. Only take them if they are a dog. If the favorite is -3 or better, take them as well. (82-55 last 6 years = 59.9%)