Kreatture, I kinda like Sweden -.5 (+115) against Russia. I found Russia worked hard against Canada, but came up lucky a couple of times. I think the line is an indication of them not getting blown out by Canada, but I have a feeling Sweden will put them away early.
Any thoughts, wisdom, advice?
No opinion on the game mick. The Draw at +386 is enticing, but I don't have any reason to back either side and will not force a play here.
Canada is -3 (-148), just horrible.. altho they'll probably cover, who wants to lay -148 and have to win by 4 goals? Not me.. There will be better spots in the Tournament later.
There will be no picks officially locked in until this evening.
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Quote Originally Posted by mickjam:
Kreatture, I kinda like Sweden -.5 (+115) against Russia. I found Russia worked hard against Canada, but came up lucky a couple of times. I think the line is an indication of them not getting blown out by Canada, but I have a feeling Sweden will put them away early.
Any thoughts, wisdom, advice?
No opinion on the game mick. The Draw at +386 is enticing, but I don't have any reason to back either side and will not force a play here.
Canada is -3 (-148), just horrible.. altho they'll probably cover, who wants to lay -148 and have to win by 4 goals? Not me.. There will be better spots in the Tournament later.
There will be no picks officially locked in until this evening.
I really like Dallas tonight, even giving up the 10 points.
My reason are:
#1) The Raptors have no players that can come close to doing what Bargani does for the team.
#2) After watching the Dallas game last night and seeing Dirk get injured, it was quite obvious that Marion can put up comparable points and Dirk's injury didn't change the style of play significantly
#3) Back to back games on the West Coast for the Raptors
#4) The line for the game appears to still be dropping with the news that Nowitzki most likely won't be playing
For the above reason's I am looking for the Nowitzki-less Mav's to take it to the tired, Bargnani-less Raptors tonight.
I know that in most cases when a key player gets injured you want to bet against them. However, with teams like Dallas, Miami, and Boston with more depth than some of the lower echelon teams, I don't see this injury making that much of an impact.
What do you think kreatture?
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I really like Dallas tonight, even giving up the 10 points.
My reason are:
#1) The Raptors have no players that can come close to doing what Bargani does for the team.
#2) After watching the Dallas game last night and seeing Dirk get injured, it was quite obvious that Marion can put up comparable points and Dirk's injury didn't change the style of play significantly
#3) Back to back games on the West Coast for the Raptors
#4) The line for the game appears to still be dropping with the news that Nowitzki most likely won't be playing
For the above reason's I am looking for the Nowitzki-less Mav's to take it to the tired, Bargnani-less Raptors tonight.
I know that in most cases when a key player gets injured you want to bet against them. However, with teams like Dallas, Miami, and Boston with more depth than some of the lower echelon teams, I don't see this injury making that much of an impact.
INVESTED: $10,714.06 RETURNED: $13,027.27 PROFIT: +$2313.21 ROI %: +17.76%
NFL
New Orleans +9 Philadelphia -6.5 (-130) 5% $591.34 to win $454.88(Pending)
Minnesota/Philadelphia Under 44 (-110) 1% $123.13 to win $111.94
NHL
Carolina Hurricanes ML (+102)(OT included) 2% $246.26 to win $251.19
Carolina/Toronto Over 5.5 (+105) 1% $123.13 to win $129.29
Washington Capitals -0.5 (-105) (regulation) 2% $246.26 to win $234.53
Chicago Blackhawks -0.5 (+146) (regulation) 1% $123.13 to win $179.77
Vancouver Canucks -0.5 (+112) (regulation) 2% $246.26 to win $275.81
Vancouver Canucks 1st Period -0.5 (+157) 3% $369.40 to win $579.96
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers ML (+131) 2% $246.26 to win $322.60
There will be no other plays or Halftime wagers tonight, since I will not be watching any of the games. Quite a blizzard here but expecting power to stay on tonight, staying in, relaxing, and watching a couple of movies. Will check in later.
INVESTED: $10,714.06 RETURNED: $13,027.27 PROFIT: +$2313.21 ROI %: +17.76%
NFL
New Orleans +9 Philadelphia -6.5 (-130) 5% $591.34 to win $454.88(Pending)
Minnesota/Philadelphia Under 44 (-110) 1% $123.13 to win $111.94
NHL
Carolina Hurricanes ML (+102)(OT included) 2% $246.26 to win $251.19
Carolina/Toronto Over 5.5 (+105) 1% $123.13 to win $129.29
Washington Capitals -0.5 (-105) (regulation) 2% $246.26 to win $234.53
Chicago Blackhawks -0.5 (+146) (regulation) 1% $123.13 to win $179.77
Vancouver Canucks -0.5 (+112) (regulation) 2% $246.26 to win $275.81
Vancouver Canucks 1st Period -0.5 (+157) 3% $369.40 to win $579.96
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers ML (+131) 2% $246.26 to win $322.60
There will be no other plays or Halftime wagers tonight, since I will not be watching any of the games. Quite a blizzard here but expecting power to stay on tonight, staying in, relaxing, and watching a couple of movies. Will check in later.
With Vancouver in control, it does look like it will end up being a very good night, once again, despite the Eagles clear lack of effort tonight. Would have been an absolute monster night if they had at least showed up for a little bit.
Really loved the NHL card tonight with Montreal and Toronto getting snowed in last night and having long nights. Philly having not played for 7 days should have been (and were) completely flat in that 1st Period against a Vancouver team firing on all cyclinders, which led to the strongest play of the night.
Always nice to do your work, have a relaxing evening watching a movie, then check your account and see more money. That's the way it should be. Enjoy your life, the games won't change by you watching them.
Time for sleep.. see you tomorrow
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Quote Originally Posted by davopnz:
fantastic day!
With Vancouver in control, it does look like it will end up being a very good night, once again, despite the Eagles clear lack of effort tonight. Would have been an absolute monster night if they had at least showed up for a little bit.
Really loved the NHL card tonight with Montreal and Toronto getting snowed in last night and having long nights. Philly having not played for 7 days should have been (and were) completely flat in that 1st Period against a Vancouver team firing on all cyclinders, which led to the strongest play of the night.
Always nice to do your work, have a relaxing evening watching a movie, then check your account and see more money. That's the way it should be. Enjoy your life, the games won't change by you watching them.
A winning night, no complaints at all. I think we are all disappointed in Philedelphia, but these things happen. The layover had a negative impact on them.
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A winning night, no complaints at all. I think we are all disappointed in Philedelphia, but these things happen. The layover had a negative impact on them.
Nice night Keatture .. .. I really like your reasoning on the Philly/Vancouver play ..solid situational spot that probably 99% of people overlooked and instead went with The Flyers based on the 22 years at home without a win stat.. (like losses 10 years ago have any impact on this game) ..That attention to detail is what sets you apart imo ..keep it up !
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Nice night Keatture .. .. I really like your reasoning on the Philly/Vancouver play ..solid situational spot that probably 99% of people overlooked and instead went with The Flyers based on the 22 years at home without a win stat.. (like losses 10 years ago have any impact on this game) ..That attention to detail is what sets you apart imo ..keep it up !
When I first looked at that game, I actually instantly leaned Philadelphia. Then seeing the History of the teams and it became even stronger. But that was in the morning, when I initially circle some games. Then you monitor the lines throughout the day and break down the matchups one-by-one. This is why it's not always best to lock your selections in right away. Also, games are not won on paper. If they were, then a computer would always be able to tell you who was going to win.
The turning point was when I saw Philly had been off for a week. Travelling out to the West Coast against a team who has really been firing on all cyclinders lately was going to be a tough task for them. The legs are usually a little groggy in the 1st period of these situations and since Vancouver has been playing so well, a 1st Period wager immediately offered value. Seeing a price of +157 then made the play a very high value selection.
Those practice sessions aren't the same speed as live game action and it takes some time for the legs to catch up. You see this in the Playoffs sometimes when one team sweeps and gets 6 days off while the other only gets 1 night off after a 7 game series. The team who keeps playing in rhythm often has the advantage to begin the next series - not the rested team.
It doesn't always happen that way, but we were on the right side last night and that's all that matters right now. Game-by-game, we move on..
Anyways, I hope that helps a little bit on seeing how I arrived at that selection. Situational Analysis is one of the most important factors to consider when handicapping a game. It's not always just about numbers.
Cheers
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Thanks a lot guys, appreciate the kind words.
When I first looked at that game, I actually instantly leaned Philadelphia. Then seeing the History of the teams and it became even stronger. But that was in the morning, when I initially circle some games. Then you monitor the lines throughout the day and break down the matchups one-by-one. This is why it's not always best to lock your selections in right away. Also, games are not won on paper. If they were, then a computer would always be able to tell you who was going to win.
The turning point was when I saw Philly had been off for a week. Travelling out to the West Coast against a team who has really been firing on all cyclinders lately was going to be a tough task for them. The legs are usually a little groggy in the 1st period of these situations and since Vancouver has been playing so well, a 1st Period wager immediately offered value. Seeing a price of +157 then made the play a very high value selection.
Those practice sessions aren't the same speed as live game action and it takes some time for the legs to catch up. You see this in the Playoffs sometimes when one team sweeps and gets 6 days off while the other only gets 1 night off after a 7 game series. The team who keeps playing in rhythm often has the advantage to begin the next series - not the rested team.
It doesn't always happen that way, but we were on the right side last night and that's all that matters right now. Game-by-game, we move on..
Anyways, I hope that helps a little bit on seeing how I arrived at that selection. Situational Analysis is one of the most important factors to consider when handicapping a game. It's not always just about numbers.
Kreatture, that Vancouver play was gutsy, considering that they haven't beaten Philly in 22 years at home (0-15).
What made you believe this was the one?
Like kreatture said, games that happened 10 years ago (or even 3 years ago) have no bearing on today; the past doesn't predict the future. Trends are usually garbage and are similar to 'backtesting' a system. You may find something is 50-0 that immediately nosedives... which is why you should stick to 'forecasting'. Obviously it is a much greater task as you actually have to put your dick out on the line and not simply refer to past stats. Situational analysis, matchup analysis, motivation dynamics, starting lineups/goalies, recent form, etc. are the things you need to look into, as kreatture does. By combining all these, it's easier to make that prediction of what WILL happen, not what HAS happened.
GL today P
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Quote Originally Posted by mickjam:
Kreatture, that Vancouver play was gutsy, considering that they haven't beaten Philly in 22 years at home (0-15).
What made you believe this was the one?
Like kreatture said, games that happened 10 years ago (or even 3 years ago) have no bearing on today; the past doesn't predict the future. Trends are usually garbage and are similar to 'backtesting' a system. You may find something is 50-0 that immediately nosedives... which is why you should stick to 'forecasting'. Obviously it is a much greater task as you actually have to put your dick out on the line and not simply refer to past stats. Situational analysis, matchup analysis, motivation dynamics, starting lineups/goalies, recent form, etc. are the things you need to look into, as kreatture does. By combining all these, it's easier to make that prediction of what WILL happen, not what HAS happened.
Like kreatture said, games that happened 10 years ago (or even 3 years ago) have no bearing on today; the past doesn't predict the future. Trends are usually garbage and are similar to 'backtesting' a system. You may find something is 50-0 that immediately nosedives... which is why you should stick to 'forecasting'. Obviously it is a much greater task as you actually have to put your dick out on the line and not simply refer to past stats. Situational analysis, matchup analysis, motivation dynamics, starting lineups/goalies, recent form, etc. are the things you need to look into, as kreatture does. By combining all these, it's easier to make that prediction of what WILL happen, not what HAS happened.
GL today P
I'll take 50-1 versus 1-50 any day. Disregarding previous trends and history to predict what WILL happen is irresponsible.
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Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
Like kreatture said, games that happened 10 years ago (or even 3 years ago) have no bearing on today; the past doesn't predict the future. Trends are usually garbage and are similar to 'backtesting' a system. You may find something is 50-0 that immediately nosedives... which is why you should stick to 'forecasting'. Obviously it is a much greater task as you actually have to put your dick out on the line and not simply refer to past stats. Situational analysis, matchup analysis, motivation dynamics, starting lineups/goalies, recent form, etc. are the things you need to look into, as kreatture does. By combining all these, it's easier to make that prediction of what WILL happen, not what HAS happened.
GL today P
I'll take 50-1 versus 1-50 any day. Disregarding previous trends and history to predict what WILL happen is irresponsible.
It was an exaggerated example... but who says the alternative is 1-50?? That's a ridiculous scenario that has no basis in reality. Besides, I haven't seen one system that has upheld it's backtested results for a prolonged period of time (a year, for example). If you have any such systems, please provide the links.
And you're clearly a systems guy so I'm not even going to bother seriously debating your second statement because you guys don't understand probability theory. Previous trends and history has nothing to do with anything. If the trend has some basis in reality, then it is another story.
For example (and hypothetically speaking), if the Islanders and the Rangers played under the total the last 10 games they played, the chance of the next game going under is no greater. However, if you apply REALITY to the trend and conclude that the NY state rivalry causes both teams to play extremely hard and sound defensively, then that is a trend worth looking into. But you still need to handicap the game, the trend is simply an indicator.
I don't know what you trend guys don't understand about the past not predicting the future? If you were to predict outcomes, maybe you could get on the 10 unders in a row before they happen; but no, you trend guys simply bring up trends AFTER they have been profitable and simply hope that the luck continues. You don't think Vegas knows about these trends and can easily counter them if they are getting expose on them?
I think the easiest proof is in the Trends section found on Covers... You literally have dozens of pointless trends that could go either way.
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It was an exaggerated example... but who says the alternative is 1-50?? That's a ridiculous scenario that has no basis in reality. Besides, I haven't seen one system that has upheld it's backtested results for a prolonged period of time (a year, for example). If you have any such systems, please provide the links.
And you're clearly a systems guy so I'm not even going to bother seriously debating your second statement because you guys don't understand probability theory. Previous trends and history has nothing to do with anything. If the trend has some basis in reality, then it is another story.
For example (and hypothetically speaking), if the Islanders and the Rangers played under the total the last 10 games they played, the chance of the next game going under is no greater. However, if you apply REALITY to the trend and conclude that the NY state rivalry causes both teams to play extremely hard and sound defensively, then that is a trend worth looking into. But you still need to handicap the game, the trend is simply an indicator.
I don't know what you trend guys don't understand about the past not predicting the future? If you were to predict outcomes, maybe you could get on the 10 unders in a row before they happen; but no, you trend guys simply bring up trends AFTER they have been profitable and simply hope that the luck continues. You don't think Vegas knows about these trends and can easily counter them if they are getting expose on them?
I think the easiest proof is in the Trends section found on Covers... You literally have dozens of pointless trends that could go either way.
.. I really like your reasoning on the Philly/Vancouver play ..solid situational spot that probably 99% of people overlooked and instead went with The Flyers based on the 22 years at home without a win stat.. (like losses 10 years ago have any impact on this game) ..That attention to detail is what sets you apart imo ..keep it up !
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