I've broken this game down the best I can. I honestly believe the stats, lineups, and weather today all favor LA. Detroit has stacked the lineup with righties instead of their 5 lefties, but the wind is blowing out for left-handed hitters, which favors LA. Saunders is a ground ball pitcher as well, while Jackson has more flyball outs than groundouts this season. He may still have the 3rd best era in the AL, but it's over 4 in August, and he hasn't got past the 6th inning in 4 of his last 5 starts. Gary Matthews, 6-10 career vs. Jackson, inserted into #9 slot today, key cog. Jackson's not great holding runners % favors the strong Angels running game and Chone Figgins career 7-13 vs. Jackson. I expect Matthews and Figgins to set the table for Hunter and Vlad. Probably lots of runs scored today, thought about the over 10.. hopefully reads are right and Angels come out on top.
Playing LA ANGELS for Max Recovery
Mirrrior that yo...... Conservatively I am risking 2.5 some odd units to win the 3 back plus the 1 for profit. After researching myselft too I felt the RL is a better shot and I'll be sooooooo maddddd if they win by 1.
C'mon........ No wammy no wammy no wammy.......
I did see somewhere else that LAA has not been swept at home in around 2 years or so. Lets go RL.........
About those lovable losers..... (Chc) I only played 1 unit on the RL yest instead of 2 but even now I am going to chill on the sidelines and spread the -1.2 unit into some other plays to make it back. Don't trust'em plus these lines suck especially in situations like todays's game but thats how it is these days.
On a side note....... Thanks Lidge........ Beginning to think last year was a fluke because I remember when he was Hou he sucked then too. Only 1 good year and then down hill from there. We want a pitcher not a belly itcher.......
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Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:
I've broken this game down the best I can. I honestly believe the stats, lineups, and weather today all favor LA. Detroit has stacked the lineup with righties instead of their 5 lefties, but the wind is blowing out for left-handed hitters, which favors LA. Saunders is a ground ball pitcher as well, while Jackson has more flyball outs than groundouts this season. He may still have the 3rd best era in the AL, but it's over 4 in August, and he hasn't got past the 6th inning in 4 of his last 5 starts. Gary Matthews, 6-10 career vs. Jackson, inserted into #9 slot today, key cog. Jackson's not great holding runners % favors the strong Angels running game and Chone Figgins career 7-13 vs. Jackson. I expect Matthews and Figgins to set the table for Hunter and Vlad. Probably lots of runs scored today, thought about the over 10.. hopefully reads are right and Angels come out on top.
Playing LA ANGELS for Max Recovery
Mirrrior that yo...... Conservatively I am risking 2.5 some odd units to win the 3 back plus the 1 for profit. After researching myselft too I felt the RL is a better shot and I'll be sooooooo maddddd if they win by 1.
C'mon........ No wammy no wammy no wammy.......
I did see somewhere else that LAA has not been swept at home in around 2 years or so. Lets go RL.........
About those lovable losers..... (Chc) I only played 1 unit on the RL yest instead of 2 but even now I am going to chill on the sidelines and spread the -1.2 unit into some other plays to make it back. Don't trust'em plus these lines suck especially in situations like todays's game but thats how it is these days.
On a side note....... Thanks Lidge........ Beginning to think last year was a fluke because I remember when he was Hou he sucked then too. Only 1 good year and then down hill from there. We want a pitcher not a belly itcher.......
Mirrror that yo...... Conservatively I am risking 2.5 some odd units to win the 3 back plus the 1 for profit. After researching myself too I felt the RL is a better shot and I'll be sooooooo maddddd if they win by 1.
Congrats on your RL win! Even tho I had just the ML, I was cheering for them to hang on by 2 for you in that, once again, crazy 9th inning!
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Quote Originally Posted by MontanaMax:
Mirrror that yo...... Conservatively I am risking 2.5 some odd units to win the 3 back plus the 1 for profit. After researching myself too I felt the RL is a better shot and I'll be sooooooo maddddd if they win by 1.
Congrats on your RL win! Even tho I had just the ML, I was cheering for them to hang on by 2 for you in that, once again, crazy 9th inning!
This San Diego team just won't quit and let Atlanta win one
Great day/night overall.. ecstatic with 2 of 3 in the nightcap to go along with the Angels big victory this afternoon. Nice offensive outburst by the Cubs in the bottom of the 8th. Nationals are a tough team to go against these days, altho "leans" paid off for this one. Took a little longer, but bullpen numbers came through and showed their true colors. Cubs roll as expected.
Not worried with the Atlanta loss.. altho it was a very surprising result tonight. That was probably the strongest lean of the day.. just proof once again, that numbers on paper are only that.. the game is still to be played. Nice job Padres.. but lean is even stronger on Braves for Thursday night. Public will, and should be, no doubt, like 80% on the Braves.. analysis will be determined before game time. It is not an "automatic" play..
Have to be proud of the 'cappin done for today's games. I debated for hours over the Angels game.. and am extremely proud of being able to determine it's outcome to the best of my ability. It was the biggest game I have had in quite awhile, and am happy to finally be on the right side of one of these.
Back at tomorrow.. I'm gettin sleepy tonight.
No plays on the afternoon games tomorrow.. right now the Braves is the only game that I know of for play..
Took down the poker tournament at a local club tonight, for a nice 5 Unit pot! Was short stacked at final table of ten.. but quad'ed up with 77, then followed up next hand with AA for another double up.. walked over the final table after that. Paid the tab plus the roommates, and still had $15 to spare.. free entertainment at it's finest.. LoL
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Quote Originally Posted by yankees247:
This San Diego team just won't quit and let Atlanta win one
Great day/night overall.. ecstatic with 2 of 3 in the nightcap to go along with the Angels big victory this afternoon. Nice offensive outburst by the Cubs in the bottom of the 8th. Nationals are a tough team to go against these days, altho "leans" paid off for this one. Took a little longer, but bullpen numbers came through and showed their true colors. Cubs roll as expected.
Not worried with the Atlanta loss.. altho it was a very surprising result tonight. That was probably the strongest lean of the day.. just proof once again, that numbers on paper are only that.. the game is still to be played. Nice job Padres.. but lean is even stronger on Braves for Thursday night. Public will, and should be, no doubt, like 80% on the Braves.. analysis will be determined before game time. It is not an "automatic" play..
Have to be proud of the 'cappin done for today's games. I debated for hours over the Angels game.. and am extremely proud of being able to determine it's outcome to the best of my ability. It was the biggest game I have had in quite awhile, and am happy to finally be on the right side of one of these.
Back at tomorrow.. I'm gettin sleepy tonight.
No plays on the afternoon games tomorrow.. right now the Braves is the only game that I know of for play..
Took down the poker tournament at a local club tonight, for a nice 5 Unit pot! Was short stacked at final table of ten.. but quad'ed up with 77, then followed up next hand with AA for another double up.. walked over the final table after that. Paid the tab plus the roommates, and still had $15 to spare.. free entertainment at it's finest.. LoL
How did you pull off that incredible eight or however many play? Cleared a bunch yesterday so I went with CHC -1.5, NYY -1.5, STL -1.5, PHI -1.5, COL -1, and FLA -1.5 today. THREE of them are down already (of four that have started) and two are down BIG.
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How did you pull off that incredible eight or however many play? Cleared a bunch yesterday so I went with CHC -1.5, NYY -1.5, STL -1.5, PHI -1.5, COL -1, and FLA -1.5 today. THREE of them are down already (of four that have started) and two are down BIG.
Yep, like I said...there's 0-4 with COL losing, too and PHI left. Wouldn't be surprised to go 0-6 with these today. Not sure how the hell I'm going actually chase this...probably small lines like you did with the Recovery Process. Seems like each time I dig myself out of a hole I somehow make a bigger one for myself. I'm really stupid.
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Yep, like I said...there's 0-4 with COL losing, too and PHI left. Wouldn't be surprised to go 0-6 with these today. Not sure how the hell I'm going actually chase this...probably small lines like you did with the Recovery Process. Seems like each time I dig myself out of a hole I somehow make a bigger one for myself. I'm really stupid.
How did you pull off that incredible eight or however many play? Cleared a bunch yesterday so I went with CHC -1.5, NYY -1.5, STL -1.5, PHI -1.5, COL -1, and FLA -1.5 today. THREE of them are down already (of four that have started) and two are down BIG.
It was just one of those rare days where there were a large number of very strong leans. A 7-2 day on the RunLine is very nice, but rarely seen.
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Quote Originally Posted by andy88c:
How did you pull off that incredible eight or however many play? Cleared a bunch yesterday so I went with CHC -1.5, NYY -1.5, STL -1.5, PHI -1.5, COL -1, and FLA -1.5 today. THREE of them are down already (of four that have started) and two are down BIG.
It was just one of those rare days where there were a large number of very strong leans. A 7-2 day on the RunLine is very nice, but rarely seen.
Yep, like I said...there's 0-4 with COL losing, too and PHI left. Wouldn't be surprised to go 0-6 with these today. Not sure how the hell I'm going actually chase this...probably small lines like you did with the Recovery Process. Seems like each time I dig myself out of a hole I somehow make a bigger one for myself. I'm really stupid.
Tough stretch of afternoon games. I really only liked the Cardinals game, but admittedly, never really researched that one. Just saw Carpenter vs. Moehler and clicked on wager. They didn't even win the game.
Phillies are a strong lean tonight, I don't see an 0-6 day in your forecast.
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Quote Originally Posted by andy88c:
Yep, like I said...there's 0-4 with COL losing, too and PHI left. Wouldn't be surprised to go 0-6 with these today. Not sure how the hell I'm going actually chase this...probably small lines like you did with the Recovery Process. Seems like each time I dig myself out of a hole I somehow make a bigger one for myself. I'm really stupid.
Tough stretch of afternoon games. I really only liked the Cardinals game, but admittedly, never really researched that one. Just saw Carpenter vs. Moehler and clicked on wager. They didn't even win the game.
Phillies are a strong lean tonight, I don't see an 0-6 day in your forecast.
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday was a success, as the decision to back the Angels strong paid off. Tonight, however, the decision has been made to lay off the Braves Game3. The ML juice is just too high to play for full recovery. If I was forced to make a wager it would have to be on San Diego +1.5. Losses will be divided among weekend series to recover. Think smart, wager smarter.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 27TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -115 game2
lost with st. louis earlier. may be a late play as well
HFOUDL
NO PLAYS - all chases cleared
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
LA ANGELS (game1 of 4) -200 juice qualifier, play rl -1.5 spot play - division leader / 4 game series
There will be no game3 play tonight on atlanta. unlike yesterday, where all indicators pointed towards an angels big game3 victory, there are no such indicators tonight. "play-on" pitcher clayton richard strong match-up vs. atlanta. juice is too high to back atlanta, and the runline is not in favor. losses from games1 & 2 will be divided among weekend series to recoup. additional units may be placed on angels tonight - gametime decision
SPOT PLAYS
Have decided to follow SuperEagle's thread on NFL Pre-Season Totals Chase and try it out.
UNDER 38 jags/eagles UNDER 37 dolhpins/bucs OVER 34 rams/bengals
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
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Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday was a success, as the decision to back the Angels strong paid off. Tonight, however, the decision has been made to lay off the Braves Game3. The ML juice is just too high to play for full recovery. If I was forced to make a wager it would have to be on San Diego +1.5. Losses will be divided among weekend series to recover. Think smart, wager smarter.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 27TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -115 game2
lost with st. louis earlier. may be a late play as well
HFOUDL
NO PLAYS - all chases cleared
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
LA ANGELS (game1 of 4) -200 juice qualifier, play rl -1.5 spot play - division leader / 4 game series
There will be no game3 play tonight on atlanta. unlike yesterday, where all indicators pointed towards an angels big game3 victory, there are no such indicators tonight. "play-on" pitcher clayton richard strong match-up vs. atlanta. juice is too high to back atlanta, and the runline is not in favor. losses from games1 & 2 will be divided among weekend series to recoup. additional units may be placed on angels tonight - gametime decision
SPOT PLAYS
Have decided to follow SuperEagle's thread on NFL Pre-Season Totals Chase and try it out.
UNDER 38 jags/eagles UNDER 37 dolhpins/bucs OVER 34 rams/bengals
Kreatture...no prob...all good...i was up till 7:30 in the a.m. reading about these systems, im glued....i've never really got into it this deep, ive been around gambling my whole life and just started taking it to the next level a couple years back....the more im on here the more interested im into it...Keep it up and GL>>
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Kreatture...no prob...all good...i was up till 7:30 in the a.m. reading about these systems, im glued....i've never really got into it this deep, ive been around gambling my whole life and just started taking it to the next level a couple years back....the more im on here the more interested im into it...Keep it up and GL>>
Ugh.. Braves got to Richard early, unexpected. Looks like they will cruise. I don't regret the decision not to play, laying that many Units at -230 just wasn't worth the stress tonight.
Phillies aren't scoring, wtf..
Not feelin real great tonight, so not sure if gonna play the late games for anything else. Was lookin at Seattle and layin more on Angels.. bout 40 minutes left to decide.
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Ugh.. Braves got to Richard early, unexpected. Looks like they will cruise. I don't regret the decision not to play, laying that many Units at -230 just wasn't worth the stress tonight.
Phillies aren't scoring, wtf..
Not feelin real great tonight, so not sure if gonna play the late games for anything else. Was lookin at Seattle and layin more on Angels.. bout 40 minutes left to decide.
Bad night on the diamond, thankfully I jumped on SuperEagle's NFL totals for tonight and finished up 2-1 there.
Great job by the Braves tonight, at least I was right about that series, unfortunately it took them 3 games to do it.. I'll look at makin up the difference there this weekend.
I don't know if I have caught a bug or what, but I am feeling very flush and dizzy tonight, overall shittiness.. hopefully it's just a 24hr thing and passes tomorrow. Heading for bed super early compared to usual now, will figure out weekend plays tomorrow.
Cheers
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Bad night on the diamond, thankfully I jumped on SuperEagle's NFL totals for tonight and finished up 2-1 there.
Great job by the Braves tonight, at least I was right about that series, unfortunately it took them 3 games to do it.. I'll look at makin up the difference there this weekend.
I don't know if I have caught a bug or what, but I am feeling very flush and dizzy tonight, overall shittiness.. hopefully it's just a 24hr thing and passes tomorrow. Heading for bed super early compared to usual now, will figure out weekend plays tomorrow.
Funny, I'm feeling sick too bro. Like a summer cold. Muscle aches and tired as hell.
Hope its not Swine Flu!
Yesterday sure was underdog day. I did take the Rangers, Mets, and houston individually, in a 3 teamer, and round robin. My best winning day of all time. Cleared 700 on those games alone.
better luck to you this weekend.
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Funny, I'm feeling sick too bro. Like a summer cold. Muscle aches and tired as hell.
Hope its not Swine Flu!
Yesterday sure was underdog day. I did take the Rangers, Mets, and houston individually, in a 3 teamer, and round robin. My best winning day of all time. Cleared 700 on those games alone.
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feeling a lot better tonight, slept til 6pm. Waking up and seeing the Cubs 5-2 win sure made it easier to jump outta bed as well! Couple new plays this weekend, and a couple I am laying off. Sorry couldn't get this posted earlier.
I have created a new Spreadsheet as well to keep track of SUPEREAGLE43's NFL Pre-Season Totals Chase. It is listed below. Credit has been given to supereagle on the master sheet.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 28TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
CLEVELAND INDIANS+145 game1 SEATTLE MARINERS
HFOUDL
NO QUALIFYING PLAYS - weekend off
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
LA ANGELS (game2 of 4) NY YANKEES (game1 of 3) -200 juice qualifier, play rl -1.5 BOSTON RED SOX (game1 of 3) -200 juice qualifier, play rl -1.5 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (game1 of 3) top5 2nd half team vs. bot5 road team 2 unit qualifier
NFL PRE-SEASON TOTALS
OVER 38patriots/redskins OVER 41 packers/cardinals
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feeling a lot better tonight, slept til 6pm. Waking up and seeing the Cubs 5-2 win sure made it easier to jump outta bed as well! Couple new plays this weekend, and a couple I am laying off. Sorry couldn't get this posted earlier.
I have created a new Spreadsheet as well to keep track of SUPEREAGLE43's NFL Pre-Season Totals Chase. It is listed below. Credit has been given to supereagle on the master sheet.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 28TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
CLEVELAND INDIANS+145 game1 SEATTLE MARINERS
HFOUDL
NO QUALIFYING PLAYS - weekend off
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
LA ANGELS (game2 of 4) NY YANKEES (game1 of 3) -200 juice qualifier, play rl -1.5 BOSTON RED SOX (game1 of 3) -200 juice qualifier, play rl -1.5 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (game1 of 3) top5 2nd half team vs. bot5 road team 2 unit qualifier
NFL PRE-SEASON TOTALS
OVER 38patriots/redskins OVER 41 packers/cardinals
I'm with you for the angels and seattle. Also started playing the pre-season total system in the other thread. Hopefully that turns out to be profitable
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I'm with you for the angels and seattle. Also started playing the pre-season total system in the other thread. Hopefully that turns out to be profitable
Sheesh kreatt don't know what to say where I am right now but it ain't good. Forgot to play CHC this afternoon and figures they win. Have BOS, LAD, NYY ALL looking like losses and played STL a little smaller. Basically looking at a Game 4-5 chase tomorrow...this got ridiculous for me very fast. Lesson on money management again.
0
Sheesh kreatt don't know what to say where I am right now but it ain't good. Forgot to play CHC this afternoon and figures they win. Have BOS, LAD, NYY ALL looking like losses and played STL a little smaller. Basically looking at a Game 4-5 chase tomorrow...this got ridiculous for me very fast. Lesson on money management again.
Sheesh kreatt don't know what to say where I am right now but it ain't good. Forgot to play CHC this afternoon and figures they win. Have BOS, LAD, NYY ALL looking like losses and played STL a little smaller. Basically looking at a Game 4-5 chase tomorrow...this got ridiculous for me very fast. Lesson on money management again.
Yeah it's tough when you hit a skid. You have to remember not to panic and think long term. I've noticed you are still playing pretty much all of the high juice games, which I think will work more against you down the stretch. If you take a look at my Recovery Process you can see I scaled back to playing each game for a flat rate. Small wagers on lotsa games which presented strong value. Finding those RL games where you get a +140 to +180 line really helps lower the wager and win back some Units quickly. They're out there, you just have to dig a little deeper and crunch the numbers even harder. Don't even be scared of playing some +1.5's if you get a good line on a dog you think could even win outright.
Take the Indians game I had tonight. Wow, did they ever get smoked. I'm not completely surprised, but the value at +140 made it a smart wager to sneak in. It was just 0.69 of a Unit, which isn't a problem to add onto the Seattle game later.
Man.. I see the Angels are going to be a problem for me again this weekend..
Ah, I see the Kazmir trade is finally official now. Took long enough tonight.
Angels, Yankees on a collision course for the ALCS, should be intense!
Anyway.. step back away from the situation a lil bit andy, and look at the big picture. You don't need to get everything back in one or two nights. Even if it takes 5 or 6 nights, at least you will eventually get back to even, then continue workin on more profit.
Cheers
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Quote Originally Posted by andy88c:
Sheesh kreatt don't know what to say where I am right now but it ain't good. Forgot to play CHC this afternoon and figures they win. Have BOS, LAD, NYY ALL looking like losses and played STL a little smaller. Basically looking at a Game 4-5 chase tomorrow...this got ridiculous for me very fast. Lesson on money management again.
Yeah it's tough when you hit a skid. You have to remember not to panic and think long term. I've noticed you are still playing pretty much all of the high juice games, which I think will work more against you down the stretch. If you take a look at my Recovery Process you can see I scaled back to playing each game for a flat rate. Small wagers on lotsa games which presented strong value. Finding those RL games where you get a +140 to +180 line really helps lower the wager and win back some Units quickly. They're out there, you just have to dig a little deeper and crunch the numbers even harder. Don't even be scared of playing some +1.5's if you get a good line on a dog you think could even win outright.
Take the Indians game I had tonight. Wow, did they ever get smoked. I'm not completely surprised, but the value at +140 made it a smart wager to sneak in. It was just 0.69 of a Unit, which isn't a problem to add onto the Seattle game later.
Man.. I see the Angels are going to be a problem for me again this weekend..
Ah, I see the Kazmir trade is finally official now. Took long enough tonight.
Angels, Yankees on a collision course for the ALCS, should be intense!
Anyway.. step back away from the situation a lil bit andy, and look at the big picture. You don't need to get everything back in one or two nights. Even if it takes 5 or 6 nights, at least you will eventually get back to even, then continue workin on more profit.
The rain is nasty in Boston.. Jays have bases loaded 1 out, down 6-5 Top 9 .. be nice if they can tie it, then maybe a rainout... well 2 outs now, tram.
All ready have 2 walk-offs tonight with Yankees and Cards.. come on Jays, tie it up so we can have another!! LoL
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Ooops, meant 2 for 2 tonight .. 2-0 !
The rain is nasty in Boston.. Jays have bases loaded 1 out, down 6-5 Top 9 .. be nice if they can tie it, then maybe a rainout... well 2 outs now, tram.
All ready have 2 walk-offs tonight with Yankees and Cards.. come on Jays, tie it up so we can have another!! LoL
Sheesh kreatt don't know what to say where I am right now but it ain't good. Forgot to play CHC this afternoon and figures they win. Have BOS, LAD, NYY ALL looking like losses and played STL a little smaller. Basically looking at a Game 4-5 chase tomorrow...this got ridiculous for me very fast. Lesson on money management again.
Hang in there Andy. Things will turn around on their own. I hit a rough patch earlier this week and I'm slowly picking up the pieces.
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Quote Originally Posted by andy88c:
Sheesh kreatt don't know what to say where I am right now but it ain't good. Forgot to play CHC this afternoon and figures they win. Have BOS, LAD, NYY ALL looking like losses and played STL a little smaller. Basically looking at a Game 4-5 chase tomorrow...this got ridiculous for me very fast. Lesson on money management again.
Hang in there Andy. Things will turn around on their own. I hit a rough patch earlier this week and I'm slowly picking up the pieces.
Hang in there Andy. Things will turn around on their own. I hit a rough patch earlier this week and I'm slowly picking up the pieces.
I'm learning more and more every day that the grand scale of this whole thing is all about money management. Learn when you can be aggressive, and when you should back off.
A small percentage of people I believe actual have the patience and mental capacity to make this work over the long haul. Fortunately, for those who don't, I also believe this is something which can be learned, and absorbed.
The human mind can do marvelous things, if one can unlock the front door.
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Quote Originally Posted by dufresne:
Hang in there Andy. Things will turn around on their own. I hit a rough patch earlier this week and I'm slowly picking up the pieces.
I'm learning more and more every day that the grand scale of this whole thing is all about money management. Learn when you can be aggressive, and when you should back off.
A small percentage of people I believe actual have the patience and mental capacity to make this work over the long haul. Fortunately, for those who don't, I also believe this is something which can be learned, and absorbed.
The human mind can do marvelous things, if one can unlock the front door.
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