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JM NFL System

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Posted: #226
Potential JM plays for week 4.  All teams are 0-2 SU and ATS.  Each team will need to lose in week 3 SU and ATS to be considered a play for week 4.

Miami
Seattle
Indianapolis
Kansas City

St. Louis vs NY Giants pending...
 
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Posted: #227
Quote Originally Posted by skew8:


Hey Reality, you going to follow the JM system?  I'm somewhat keeping record of the SU and ATS losses.

It's supposed to be good, the downfall is waiting 3 or 4 weeks for a play.

 
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Posted: #228
Plays for Week 4

St Louis
Miami

Potential plays for week 5

Chicago
Jacksonville
Philadelphia

 
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Posted: #229
How many games is the chase for?
 
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Posted: #230
3 game chase.  I'm including Miami since the line closed with them being a 1.5 favorite.
 
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Posted: #231
Better hurry and get on Miami.  The line opened at +9 and has dropped to +7.5!  St. Louis is a pick'em and I think this line will move to them being a dog.

Stay tuned!
 
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Posted: #232
Quote Originally Posted by Firebird27:

Better hurry and get on Miami.  The line opened at +9 and has dropped to +7.5!  St. Louis is a pick'em and I think this line will move to them being a dog.

Stay tuned!


Thanks for posting the plays Firebird
 
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Posted: #233
glad to see someone running this system this year. i ran it last year, so cheers to whoever is posting the plays this year. i am running my thread over here: https://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/1189896-2011-nfl-system-jm-modified.html if anyone is interested in joining the discussion.
 
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Posted: #234
Plays for week 5...

Jacksonville (A)
Philadelphia (A)

Plays for week 6...

St. Louis (B) - On a bye week 5
Miami (B) - On a bye week 5

Potential plays for week 6...

Arizona




 
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Posted: #235
What about the Jets?
 
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Posted: #236
Jets are on a two-game losing streak SU and ATS.
 
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Posted: #237

Wouldn't Minny be in it as well if they lose this week?  They went loss, push, loss.  The push, I thought, just moves it to the next week. 

 
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Posted: #238
Quote Originally Posted by pinballwizard:

Jets are on a two-game losing streak SU and ATS.


That is a different system.  That system is loser of 2 SUATS and >=.500

I don't play that system and therefore am not posting those plays.  Feel free to post those plays for that system on this thread if you like.
 
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Posted: #239
Quote Originally Posted by amherstny1974:

Wouldn't Minny be in it as well if they lose this week?  They went loss, push, loss.  The push, I thought, just moves it to the next week. 



I don't factor that "push" filter into the system.  I am posting the plays of the original JM 3 game Chase System that begins when a team loses 3 SUATS and has not been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. 
 
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Posted: #240
An update on this week's plays...

Jacksonville (A)
Philadelphia (A)

At this posting, both teams are short favorites.  Per the system rules, both plays are on the money line.
 
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Posted: #241
Update on the plays...

Plays for Week 5

Jacksonville (A)
Philadelphia (A)

Plays for Week 6

Miami (B)
St Louis (B)

Potential Plays for Week 6 - Loss 2 SUATS

Arizona
NY Jets

Potential Plays for Week 7 - Loss 1 SUATS

dallas
buffalo
cleveland
minnesota
oakland
denver
pittsburgh


 
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Posted: #242
The system is off to a slow start with 4 straight (A) losers...

Plays for Week 6

NY Jets (A)
Jacksonville (B)
Philadelphia (B)
Miami (B)
St Louis (B)

With Miami and NY Jets playing against each other, I'm not sure which play is the correct one.  Does anyone get the emails from JM?

Plays for Week 7

Arizona (A)

Potential Plays for Week 8 - Loss 2 SUATS

Denver

Potential Plays for Week 8 - Loss 1 SUATS

Cleveland
Dallas
Houston
Indianapolis

Potential Plays for Week 9 - Loss 1 SUATS

NY Giants
Tampa Bay
Tennessee

Sunday Night and Monday Night Games Pending...
 
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Posted: #243
The same situation happened 2 years ago between the Browns and the Lions.  The Lions were favored by 3.5 at home.  We took the Lions on the money line, and the browns +3.5.  The Lions ended up winning by one on the last play of the game so we won both bets.  If that was the correct way to do it, we would take the Jets on the ML and the Dolphins +9 or whatever it is on gameday.
 
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Posted: #244
Updated Posted plays...

Plays for Week 6

NY Jets (A)
Jacksonville (B)
Miami (B)
Philadelphia (B)
St Louis (B)

Plays for Week 7

Arizona (A)

Potential Plays for Week 8 - Loss 2 SUATS

Denver

Potential Plays for Week 8 - Loss 1 SUATS

Cleveland
Dallas
Houston
Indianapolis

Potential Plays for Week 9 - Loss 1 SUATS

Chicago
NY Giants
Tampa Bay
Tennessee
 
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Posted: #245
 
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Posted: #246
Gents...

The (A) play on the Jets is the ML this week and my book it's set at -310!  I'm going pass on this play... BOL!
 
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Posted: #247
 
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Posted: #248
miami is a play? covers and scoresandodds dont have miami as a play. where are you getting that line from? you gotta go with atleast listed closing lines...keeps backtracking true to its form.
 
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Posted: #249
Quote Originally Posted by SpamBurger:

miami is a play? covers and scoresandodds dont have miami as a play. where are you getting that line from? you gotta go with atleast listed closing lines...keeps backtracking true to its form.


JM uses the closing lines from the website below per his documentation.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/teams/team-page.cfm/team/dolphins

4 SUATS losses to open the season.  Miami will be a C play next week.
 
 
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Posted: #250
Updated Posted plays...

Plays for Week 7

St Louis (C)
Miami (C)
Arizona (A)

Potential Plays for Week 8 - Loss 2 SUATS

Cleveland
Denver
Houston
Indianapolis

Potential Plays for Week 9 - Loss 1 SUATS

Chicago
Tennessee
New Orleans
Washington

Potential Plays for Week 10 - Loss 1 SUATS

Carolina
Detroit

I've back tested this system with closing lines going back to 2001 from Marc Lawrence's  2011 Playbook.com Football handicappers yearbook.  Below are the teams that have lost 6 SUATS that would have been JM system losses:

2002 Arizona
2003 Atlanta
2003 NYG
2004 Cleveland
2004 NYG
2005 Oakland
2009 Tennessee




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