A pretty good week aye guys, nice to see Denver get back on track. I didn't take the NY Jets because of the juice but took Chicago, shame they didnt cover but theres always next week. 2 outa 3 aint bad by any means.
Lines already out on the chicago game -8.5 so you will have to take the ML with should be around -500 I wont be betting on it personally since it seems that Chicago is playing as if they are done for the season
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Quote Originally Posted by silanarchy:
A pretty good week aye guys, nice to see Denver get back on track. I didn't take the NY Jets because of the juice but took Chicago, shame they didnt cover but theres always next week. 2 outa 3 aint bad by any means.
Lines already out on the chicago game -8.5 so you will have to take the ML with should be around -500 I wont be betting on it personally since it seems that Chicago is playing as if they are done for the season
Just so everyone knows, CHI was NOT a JM play this week. In his e-mail he claimed they pushed the closing line two weeks ago and so were not a play under the system. You can chase CHI if you want...but it is not an official play according to JM.
BTW...I played them, too...before the e-mail came out...then tried to get out of it by buying some back on MINN...still got crushed as CHI didn't even cover in a 4-team teaser!!
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Just so everyone knows, CHI was NOT a JM play this week. In his e-mail he claimed they pushed the closing line two weeks ago and so were not a play under the system. You can chase CHI if you want...but it is not an official play according to JM.
BTW...I played them, too...before the e-mail came out...then tried to get out of it by buying some back on MINN...still got crushed as CHI didn't even cover in a 4-team teaser!!
Just so everyone knows, CHI was NOT a JM play this week. In his e-mail he claimed they pushed the closing line two weeks ago and so were not a play under the system. You can chase CHI if you want...but it is not an official play according to JM.
BTW...I played them, too...before the e-mail came out...then tried to get out of it by buying some back on MINN...still got crushed as CHI didn't even cover in a 4-team teaser!!
If your talking about the phil game it wasnt a push the closing line was 3.5 and they lost by 4 sounds like JM knows that the chance of chi covering the next 2 games in unlikely.
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Quote Originally Posted by DR-D:
Just so everyone knows, CHI was NOT a JM play this week. In his e-mail he claimed they pushed the closing line two weeks ago and so were not a play under the system. You can chase CHI if you want...but it is not an official play according to JM.
BTW...I played them, too...before the e-mail came out...then tried to get out of it by buying some back on MINN...still got crushed as CHI didn't even cover in a 4-team teaser!!
If your talking about the phil game it wasnt a push the closing line was 3.5 and they lost by 4 sounds like JM knows that the chance of chi covering the next 2 games in unlikely.
The e-mail was sent last Wednesday...long before today's game...with a link to a vegas site that showed the closing line of 4 points against PHIL. You may be right, however, in figuring that JM thought CHI didn't have a chance in their next three games.
Personally, I think they will win next week, but who wants to lay those 5-1 odds on the ML?!
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The e-mail was sent last Wednesday...long before today's game...with a link to a vegas site that showed the closing line of 4 points against PHIL. You may be right, however, in figuring that JM thought CHI didn't have a chance in their next three games.
Personally, I think they will win next week, but who wants to lay those 5-1 odds on the ML?!
Yea I agree, I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago considering this weeks odds. Laying that juice defeats the purpose of the 110 "or close to" odds you should be betting on. Would be nice to get a couple more plays before the season ends though.
But is it too late for Carolina or are they still a playoff contention?
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Yea I agree, I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago considering this weeks odds. Laying that juice defeats the purpose of the 110 "or close to" odds you should be betting on. Would be nice to get a couple more plays before the season ends though.
But is it too late for Carolina or are they still a playoff contention?
Yea I agree, I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago considering this weeks odds. Laying that juice defeats the purpose of the 110 "or close to" odds you should be betting on. Would be nice to get a couple more plays before the season ends though.
But is it too late for Carolina or are they still a playoff contention?
Technically carolina still has a shot but if they lose to bucks this week (which has to happen for them to become a play) I dont think I will be betting on them because they face NO, MIN, GMEN, Saints
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Quote Originally Posted by silanarchy:
Yea I agree, I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago considering this weeks odds. Laying that juice defeats the purpose of the 110 "or close to" odds you should be betting on. Would be nice to get a couple more plays before the season ends though.
But is it too late for Carolina or are they still a playoff contention?
Technically carolina still has a shot but if they lose to bucks this week (which has to happen for them to become a play) I dont think I will be betting on them because they face NO, MIN, GMEN, Saints
Yea I agree, I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago considering this weeks odds. Laying that juice defeats the purpose of the 110 "or close to" odds you should be betting on. Would be nice to get a couple more plays before the season ends though.
But is it too late for Carolina or are they still a playoff contention?
I wonder how many people you deterred from playing CHI and CAR because of the doubt and second guessing you are so good at introducing here and there? Any guess? Maybe you should conduct a poll to see if you promote a positive contribution with your posts.
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Quote Originally Posted by silanarchy:
Yea I agree, I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago considering this weeks odds. Laying that juice defeats the purpose of the 110 "or close to" odds you should be betting on. Would be nice to get a couple more plays before the season ends though.
But is it too late for Carolina or are they still a playoff contention?
I wonder how many people you deterred from playing CHI and CAR because of the doubt and second guessing you are so good at introducing here and there? Any guess? Maybe you should conduct a poll to see if you promote a positive contribution with your posts.
Yea I agree, I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago considering this weeks odds. Laying that juice defeats the purpose of the 110 "or close to" odds you should be betting on. Would be nice to get a couple more plays before the season ends though.
But is it too late for Carolina or are they still a playoff contention?
Yeah OK...Let me try that again...
I wonder how many people you deterred from playing CHI and CAR because of the doubt and second guessing you are so good at introducing here and there? Any guess? Maybe you should conduct a poll to see if you promote a positive contribution with your posts.
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Quote Originally Posted by silanarchy:
Yea I agree, I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago considering this weeks odds. Laying that juice defeats the purpose of the 110 "or close to" odds you should be betting on. Would be nice to get a couple more plays before the season ends though.
But is it too late for Carolina or are they still a playoff contention?
Yeah OK...Let me try that again...
I wonder how many people you deterred from playing CHI and CAR because of the doubt and second guessing you are so good at introducing here and there? Any guess? Maybe you should conduct a poll to see if you promote a positive contribution with your posts.
So DR-D wants to clarify CHI as the only play today...as everyone knew and JM posted as an official play, on the ML I might add at -360 to -450 depending on time, which are terrible odds to silanarchy.
CAR a no play fine...Under JM, yeah, but ON3's Mod system, possible...yet with an under .500 rcd...ok dont play them, but look what happened...
but it still remains a fact that silanarchy said;
"I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago" and "is it too late for Carolina"...
Hey, I call it like I see it and you can call me all the names you want, but nontheless the fact remains that silanarchy constantly plants the slightest bit of doubt on plays in 99.9% of his posts...
and Im curious when he says "our losses", just who are you speaking for anyway silanarchy...the books...because it cant be for the people trying to get a little advise on smart plays from these forums...
why dont you suggest a way to LAB those losses on the next play or what you think is the right moves in relation to the weeks action rather than suggest a blanket "cut our losses" which just leads people to accumulate more losses...
but hey what do I know other than the fact that you suggested a no play on CHI and CAR and thus proved to be bad advise...once again.
OK Dr-D on HOU...
but you know silanarcy is gonna say, hey does HOU have a chance per the playoff contention question at 5-7 regardless of the L-3 SU/ATS fact, thus raising that ever so subtle half glass empty atmosphere...
and I wouldnt doubt to see ON3 add NE as a MOD play suggestion as well...
so anyway...G/L to you.
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So DR-D wants to clarify CHI as the only play today...as everyone knew and JM posted as an official play, on the ML I might add at -360 to -450 depending on time, which are terrible odds to silanarchy.
CAR a no play fine...Under JM, yeah, but ON3's Mod system, possible...yet with an under .500 rcd...ok dont play them, but look what happened...
but it still remains a fact that silanarchy said;
"I think it might be best to cut our losses on Chicago" and "is it too late for Carolina"...
Hey, I call it like I see it and you can call me all the names you want, but nontheless the fact remains that silanarchy constantly plants the slightest bit of doubt on plays in 99.9% of his posts...
and Im curious when he says "our losses", just who are you speaking for anyway silanarchy...the books...because it cant be for the people trying to get a little advise on smart plays from these forums...
why dont you suggest a way to LAB those losses on the next play or what you think is the right moves in relation to the weeks action rather than suggest a blanket "cut our losses" which just leads people to accumulate more losses...
but hey what do I know other than the fact that you suggested a no play on CHI and CAR and thus proved to be bad advise...once again.
OK Dr-D on HOU...
but you know silanarcy is gonna say, hey does HOU have a chance per the playoff contention question at 5-7 regardless of the L-3 SU/ATS fact, thus raising that ever so subtle half glass empty atmosphere...
and I wouldnt doubt to see ON3 add NE as a MOD play suggestion as well...
to all who played chicago today, congrats. next week we have...
Week 14 plays: Houston
Week 14 modified: New England
Week 15 potentials: Kansas City
Week 15 modified potentials: Minnesota Dallas
General: I will also be playing Pittsburgh, they have lost 4 in a row and 3 out of 4 ATS, I haven't back tested much, but teams that are .500 or better after 4 game losing streaks or worse seem to cover 1 of the next 3 weeks.
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to all who played chicago today, congrats. next week we have...
Week 14 plays: Houston
Week 14 modified: New England
Week 15 potentials: Kansas City
Week 15 modified potentials: Minnesota Dallas
General: I will also be playing Pittsburgh, they have lost 4 in a row and 3 out of 4 ATS, I haven't back tested much, but teams that are .500 or better after 4 game losing streaks or worse seem to cover 1 of the next 3 weeks.
Well it depends ramper on wether you were happy to pony up the high juice to take chicago on game 2 of the chase. If you wanted to then you would be wagering around 40% of your bank on that game if you were risking 5% on game 1. Also if im not wrong Houston still has a chance to make the playoffs, not a big chance but its still a chance.
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Well it depends ramper on wether you were happy to pony up the high juice to take chicago on game 2 of the chase. If you wanted to then you would be wagering around 40% of your bank on that game if you were risking 5% on game 1. Also if im not wrong Houston still has a chance to make the playoffs, not a big chance but its still a chance.
I did some backtesting. the thing I see with nba is that the odds for favored can be real high on the money line especially on C bets and thier are C bet losses too. in my opinion it's not worth it too play it.
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Quote Originally Posted by jv040:
did you backtest ? what are the results?
I did some backtesting. the thing I see with nba is that the odds for favored can be real high on the money line especially on C bets and thier are C bet losses too. in my opinion it's not worth it too play it.
Thats true however you need to apply a couple of filters and it seems to decrease the losses, also I think its best to just take the spread regardless of wether the team is fav or not. The next thing you have to be careful with is your bankroll.
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Thats true however you need to apply a couple of filters and it seems to decrease the losses, also I think its best to just take the spread regardless of wether the team is fav or not. The next thing you have to be careful with is your bankroll.
Would someone be interested in backtesting the NFL system including the teams that were not playoff contentions towards the end? I would like to see if we are missing out on extra cash by not including them.
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Would someone be interested in backtesting the NFL system including the teams that were not playoff contentions towards the end? I would like to see if we are missing out on extra cash by not including them.
good win with houston, and if you played New England ML, congrats on that too.
Week 15 plays: Kansas City
Week 15 modified: Dallas (pending)
no new series can begin after week 15, so i am going to play the Kansas City series as my last series of the season (maybe Dallas if they lose to SD today). congrats on a good season everyone, hopefully you made some money.
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good win with houston, and if you played New England ML, congrats on that too.
Week 15 plays: Kansas City
Week 15 modified: Dallas (pending)
no new series can begin after week 15, so i am going to play the Kansas City series as my last series of the season (maybe Dallas if they lose to SD today). congrats on a good season everyone, hopefully you made some money.
Yep good ML win plays today as always and your Mod System has been a jewel. I hate to see it come to an end, but will be looking for you in the future.
Glad to see you didnt mention PIT for week 15...I hope you really didnt play em Thurs, but if you did Im sure you recovered it already.
Thanks for your positive influences, which can go a long way in this business...r
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on3...
Thanks for keeping the thread going...
Yep good ML win plays today as always and your Mod System has been a jewel. I hate to see it come to an end, but will be looking for you in the future.
Glad to see you didnt mention PIT for week 15...I hope you really didnt play em Thurs, but if you did Im sure you recovered it already.
Thanks for your positive influences, which can go a long way in this business...r
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