Kreatture's Playbook

I like the way this is laid out, good job :)

I realy like your top 5 system and hope you stay around for a long time.

Thanks guys, appreciate it.
Thanks again to you tomspeople since the hfoudl system is the 1st System on here I really liked and started playing.

Nice start to the week last night clearing 8 games and only losing 1.

LAA are the early play in Game 1 of the double header, starting in less than an hour.
I'm working on the rest now and will post within the hour hopefully.

Cheers

Kreatture,
               Thanks for posting your work but i was wondering how you come up with your spot plays? I just started reading your work yesterday I understand how your 4 systems work. Which i will be follow but wondering what stats you break down for the spot plays. Wanted to say good work on yesterdays plays too but i only bet on Houston which was still a winner. Keep up the good work!!

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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It was a great start to the week going 8-1 last night, and a great start to the "Take From Poor, Give To Rich" System going a solid 4-1.
I have made a decision of how to play this new System, it was in my head as a thought yesterday, and I will implement it starting tonight.
I am fairly confident the Poor teams will lose 2 games in a one week stretch, and the Rich teams will win 2 games in a one week stretch, but I definitely don't want to over-extend myself here with too many plays. So I have decided that if Game 1 of the week for any of the teams results in a win for me, then I will start a second Chase for them to win/lose a 2nd game in the week. This will ONLY happen if the bet wins in Game 1 and the team has 6 or 7 games scheduled for that week. It will be explained more in depth once the spreadsheet is up, which I have started (but not finished).
So since 4 games won the wager in Game 1 last night, they will also be a play tonight, in hopes of cashing a 2nd Unit from them this week.

Let's get to it!!


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 21ST, 2009

RUNLINE BLITZ

HOUSTON ASTROS +135


HFOUDL

DETROIT TIGERS  (game1 of 3)


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

DETROIT TIGERS  (game1 of 3)


FADING WASHINGTON NATIONALS

NO PLAY


TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH

Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week

RICH BOSTON   (vs. texas)   game2
toronto   (POOR CLEVELAND)   game1
la angels  (POOR KANSAS CITY)   game1


Chase 2 - to win/lose a 2nd game this week

RICH NY YANKEES  (vs. baltimore)
RICH LA DODGERS  (vs. cincinnati)
new york mets  (POOR WASHINGTON)
florida  (POOR SAN DIEGO)

The LA ANGELS (POOR KANSAS CITY) will also be a play in the 2nd game of the double header tonight. If KC wins, then Chase 1 will continue as a Game 2 bet (bet to recover loss from Game 1, +1 Unit). If KC losses, then bet 2nd game as a Chase 2 Game 1 (regular bet to win 1 Unit). I will post it when Game 1 is over.


SPOT PLAYS

NO PLAYS


Also, if a team is listed under multiple Systems above, it means I am playing them to win 1 Unit in EACH System. Therefore, like tonight, I am wagering on Detroit twice, for a 2 Unit gain.


Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Great night last night Kreat!! 8- 1 WOO HOO

Nice start to the evening with the Angels Game 1 Win. Take em in the nightcap now.


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 21ST, 2009


TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH

Chase 2 - to win/lose a 2nd game this week

la angels  (POOR KANSAS CITY) 

This is the 2nd game of the double header.



Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

i was trying to understand your runline blitz plays over the last two days. I noticed you had houston and pittsburgh on the run line but they weren't the biggest favorite on the board. Wondering how you can up with those plays? They both won thou so thanks for that

Kreatture, great minds think alike on HOU. Although to be fair, the biggest favorites did quite well today, with ATL, NYY and DET all winning by 2+.

This was actually my first RL -1 game that was at + money...interesting fact.

Spot Plays follow no set criteria. Often, a spot play will be something other than baseball right now, like a tennis match or golf prop, even some CFL (altho I really do hate betting on that League, it is so unpredictable!). Most of the time my baseball plays fall under one of the Systems, but occassionally there will be a single game, or a series, which I think is a good spot to pick up an extra Unit. These games will fall under the Spot Plays and are determined by various conditions, such as Record vs. Lefties, Weather Conditions, Travel Schedule, Personal Motivation (by a particular team or player), Hot/Cold Streaks, etc, etc.

I have altered this System from the original laid out by prof8t (the creator) to suit my Bankroll Management. If you click on the month of June in this System's page and scroll down to June 14th, you will find a brief comment about this.

In May and June, there was 1 stretch each month where things became dicey, going to a Game 5 both times. Playing the huge favorites each game (even at -110, -120) was adding up to a hefty bet come Game 4 and 5. I decided I could use my handicapping skills to possibly find better values, thus eliminating the higher juice should a Chase become that long again.
Originally, I started looking at the #2 or #3 favorite on the day and going with them in some cases, and as time has moved on I am now deciding to incorporate even more value into this System.

It has worked great since. In fact, I have not gone past a Game 3 since I made this decision. It also allows for possibly more than 1 play each day, like on July 4th.
Tomorrow will also be one of those days, with several games spread over different starting times, and multiple games I like.

I'll try to be posting the plays by lunchtime tomorrow, and there may be 2 or 3 selections for this System.


Cheers 

Thanks for the quick feedback i will go look at your results for June. I just started following this chase system since flat betting wasn't working so well for me so all the info on here is great.

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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Last night was solid again, going 8-3. Almost all of the Chases are cleared until the weekend, so focus today is on the RunLine Blitz. With the good time spread of games today, I am rolling out 4 games today. Depending on how each game is going will determine how to bet each game, either as a new Game 1, or Game 2 etc. Goal is to win 1 of the 2 early ones, and 1 of the late ones. And anything more is just ice cream.  


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 22ND, 2009

RUNLINE BLITZ

NEW YORK YANKEES -150  (game1)  1pm est
COLORADO ROCKIES  (game1 or 2)  3:10pm est
TORONTO BLUE JAYS  (game1, 2 or 3)  7:07pm est
LOS ANGELES DODGERS  (game1, 2, 3, or 4)  10:10pm est


HFOUDL

NO PLAYS


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

NO PLAYS


FADING WASHINGTON NATIONALS

NO PLAY


TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH

Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week

RICH BOSTON   (vs. texas)   game3
toronto   (POOR CLEVELAND)   game2


Chase 2 - to win/lose a 2nd game this week

new york mets  (POOR WASHINGTON)


SPOT PLAYS

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS / ATLANTA BRAVES  -  UNDER 7.5


Thought the line would be 6.5 or 7 here. I really don't see the winning team scoring more than 4 runs in this, which makes 7.5 great value.


Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Yankees look to be in control, as  I hoped by this point. Colorado is now locked in as a Game 1.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 22ND, 2009

LOCKED IN

RUNLINE BLITZ

COLORADO ROCKIES  -105  (game1)



Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Tough break on Colorado with a 1 run win. One bad pitch by Jimenez for that 3-run home run. I had a bad feeling about the game and wasn't really expecting to find a win here. Oh well, move on to Toronto tonight as a Game 2. Great value here.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 22ND, 2009

LOCKED IN

RUNLINE BLITZ

TORONTO BLUE JAYS  +133  (game2)



TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH

RICH BOSTON  (vs. texas)


There was been a pitching change in this game for the Texas Rangers. Vincent Padilla is out with the flu and Dave "Gascan" Nippert is in for the emergency start.

If you wagered earlier, check your book it may have been refunded, and place it again. The juice is a little higher, but the match-up is even better now!


Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Aggressive blitzing tonight. I'm actually on KC with a spot play tonight (I really think Saunders is pitching hurt at this point...something's not right)...cleared NYY later and I think I'm rolling with Billingsley and the Dodgers. BOL.

Adding a Spot Play to the list for tonight. Like the White Sox tonight too, but not locking it in.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 22ND, 2009

ADDED

SPOT PLAYS

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS  -113


Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Good luck with KC, never a wise move to bet against one of the hottest teams against one of the coldest.. but something tells me KC has a good shot tonight. Bannister has been fairly decent, and you may be right, Saunders might be banged up. Tonight will really tell, cuz he should mow down this lineup with 2-hit ball.

Manny Ramirez is questionable tonight (hand). I will wait until the lineups are released before locking them in.

Billingsley is fine, good to go tonight. Arroyo has been hot, which means he's due for a cool down. He's not a great consistent pitcher to keep the recent run of success up.
His career numbers in LA are not great, and the Dodgers lineup has absolutely owned him the last few years, while Chad has shut down the Reds big guys - Encarnacion, Phillips, Votto - combined 2 for 24.
While Ethier, Loney, Kemp, Loretta, and Pierre are combined 36-77 .. .468!!

I see the fine folks over on SN's thread are all on the Reds tonight.. I have found nothing in my research to support the Reds have a snowball's chance tonight. It should be interesting to watch how it unfolds. My novice experience is probably missing something.

Jays look good at the plate tonight, as expected. Locking in the Dodgers now as a Game 1 wager. No Manny, no problem.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 22ND, 2009

LOCKED IN

RUNLINE BLITZ

LOS ANGELES DODGERS  +110  (game1)



Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Well I took the -1 figuring Billingsley isn't right and it doesn't seem like he really is. But I am shocked at Arroyo's odd success. What the hell...

Should've gone with LAA I guess. I've had it with these bullpen crapouts honestly...they had that game wrapped up. Saunders looked like complete shit and they still end up blowing the game completely...that team is one to avoid...