Kelly Criterion put to the test.

c

lol

 

 

Record 9-4

Bankroll 2859.72

Ok heres the deal I actually had Redskins at +2 so its a win for me and my bankroll now sits at 2859.72. I know I posted the play at +1 and would count as a push for you if your tailing me.  Im not selling my picks the whole purpose is to use the KELLY wagering method.  I understand if someone is mad because I counted it as a win when I posted the play but you are tailing me at your own risk.  I personally got the +2 on friday if I dont count this wager as the win it personally screws my bankroll management up.  So if someone doesnt understand this I apologize.  But I have to count it as I got graded.

Then why write +1? 

Credibility takes forever to build up and only seconds to tear down... Stay transparent. Most people in your situation would count it as posted and simply be happy they actually won personally.

Record 8-4-1

Bankroll 2663.36

Understood!!! 

Ok heres the deal the line the day I posted it was +1 I should not have even posted the play. Thats where I went wrong.  This is the problem with posting plays and not being able to immediately post them.  Im not by a computer all day.  Regardless I understand the issue and would have it myself.  The point I was trying to make is I got graded as a win and my bankroll wagers will now be off considering I have to count this one as a push.  But it is easy to follow both so personally its not a big deal.  Bottom line its all about winners and hopefully I can continue to win.  Good luck all

How do you make your plays? Not on a computer? I  just make my plays on Pinny then quickly come here and log them in...

And I'm not trying to be the Covers police, I just think you might be on to something here and would hate for it to be tainted by a few silly mistakes.

Dj,

Man you are brutal.  Yes I use the computer.  And yes you are acting like the covers police.  And no I dont need to explain my reasoning.  My record has spoken for it self so far.  And hopefully I can keep it up.  I changed my record because you are right!.  Ill post plays as early as I can next time.  No offense but coming onto covers is not always my first priority.  If im home I will.  I didnt even get internet till today.  Comcast was down all day yesterday and evening so I couldnt update this till today after I worked. 

Man gambling is such a "unbelievable" business lol

8-4-1

Bankroll $2,663.36

No play on MNF?

Are you kidding me?

I was asking if you made plays on the computer because you could easily be making plays with a local and therefore your reasoning would stand. But you make your plays on the internet so it literally takes 90 extra seconds to post what you played. If that's too hard, don't post! No one likes people posting after the fact or deceiving records/plays. You don't have to explain yourself but like I said, a website where credibility/reputation is all you have, it's best to safeguard it.

By the way, calling me brutal and then conceding 3 sentences later that I'm right doesn't bode well for the whole credibility thing. I may not be and have no intention to be the Cover's police but I most certainly will be the voice of reason. I don't hate for nothing and people know this, I'm objective and back up all my arguments with either logic or empirical evidence.

You should have just posted what line you actually put the wager in at once you logged in to covers.. you posted the play 2.5 hours before the game, but you waited until game time to make your actual bet? The line moved a whole point in the final 2.5 hours? I don't think so.. in fact, I don't see a single book who had Washington at +2 at game time.. the line was moving the other way and was at +1 or pk.

And.. you made a post 45 minutes into the game, you should have updated your post then, if you in fact did get the game at +2, instead of waiting until it was over to claim it.

Just thoughts for next time..

No biggie.. we're over it. Moving on.

Thanks DJ!!!  Appreciate everything you do for covers.com.  Allow me to run my thread I will handle the issues as I did immediately.

GOOD LUCK

FYI the line jumped to plus 1 sometime saturday and when I was home to post the picks for NFL that morning it was +1.  I never tracked it on Saturday because I was locked in.  Regardless of the reason gentlemen im not trying to lie or make my records bigger than they are.  Please understand I simply wanted to post it as a win because it was for ME>   Either way if I said it was +2 you would have said no book had that which was pretty true I believe.  I know its a mistake on me and Ill take it.  Till next time

GO BLUE!!!

8-4-1

If you notice, my plays were still always posted before the start times with the correct line/odds. The whole debacle was concerning tailers wanting my plays to come out earlier.

Besides, I now post my plays hours in advance so I've learned my lesson. 

Just busting your ass.  Thought it would be good humor considering the back-and-forth between you and mtp 

Guys the point is Im currently in the black with some solid plays.  No need  to blow this up sorry for the record oops that lasted less than a minute.

As it stands my record is 8-4-1

I posted the line as it was the day of the game regardless of if I played it earlier.  I APOLOGIZE.  Guys please follow or dont.  I will keep chugging on.  Hopefully this thread will gain some respect for once. 

mtp: keep it up, im trying to do something similar at the moment... however, you must live and die with what you post here. dont ever go back and try to say anything different... that will ruin you here and any future plans that you may have..

continued success

 

Falcon

 I think someone put an over under on 3 weeks for the length of this thread.  Which is pretty funny because I believe I have surpassed that officially.  People take their time out to open a thread and people clutter it with doubt.  From here on out I am only going to post plays  and not respond to ignorant comments from people who do not understand this business yet and are trying to figure it out.  Ive patiently waited years before I opened of a thread like this because I essentially thought it would be a waste of time.  Its really starting to feel that way.  I planned a project and would appreciate if a few followers would leave their two sense out.  WORRY ABOUT YOURSELF!!  I am more than willing to answer questions but I will not argue or respond to BS. 

On another note:  My plan is too reach reach $6818 bankroll by next November.  I will roughly play 132 more games by that time.  I will continue to be selective and hope followers have some fun with this. 

These numbers are estimates and I may have more plays or less but will continue to kelly wager 57% winners.  Every once in awhile I may lower a wager based on strength. 

Now the story will be alot different if I dont hit my target of 57%  I assure you this is possible but I will do everything possible to keep posting solid winners.  Good Luck

GO BLUE!!

Yeah that was me I believe.. I've put an Over/Under on a few threads around here, and not once has the House lost.

This particular thread did indeed fail well within the 3 week limit. In fact, it didn't even surpass 1 week..

You've since recovered from that drastic downfall, and explained yourself a fair bit better since then..

We actually backed off you here, and let things go, and this thread has started to develop at a healthy rate.. but then you have to go and bring that up again..!!

I'm still waiting for an answer from post #54.. and until then, this thread officially remains as an Under (-465) Winner. The only person to payout is DJ, since he's the only one who would have saw the HUGE value in a -465 line..

No worries, I'm over it, so to should you be. Start posting some winners and the rest will fall into place..

Curiosity killed the cat.. so F u too..

MTP - Thinker commends you for doing "something similiar".. yet he's doing absolutely NOTHING like you..!!!

He brags about "making a pick 100 straight days" (which is idiotic btw, no good capper has a pick every single day for 100 straight days!! GET A CLUE) yet here, mtp, you only periodically make picks (surprise, not every night offers a good investment, you have a clue!).. So.. what are your thoughts about Thinker's strategy?

Hint: The question is sarcastic.. I know you don't give a shit..!

Cheers 

I got a small play tonight!

Denver nuggets pick em

risking 90.55 to win 82.32

54% kelly wager